GOP house gains in 2012?

[J. J.]

First, I'd expect a 5-10 seat GOP net gain from redistricting.  In other words, if the results were exactly the same as today,  I'd expect 248+ GOP House seats.

It would be possible that this might account for a minor GOP pickup.

Second, we don't know how popular Obama will be

[J. J.]

Redistricting will have the effect of either shortening the Democratic coattails or lengthening the Republican coattails.  In an absolutely neutral election, this could mark a 5-10 gain in GOP seats.

It might make a 20 Democratic gain in an Obama landslide a 15 seat gain.  Likewise, it might make a 15 seat loss in an Obama collapse a 20 seat loss.

[J. J.]

Any sort of major wrenching in DFW would have to be carefully done to avoid creating a democratic target, though.

Not really.  If the Republicans create a Hispanic-Majority district alongside the current Black-Plurality one, the rest of the DFW complex becomes about 62% McCain, which should make it easy to draw enough Safe Republican districts to cover the whole area.  Not to mention that Edward's loss in TX-17 frees up some Heavily Republican South Fort worth Suburbs for use there.  Northern Dallas might be tricky, but it's the only place where the Democrats would be even theoretically competitive, and the Republicans can make that region safe enough.

It's also very possible to create a black-majority seat in DFW by unlocking the black areas in Fort Worth.

i know, but it's hard to draw two connections between Dallas and Fort worth for a Black-Majority and a Hispanic-majority district.  Besides, it's not like Fort Worth Republicans need the extra protection--the County itself voted for McCain 55-44 and it's surrounded by heavily Republican suburbs.

The Justice Department could very well demand it.  It wouldnt be that hard to draw.  Just draw an arm that connects the two cities. 

Are you sure that the DOJ could demand a Hispanic district?  Being Hispanic is not a race.

[J. J.]

Any sort of major wrenching in DFW would have to be carefully done to avoid creating a democratic target, though.

Not really.  If the Republicans create a Hispanic-Majority district alongside the current Black-Plurality one, the rest of the DFW complex becomes about 62% McCain, which should make it easy to draw enough Safe Republican districts to cover the whole area.  Not to mention that Edward's loss in TX-17 frees up some Heavily Republican South Fort worth Suburbs for use there.  Northern Dallas might be tricky, but it's the only place where the Democrats would be even theoretically competitive, and the Republicans can make that region safe enough.

It's also very possible to create a black-majority seat in DFW by unlocking the black areas in Fort Worth.

i know, but it's hard to draw two connections between Dallas and Fort worth for a Black-Majority and a Hispanic-majority district.  Besides, it's not like Fort Worth Republicans need the extra protection--the County itself voted for McCain 55-44 and it's surrounded by heavily Republican suburbs.

The Justice Department could very well demand it.  It wouldnt be that hard to draw.  Just draw an arm that connects the two cities. 

Are you sure that the DOJ could demand a Hispanic district?  Being Hispanic is not a race.

The original VRA just mentioned "race or color", but it was extended to Hispanics in the 1975 amended version.

Has it ever been used on the Congressional level in Texas?

[J. J.]

Any sort of major wrenching in DFW would have to be carefully done to avoid creating a democratic target, though.

Not really.  If the Republicans create a Hispanic-Majority district alongside the current Black-Plurality one, the rest of the DFW complex becomes about 62% McCain, which should make it easy to draw enough Safe Republican districts to cover the whole area.  Not to mention that Edward's loss in TX-17 frees up some Heavily Republican South Fort worth Suburbs for use there.  Northern Dallas might be tricky, but it's the only place where the Democrats would be even theoretically competitive, and the Republicans can make that region safe enough.

It's also very possible to create a black-majority seat in DFW by unlocking the black areas in Fort Worth.

i know, but it's hard to draw two connections between Dallas and Fort worth for a Black-Majority and a Hispanic-majority district.  Besides, it's not like Fort Worth Republicans need the extra protection--the County itself voted for McCain 55-44 and it's surrounded by heavily Republican suburbs.

The Justice Department could very well demand it.  It wouldnt be that hard to draw.  Just draw an arm that connects the two cities. 

Are you sure that the DOJ could demand a Hispanic district?  Being Hispanic is not a race.

The original VRA just mentioned "race or color", but it was extended to Hispanics in the 1975 amended version.

Has it ever been used on the Congressional level in Texas?

Yeah, when the old TX-23 was struck down because Republicans tried to make it less Hispanic. 

Or was that because of one of the black districts (Lee)?

[J. J.]

I just love how everyone assumes 2012 is going to be another great GOP year after good year in 2010. Kind like "2010 is going to be just another great year for Dems after 2008". Oh yes, it sound logic as well, such a majority, few seats in Senate to defend...

Everyone? There are people (like myself) stating that we can't make the same mistake we made after 2004 and the same mistake the Dems made after 2006 and 2008.

I agree on that one.

The only thing I've really been talking about is the effect of redistricting.