GOP house gains in 2012?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Redistricting will help.

Where? There aren't any states where the Republicans can gerrymander for further gains.

North Carolina and maybe Maine (where ME-02 can be more R).

They can also strengthen incumbents in states where they won an abnormal amount of seats in.

Maine will redistrict after 2012 when probably the Dems will reclaim the legislature.

The Republicans will have to be careful with North Carolina because the Obama DOJ can toss out any map that they consider violates the VRA.

[Landslide Lyndon]

From what I've read, according to the population growth the new Texas districts must be three Hispanic majority (one in Dallas, one in Houston and one at the Rio Grande valley) and one other safe Republican.
Otherwise the DOJ can and will reject the map.  

I've also read that maybe they'll demand another black majority district in Alabama.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think people are putting a little too much faith in the Obama Justice Department.

Well, if they try to play Moderate Hero even in that case, then maybe they should just resign and let the Republicans take officially control of everything.

But I have a hunch that the Black and Hispanic caucuses won't remain silent in such a case.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think people are putting a little too much faith in the Obama Justice Department.

Well, if they try to play Moderate Hero even in that case, then maybe they should just resign and let the Republicans take officially control of everything.

But I have a hunch that the Black and Hispanic caucuses won't remain silent in such a case.

The Black and Hispanic caucuses are going to be pushing the DOJ hard to create as many new districts as possible for them. 

Obama and the Democrats owe Hispanics big time. They saved Reid and Bennet's ass despite the fact that the administration did next to nothing for immigration reform.
Fighting for more Hispanic majority districts would be a nice bone to them.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Republicans could very well hold on easily their House majority if it was built on freshmen like Rob Hurt, Jaime Herrera or Joe Heck.
Unfortunately for them it's built on people like Allen West, Tim Walberg and Frank Guinta.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I just love how everyone assumes 2012 is going to be another great GOP year after good year in 2010. Kind like "2010 is going to be just another great year for Dems after 2008". Oh yes, it sound logic as well, such a majority, few seats in Senate to defend...

Everyone? There are people (like myself) stating that we can't make the same mistake we made after 2004 and the same mistake the Dems made after 2006 and 2008.

Well, they were right about 2008 being as great as 2006.

[Landslide Lyndon]

FWIW, the guys at Swing State Project made a fair map of California (compact districts, communities of interest, etc). While no Democrat was endangered by such a map (even though their districts became less Democratic), 4-5 Republicans suddenly found themselves in unfriendly or swing districts. So Trende's assumption that fair redistricting in California will favor Republicans doesn't seem to be true.
The state has become so heavily Democratic that even a neutral map might bring significant Dem gains.

[Landslide Lyndon]

FWIW, the guys at Swing State Project made a fair map of California (compact districts, communities of interest, etc). While no Democrat was endangered by such a map (even though their districts became less Democratic), 4-5 Republicans suddenly found themselves in unfriendly or swing districts. So Trende's assumption that fair redistricting in California will favor Republicans doesn't seem to be true.
The state has become so heavily Democratic that even a neutral map might bring significant Dem gains.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6642/ca-nonbiased-redistricting-aka-will-we-actually-benefit

Is this the one you are referring to?

No, it was about 4-5 days ago, after the initiative passed. Sadly, it seems that it has been deleted.

[Landslide Lyndon]

FWIW, the guys at Swing State Project made a fair map of California (compact districts, communities of interest, etc). While no Democrat was endangered by such a map (even though their districts became less Democratic), 4-5 Republicans suddenly found themselves in unfriendly or swing districts. So Trende's assumption that fair redistricting in California will favor Republicans doesn't seem to be true.
The state has become so heavily Democratic that even a neutral map might bring significant Dem gains.

     It would favor the Republicans more than a Democratic gerrymander of the state would, though. Since the polls clearly showed that Prop 25 would pass, getting Prop 20 passed as well clearly benefitted the Republicans. Losing 4-5 seats is better than losing 9-10 seats, after all.ders

Better 4-5 than nothing I guess.

Which proves, what, that the Democrats at Swing State Project can still gerrymander a "fair" map?

Why don't you give it a try since you're obviously so much more objective?

[Landslide Lyndon]

FWIW, the guys at Swing State Project made a fair map of California (compact districts, communities of interest, etc). While no Democrat was endangered by such a map (even though their districts became less Democratic), 4-5 Republicans suddenly found themselves in unfriendly or swing districts. So Trende's assumption that fair redistricting in California will favor Republicans doesn't seem to be true.
The state has become so heavily Democratic that even a neutral map might bring significant Dem gains.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6642/ca-nonbiased-redistricting-aka-will-we-actually-benefit

Is this the one you are referring to?

No, it was about 4-5 days ago, after the initiative passed. Sadly, it seems that it has been deleted.

The guy who made the map I mentioned made a new one to correct some imperfections.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/8028/redistricting-california

Overall, that would be almost a net gain of 6 for the Democrats, just from drawing more compact districts. In reality, it will probably be 4 or 5, because I'm sure the Central Valley will turn out a bit differently than I had it, but there will nonetheless be another swing district up no matter how they draw it.