US House Redistricting: Maryland
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  US House Redistricting: Maryland
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Brittain33
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« Reply #275 on: October 16, 2011, 02:11:25 PM »

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-rep-donna-edwards-says-she-doesnt-support-current-redistricting-plan/2011/10/11/gIQAZnzPcL_story.html

 Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards said Tuesday she doesn’t support a redistricting plan in its current form because it doesn’t adequately represent minorities.

Yep. Dead and buried.

Black lawmakers poised to accept Md. redistricting plan

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/black-lawmakers-poised-to-accept-md-redistricting-plan/2011/10/14/gIQAkpE1mL_story.html

Over vehement objections from one of Maryland’s African American members of Congress, black state lawmakers on Saturday moved closer to endorsing a plan to lump 120,000 minority voters in Montgomery County into a mostly white district in Western Maryland to unseat the state’s senior Republican lawmaker.


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Brittain33
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« Reply #276 on: October 16, 2011, 02:16:45 PM »

A non-ugly 7-1 map isn't hard at all, though it would no doubt bother some individual reps. O'Malley and the leg leaders should just offer some personal incentives to some black legislators to guarantee their support for the map and then pass one and forget what the individuals in Congress whine about.

O'Malley and the Dems basically told the blacks, and hispanics, to shut up and go to the back of the bus.  It's actually pretty amusing

"Several black lawmakers from the Washington region and beyond, however, said Saturday that despite Edwards’s objections, they were swayed to endorse the plan because two of Maryland’s eight congressional districts would remain majority African American and that the state’s senior African American member of Congress, Baltimore’s Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D), supports the plan."

(from the Washington Post link above.)
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redcommander
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« Reply #277 on: October 16, 2011, 02:26:36 PM »

There needs to be a referendum. I can't think of an uglier gerrymander in recent memory. Even the 2001 districts were much better than this.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #278 on: October 16, 2011, 02:27:59 PM »

Donna Edwards is a true FF, but then that's not news.

And FF's don't tend to fare so greatly in American politics. Or those of any other country.

There needs to be a referendum. I can't think of an uglier gerrymander in recent memory. Even the 2001 districts were much better than this.
They were just as bad, really. That is to say, they were truly, utterly, horrid.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #279 on: October 16, 2011, 03:06:33 PM »

A non-ugly 7-1 map isn't hard at all, though it would no doubt bother some individual reps. O'Malley and the leg leaders should just offer some personal incentives to some black legislators to guarantee their support for the map and then pass one and forget what the individuals in Congress whine about.

O'Malley and the Dems basically told the blacks, and hispanics, to shut up and go to the back of the bus.  It's actually pretty amusing

"Several black lawmakers from the Washington region and beyond, however, said Saturday that despite Edwards’s objections, they were swayed to endorse the plan because two of Maryland’s eight congressional districts would remain majority African American and that the state’s senior African American member of Congress, Baltimore’s Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D), supports the plan."

(from the Washington Post link above.)

Headline should be:  Blacks, Hispanics defer to O'Malley to elect another White Democrat
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Brittain33
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« Reply #280 on: October 16, 2011, 03:31:07 PM »

A non-ugly 7-1 map isn't hard at all, though it would no doubt bother some individual reps. O'Malley and the leg leaders should just offer some personal incentives to some black legislators to guarantee their support for the map and then pass one and forget what the individuals in Congress whine about.

O'Malley and the Dems basically told the blacks, and hispanics, to shut up and go to the back of the bus.  It's actually pretty amusing

"Several black lawmakers from the Washington region and beyond, however, said Saturday that despite Edwards’s objections, they were swayed to endorse the plan because two of Maryland’s eight congressional districts would remain majority African American and that the state’s senior African American member of Congress, Baltimore’s Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D), supports the plan."

(from the Washington Post link above.)

Headline should be:  Blacks, Hispanics defer to O'Malley to elect another White Democrat

I'm sure they're pleased to have you speak on their behalf.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #281 on: October 16, 2011, 03:37:44 PM »

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-rep-donna-edwards-says-she-doesnt-support-current-redistricting-plan/2011/10/11/gIQAZnzPcL_story.html

 Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards said Tuesday she doesn’t support a redistricting plan in its current form because it doesn’t adequately represent minorities.

Yep. Dead and buried.

Black lawmakers poised to accept Md. redistricting plan

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/black-lawmakers-poised-to-accept-md-redistricting-plan/2011/10/14/gIQAkpE1mL_story.html

Over vehement objections from one of Maryland’s African American members of Congress, black state lawmakers on Saturday moved closer to endorsing a plan to lump 120,000 minority voters in Montgomery County into a mostly white district in Western Maryland to unseat the state’s senior Republican lawmaker.




Well, that stinks. Apparently Edwards is no Cleaver/Clay.
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« Reply #282 on: October 16, 2011, 03:41:33 PM »

Edwards got elected in 2008 winning a primary mostly with the support of white liberals, so that's not a shocker. I fail to see what she's concerned about anyway, there is still a 0% chance of losing the general in that district or the primary barring a scandal or the type of ethical issues that dogged Wynn.

As for the "OMG ALL THESE THOUSANDS OF MINORITIES ARE BEING USED TO ELECT A WHITE DEMOCRAT" nonsense, they currently live in MD-08 which elects Chris Van Hollen...a white Democrat. And in fact more minorities were pushed into the district in 2002 for exactly that purpose, defeat Connie Morella with a white Democrat, with no real complaints.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #283 on: October 16, 2011, 07:17:36 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2011, 07:30:57 PM by timothyinMD »

Nevertheless it's interesting to see who are the pet politicians of the Maryland Democrat party, of which 1/2 of the constituents are minorities.  In 2001 it was white men Dutch Ruppersburger and Chris Van Hollen  and in 2011 it's white man Rob Garagiola.  

If referendum is an option, I think the Md Republicans will attempt it.  Our referendum on the Dream act was an overwhelming success.  We can do that again.


This is the map that the Democrats fear:



Outside these 4 districts, the vote was 53-45% McCain. 


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Verily
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« Reply #284 on: October 17, 2011, 10:27:18 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2011, 10:28:53 AM by Verily »

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-rep-donna-edwards-says-she-doesnt-support-current-redistricting-plan/2011/10/11/gIQAZnzPcL_story.html

 Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards said Tuesday she doesn’t support a redistricting plan in its current form because it doesn’t adequately represent minorities.

Yep. Dead and buried.

Black lawmakers poised to accept Md. redistricting plan

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/black-lawmakers-poised-to-accept-md-redistricting-plan/2011/10/14/gIQAkpE1mL_story.html

Over vehement objections from one of Maryland’s African American members of Congress, black state lawmakers on Saturday moved closer to endorsing a plan to lump 120,000 minority voters in Montgomery County into a mostly white district in Western Maryland to unseat the state’s senior Republican lawmaker.




Well, that stinks. Apparently Edwards is no Cleaver/Clay.

Of course she isn't. She's not part of the establishment. She violated the ultimate taboo, running in a primary against an incumbent black politician (and winning!), and consequently has no friends in the state legislature.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #285 on: October 18, 2011, 06:03:12 PM »

O'Malley's plan passed the State Senate 33-13. One Democrat (Anthony Muse) voted against it.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #286 on: October 19, 2011, 05:36:54 PM »

Passed the House 91-46.
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BRTD
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« Reply #287 on: October 20, 2011, 01:14:58 AM »


LOL!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-rep-donna-edwards-says-she-doesnt-support-current-redistricting-plan/2011/10/11/gIQAZnzPcL_story.html

 Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards said Tuesday she doesn’t support a redistricting plan in its current form because it doesn’t adequately represent minorities.



Yep. Dead and buried.

LOL!

And kudos for Maryland's black legislators for almost universally ignoring the Al Sharptons of the state.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #288 on: October 22, 2011, 08:20:47 PM »

Am I the only one who thinks MD-02 (Ruppersberger) could be vulnerable by the end of the decade?  It has a lot of areas around Baltimore that are historically Dem but trended hard against Obama.

Thanks,

Richard
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Thomas D
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« Reply #289 on: October 23, 2011, 08:57:55 AM »

Am I the only one who thinks MD-02 (Ruppersberger) could be vulnerable by the end of the decade?  It has a lot of areas around Baltimore that are historically Dem but trended hard against Obama.

Thanks,

Richard

Maybe in a wave year. But he's pretty well liked in the area.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #290 on: October 23, 2011, 11:48:07 AM »

Am I the only one who thinks MD-02 (Ruppersberger) could be vulnerable by the end of the decade?  It has a lot of areas around Baltimore that are historically Dem but trended hard against Obama.

Thanks,

Richard

He got 64% in 2010.  I dont think so.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #291 on: October 23, 2011, 12:21:19 PM »

MD-02 doesn't really have much territory that went "hard against Obama". Parts of southeastern Baltimore County and the bit that snakes up north to Ruppersburger's home, I guess, but Ruppersberger is a popular guy in BaltCo, being a former County Executive, so he should have little trouble there. Plus they redrew the district to drop some parts of Anne Arundel and snake down into Fort Meade and eastern Howard County, which should raise the Dem performance a bit.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #292 on: October 23, 2011, 08:54:52 PM »

Looking back on the discussion made me try a nice, clean, compact map that's also solidly 6-2 Dem:



MD-01 (blue) - 57.2 McCain
MD-02 (green) - 57.2 Obama
MD-03 (purple) - 59.4 Obama
MD-04 (red) - 88.9 Obama, 60.9% black VAP
MD-05 (yellow) - 58.9 Obama
MD-06 (teal) - 55.3 McCain
MD-07 (grey) - 81.2 Obama, 53.7% black VAP
MD-08 (light purple) - 72.4 Obama
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redcommander
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« Reply #293 on: October 24, 2011, 02:06:52 AM »

Looking back on the discussion made me try a nice, clean, compact map that's also solidly 6-2 Dem:



MD-01 (blue) - 57.2 McCain
MD-02 (green) - 57.2 Obama
MD-03 (purple) - 59.4 Obama
MD-04 (red) - 88.9 Obama, 60.9% black VAP
MD-05 (yellow) - 58.9 Obama
MD-06 (teal) - 55.3 McCain
MD-07 (grey) - 81.2 Obama, 53.7% black VAP
MD-08 (light purple) - 72.4 Obama


JohnnyLongtorso why couldn't O'Malley recruit you for his redistricting commission? Your map is clean, but also maintains the Democrats control on the delegation (Although the GOP could win the MD 2 district if it was an open seat). The main criticism I believe the GOP and activist groups are saying in their lawsuit is that the new maps don't create a third minority majority district.
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Verily
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« Reply #294 on: October 24, 2011, 11:07:20 AM »

Johnny's map wouldn't have happened regardless because it combines Sarbanes and Ruppersberger into one district. They're the main reason the current 6-2 map is so messy to begin with.
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« Reply #295 on: October 24, 2011, 10:55:08 PM »

Considering Sarbanes wasn't even a rep then, no it's not. The main reason is how intent the Democrats were on making a seat that Ehlrich could not possibly win.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #296 on: October 25, 2011, 09:46:52 AM »

Considering Sarbanes wasn't even a rep then, no it's not. The main reason is how intent the Democrats were on making a seat that Ehlrich could not possibly win.
Isn't Ben Cardin also from Baltimore? Somebody have a link to the 90s map?
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Verily
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« Reply #297 on: October 25, 2011, 09:51:08 AM »

Considering Sarbanes wasn't even a rep then, no it's not. The main reason is how intent the Democrats were on making a seat that Ehlrich could not possibly win.

Cardin and Sarbanes live less than five miles from each other, and both are less than ten miles from Ruppersberger. Same difference. The point is that the current 6-2 map was drawn the way it was drawn to elect two white Democrats and one black Democrat from the Baltimore area, which isn't possible without serious gerrymandering.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #298 on: October 25, 2011, 08:26:35 PM »

It requires some gerrymandering to be sure, but nothing nearly as crazy as what they have now. If there's going to be two white D districts in the Baltimore area, there's no good reason why one of them shouldn't be just in the east of the metro and one just in the west.

Just for the sake of showing the formal possibility of this - on the map following, grey is 50.8% black by VAP, both other districts are right on 60.0% Obama, and the area right north of the city line is drawn so that Sarbanes's house in Towson is in the western (purple) district and Ruppersberger's house in Cockeysville is in the eastern (green) one. In reality, if you thought (probably rightly) that Cummings would like a couple more % black and Ruppersberger could handle going down to 57/58 or so, you could switch some black areas in E Baltimore City, but this doesn't really affect the basic principle.

Why both of the two white districts have to be both in the east and the west of the metro area, and thus snaking all over the place like mad, is really one of the most baffling things in the whole country. I understand it less than Stivers' loop-the-loop job in south-central Ohio.

(I'd also second Lewis's request that the 1990's map would be interesting).

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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #299 on: October 25, 2011, 08:45:18 PM »

FWIW, that map would have put Cardin and Ruppersberger in the same district in 2000, so it's not "perfect", but the point is well made.
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