US House Redistricting: Maryland

[krazen1211]

Regional concerns matter, especially for those 50k blacks stuck in the Eastern Shore district if you draw it into PG.

Instead they should just run CD-1 over to Carroll County and grab all the 60% McCain precincts.

[Verily]

Regional concerns matter, especially for those 50k blacks stuck in the Eastern Shore district if you draw it into PG.

Instead they should just run CD-1 over to Carroll County and grab all the 60% McCain precincts.

Political considerations would almost certainly mean the PG voters would be mostly Hispanics rather than blacks, and Hispanics have no real political influence in Maryland.

[Mr.Phips]

Regional concerns matter, especially for those 50k blacks stuck in the Eastern Shore district if you draw it into PG.

Instead they should just run CD-1 over to Carroll County and grab all the 60% McCain precincts.

Just like how in Texas, Republicans should keep the city of Austin together, right?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It doesn't matter what you put in with the Eastern Shore, it's a completely different world from the rest of the state.

[krazen1211]

Regional concerns matter, especially for those 50k blacks stuck in the Eastern Shore district if you draw it into PG.

Instead they should just run CD-1 over to Carroll County and grab all the 60% McCain precincts.

Just like how in Texas, Republicans should keep the city of Austin together, right?

There's a sizable difference between screwing over your own voters and screwing over the other side's voters. One matters. One doesn't.

[Mr.Phips]

Regional concerns matter, especially for those 50k blacks stuck in the Eastern Shore district if you draw it into PG.

Instead they should just run CD-1 over to Carroll County and grab all the 60% McCain precincts.

Just like how in Texas, Republicans should keep the city of Austin together, right?

There's a sizable difference between screwing over your own voters and screwing over the other side's voters. One matters. One doesn't.

You think that Austin's Democratic voters arent getting screwed by being put into a bunch of Republican districts?

[krazen1211]

You think that Austin's Democratic voters arent getting screwed by being put into a bunch of Republican districts?

Try rereading what I wrote.

In anycase, here's the reasonable 7-1 and 8-0 maps; of course it ignores a couple residences. But I think Hoyer has some apartment in college park.

[minionofmidas]

What be the racial percentages on that 8-0 map?

[krazen1211]

What be the racial percentages on that 8-0 map?

CD-1: 54% Obama
CD-2: 58% Obama
CD-3: 55% Obama
CD-4: 75% Obama, 55% black
CD-5: 60% Obama
CD-6: 59% Obama
CD-7: 68% Obama, 51% black
CD-8: 65% Obama

In order to get Towson back into CD-3 I think you need to split Baltimore again. But at least the map is not horrid.

[Verily]

Here's a fun map. Nobody likes the Eastern Shore anyway.

MD-04 is 52% black VAP. MD-07 is 51% black VAP. All seats are at least 61% Obama (MD-05 is the least), save MD-06, which is 63% McCain. The totally redesigned MD-01 is 70% Obama.

[krazen1211]

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

On principle, I agree. However, my map was intended to be an intellectual excercise on what a Democratic gerrymander would look like with a requirement of three black-majority districts. It was in no way intended to be a serious proposal, a prediction of what will be done, or an argument as to what should be done.

The useless organization known as the Maryland GOP has proposed a map that appears to have 3 black districts.

http://mdgop.org/mdgop-releases-new-congressional-lines/

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

On principle, I agree. However, my map was intended to be an intellectual excercise on what a Democratic gerrymander would look like with a requirement of three black-majority districts. It was in no way intended to be a serious proposal, a prediction of what will be done, or an argument as to what should be done.

The useless organization known as the Maryland GOP has proposed a map that appears to have 3 black districts.

http://mdgop.org/mdgop-releases-new-congressional-lines/

Not bad, but that 2nd district seems unnecessarily erose. Why not take northern Baltimore County instead of going into Howard?

[Verily]

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001.  

On principle, I agree. However, my map was intended to be an intellectual excercise on what a Democratic gerrymander would look like with a requirement of three black-majority districts. It was in no way intended to be a serious proposal, a prediction of what will be done, or an argument as to what should be done.

The useless organization known as the Maryland GOP has proposed a map that appears to have 3 black districts.

http://mdgop.org/mdgop-releases-new-congressional-lines/

Not bad, but that 2nd district seems unnecessarily erose. Why not take northern Baltimore County instead of going into Howard?

You probably have to split Howard County again if you do that. So, either way, one of Howard County and Baltimore County gets an extra split.

Anyway, it's definitely not three black districts. That MD-04 might be plurality black, but it's definitely nowhere near majority. My guess is around 33% white, 32% black, 25% Hispanic, 10% Asian/other

The hop from MD-01 across the Chesapeake is supremely bizarre, too.

[timothyinMD]

You probably have to split Howard County again if you do that. So, either way, one of Howard County and Baltimore County gets an extra split.

Anyway, it's definitely not three black districts. That MD-04 might be plurality black, but it's definitely nowhere near majority. My guess is around 33% white, 32% black, 25% Hispanic, 10% Asian/other

The hop from MD-01 across the Chesapeake is supremely bizarre, too.
[/quote]

The cross-bay hop is not bizarre.  The 1st district has crossed the bay for the last 30 some years.  If you add Harford Co to the 9 eastern shore counties, they are 27,642 people short of one district.


I don't care for the Md GOP's map either.  I've created 3 different scenarios that are better than that one

[Verily]

The cross-bay hop is not bizarre.  The 1st district has crossed the bay for the last 30 some years.  If you add Harford Co to the 9 eastern shore counties, they are 27,642 people short of one district.

Just because it's been that way for a long time does not make it not bizarre. Although it is particularly odd because doing so is also not really to the Maryland GOP's benefit (at least in this case--they might have made it to their benefit if the bay-hop took in Annapolis).

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

You probably have to split Howard County again if you do that. So, either way, one of Howard County and Baltimore County gets an extra split.

You could split Carroll County instead, drawing MD-6 into northwestern Howard County, and end up with something a lot less ugly.

[krazen1211]

Not bad, but that 2nd district seems unnecessarily erose. Why not take northern Baltimore County instead of going into Howard?

Good question. That would help the GOP too.

The central district on that map clocks in at about 40% black and max 25% of the other races.

[muon2]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The cross-bay hop is not bizarre.  The 1st district has crossed the bay for the last 30 some years.  If you add Harford Co to the 9 eastern shore counties, they are 27,642 people short of one district.


I don't care for the Md GOP's map either.  I've created 3 different scenarios that are better than that one

I do like the fact that their map has CD 5 and 6 virtually identical to my version with three black-majority CDs posted three weeks ago.

I also agree that a CD-1 cross of the bay is not unusual, and I followed that direction in my map, I just took in a lot more across the bay that the MD GOP.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

It's obvious that the jump across the Chesapeake is not considered taboo. But, from a community of interest standpoint, what is the rationale for including a chunk of Anne Arundel County, as opposed to some of Baltimore County, with the Eastern Shore? Surely the case can be made that once Harford County is placed in the district, some of Baltimore County can be included as well?

[minionofmidas]

It's obvious that the jump across the Chesapeake is not considered taboo. But, from a community of interest standpoint, what is the rationale for including a chunk of Anne Arundel County, as opposed to some of Baltimore County, with the Eastern Shore? Surely the case can be made that once Harford County is placed in the district, some of Baltimore County can be included as well?

Harford County should not be placed in the Eastern Shore district. Essentially, the Chesapeake should be pictured as splitting the state entirely, so that the post-2000 1st district is crossing the Chesapeake twice.
As to Annapolis, it's sort of maritime and it's where the crossing has been since I-don't-know-when. Pre OMOV decisions, I believe. It's not the place that makes the most sense, actually, though it does make more sense than uniting the Eastern Shore with the Baltimore Suburbs (or splitting it, gasp). That'd be Southern Maryland imho.

EDIT: I'll take Timothy's word on it that it's since the 70s.

[jimrtex]

It's obvious that the jump across the Chesapeake is not considered taboo. But, from a community of interest standpoint, what is the rationale for including a chunk of Anne Arundel County, as opposed to some of Baltimore County, with the Eastern Shore? Surely the case can be made that once Harford County is placed in the district, some of Baltimore County can be included as well?

Queen Anne's is part of the Baltimore Metropolitan Statistical Area.

[minionofmidas]

That (and the high growth) is because of the bridge to Annapolis. Cecil County isn't and neither is York PA. I assume the reason is that even more people from Cecil commute to PA than to Baltimore, even though far more people commute to Baltimore from there than from QA. And York would have a much lower percentage of commuters, obviously.

[krazen1211]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/for-prince-georges-redistricting-prompts-questions-of-identity/2011/07/26/gIQA1pRSbI_blog.html

Black, white, Democrat and Republican, residents of Prince George’s County on Monday delivered a single unifying message to the redistricting commission of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D): Keep a proud county whole.

Don’t slice and dice Prince George’s reliably Democratic population to help elect congressmen from less blue parts of the state, residents said. And to reelect incumbents to Annapolis, don’t carve up natural communities and neighborhoods, limiting residents’ ability to have a representative who fully understands their needs.





That should put an obstacle in front of the Hoyer plan.

[Torie]

Is Hoyer aiming to ax just one Pubbie, or both of them?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Prince George’s County is larger than a congressional district, so that's kind of a silly complaint.