US House Redistricting: Maryland

[Verily]

Try putting Cecil County in MD-06, Hagerstown in MD-08 and more of MontCo in MD-01. You can get MD-01 up to 59% Obama or so while keeping MD-08 in the 65% Obama range.

[Verily]

Try putting Cecil County in MD-06, Hagerstown in MD-08 and more of MontCo in MD-01. You can get MD-01 up to 59% Obama or so while keeping MD-08 in the 65% Obama range.

It's possible, but I highly doubt the legislature is going to split up the Eastern Shore just to push MD-01 a couple more points to the Democrats.

Cecil County isn't really the Eastern Shore. It has more in common with Harford County, Carroll County and the rural parts of Baltimore County.

Also, what makes you think Maryland Democrats hold anything sacred, given their current map?

[Verily]

As long as it's just Cecil, it might do.

Then again, it's not clear whether it's actually in their best interests to do it. You want that district to nominate a moderateish Eastern Shore Democrat who can breeze through the general, not some Liberal from Howard County against whom the Eastern Shore Republican outperforms generic R.

Not if it's 59% Obama. Then you don't care who the Democrats nominate (within reason)--certainly no need for a moderate in such a seat. Not like Obama did well on the Eastern Shore, either.

[Verily]

Regional concerns matter, especially for those 50k blacks stuck in the Eastern Shore district if you draw it into PG.

Instead they should just run CD-1 over to Carroll County and grab all the 60% McCain precincts.

Political considerations would almost certainly mean the PG voters would be mostly Hispanics rather than blacks, and Hispanics have no real political influence in Maryland.

[Verily]

Here's a fun map. Nobody likes the Eastern Shore anyway.

MD-04 is 52% black VAP. MD-07 is 51% black VAP. All seats are at least 61% Obama (MD-05 is the least), save MD-06, which is 63% McCain. The totally redesigned MD-01 is 70% Obama.

[Verily]

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001.  

On principle, I agree. However, my map was intended to be an intellectual excercise on what a Democratic gerrymander would look like with a requirement of three black-majority districts. It was in no way intended to be a serious proposal, a prediction of what will be done, or an argument as to what should be done.

The useless organization known as the Maryland GOP has proposed a map that appears to have 3 black districts.

http://mdgop.org/mdgop-releases-new-congressional-lines/

Not bad, but that 2nd district seems unnecessarily erose. Why not take northern Baltimore County instead of going into Howard?

You probably have to split Howard County again if you do that. So, either way, one of Howard County and Baltimore County gets an extra split.

Anyway, it's definitely not three black districts. That MD-04 might be plurality black, but it's definitely nowhere near majority. My guess is around 33% white, 32% black, 25% Hispanic, 10% Asian/other

The hop from MD-01 across the Chesapeake is supremely bizarre, too.

[Verily]

The cross-bay hop is not bizarre.  The 1st district has crossed the bay for the last 30 some years.  If you add Harford Co to the 9 eastern shore counties, they are 27,642 people short of one district.

Just because it's been that way for a long time does not make it not bizarre. Although it is particularly odd because doing so is also not really to the Maryland GOP's benefit (at least in this case--they might have made it to their benefit if the bay-hop took in Annapolis).

[Verily]

Who says Roscoe wants two solid GOP seats? Clearly he and the Blacks conspiring spells 7-1 with Harris replaced by a Black to me! (Seriously... would such a map be possible? Hoyer and Ruppersberger would probably have to take quite marginal districts and share the Eastern Shore between them.)

If you're willing to jump the Chesapeake without a bridge and then wind your way up the Potomac, you could connect the more racially mixed parts of the Eastern Shore (in the south) to PG County to create a third black district. That's probably the most Democratic-efficient way to produce a third one.

[Verily]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-rep-donna-edwards-says-she-doesnt-support-current-redistricting-plan/2011/10/11/gIQAZnzPcL_story.html

 Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards said Tuesday she doesn’t support a redistricting plan in its current form because it doesn’t adequately represent minorities.

Yep. Dead and buried.

Black lawmakers poised to accept Md. redistricting plan

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/black-lawmakers-poised-to-accept-md-redistricting-plan/2011/10/14/gIQAkpE1mL_story.html

Over vehement objections from one of Maryland’s African American members of Congress, black state lawmakers on Saturday moved closer to endorsing a plan to lump 120,000 minority voters in Montgomery County into a mostly white district in Western Maryland to unseat the state’s senior Republican lawmaker.

Well, that stinks. Apparently Edwards is no Cleaver/Clay.

Of course she isn't. She's not part of the establishment. She violated the ultimate taboo, running in a primary against an incumbent black politician (and winning!), and consequently has no friends in the state legislature.

[Verily]

Johnny's map wouldn't have happened regardless because it combines Sarbanes and Ruppersberger into one district. They're the main reason the current 6-2 map is so messy to begin with.

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Considering Sarbanes wasn't even a rep then, no it's not. The main reason is how intent the Democrats were on making a seat that Ehlrich could not possibly win.

Cardin and Sarbanes live less than five miles from each other, and both are less than ten miles from Ruppersberger. Same difference. The point is that the current 6-2 map was drawn the way it was drawn to elect two white Democrats and one black Democrat from the Baltimore area, which isn't possible without serious gerrymandering.

[Verily]

FWIW, that map would have put Cardin and Ruppersberger in the same district in 2000, so it's not "perfect", but the point is well made.