2011 State Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Most recent Hamburg poll from November 12:

SPD 40%
CDU 35%   
Greens 12%
The Left 6%
FDP 4%

Most likely outcome at this point: SPD/Green coalition headed by former labour minister Olaf Scholz (SPD).

[Middle-aged Europe]

2011 will be a more intresting year than 2010. We will see  6 elections for State Parlaments.

Here are the Dates (and the current Government)

20 March 2011 Saxony-Anhalt  (CDU/SPD)
27 March 2011 Baden-Württemberg  (CDU/FDP)
27 March 2011 Rhineland-Palatine  (SPD)
22 May 2011 Bremen  (SPD/Greens)
18 September 2011 Berlin  (SPD/Left)
Autumn 2011 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern  (SPD/CDU)

Hamburg early election is most likely gonna happen on February 20, therefore it will be the first election next year. Mecklenburg probably votes on September 4, that's not set yet either.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What about Schleswig-Holstein ?

Will they vote in 2011 or 2012 now after the court ruling ?

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

September 2012 at the latest.

-------------------------------------------

First post-coalition breakup poll for Hamburg (FGW):

SPD 41%
CDU 22%
Greens 21%
Left 7%
FDP 4%
Others 5%

[Middle-aged Europe]

When has the SPD EVER formed a coalition with the CDU when they could get a majority just with the Greens?

Bremen, 1995-2007.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I happen to live in Berlin now and I'm proud to say that I'm going to be one of the 16% who will vote Green next year.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Whereabouts?

Mitte, Mitte. Pretty much between Alexanderplatz and Potsdamer Platz.

I like to say that it must be one of the cheapest houses in one of the more expensive areas of Berlin (then again, it's still a Plattenbau).

The results of the 2009 election in my precinct:
The Left 38.0% (+3.0%)
SPD 17.9% (-17.6%)
CDU 13.8% (+3.7%)
Greens 13.2% (+4.1%)
FDP 7.2% (+2.2%)
Pirate Party 4.3% (+4.3%)
NPD 2.9% (+0.7%)

[Middle-aged Europe]

I previously lived in Wedding, what a sh!thole. Not only are the Turks and Arabs scum, the same applies to the home-grown Germans as well. But at least I got harassed there only once... by a German, not a Turk. Any Turk with some self-respect lives in Kreuzberg anyway.

Where I live now is certainly the better part of East Berlin. Maybe a little boring though... despite the fact that I have the provisional BND headquarters up my street (until their new big-ass HQ is finished in Berlin). But nothing noticable is happening there and you can't get in there   .

Mitte is certainly perfect when you hate to commute. And that really comes in handy at a time like this when the second Ice Age has started.

[Middle-aged Europe]

  5.5% BIW ("Citizenz with a lot of wrath")

I'd translate it with "Citizens in Rage" myself.

This party getting more than 5% would enrage me btw. Someone has to absorb the DVU votes though, I guess.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Bavaria state elections poll by Emnid for the "Bild":

45% (+2) CSU
18%  (-1) SPD
16% (+7) Greens
  6%  (-4) FW
  5% (+1) Left
  5%  (-3) FDP
  5%  (-2) Others

That's just the "Guttenberg-effect". If the elections are today and the CSU-candidate would be Seehofer, the CSU would have difficulties to get 40%.

Strictly speaking, the CSU was at 45% in almost any poll since the 2008 state election. The sole exception was a January 2010 poll from Infratest where the CSU was at 41%.

There was a lot of movement for the Greens, FDP, and Free Voters in the past two years though.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm

[Middle-aged Europe]

I dunno about the exact numbers...but I'll tell you why I very strongly approve of Guttenberg: He's a pragmatic, independent thinker willing to challenge conventional wisdom in the party (Wehrpflicht). Everyone knows he's right, but the CDU, in that particular case, supported it for no other reason than tradition. Can you imagine anything like the current reforms under Jung?

Exceeding Franz Josef Jung isn't that hard of a task though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today: An overview over the lead candidates for this year's state elections.

(note: I only included parties which currently poll above 10% in the respective state, therefore there's a fair chance that these people will either become prime minister, deputy PM or the next opposition leader - this comes down to CDU/SPD/Greens in Western and CDU/SPD/Left in Eastern states btw)


Hamburg (February 20)

- Olaf Scholz (SPD), age: 52, former federal minister of labour
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olaf_Scholz

- Christoph Ahlhaus (CDU), age: 41, mayor since August 2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christoph_Ahlhaus

- Anja Hajduk (Greens), age: 47, former state minister of city development
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anja_Hajduk


Saxony-Anhalt (March 20)

- Reiner Haseloff (CDU), age: 56, state minister of economy
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reiner_Haseloff

- Wulf Gallert (Left), age: 47, leader of the Left caucus in the state parliament
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wulf_Gallert

- Jens Bullerjahn (SPD), age: 48, state minister of finance
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jens_Bullerjahn


Baden-Württemberg (March 27)

- Stefan Mappus (CDU), age: 44, minister-president since February 2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Mappus

- Winfried Kretschmann (Greens), age: 62, leader of the Green caucus in the state parliament
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winfried_Kretschmann

- Nils Schmid (SPD), age: 37, SPD state chairman
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nils_Schmid


Rhineland-Palatinate (March 27)

- Kurt Beck (SPD), age: 61, minister-president since 1994 (currently Germany's longest-serving state PM)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Beck

- Julia Klöckner (CDU), age: 38, secretary of state in the federal ministry of agriculture
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Kl%C3%B6ckner

- Daniel Köbler (Greens), age: 29, Green state chairman
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_K%C3%B6bler

- Eveline Lemke (Greens), age: 46, Green state chairwoman
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eveline_Lemke


Bremen (May 22)

- Jens Böhrnsen (SPD), age: 61, mayor since 2005 (also former acting president of Germany )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jens_B%C3%B6hrnsen

- Rita Mohr-Lüllmann (CDU), age: 53, CDU deputy state chairwoman
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rita_Mohr-L%C3%BCllmann

- Karoline Linnert (Greens), age: 52, state minister of finance
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karoline_Linnert


Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (September 4)

- Erwin Sellering (SPD), age: 61, minister-president since 2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erwin_Sellering

- Lorenz Caffier (CDU), age: 56, state minister of interior
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorenz_Caffier

- Helmut Holter (Left), age: 57, leader of the Left caucus in the state parliament / former state minister of labour
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmut_Holter


Berlin (September 18)

- Klaus Wowereit (SPD), age: 57, mayor since 2001
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Wowereit

- Renate Künast (Greens), age: 55, leader of the Green caucus in the German Bundestag / former federal minister of agriculture
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renate_K%C3%BCnast

- Frank Henkel (CDU), age: 47, CDU state chairman
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Henkel

- Harald Wolf (Left), age: 54, state minister of economy
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Wolf

[Middle-aged Europe]

A major newspaper dedicated some pages to the 'crucial year for Angela Merkel's coalition' and said that appart from the obvious implications in the Bundesrat it would also be vital in the run-up to next year's Federal election. How difficult can it be to fact-check something that big??

For all we know, if those state elections turn out to be a total disaster for Merkel there could be federal elections this year.   But I see what you mean.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Northrhine-Westphalia's supplementary budget was ruled unconstitutional yesterday. CDU is calling for early elections, while the FDP is making demands for joining the SPD/Green minority coalition (well, they would get crushed in early elections right now). We'll see what happens. That is if something happens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, technically it hasn't been ruled unconstitutional... yet. However, the court has imposed an injunction which orders the state government to put the supplementary budget on hold, until the court can rule on it. It's still a major blow, because for the time being they can't use the money (or strictly speaking, make more debt).


For more information:

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http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14773743,00.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

What we really need is a Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll, since the last one is from May 2009.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today you get what you asked for !

Hooray!

The NPD @ 5% at this point probably means that they will enter state parliament again.

Yeah, it's Mecklenburg-Vorpommern after all.


I'm actually surprised that the FDP is gonna make it past 5% again as well. I mean they were polled at 4% in their stronghold Baden-Württemberg in December.

Seems to me that Erwin Sellering is gonna have the options of continuing the Grand coalition or doing SPD/Left/Greens (maybe SPD/Left if either the SPD or the Left gets a bit stronger than that).

(Trivia: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is the only German state where the Greens never managed to enter the state parliament so far.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another poll in Hamburg, this time by Infratest Dimap:

46% SPD
25% CDU
14% Greens
  6% Left
  5% FDP
  
No majority for SPD. I doubt if FDP will get 5% of the vote though.  They only had 4.8% in 2008 and they were generally doing better in the polls at that time.

I'd say the Greens will manage to get into the state government if the FDP manages to get into the state parliament (without the FDP in parliament it could come down to an absolute majortiy for SPD).

Now does that mean that Green supporters are going to vote FDP for tactical reasons or would they rather cut their hands off?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg has changed its election law again. There's now open lists and five votes per voter for the statewide equalizing seats as well as the 3-5 member constituencies.
According to election.de, while Forschungsgruppe Wahlen asks people expressly how many of the citywide list votes they want to give to which parties, other pollsters active in the city weren't even aware of the law.

Bremen too has introduced open lists and five votes apiece from the next election on, btw (but still only two constituencies with fixed numbers of seats, ie the two cities.)

In that case, it's interesting to note that Forschungsgruppe Wahlen is the only pollster which has polled the Greens above 20% in Hamburg so far.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today's the Berlin referendum on the public disclosure of the state's water privatization treaties.

Potentially pointless though. After the petition had reached the sufficient number of signatures late last year, the state government has already made most of those treaties public. Also, the draft which people are supposed to vote on now could perhaps contain an unconstitutional section (if it turns out that some of the treaties were not made public they're automatically declared null and void).

Greens support the referendum, everyone else is against it, I think (SPD and Left as governing parties anyway).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Correction: Apparently, the petition/referendum is supported by the Green state party, a couple of Left Party district chapters (from West Berlin only, not East Berlin), a single SPD district chapter (Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg), the Pirate party, and the German Communist Party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The state election officer of Berlin estimates a turnout of 28%, this means that the required quorum of 25% will probably be reached. This also means that 90% "yes" votes are necessary for the referendum to pass.

[Middle-aged Europe]

92.4% of votes counted.

Turnout: 26.7%
Yes votes: 98.1%

Unless the turnout drops during the counting of the remaining votes it seems like the referendum has passed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sachsen-Anhalt State Elections (Infratest dimap):

32% CDU
26% Left
23% SPD
  7% Greens
  5% FDP
  4% NPD
  3% Others

Oh great, another state where we gonna throw tax-payers' money at the Nazis soon.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Can anybody please explain to me the new Hamburg election law ?

It seems complicated because the first exit polls are out 2 hours after the polls have closed ...

In detail: http://www.wahlrecht.de/landtage/hamburg.htm

Short version: You have five party list votes and five constituency candidate votes. As always, seat allocation is determined by how many list votes a party receives. You may distribute your votes as you see fit (all five party list votes for the same party, or three for one party and two for another, or a vote for five different parties each etc.).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Can anybody please explain to me the new Hamburg election law ?

It seems complicated because the first exit polls are out 2 hours after the polls have closed ...

In detail: http://www.wahlrecht.de/landtage/hamburg.htm

Short version: You have five party list votes and five constituency candidate votes. As always, seat allocation is determined by how many list votes a party receives. You may distribute your votes as you see fit (all five party list votes for the same party, or three for one party and two for another, or a vote for five different parties each etc.).

Hmm, interesting. That means we should have citywide vote results in about 1 week ?

Will we already know how many seats each party will get sometime tonight ?

According to this announcement http://www.statistik-nord.de/wahlen2011 preliminary official results regarding the seat distribution are expected around midnight today.