GOP house gains in 2012?

[redcommander]

When a party gains 60+ seats in one election, it is difficult to make further gains the next cycle, but do Republicans have a chance of solidifying their majority in the house with further gains in 2012?

[Keystone Phil]

Redistricting will help.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Depends almost entirely on how redistricting goes.


I would think the GOP loses between 5 and 10 seats.

[memphis]

Doubt it. They don't have too many other places to go. Meanwhile the Dems are going to have a higher turnout against the Christine ODonnell/Sarah Palin/Sharron Angle nutter type candidate who the GOP will certainly nominate for prez. The GOP has got to force these goons to sit down and be quiet if they hope to have a respectable performance.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

[Vepres]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

[Keystone Phil]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

That's what I was thinking though we really won't be gaining many more.

[Keystone Phil]

the Christine ODonnell/Sarah Palin/Sharron Angle nutter type

memphis, NOW is on line one for you.   

[Landslide Lyndon]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

Maine will redistrict after 2012 when probably the Dems will reclaim the legislature.

The Republicans will have to be careful with North Carolina because the Obama DOJ can toss out any map that they consider violates the VRA.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

Maine will redistrict after 2012 when probably the Dems will reclaim the legislature.

The Republicans will have to be careful with North Carolina because the Obama DOJ can toss out any map that they consider violates the VRA.

I don't know if the Governor has a say or not, but we still have "Status Quo Bev"(D) till 2013.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Depends how the map is changed by redistricting, doesn't it. But I think Matheson will be in some trouble, regardless.

[Mr.Phips]

No.  There are too many Republicans in normally Democratic seats and only a couple Democrats left in hostile districts.  The best Republicans can hope for is probably a loss of just five or ten seats. 

[Mr.Phips]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

Its going to be difficult to strengthen their people in Pennsylvania much because they won so many seats.  The situation is even worse in Ohio, where Republicans are probably going to have to cut at least one of their new members and maybe even two. 

[Keystone Phil]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

Its going to be difficult to strengthen their people in Pennsylvania much because they won so many seats.  The situation is even worse in Ohio, where Republicans are probably going to have to cut at least one of their new members and maybe even two. 

We could get Holden's and Critz is likely to be eliminated by redistricting.

[Sbane]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

Its going to be difficult to strengthen their people in Pennsylvania much because they won so many seats.  The situation is even worse in Ohio, where Republicans are probably going to have to cut at least one of their new members and maybe even two. 

We could get Holden's and Critz is likely to be eliminated by redistricting.

Wouldn't it be a better idea to make Holden safe and try to shore up all the other Republicans in east PA? And Schwartz's district will likely be packed with Democrats as well I am guessing.

[Mr.Phips]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

Its going to be difficult to strengthen their people in Pennsylvania much because they won so many seats.  The situation is even worse in Ohio, where Republicans are probably going to have to cut at least one of their new members and maybe even two. 

We could get Holden's and Critz is likely to be eliminated by redistricting.

You could get Critz's, but Holden would likely win anything with Schuykill or Dauphin in it. 

[Keystone Phil]

Wouldn't it be a better idea to make Holden safe and try to shore up all the other Republicans in east PA?

I guess they could give some of the more Republican areas on the edge of the 17th to other Republicans (especially Barletta).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And Maine doesn't redistrict till after 2012. And making ME-02 more Republican is rather tricky anyway as ME-01 doesn't have any notable GOP strongholds in it.

[J. J.]

First, I'd expect a 5-10 seat GOP net gain from redistricting.  In other words, if the results were exactly the same as today,  I'd expect 248+ GOP House seats.

It would be possible that this might account for a minor GOP pickup.

Second, we don't know how popular Obama will be

[Meeker]

The GOP will almost assuredly "gain" some seats on the national scale because of redistricting. For instance, when Critz in Pennsylvania is eliminated in redistricting and then the GOP wins one of the newly created seats in Texas, they'll have net gained a seat from the Democrats even though it wasn't a direct pick-up.

[Mr.Phips]

First, I'd expect a 5-10 seat GOP net gain from redistricting.  In other words, if the results were exactly the same as today,  I'd expect 248+ GOP House seats.

It would be possible that this might account for a minor GOP pickup.

Second, we don't know how popular Obama will be

Here is how I see it:

FL:  +2D(new rules make it very tough for Republicans to draw themselves more seats)
GA:  +1R
IL: -5R, +4D
IA: -1?
LA: -1R
MA: -1D
MI: -1D
NV:  +1D
NY: -1D, -1R
OH: -1D, -1R
PA: -1D
SC: +1D(VRA will mandate another black majority district)
TX: +3D, +1R(VRA will mandate new Hispanic majority districts)
UT: +1R
WA: +1D

That all adds up to five GOP losses and seven Dem gains.  There isnt much else the GOP can do in MI, PA, and OH since they hold so many seats there.  

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Altmire, Critz and Holden are all going to be in trouble in 2012 no matter what happens with redistricting. Altmire faced a bottom of the barrel candidate who has not supported by the establishment and he could be in an even more difficult district in 2k12. Critz would probably be facing a stronger challenger in 2012 without redistricting but that's moot because his district is done and he will only have awful choices for other districts to run in. Holden's only real base this year was in Schuylkill County, if the Republicans want to be bastards they could eliminate that and make things every difficult for him.

Overall bad things are going to happen in PA.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The GOP will almost assuredly "gain" some seats on the national scale because of redistricting. For instance, when Critz in Pennsylvania is eliminated in redistricting and then the GOP wins one of the newly created seats in Texas, they'll have net gained a seat from the Democrats even though it wasn't a direct pick-up.

I thought the newly created seats were going to be VRA seats?

[Mr.Phips]

Altmire, Critz and Holden are all going to be in trouble in 2012 no matter what happens with redistricting. Altmire faced a bottom of the barrel candidate who has not supported by the establishment and he could be in an even more difficult district in 2k12. Critz would probably be facing a stronger challenger in 2012 without redistricting but that's moot because his district is done and he will only have awful choices for other districts to run in. Holden's only real base this year was in Schuylkill County, if the Republicans want to be bastards they could eliminate that and make things every difficult for him.

Overall bad things are going to happen in PA.

Holden would just run wherever Republicans put Schuylkill county.  If he and Altmire could survive in the worst year for Democrats since 1894, they can survive in 2012. 

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Altmire, Critz and Holden are all going to be in trouble in 2012 no matter what happens with redistricting. Altmire faced a bottom of the barrel candidate who has not supported by the establishment and he could be in an even more difficult district in 2k12. Critz would probably be facing a stronger challenger in 2012 without redistricting but that's moot because his district is done and he will only have awful choices for other districts to run in. Holden's only real base this year was in Schuylkill County, if the Republicans want to be bastards they could eliminate that and make things every difficult for him.

Overall bad things are going to happen in PA.

Holden would just run wherever Republicans put Schuylkill county.  If he and Altmire could survive in the worst year for Democrats since 1894, they can survive in 2012. 

Altmire only barely survived because he faced no serious opposition. The same applies somewhat towards Holden.