US House Redistricting: Maryland

[minionofmidas]

Hitchcock said the panel worked with “a delegation map that is currently convoluted in its configuration. Everyone wanted to do our best to correct that.”

Lol. Couldn't agree more to the first sentence, can't see any evidence of the latter.

[minionofmidas]

Lol.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps they were inspired by the coastline

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

Pussies. Republicans would've gone straight for the throat.

[Brittain33]

Right now, with Texas's map suspended, I'd say MD-3 is tied with Stivers's Ohio district as the worst in the country. Florida hasn't redistricted yet, though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Right now, with Texas's map suspended, I'd say MD-3 is tied with Stivers's Ohio district as the worst in the country. Florida hasn't redistricted yet, though.

I'd say Stiver's district is still the worst

[Nhoj]

Right now, with Texas's map suspended, I'd say MD-3 is tied with Stivers's Ohio district as the worst in the country. Florida hasn't redistricted yet, though.

Florida has that fair redistricting thing that they are suppose to adhere to at least. Who knows if they somehow manage to overturn it though...

[Sbane]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

I'd estimate that at 55-56% Obama... more than enough to flip it.

Not surprising, another disgusting Maryland gerrymander.

Absolutely no reason to rip up Carroll County.

I drew a much nicer looking 7-1 map. Believe it's in this thread. I think there is something wrong with Maryland Democrats when it comes to redistricting. They just can't help going crazy. And it's more like a 6-1-1 map anyways. Hilarious.

[Torie]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

I'd estimate that at 55-56% Obama... more than enough to flip it.

Not surprising, another disgusting Maryland gerrymander.

Absolutely no reason to rip up Carroll County.

I drew a much nicer looking 7-1 map. Believe it's in this thread. I think there is something wrong with Maryland Democrats when it comes to redistricting. They just can't help going crazy. And it's more like a 6-1-1 map anyways. Hilarious.

You agree that the Western MD CD that the Dems tried to "steal" which motivated me to lash out in Tennessee is only 55%-56% Obama?  If so that is ludicrous. That is very close to a toss-up CD for 2012, particularly if the number is 55%.  The Dem incumbents must have had a rather "selfish" little agenda, and want CD's where they can just dial it in. I of course as the Dem ring master would have told them to just go F themselves.  I think when I did this exercise way back when, or Johnny did it, a 59% Obama CD could have been somewhat "reasonably" drawn, but maybe my recollection fails me.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

I'd estimate that at 55-56% Obama... more than enough to flip it.

Not surprising, another disgusting Maryland gerrymander.

Absolutely no reason to rip up Carroll County.

I drew a much nicer looking 7-1 map. Believe it's in this thread. I think there is something wrong with Maryland Democrats when it comes to redistricting. They just can't help going crazy. And it's more like a 6-1-1 map anyways. Hilarious.

They're like Ohio Republicans. They don't need to draw a disgusting-looking map to achieve their goals, but they do it anyway because they can. It's just a little extra " F*** you" to the other side.

[Sbane]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

I'd estimate that at 55-56% Obama... more than enough to flip it.

Not surprising, another disgusting Maryland gerrymander.

Absolutely no reason to rip up Carroll County.

I drew a much nicer looking 7-1 map. Believe it's in this thread. I think there is something wrong with Maryland Democrats when it comes to redistricting. They just can't help going crazy. And it's more like a 6-1-1 map anyways. Hilarious.

You agree that the Western MD CD that the Dems tried to "steal" which motivated me to lash out in Tennessee is only 55%-56% Obama?  If so that is ludicrous. That is very close to a toss-up CD for 2012, particularly if the number is 55%.  The Dem incumbents must have had a rather "selfish" little agenda, and want CD's where they can just dial it in. I of course as the Dem ring master would have told them to just go F themselves.   I think when I did this exercise way back when, or Johnny did it, a 59% Obama CD could have been somewhat "reasonably" drawn, but maybe my recollection fails me.

I have no clue about the partisan breakdown. I just took Timothy at his word. And yeah, either the Dems are selfish, or they are dumb as rocks and can't draw a decent map, or both. Probably both.

[krazen1211]

I drew it at about 56% Obama as well, 55% average Dem. Safe 9 years out of 10; just seems silly not to make it 10 out of 10.

[timothyinMD]

Damn I'm good.  I guessed earlier when I said it was 56% Obama and I was right.  It's about 56-42.   This is not a 6-1-1 map.  This is a 7-1 map.  50% of the districts population is Montgomery county and that portion voted 75% Obama.  They tailor made this seat for Rob Garagiola.

Speaker Busch has some serious audacity 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

[timothyinMD]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Actually us Maryland Republican can compete just fine when the districts aren't grotesquely gerrymandered. 

[Torie]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Presumably Bartlett will retire don't you think?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Actually us Maryland Republican can compete just fine when the districts aren't grotesquely gerrymandered. 

Mostly not gerrymandered (though the distribution of seats in separate districts or multi-member ones obviously benefits the Democrats and that one seat on the Eastern Shore) and plenty of "naturally" Republican districts held by Democrats or with a split delegation.

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Presumably Bartlett will retire don't you think?

Probably.

[timothyinMD]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Actually us Maryland Republican can compete just fine when the districts aren't grotesquely gerrymandered. 

Mostly not gerrymandered (though the distribution of seats in separate districts or multi-member ones obviously benefits the Democrats and that one seat on the Eastern Shore) and plenty of "naturally" Republican districts held by Democrats or with a split delegation.

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Presumably Bartlett will retire don't you think?

Probably.

Strip out Baltimore City, Montgomery, Prince George's and Charles counties.  They are heavily Democrat and not competitive whatsoever.  Aside from that we're competitive.  The Allegany, Washington, Cecil, Baltimore, St Mary's county Democrats have been in there forever.  They get in on their tenure and their name.   Dems got really lucky in 2010, they won a lot of close races.

[Sbane]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Actually us Maryland Republican can compete just fine when the districts aren't grotesquely gerrymandered. 

Mostly not gerrymandered (though the distribution of seats in separate districts or multi-member ones obviously benefits the Democrats and that one seat on the Eastern Shore) and plenty of "naturally" Republican districts held by Democrats or with a split delegation.

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Presumably Bartlett will retire don't you think?

Probably.

Strip out Baltimore City, Montgomery, Prince George's and Charles counties.  They are heavily Democrat and not competitive whatsoever.  Aside from that we're competitive.  The Allegany, Washington, Cecil, Baltimore, St Mary's county Democrats have been in there forever.  They get in on their tenure and their name.   Dems got really lucky in 2010, they won a lot of close races.

Those four counties/cities make up 45% of the population of MD. And a county like Howard county is pretty much Dem as well, and that makes a majority. Nicely sums up the Republicans problem in the state.

[timothyinMD]

Duh.  Hence why Md is a Democrat state.

And by the way, Howard County only became solid Democrat when it jumped up to being the 3rd richest county in America.  12-15 years ago it was middle of the road.  Now full of rich liberal government workers, just like Charles county

[Sbane]

Duh.  Hence why Md is a Democrat state.

And by the way, Howard County only became solid Democrat when it jumped up to being the 3rd richest county in America.  12-15 years ago it was middle of the road.  Now full of rich liberal government workers, just like Charles county

Government workers probably do have something to do with it, but I think there's a fair amount of white collar jobs around too. Can't say a metro area with 6 million odd people is all government workers. These are the professional class that moved left on social issues. Also see Montgomery County, PA.

[Torie]

Duh.  Hence why Md is a Democrat state.

And by the way, Howard County only became solid Democrat when it jumped up to being the 3rd richest county in America.  12-15 years ago it was middle of the road.  Now full of rich liberal government workers, just like Charles county

Government workers probably do have something to do with it, but I think there's a fair amount of white collar jobs around too. Can't say a metro area with 6 million odd people is all government workers. These are the professional class that moved left on social issues. Also see Montgomery County, PA.

Not to totally depreciate your point, but a lot of those "non-government" workers, particularly white collar ones, work for outfits heavily dependent on government funding - and favors and good will.

[Brittain33]

I just saw the map plotted with incumbents' homes. If you think Massachusetts is bad for incumbents living within 128, this is worse.

http://twitpic.com/6utsqs

[redcommander]

Well O'Malley certainly outdid the 2001 maps in ugliness.

[minionofmidas]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Presumably Bartlett will retire don't you think?

If he knows what's good for him.

No real indication of that in his track record, though.