US House Redistricting: Maryland

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/for-prince-georges-redistricting-prompts-questions-of-identity/2011/07/26/gIQA1pRSbI_blog.html

Black, white, Democrat and Republican, residents of Prince George’s County on Monday delivered a single unifying message to the redistricting commission of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D): Keep a proud county whole.

Don’t slice and dice Prince George’s reliably Democratic population to help elect congressmen from less blue parts of the state, residents said. And to reelect incumbents to Annapolis, don’t carve up natural communities and neighborhoods, limiting residents’ ability to have a representative who fully understands their needs.





That should put an obstacle in front of the Hoyer plan.

I realize you're only programmed for blind partisan hackery, but do you really think that this is going to be an obstacle to the Democrats? Can you point to a single example of one-party control over redistricting being stymied by public outcry? Do you really think the Maryland Democratic Party, who passed one of the most gerrymandered maps in the country last time, is going to think twice this time because some people in one of the most reliably-Democratic counties demanded to be kept together?

[krazen1211]

I realize you're only programmed for blind partisan hackery, but do you really think that this is going to be an obstacle to the Democrats? Can you point to a single example of one-party control over redistricting being stymied by public outcry? Do you really think the Maryland Democratic Party, who passed one of the most gerrymandered maps in the country last time, is going to think twice this time because some people in one of the most reliably-Democratic counties demanded to be kept together?

Hi, I am Fayetteville to the Fourth (Arkansas version), and I got stymied by public outcry.

And no, I do not consider the 1st to PG district to be likely. I said that months ago.

[BigSkyBob]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/for-prince-georges-redistricting-prompts-questions-of-identity/2011/07/26/gIQA1pRSbI_blog.html

Black, white, Democrat and Republican, residents of Prince George’s County on Monday delivered a single unifying message to the redistricting commission of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D): Keep a proud county whole.

Don’t slice and dice Prince George’s reliably Democratic population to help elect congressmen from less blue parts of the state, residents said. And to reelect incumbents to Annapolis, don’t carve up natural communities and neighborhoods, limiting residents’ ability to have a representative who fully understands their needs.





That should put an obstacle in front of the Hoyer plan.

I realize you're only programmed for blind partisan hackery, but do you really think that this is going to be an obstacle to the Democrats? Can you point to a single example of one-party control over redistricting being stymied by public outcry? Do you really think the Maryland Democratic Party, who passed one of the most gerrymandered maps in the country last time, is going to think twice this time because some people in one of the most reliably-Democratic counties demanded to be kept together?

The GOP in Washington state in 1980.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why fight over getting rid of Bartlett or Harris when you can do both? A lot of thin connections here, but the current map has those as well.



MD-01 - 49.6 McCain, 48.7 Obama. Good fit for Kratovil.
MD-02 - 57.2 Obama, 40.8 McCain.
MD-03 - 58.8 Obama, 39.0 McCain.
MD-04 - 80.8 Obama, 18.3 McCain, 54.2% black VAP.
MD-05 - 65.3 Obama, 33.5 McCain.
MD-06 - 54.8 Obama, 43.5 McCain. Maybe not safe, but Republicans are so weak in Montgomery County that it would be pretty close to safe.
MD-07 - 65.5 Obama, 32.8 McCain, 50.8% black VAP. The trick is to put the uber-Republican northern suburbs of Baltimore here, I think.
MD-08 - 63.1 Obama, 35.3 McCain.

[timothyinMD]

This is a great map for Maryland.  

--Western Marylanders said they wanted a more compact district?  They got it

--P.G. County said they wanted their own district?  They got it

--Baltimore Co.. was split 5 ways, now 3.
--A.A. Co was split 4 ways, now 3.
--Baltimore city is unified into one district.  
--No cross-Chesapeake stretching
--Like communities in Harford and Baltimore Counties are united

--4 Solid Dem, 1 lean Dem, 1 toss up, 2 Solid Republican seats

1 38.7% Obama  59.2% McCain  
2 53.5% Obama  44.2% McCain
3 69.8% Obama
4 92.1% Obama
5 49.4% Obama  48.9% McCain
6 41.1% Obama  56.9% McCain
7 88.0% Obama
8 69.6% Obama

4th ~ 68% black, 7th ~ 65% black

No deviation above +48

[redcommander]

This is a great map for Maryland.  

--Western Marylanders said they wanted a more compact district?  They got it

--P.G. County said they wanted their own district?  They got it

--Baltimore Co.. was split 5 ways, now 3.
--A.A. Co was split 4 ways, now 3.
--Baltimore city is unified into one district.  
--No cross-Chesapeake stretching
--Like communities in Harford and Baltimore Counties are united

--4 Solid Dem, 1 lean Dem, 1 toss up, 2 Solid Republican seats

1 38.7% Obama  59.2% McCain  
2 53.5% Obama  44.2% McCain
3 69.8% Obama
4 92.1% Obama
5 49.4% Obama  48.9% McCain
6 41.1% Obama  56.9% McCain
7 88.0% Obama
8 69.6% Obama

4th ~ 68% black, 7th ~ 65% black

No deviation above +48

Yes in a sane world, that would be the kind of map implemented, but since Republicans have basically been shut out of the debate, it's likely that there will be yet another ugly gerrymander. Maryland should really take to California's example and push for a redistricting commission. In fact, seeing that compact districts would benefit the GOP in Maryland, they should be pushing for a ballot initiative.

[krazen1211]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/for-prince-georges-redistricting-prompts-questions-of-identity/2011/07/26/gIQA1pRSbI_blog.html

Black, white, Democrat and Republican, residents of Prince George’s County on Monday delivered a single unifying message to the redistricting commission of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D): Keep a proud county whole.

Don’t slice and dice Prince George’s reliably Democratic population to help elect congressmen from less blue parts of the state, residents said. And to reelect incumbents to Annapolis, don’t carve up natural communities and neighborhoods, limiting residents’ ability to have a representative who fully understands their needs.





That should put an obstacle in front of the Hoyer plan.

I realize you're only programmed for blind partisan hackery, but do you really think that this is going to be an obstacle to the Democrats? Can you point to a single example of one-party control over redistricting being stymied by public outcry? Do you really think the Maryland Democratic Party, who passed one of the most gerrymandered maps in the country last time, is going to think twice this time because some people in one of the most reliably-Democratic counties demanded to be kept together?

The GOP in Washington state in 1980.

And of course West Virginia in 2010.

Another article hints at a 7-1 map, to the dismay of the blind partisan hacks.


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-western-maryland-redistricting-20110806,0,865855,full.story

Democrats eyeing Western Maryland
In redistricting, they see a chance to challenge Republican Bartlett

[redcommander]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/for-prince-georges-redistricting-prompts-questions-of-identity/2011/07/26/gIQA1pRSbI_blog.html

Black, white, Democrat and Republican, residents of Prince George’s County on Monday delivered a single unifying message to the redistricting commission of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D): Keep a proud county whole.

Don’t slice and dice Prince George’s reliably Democratic population to help elect congressmen from less blue parts of the state, residents said. And to reelect incumbents to Annapolis, don’t carve up natural communities and neighborhoods, limiting residents’ ability to have a representative who fully understands their needs.





That should put an obstacle in front of the Hoyer plan.

I realize you're only programmed for blind partisan hackery, but do you really think that this is going to be an obstacle to the Democrats? Can you point to a single example of one-party control over redistricting being stymied by public outcry? Do you really think the Maryland Democratic Party, who passed one of the most gerrymandered maps in the country last time, is going to think twice this time because some people in one of the most reliably-Democratic counties demanded to be kept together?

The GOP in Washington state in 1980.

And of course West Virginia in 2010.

Another article hints at a 7-1 map, to the dismay of the blind partisan hacks.


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-western-maryland-redistricting-20110806,0,865855,full.story

Democrats eyeing Western Maryland
In redistricting, they see a chance to challenge Republican Bartlett

Great probably another ugly a$@ gerrymander. Just what the state needs.

[minionofmidas]

Well, it's an ugly ass state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My attempt at 8-0:




This would have dummymander potential if the Maryland GOP wasn't so comically incompetent, but as they are...

MD-01: 52% McCain but averages 50.5% Dem average, designed for a moderate Dem from the Eastern Shore like Kratovil to beat a far right Republican. Southeast Baltimore County by the way has a pretty interesting underrun for Obama from the generic Dem numbers, and Obama underran Kerry in many precincts...so it's obvious what's happening there. I'm betting this mostly on that they'd go for such a moderate Democrat.

MD-02: 54.3% for both Obama and generic Dem numbers, Ruppersberger is fine with his Baltimore County personal vote and even with a surprise retirement it's not likely to flip.

MD-03: 53.4% Obama, over 56% for generic Dems, Sarbanes kind of benefits from the lack of any area where a GOP candidate could have a base of support and drive up numbers. He wins.

MD-04: 53.8% black VAP, "only" 77% Obama now, won't matter obviously.

MD-05: This wouldn't have to be so ugly if it wasn't for Hoyer, the Democrats could easily just add the rural areas to the ultra-black parts of Prince George's and have the second black seat, but Hoyer lives there. So the Hispanic and liberal white parts of Prince George's are added via that appendage, and the seat is still only 42.2% white VAP, but that's the plurality, and Hoyer will not be primaried.

MD-06: 52.8% Obama. Not exactly overwhelming, but this is Maryland. Bartlett is out of the seat though that wasn't deliberate, I removed Frederick so MD-02 could absorb more exurbs without becoming in danger, Bartlett is ancient and should retire anyway.

MD-07: 51.4% Obama, while the rural areas to the east of Prince George's dilute the Obama percentage to the low 70s, it's not like Edwards would still stand a chance of losing.

MD-08: 69.8% Obama, absorbs rural western Howard county which is still Republican and some Carroll County areas. Van Hollen isn't in trouble.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Hoyer is willing to move you can combine northern Prince George's with rural Anne Arundel and get a similar district partisan and demographic-wise that looks nicer, and put the rural southern areas in the second black district.

That map is still less ugly than the current map though.

[Brittain33]

Maryland looks the way it does because it lost every single border dispute it ever had, including a costly one with Delaware.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maryland looks the way it does because it lost every single border dispute it ever had, including a costly one with Delaware.

It's the Serbia of U.S states.

[Brittain33]

Maryland looks the way it does because it lost every single border dispute it ever had, including a costly one with Delaware.

It's the Serbia of U.S states.

I also think of Romania in early 1941 after Hitler's Vienna Awards gave away chunks of territory to Hungary and Bulgaria and Stalin rolled his armies up to the Prut.

[timothyinMD]

I continue to tinker with the lines in MD, cuz it's the state I know the best.

I was going for making minor changes to 4 - Edwards, 5 - Hoyer, and 8 - Van Hollen.

I tried to restore 1 - Harris, 2 - Ruppersberger, 3 - Sarbanes and 6 - Bartlett to something that resembles the 1991-2001 map.  (Included below)




1  McCain 56.7%
2  McCain 55.0%
3  Obama 62.8%
4  Obama 90.2%
5  Obama 67.8%
6  McCain 56.9%
7  Obama 86.8%
8  Obama 69.3%

1  79.8% white
2  76.8% white
3  55.8% white, 25.9% black
4  58.1% black, 20.6% hispanic, 13.8% white
5  45.1% white  39.7% black, 7.5% hispanic
6  83.9% white
7  63.6% black, 27.6% white
8  54.8% white  15.2% asian, 14.3% hispanic, 12.5% black

5 majority white, 2 majority black, 1 multi-race majority

Funny thing I noticed at the end.  Without trying I have a pair of districts that are +36 and -36 and a pair that are +33 and -33.  Go figure

[krazen1211]

Leaked map. Quite effective.

http://www.marylandjuice.com/2011/09/leaked-map-of-marylands-2012.html

1: 35
2: 55
3: 56
4: 80
5: 60
6: 57
7: 63
8: 64

Obama:
1: 40
2. 61
3. 62
4. 83
5. 63
6. 63
7. 70
8. 67

[Platypus]

Non-Partisan:



CD1 (Blue): -46; 78.0% White; 57.0% McCain
CD2 (Orange): +56; 64.7% White; 54.2% Obama
CD3 (Lime): -62; 55.8% Black; 79.4% Obama
CD4 (Red) +9; 61.3% Black; 88.8% Obama
CD5 (Yellow): +58; 59.9% White; 59.0% Obama
CD6 (Green): +21; 79.3% White; 53.0% McCain
CD7 (Black): -42; 55.1% White; 60.2% Obama
CD8 (Violet): -4; 49.9% White plurality; 73.1% Obama

Summary:

2 strong majority (55%+) Black districts
1 majority-minority district, white plurality
5 strong majority (55%+) White districts
4 safe democrat (60%+ Obama) districts
1 strong democrat (55%+ Obama) district
1 lean democrat (50%+ Obama) district
1 lean republican (50%+ McCain) district
1 strong republican (55%+ McCain) district

Max. deviation 68/100, average deviation 38.500/50.000, all districts truly contiguous, 4 counties split.

[Torie]

Maybe the Pubs should send a telegram to the MD Dems, that if they kill off a Pubbie in MD, Cooper in TN is finished. An semi-erose go for the kill map will be passed in TN. Just a thought. And I just drew one (not yet posted; my prior map was more "gentlemanly." I'm serious. I feel a bit bad. Cooper is a throughly decent man. I feel unclean. But the MD Dems are being a bit piggish. It's time to retaliate.

[Mr.Phips]

Maybe the Pubs should send a telegram to the MD Dems, that if they kill off a Pubbie in MD, Cooper in TN is finished. An semi-erose go for the kill map will be passed in TN. Just a thought. And I just drew one (not yet posted; my prior map was more "gentlemanly." I'm serious. I feel a bit bad. Cooper is a throughly decent man. I feel unclean. But the MD Dems are being a bit piggish. It's time to retaliate.

Look what the Republicans did in Georgia to Barrow.  I think getting rid of a Republican in Maryland is simply retaliation for that.  There was no need to eliminate Barrow.  In fact, his seat could have been easily made black majority. 

[DrScholl]

Republicans are doing most of the redistricting this cycle and have already eliminated Democrats, it can't be expected that Democrats aren't going to take advantage where they can. It's not like Republicans in other states would not eliminate Democrats in fair maps happened in Dem controlled states.

[Torie]

Well then if it were me, I would feel a lot better about finishing off Cooper in Tennessee, and he can be finished off totally without risk to existing GOP incumbents, if one is willing to do the requisite number of county chops and erosity. I guess what I am suggesting is interstate compacts. Illinois Dems leash themselves and NC Pubbies do and so forth, so even though the final national numbers don't change much, we get some civility and reason with these maps. As it is, what we have is what we have, and it's disgusting. Yes, I know I'm fantasizing. One can be stoned without being nutter. 

But the MD thing does annoy me, and it does make me feel better what I am doing to Cooper. And thus my comment. I would prefer neither be done. Both western MD and Nashville are natural CD's for their respective parties. But it appears that both "natural" CD's are going down the drain. Does that make anyone feel the least bit unclean? Does anyone feel like they need a shower?

[dpmapper]

Maybe the Pubs should send a telegram to the MD Dems, that if they kill off a Pubbie in MD, Cooper in TN is finished. An semi-erose go for the kill map will be passed in TN. Just a thought. And I just drew one (not yet posted; my prior map was more "gentlemanly." I'm serious. I feel a bit bad. Cooper is a throughly decent man. I feel unclean. But the MD Dems are being a bit piggish. It's time to retaliate.

Look what the Republicans did in Georgia to Barrow.  I think getting rid of a Republican in Maryland is simply retaliation for that.  There was no need to eliminate Barrow.  In fact, his seat could have been easily made black majority. 

Barrow is a pretty bad example, actually, since what they did was make Savannah whole.  The new map in southeast Georgia actually respects COI more than it used to.   

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Maybe the Pubs should send a telegram to the MD Dems, that if they kill off a Pubbie in MD, Cooper in TN is finished. An semi-erose go for the kill map will be passed in TN. Just a thought. And I just drew one (not yet posted; my prior map was more "gentlemanly." I'm serious. I feel a bit bad. Cooper is a throughly decent man. I feel unclean. But the MD Dems are being a bit piggish. It's time to retaliate.

After the Ohio monstrosity, I'd accept nothing less than the following as a Maryland Democrat.

Why fight over getting rid of Bartlett or Harris when you can do both? A lot of thin connections here, but the current map has those as well.



MD-01 - 49.6 McCain, 48.7 Obama. Good fit for Kratovil.
MD-02 - 57.2 Obama, 40.8 McCain.
MD-03 - 58.8 Obama, 39.0 McCain.
MD-04 - 80.8 Obama, 18.3 McCain, 54.2% black VAP.
MD-05 - 65.3 Obama, 33.5 McCain.
MD-06 - 54.8 Obama, 43.5 McCain. Maybe not safe, but Republicans are so weak in Montgomery County that it would be pretty close to safe.
MD-07 - 65.5 Obama, 32.8 McCain, 50.8% black VAP. The trick is to put the uber-Republican northern suburbs of Baltimore here, I think.
MD-08 - 63.1 Obama, 35.3 McCain.

[muon2]

Maybe the Pubs should send a telegram to the MD Dems, that if they kill off a Pubbie in MD, Cooper in TN is finished. An semi-erose go for the kill map will be passed in TN. Just a thought. And I just drew one (not yet posted; my prior map was more "gentlemanly." I'm serious. I feel a bit bad. Cooper is a throughly decent man. I feel unclean. But the MD Dems are being a bit piggish. It's time to retaliate.

After the Ohio monstrosity, I'd accept nothing less than the following as a Maryland Democrat.

Why fight over getting rid of Bartlett or Harris when you can do both? A lot of thin connections here, but the current map has those as well.



MD-01 - 49.6 McCain, 48.7 Obama. Good fit for Kratovil.
MD-02 - 57.2 Obama, 40.8 McCain.
MD-03 - 58.8 Obama, 39.0 McCain.
MD-04 - 80.8 Obama, 18.3 McCain, 54.2% black VAP.
MD-05 - 65.3 Obama, 33.5 McCain.
MD-06 - 54.8 Obama, 43.5 McCain. Maybe not safe, but Republicans are so weak in Montgomery County that it would be pretty close to safe.
MD-07 - 65.5 Obama, 32.8 McCain, 50.8% black VAP. The trick is to put the uber-Republican northern suburbs of Baltimore here, I think.
MD-08 - 63.1 Obama, 35.3 McCain.

This all reminds me of Cold War nuclear escalation.

The IN and WI maps from the GOP were fairly modest (just ask Torie ). Then came the IL offering from the Dems, and GOP'ers wanted revenge. Now there's OH and the Dems want to retaliate. From the posts I'd guess that MD will prompt more escalating comments. Oh well.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well then if it were me, I would feel a lot better about finishing off Cooper in Tennessee, and he can be finished off totally without risk to existing GOP incumbents, if one is willing to do the requisite number of county chops and erosity. I guess what I am suggesting is interstate compacts. Illinois Dems leash themselves and NC Pubbies do and so forth, so even though the final national numbers don't change much, we get some civility and reason with these maps. As it is, what we have is what we have, and it's disgusting. Yes, I know I'm fantasizing. One can be stoned without being nutter. 

But the MD thing does annoy me, and it does make me feel better what I am doing to Cooper. And thus my comment. I would prefer neither be done. Both western MD and Nashville are natural CD's for their respective parties. But it appears that both "natural" CD's are going down the drain. Does that make anyone feel the least bit unclean? Does anyone feel like they need a shower?

Not that this isn't a Democratic gerrymander (it is), but we should remember that it could've been a worse gerrymander.  I have seen several solid maps on sites such as DKE that would eliminate both Bartlett and Harris.  In all honesty, I don't have much sympathy for Illinois Republicans or North Carolina Democrats given the previous maps in those states.  Ohio is easily the worst map so far, imo (although Michigan is also pretty bad).  Regarding Tennessee/Cooper, I agree with those who have said that this could just as easily be viewed as payback for Barrow.