2011 State Elections in Germany

[republicanism]

If, say, the SPD and Greens had the right numbers, would it be possible for them to form a minority government that relies on support from the Left like the one in NRW?

I'd say, the odds are like zero for something like that. Minority governments have no tradition in Germany. And the SPD has been in a coalition with both the CDU as the Leftist Party, and is most likely that we will form a government with one of them after the next elections.

[republicanism]

FTR, what are the chances that Die Linke and the CDU would ever, EVER, sit together without either SPD or Greens?

That already happens on the local level in East Germany. Quite often in fact.
On the state level it is still no option for both sides. Today. 30 years from now, in some East German state, who knows...

[republicanism]

One other reason may be that many older CDU-guys and Leftist Party-guys still know each other very well from before 1989, you know...

Oh, and thanks Lewis :-)

[republicanism]

The FDP will survive. They have been deep down in the polls several times in their history. In the late 1990s they polled no better than 2-3% for years.
There are enough affluent Germans that still feel to highly taxed (what is ridiculous) and still believe that submit to the divine order of the free market is the way to go.
I see them crash down to 6% or so in the 2013 elections, but no less. And if they are still close to the treshold in polling on election day, they will probably receive votes from the CDU camp like they did in the past.


The Leftist Party on the other hand has the problem of slowly dying out. I mean that's a problem all parties except the Greens share, but with the Leftist Party it is dramatically. In the East their average age is like 68 or so.
They will survive at a relevant political power if the disadvantaged East German youth continues the voting traditions of their parents and grandparents. If they don't the party has a mayor problem.

Well, today I have to say I hope they survive, get rid of the fundies and become a reasonable left-social democratic party concentrated on the East, with which we could work as well everywhere as we do in Berlin today.

Since the Greens become more and more bourgeois every day, we have to look out for alternatives.

[republicanism]

Does the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition still have a majority in Germany's upper chamber as of August 2011?

No, they've lost their majority in the Bundesrat with the election in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia in May 2010. From that on they at least had to win over the Greens, who were in coalition with CDU in Hamburg (in March 2011 SPD won an outright majority there) and with CDU and FDP in the state of Saarland (that three-party-government still exists).

And since the Coalition lost both Hamburg and Baden-Württemberg to the Red-Green camp in March, the SPD now is in the position - theoretically - to obstruct all law which has to go through the Bundesrat.

[republicanism]

Wow. So it looks like the SPD/Greens are on track to win the 2013 elections?

Way to early to say.

Any reason why Germany is moving left recently compared to itself from 2005 or all the other countries in Europe lately?

Actually, most of what the center-left has gained since the 2009 elections is due to a a very strong, strange and hyperbolic trend towards the Greens.
A trend, by the way, that in that dimension I do not buy.
There is no chance Greens get 20% or even more in a federal election in Germany. But they may have a real shot for 15-17%, which would still be an incredible result.

Greenies somehow managed to become a collective pool for disaffected voters both from the center-right and the center-left. And they all feel quite comfortable with voting Green (or at least telling the pollsters to do so), methinks.
The true, old Green core base is not really that happy about this trend, btw.

The SPD on the other hand, though still in very bad shape, slowly recovers from the disaster of 2009, and seems to win back a bit of it's base that didn't vote in 2009. And a bit from the Leftist party i guess.
That's normalization mostly, because as run-down as the party may be, we still do better than 23% in a normal year.

[republicanism]

New poll for Berlin, by Infratest dimap. In brackets the change from the last Infratest dimap poll that was held in July.

SPD 31 (+2)
CDU 22 (-1)
Green 22 (-2)
Left 12 (-2)
FDP 4 (+1)
Others 9 (+2) --> among them the Pirates Party with 3%

Government (SPD, Left): 43 (--)
Opposition (CDU, Greens): 44 (-3)


In general a positive trend for major Klaus Wowereit and his government.

[republicanism]

I suppose that one reason why the SPD might prefer a coalition with the Left party (if that is still an option) is that the Left party is so much weaker than the Greens. In a Red/Red coalition, the SPD could probably grab three-quarters of the cabinet seats. In a Red/Green government, the Greens would probably demand and expect close to half of the portfolios.

Right. Also, the Leftist party was very disciplined and loyal in the last 10 years and almost blindly supported the SPD politics. One of the more left-wing SPD politics in the Republic, though.

The Berlin Greens on the other hand have near to no government experience at all, and if they really get a result as good as predicted, will go into negotiations with high expectations.

Especially when it comes to transport policy, infrastructure, basically everything there things have to be build, the Greenies get angry, while the Leftist party doesn't care to much as it has its focus on other policies.

[republicanism]

So hopefully six month from now, my home state will be red again.
Well, red and green, with way to much green for my taste. But if the nationwide trend holds, the Greens will be down to 15% or so by then, and SPD up to 35%.

[republicanism]

? Nobody sued than the law was clearly unfair because it gives a party an advantage over the other ones?

No, since this law is based on an Danish-German agreement on protection on minorities.

There is an equivalent on the Danish side, called "Schleswigsche Partei", that represents the German minoprity and enjoys the same privileges. Since there are much less self-identified Germans on the Danish side than Danish on the German side, that party is completely irrelevant except for local elections in a few Danish municipalities near the border.

But during the last years, CDU and FDP in Schleswig-Holstein actually get a bit grumpy from time to time, because Germans who have no connections to Denmark at all are increasingly voting for the SSW. In the state elections 2009, the SSW gained about 70.000 votes, while there are less then 20.000 Danish speakers in all of Schleswig-Holstein. The SSW even got 2-3% of the vote in the South and East of Schleswig-Holstein, and there you find not more Danish speakers than in, say, Bavaria. It has become "hip" to vote for the SSW among some people, as they usually take a moderate stand and focus on local and regional issues.
 
And as the SSW is, at least on the state level (not so much on the local level), a loyal auxiliary for the center-left, i.e. SPD and Greens, it is in fact kind of unfair, from a center-right perspective.

But the law won't be changed in the near future.

[republicanism]

CDU/FDP: 36%
SPD/Green: 49% (SPD/Green/Left: 57%)

I think it's pretty clear at this point (as I've said before) that this government will never be popular again.

You remember 1999? SPD/Green 35, CDU/CSU/FDP 50, through most of the year. And now remember who was - narrowly - reelected in 2002.

[republicanism]

What's the order of left-right of the German political parties? Are the Greens more leftwing than the SPD and is the FDP more left-wing than the CDU?

I've always had this view that it was something like (most left to most right) of: The Left, Greens, SPD, FDP, CDU.

I'd put it that way:

Foreign policy: CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, Greens (huge majority) = pro-NATO, interventionist <-----> Left and very few Greenies = anti-NATO, pacifist

Economics: FDP, CDU/CSU (neoliberal wing) = market liberalism <-----> CDU/CSU (center and left), SPD (rightwing), Greens (rightwing) = unimpassioned day-to-day "pragmatism" <----> SPD (leftwing), Greens (leftwing), Left = Social democracy / Democratic socialism

Environment: FDP, CDU/CSU, SPD (industrial unions and right wing) = jobs / economy first <----> SPD ("new left" wing), Greens, Left = environment first

Law & Order / Civil liberties: CDU/CSU, SPD (right) = security first <----> FDP (right wing), SPD (center and "old left") = Don't care very much <----> FDP (left wing), SPD (new left), Greens, Left = liberty first

Cultural issues / immigration etc: CDU/CSU (right) = staunch conservative <----> CDU/CSU (center and left), FDP, SPD (right, "old left") = indifferent or moderate <----> SPD ("new left"), Greens, Left = very progressive


Huge simplification, of course. Especially with the Left party it is difficult. In the East they often act mainly as a regionalist party. Which means for example that they usually support lignite open cast mining in the East (as does the SPD, while the Greens oppose it).

And of course I'm only talking about the representatives of each party in the political class. For the voters, it would be much more difficult.

[republicanism]

Well, the Greens were actually founded by ex-communists (many of them former Maoists, actually)

And to be even more accurate, most of them were member of one particular Maoist organization, the Kommunistischer Bund (KB).
Though I wouldn't go so far to say that they "found" the Greens. The Maoists were one of three or four important groups during the party building process.

[republicanism]

The problem, basically, is that the Wahlomat doesn't weight questions by how much importance the parties attach to them.
This is also why a Green-Left tie is the usual result for typical Green voters.

And why it is so hard to get the Nazis where they belong - at the bottom.


Mine is as usual

SPD/Linkspartei close to each other on the top
Pirates
Greens

huge gap

NPD
CDU
FDP

[republicanism]

I really do hope the Pirates get into the Senate. It would certainly satisfy my primary reason for paying attention to Berlin: amusement.

For God's sake no!

The media just ended their "Woohoo, the Greens are the coolest party in the world!"-bullsh**t, I don't need it replaced by a "Hey, look at this new funny little party in Berlin!"-bullsh**t.

[republicanism]

I'd very much enjoy watching red-red attempt to get the Pirates on board for governing

In that case, Wowereit would do Red-Green without hesitation anyway.

[republicanism]

i would like a pirate - green - fdp coalition.

The wet dream of rich urban kids?

;-)

[republicanism]

A nice result for my party, we are really building a phalanx of popular state governments in the North.
Sellering won't do Red-Green with a majority of only one seat, while a tame CDU and a relatively moderate Leftist Party with government experience stand aside a (more or less attractive) choices.

The drop of bitterness is the Nazis' result, of course. Not unexpected though.

[republicanism]

The results on the Polish border (Uecker-Randow and East Lower Pomerania) really stick out.

Of course, those districts are history as of today.

Pomerania. We maintain our traditions. Heartland of the Reaction since... ever.

[republicanism]

On the list vote, the SPD actually in the lead in 32/35 constituencies. Even in Lower Pomerania, where the CDU candidates are save.

[republicanism]

Some trivia on the Meckpomm election (list vote only):

Rostock III (where the Uni is situated iirc) is the "hippest" constituency:

SPD 32,7
Greens 19,1 (best result statewide)
Leftist 18,0
CDU 17,0
FDP 2,5
NPD 2,8 (worst result statewide)
Pirates 4,8 (best result statewide)

Neighbouring Rostock II (Plattenbau mostly) is the least hippest of the Rostock constituencies:

SPD 38,2
Lipa 26,8 (best result statewide)
CDU 13,4 (worst result statewide)
Grüne 8,6 (worst result in Rostock)
NPD 5,0
FDP 1,6 (worst result statewide)
Pirates 2,8

- The Leftist Party is ahead of the CDU in seven constituencies, all of them urban* (all Rostock constituencies, Wismar, one in Schwerin and one in Neubrandenburg).

- The Greens are on second place in one constituency, the Rostock III mentioned above. No where else did they even manage to get to the third place.

- The FDP couldn't get ahead of Greens or NPD in any constituency. In six urban constituencies, (three in Rostock, Greifswald, Neubrandenburg II and Stralsund II) the FDP trails the Pirates, in Uecker-Randow I the Free Voters are ahead of the FDP.

- The NPD is ahead of the Greens in 11 of the 35 constituencies, alll of them rural and mostly in Lower Pomerania. In both Uecker-Randow constituencies and both East Lower Pomerania constituencies, they are in double digit range.

- The Pirates are ahead of the NPD in Rostock III and Rostock IV.


*If I say "urban", that means urban by Mecklenburg-Vorpommern standarts. Rostock is the only big city with about 200.000, Schwerin has about 100.000, and Neubrandenburg, Wismar, Stralsund and Greifswald lie between 65.000 and 45.000.

[republicanism]

Very nice.

The small dot of bright red northwest of the two Neubrandenburg constituencies shouldn't be there though.

[republicanism]

Very nice.

The small dot of bright red northwest of the two Neubrandenburg constituencies shouldn't be there though.

You sure? From the base map it looks to be part of Mecklenburg-Strelitz I.

Looking at this

http://service.mvnet.de/cgi-bin/wahlen/2006_land/txt_wahlen_2006_ergebnis_karte_end.pl

official map I understand why you think so. No idea why they draw it that weird.

But the wikipedia says that Mecklenburg-Strelitz I consists of only four divisions, which form one compact area in the south.

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahlkreis_Mecklenburg-Strelitz_I

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neustrelitz
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feldberger_Seenlandschaft
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amt_Mecklenburgische_Kleinseenplatte
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amt_Neustrelitz-Land

This map has it the same:

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showcandres_mv11.pl?land=mv11

[republicanism]

Wouldn't such a FDP seat just be treated like a usual overhang mandate?

[republicanism]

Any reason why Pomerania is so conservative?

It is rural, with no cities or industry. Historically it was an area of large-scale land property, ruled by the landlords, and that basically until 1945. It is now one of the poorest and most sparsely populated areas in Germany, that more or less looses half its youth every year.

The current difference in voting patterns between Mecklenburg and (Lower) Pomerania is known since the Weimar years by the way, when Mecklenburg was one of the strongest SPD states in the Republic, while Pomerania was conservative as ever.

But thats just what the roots are.
I'm afraid I can't give you a good answer why the CDU managed to tie in with this traditions after 40 years of Realsozialismus. May be others can. Lewis?