GOP house gains in 2012?

[Brittain33]

Maine is not going to gerrymander no matter who is in control. It's not in their culture with just two districts. The state already has a clear sense of identity that has Portland on one side and other cities on the other, the legislature is not going to put towns in extreme southern Maine with Lewiston and Houlton just to get an R+1 district.

[Brittain33]

In an absolutely neutral election, this could mark a 5-10 gain in GOP seats.

People have run down the list of states by Republican/Democratic gains and losses. They don't add up to 5-10. Why don't you provide us your list of states and gains that add up to 5-10 gains... and take into account that a neutral election requires a swing away from the big Republican advantage they had in 2010.

How many seats do you expect Republicans to pick up in absolute terms in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Tennessee, and Michigan from their current numbers?

[Brittain33]

My guess is that Obama significantly overran generic Dem strength in some of the suburbs of DFW in particular... I think the trend in some of those districts like TX-24, TX-32, and similarly in Houston, TX-7 was very strong and then snapped back sharply this year. 55% McCain should be more than strong enough for a Texas Republican congressman.

[Brittain33]

Blacks vote for blacks.  Whites vote for whites.  Nothing else matters except race.  It's demeaning, actually.

More like black voters vote for black and white candidates (every recent Dem pres nominee before Obama), whites vote for whites. But, see the third chart... and imagine what the outcome is when one side significantly outnumbers the other.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/alabama.html

[Brittain33]

Black votes used to be very diluted in the South, deliberately so and it's a protection to assure that overly ambition legislatures don't attempt to dilute voters.

It's 2010, not 1965.  Louisiana and South Carolina both have a minority Governor/Governor-Elect.  

In 1850, Irish people weren't considered white. By 1920, they were, but the jury was still out on Italians and Jews. Now it would be laughable to think that Italians, Jews, and Irish weren't white... and Asian immigrants are very much on the same track toward being considered in the same category as white people. Not there yet, mind you--but they cross that divide that black candidates find nearly impossible to cross in the minds of a majority of white voters in some places.

[Brittain33]

Why do you keep putting racist in quotes when I never used that word? Thanks. I'll use it in the next post so you understand what I actually do think.

Anyway, it's nice if every 15 years when there's a big wave election a majority white district in the South (and this one which nearly elected a lesbian Democrat in '08!) will elect a single black Republican congressman, that's a sign that we've come a ways toward race being less of an issue, but I don't buy that a single example counteracts decades of history and current electoral dynamics that you seem to be outraged by people acknowledging the existence of. I'm sorry this makes you so extremely angry, generally when people come here it's for a love of data, and sometimes that crosses over into issues that stoke intense personal emotion.

There are tens of millions of white voters across the country who have never voted for a black candidate, and for many of them, the race is a factor. How many black voters do you think have never voted for a white candidate, since you view the two situations as equivalent?

[Brittain33]

Cinyc:

Lots of Americans are racist.

Racism by white people against minorities has a much greater impact on minorities' lives than minority racism against the majority because of the balance of power and wealth in society today, and the simple dynamic of majority elections.

The history of American democracy is, up until very recently, the history of disenfranchisement of the minority.

I take your word for it that you don't want to be the beneficiary of this pattern, it just happens, and that's why you're so very angry when people point it out. That's fine. Please understand that your feelings, no matter how deeply felt, do not in themselves negate facts.

[Brittain33]

Again, there is far more than one example of minorities getting elected in white areas of the South.  FL-22 is another.

FL-22 ain't the South. Geographically it is, but it's full of transplants.

SC-1 this year.
OK-4 in 1994 and afterward.

A hundred thousand or so Republican primary voters in each district are carrying a hell of a great weight on their shoulders to serve the purposes you're setting them to... I'm sure they're happy for it but it's two districts, 16 years apart...  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL. I didn't make up the distinction between how Asian immigrants are viewed and other groups, but you're free to pretend it's just me. You may want to consider why there are no competent, conservative Republican black governor candidates--I suspect you're really not prepared to have an honest discussion of how come that hasn't happened, and why you have to look at single congressional districts every 15 years to redeem tens of millions of voters.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

True, although Louisiana needed a second try. I'm not sugarcoating the record in the north. There are no black senators and precious few elected at all from anywhere. All of which supports my argument about the majority vs. minority dynamic. Would you accept that your prejudices do matter differently if you're in the majority vs. the minority if I say it gives you license to rag on the north, too?

BTW, if you want to rag on "so-called progressive" states, check the record in Mass.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They've had opportunities for offices and candidates other than President and Barack Obama. I didn't say "presidential" there. How many African-Americans have won statewide in the South, again, since Reconstruction? How often?