2011 State Elections in Germany

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I know that the CDU-FDP bond is not as strong as the bonds between the Alliance parties in Sweden, or the Red-Green parties, but would it be unreasonable to think that there might be some "comrade 5%" tactical voting from CDU supporters if the FDP were still at risk of being kicked out of the Bundestag come the next general election? That saved the Christian Democrats here in 2010 and 1994, the Greens in 2002, and the Left Party to many times to count. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Well the Greens overtaking the SDP is a good thing at least.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

A Green chancellor? Eugh.

Speaking of that, who is most likely to become Chancellor in case the Greens are indeed the biggest goverment party after the next election Roth or Özdemir?  

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I wouldn't be so sure that if the SDP is actually behind the Greens they will get back above them. Social Democratic Labour parties are having a horrible time all over Europe, the industrial union workers they were created for are on decline in the first world countries. They've managed to stay relevant by trying to make themselves more attractive to middle-class by adoping third-way centrism, but in the long run trying to be a lighter and softer copy of your opponent aren't going to cut it. Green parties are on the rise and are able to connect with young succesfull middle-class electorate in a way the Social Democratic parties can't. Look at Germany, look at Sweden.

I think Green parties will eventually replace Social Democrtic parties as the main left-wing movement in many European Countries, starting in Germany. If it'll be next election or the elecetion after that, who knows, but I believe it'll happen.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

FDP 53/76
CDU 52/76
SDP 47/76
Piraten 41/76
Die Linke 40/76
NPD 38/76
Grüne 35/76

Wow really surprised the Greens were the lowest. Even below Die Linke.

Dead heat between FDP and CDU

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Ah the Pirate Party, gotta love it. My favourite  one-issue party. Let's hope they're not a one-election wonder as they were in Sweden.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

When we look at the Exit Polls, I think the Linke is slowly disappearing.

I wouldn't get my hopes up though, they're probably just in a bad phase. As long as the major centre-left party stays somewhat moderate there will always be far-lefters who want a more radical option, so they'll likly survive in some form.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

SPD-Greens are within 6 points of the CSU? Wow.

Yes. And if this is happening in Bavaria....God.

The political equivalent to the Grits winning in Alberta? A Tory becoming the First Minister of Scotland?

A self-proclaimed Thatcherite becoming mayor of Liverpool

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It's not that the Pirates wouldn't want to be part of government as much as the SDP-Greens never would accept them into government. Besides if you're a small one-issue party it's much more effective to hold the balance of power between two government options. The Danish People's Party has had more influence on immigration than the FPÖ in Austria, even though FPÖ has been in government, the DPP has not.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I also strongly doubt the Pirates will actually win seats in the next federal elections. Things like these are fads.

I really hope you are right.

In Sweden they managed to spurt up to 7% in the EU-election in '09 and then disappeared completly out of sight before the General Election a year later. I wouldn't worry too much.