Canada: What if? - Turner tossed.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Note, that beginning of this story is based on a true story. What we don’t know is how close the vote was, but we do know there was a vote, and it had a real chance of passing.

Date: Monday, October 24th, 1988.
Location: Ottawa.

Emergency meeting of the federal Executive of the Liberal Party of Canada.
Topic: John Turner’s Leadership.

It is noon on October 24th 1988. Tonight is the French Debate. The French debate is watched by only a fraction of the population. It is the English debate the next evening, October 25th, that has the potential to really shake things up. The debate is scheduled to broadcast live the next evening at 7pm. In the debate will be the Conservative Prime Minister, Brian Mulroney, and the leader of the pro-Labour NDP, Ed Broadbent. Canada had always been a “Two plus” party system, with the Liberals and Conservatives exchanging governing roles while the NDP has always been stuck third. Liberal Leader, John Turner, is also scheduled to be at the debate due to his role as Leader of the Liberal Party.

Turner’s leadership has been a disaster. Since becoming Prime Minister in late 1984, everything he has done has been a mis-step. Upon taking office he saw early polls showing the Liberals had a chance to win an election, and he immediately called an election. Not only did he lose that election, but the Liberals were reduced to 28% of the vote, and 40 seats, their worst showing ever in terms of seats and popular vote. Since then the Liberals have been consistently behind the NDP in all political polls, only breaking though to second place at times when the Conservative Government has been unpopular. Turner has always been seen as the weak point of the party. The Conservatives are currently running a successful campaign trying to bomb the bridge that connects the Liberal Party and their main campaign points (free trade) by attacking Turner. Turner has been trying to run a campaign focused on Free Trade. The NDP's campaign focuses on a multitude of issues where they feel the Conservatives are weak.

We know that the result of this emergency meeting was to keep Turner. Turner would go on to hit a "home run" in the English debate that vaulted his party in the polls from near 20% to near 50%.

What if Turner did not survive that vote? What if Turner was tossed the day of the French debates? What if Canadians suddenly found that Jean Chretien was the new leader of the Liberal Party?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

In a smoke filled room in Stornoway the Federal executive of the Liberal Party of Canada held a secret emergency meeting to discuss the future of the party. Members were divided as to what they should do with Turner, the leader that has been full of fail. Some members wanted to toss him by the wayside and replace him with Jean Chretien, while others said this would be a disaster in the middle of an election. These 21 men and women (mostly men) held in their hands the power to name the leader of the Liberal Party.

Debates were long and heart felt, and some people were swayed back and forth, but at the final vote, matters were pretty well settled.

Everyone had been able to make it to the meeting with one exception, a member who had boarded the wrong aircraft and was in Calgary. He was known to be a Turner supporter. The President called for a vote and the results came back 10 to eliminate Turner, and 10 to keep him. The President did not cast a vote and encouraged more debate. Members were restless and did not see how any further debate would help, so they pressured the President to cast a ballot, and he did. The executive made a decision and they decided, they all decided, that they would stand behind it for better or for worse. The president then picked up the phone.


It hit the news by 2pm that day that Turner was no longer Liberal Leader. The media began questioning what had happened and why. Experts were brought on news programs that evening to explain that what happened was legal under the constitution of the party, and that like it or not, Jean Chretien is now Liberal Leader. Turner, however, was one who did not like it.

That night, despite instances that he not do so, he turned up at the debate where Chretien was getting ready. He demanded to be allowed to debate, saying the media had invited him, not some random Liberal Leader. The commotion drew the attention of Chretien, Mulroeny, and Broadment.

Mulroeny was amused at this and proposed they find another podium and let them both debate. Broadbent was aghast and suggested neither should be allowed to debate. Eventually Turner and Chretien were ushered off into a back room while they spoke with the executive. They were able to convince Turner to leave the studio, but he would not commit to them that he wouldn't do anything stupid.

The debate was mostly boring, with planned attacks against Turner being unable to be used, and Chretien being somewhat unready.

The next day Turner decided to speak to the media, and what he said was anything but nice. He said that he had been stabbed in the back by his own party, and that he was considering running as an Independent in the election. When viewers tuned in to the English debate, each party was more ready. Chretien took up Turner's attacks on Free Trade, while Mulroney and Broadbent went viciously at the idea that Chretien is now campaigning to be Prime Minister despite not even been voted in as Leader. The debate was seen as a disaster for the Liberals, and rumors started to swirl that some members wanted Turner back.

This would only get worse. Chretien was unable to convince the Liberal candidate in his home riding to stand aside, and forced him to run as an Independent. Turner meanwhile decided to run as a Liberal but to challenge Chretien for the leadership after the election, weather or not the Liberals win, and claimed to have a number of MPs and Senators who would back him. The Liberals looked like a party run by fools, while the NDP kept a strong and steady attack on the PC Party and maintained the banner for the left.

When the results rolled in it was clear what Canadians thought of the whole situation...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

ELECTION RESULTS
PC - 148
NDP - 112
Lib - 35
MAPS: http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/AMSTAR/chretien88.html

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Chretien managed to win his own seat, as did Turner, but the Liberals lost a total of 5 seats, down from their 1984 total, which was at the time their worst performance ever. The party also was reduced to 6 seats in Quebec, something they had not seen since Confederation. Both Turner and Chretien supporters blamed one another for destroying the Liberal's prospects in the election.

The Tories managed to win a very marrow majority. After the speaker was chosen, they would be tied with the opposition. There was some talk of appointing an opposition MP as Speaker, but Mulroney was convinced that any decision to bring down his government within the next few months would see the total and complete death of the Liberal Party, something he wanted to take advantage of.

The NDP meanwhile was riding high. From their previous high of 43 seats, they now found themselves with 112 seats and that they were the Official Opposition. They won seats in Quebec and New Brunswick for the first time, and elected a total of 16 MP's from the eastern provinces, when their previous combined highest total was 2.

Unfortunatly, one elected MP, John Dahmer would not live to see the new parliament. He died of Cancer but 5 days after the election.

The resultant by-election would see the first Reform MP elected, and this push the government into a minority situation.

It was not long after this, that the government found itself in the middle of a vote of non confidence, and Canadians found themselves again, back at the polls.


EDIT - For the record, these are the important NDP Quebecckers at this time "Remy Trudel, Francois Beaulne, Gaetan Nadeau"

[Hatman 🍁]

love it

[Dr. Cynic]

Will Ed Broadbent become PM at some point?

Also, what will become of the moderate PCer, Joe Clark?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Bump - I will be continuing this.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

To save some time... What Mulroney did in real life is what he did in this time line. Campbell takes over on time. The NDP bleeds a few MP's to resignations and the PC Party manages to hold a Majority throughout the entire Parliament. Federal politics did not change much except where noted.

Most of this update relates to the provinces.



Yukon - February 1989
NDP - 9 - 45%
PC - 7 - 44%
Lib - 0 - 11%


Albrta - March 1989
PC - 59 - 49%
NDP - 18 - 31%
Lib - 6 - 19%


Newfoundland - April 1989
Lib - 28 - 46.3%
PC - 23 - 46.6%
NDP - 1 - 6.1%


Prince Edward Island - 1989
Lib - 30 - 60%
PC - 2 - 35%
NDP - 0 - 5%


Quebec - September 1989
PLQ - 89 - 47.6% (Liberals)
PQ - 31 - 38.4%
E-U - 5 - 6.1% (Equality and Unity parties)
NPD - 0 - 5.1% (New Democrats)
PV - 0 - 1.0% (Greens)


In December of 1989, Ed Broadbent decided to resign. A "Draft Bob Rae" movement began and was successful. Bob Rae ran, and won the leadership of the federal NDP. Ontario's NDP held a leadership election and elected Ruth Grier. Grier and Rae together began to work towards creating a much more centrist NDP, not only in Ontario, but everywhere across Canada. This was refereed to as the "Modernization" of the NDP. This went much further than a few simple nudges for or against specific policies, and represented a real attempt to change the NDP itself.


Ontario - September 1990
NDP - 76 - 38.5%
PC - 26 - 26.3%
Lib - 25 - 23.4%
OSF - 3 - 5.8%
FCP - 0 - 2.3%
CoR - 0 - 1.7%


Manitoba - September 1990
PC - 31 - 44%
NDP - 23 - 33%
Lib - 3 - 22%


December 1990 - Alberta
Laurence Decore and 4 Liberal MLA's defect to the NDP. Decore is acclaimed leader at the NDP's next leadership convention with the backing of Ray Martin. This was the result of "Modernization" process. Martin quit as MLA within 3 months.


New Brunswick - September 1991
Lib - 35 - 40%
NDP - 12 - 24%
CoR - 8 - 18%
PC - 3 - 18%




British Columbia - September 1991
NDP - 51 - 41%
Lib - 17 - 33%
SC - 7 - 24%


Saskatchewan - October 1991
NDP - 44 - 51%
PC - 21 - 36%
Lib - 1 - 13%


Yukon - October 1992
NDP - 7 - 39%
YKP - 7 - 37%
IND - 3 - 13%
Lib - 0 - 11%


Nova Scotia - May 1993
Lib - 27 - 41%
NDP - 16 - 33%
PC - 9 - 25%


Newfoundland - May 1993
Lib - 33 - 44%
PC - 16 - 38%
NDP - 3 - 16%


Alberta - June 1993
NDP - 42 - 47%
PC - 41 - 44%
Lib - 0 - 4%

This would become Alberta's first NDP government.

Prince Edward Island - 1993
Lib - 31 - 50%
PC - 1 - 36%
NDP - 0 - 14%


The next election was Federal. The NDP managed to capture quite a few people's attention when it opposed the Charlottetown Accords. Not only did those fighting for Western Alienation look to the NDP, but also those in Quebec that felt Quebec was getting a raw deal. By the time the election came around, even a bump in the polls for Campbell and the PC Party could not stop the perception that the NDP was on the way to victory.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I got ahead of myself and published this without the story.

When the "Modernization" process hit Ontario, it hit hard. There was a long and somewhat nasty debate within the party about how to proceed. Three members on the left, Howard Hampton, Richard Johnston, and Shelley Martel, Dave Cooke, Michael Breaugh decided to abandon the NDP to form the Ontario Socialist Federation or OSF. Three of them (Martel, Breaugh, and Cooke) were re-elected, while the other two lost.

The OSF had plans to start Socialist parties in each province, however the loss in this election has put that in question.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The 1993 election was one of the more interesting in Canadian history. Starting with a lead, the PC Party was unable to maintain momentum though the election.

The NDP was fighting to maintain it's position, and managed to do so. The NDP and PC Party split the Atlantic, with the Liberals picking up a few seats. The Liberals however managed to sweep Prince Edward Island. The NDP gained support not only due to their opposition to Charlottetown, but due to it's position as the largest left party. In Western Canada, the anti-Charlottetown sentiment was split between the NDP and Reform, with the NDP winning a Majority from the west, and keeping Reform to 13 seats. In Ontario, the NDP extended their gains despite some left-wing opposition to the provincial government there. Quebec was an interesting story, with the Liberals taking 10 seats, but finishing fourth. The PC Party won 13, but finished behind the Bloc Quebecois, which won 23 seats. The NDP managed to win the province, with 29 seats. 

NDP - 158 - 37.26% - Bob Rae
PC - 81 - 29.87% - Kim Campbell
Lib - 23 - 16.72% - Jean Chretien
BQ - 23 - 6.55% - Lucien Bouchard
Ref - 13 - 6.79% - Preston Manning















This gave the NDP a commanding Majority. Campbell did not resign on election night though some suggested she should. Chretien, however, did resign as leader, but not as MP. Paul Martin would go on to be acclaimed to that position. Martin would end up in a fight with Bouchard and the Bloc as to which party officially was third. The Speaker would go on to rule that precedence is what counts, this is in line with past rulings. Since the Liberals were ahead of the Bloc in the last parliament, they continue to hold that position. Reform finished fifth, with Preston Manning finally getting a seat in Parliament.

[Hatman 🍁]

*looks at maps*

wut

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Prime Minister Bob Rae (pictured) celebrates New Years 1994 in Ottawa.



Yes, the timelines are now in sync.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Bloc, and the Reform Party, were both very happy with the results. The PC Party felt that they performed well given the setbacks, and Campbell was given heavy backing to continue. Rae was cheered on as a historic leader, on the same level as Tommy Douglas. Rae and his modernization plans were backed resoundingly. For Chretien and the Liberals this election was a further embarrassment. Rather than come back to a strong position, the Liberals found themselves tied with the Bloc Quebecois. The Liberals held a leadership convention where Paul Martin was installed as leader without opposition. Chretien was convinced to stay on for the time being as an 'elder statesman', and to prevent the Bloc from replacing the Liberals as the #3 party.

The New Democrats began to look at the deficit and how to deal with it. They decided on a slow and steady course to reduce it, a position opposed by the PC Party, and strongly opposed by Reform. The Rae government tried to only make minor cuts, and hold to social spending. As a result, the deficit remained sizable.

An election was held in 1994 in Quebec.

Quebec Election 1994
PQ - 77 - 41.8%
PLQ - 46 - 41.4%
NPDQ - 1 - 6.9%
ADQ - 1 - 6.5%

The PQ began planning for a referendum.

In April of 1995, Manitoba held a provincial election.

Manitoba Election
1995 (april)
PC - 31 - 46%
NDP - 25 - 38%
Lib - 1 - 16%

By mid 1995, the federal NDP had dipped in the polls, but remained strong. Elections were scheduled in Saskatchewan and Ontario. Polls suggested the NDP would do respectably in each.

Planning for Quebec's referendum was underway, however polls showed that Quebecois were not too keen on a yes vote. They saw the NDP as a possible alternative that could back what they wanted from Canada.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Given real life events, I am closing this storyline down as it is no longer a truly "alternate" history.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2011/06/ndp-trickle-down-effect.html

I was wondering if someone would try to claim a federal NDP victory would not translate into provincial boosting.