US House Redistricting: Maryland

[Brittain33]

If he's so unlikable, and I believe he is, they'll put his hometown north of Baltimore into Bartlett's or Ruppersberger's district to strand him while leaving MD-1 a strongly Republican district. I don't think they're going to go the lengths needed for a 7-1 map.

[Brittain33]

Torie, I've noticed that you've identified veto points in states where Dems control the process or have significant influence (Maryland [black reps insisting on high VAP], Illinois [Schakowsky complaining about getting a less hardcore D district], to some extent New York [the whole upstate discussion about whom to sacrifice, Hinchey's friends in the assembly protecting him]) that will keep Dems from realizing gains when they have an opportunity. But in Republican-controlled states, you've not only drawn maps for maximum sustainable Republican advantage, you've done so in a way that breaks up longstanding geographic patterns in places like York/Lancaster PA and eastern Wisconsin. I'm not saying that a Republican majority in Wisconsin won't go for maximum gain, or that Penn. Republicans might not go even further than they did in 2002 and reconfigure solid R districts to share the wealth, but doesn't it seem challenging to believe that it's all-clear for Republicans and they will go all-out in their states, but none of the Dems will? This is a separate issue from whether you've drawn the best possible maps for those states for maximizing sustainable Republican gain, which I easily believe is true.

[Brittain33]

Maryland looks the way it does because it lost every single border dispute it ever had, including a costly one with Delaware.

[Brittain33]

Maryland looks the way it does because it lost every single border dispute it ever had, including a costly one with Delaware.

It's the Serbia of U.S states.

I also think of Romania in early 1941 after Hitler's Vienna Awards gave away chunks of territory to Hungary and Bulgaria and Stalin rolled his armies up to the Prut.

[Brittain33]

The idea that Dems are to blame for Republicans going for maximal advantage, or that Republicans interested in gerrymandering would hold off if they could work out an agreement with Dems in another state, is very hard to take seriously.

The IL Dem map didn't invent gerrymandering in this cycle, much less in this decade. State parties that want to play hardball and have the discipline and motivation to do so, are doing so. That's all there is to it.

[Brittain33]

As is the claim that the Republicans are to blame for the Democrats gerrymandering Illinois.

Can you link to anyone making that claim? If they did, that's dumb. If they just said, "don't complain about Illinois, Republicans did it elsewhere," I hope the difference is clear...

[Brittain33]

The difference is that we earned our 13-5 majority in Ohio at the ballot box, and their new map eliminates one Democrat and one Republican.  Sounds fair to me.

Can you look at the map and say "that makes sense"?

[Brittain33]

They chickened.

[Brittain33]

Hard to believe Maryland used to have a 4-4 delegation on a 5-3 map.

[Brittain33]

Right now, with Texas's map suspended, I'd say MD-3 is tied with Stivers's Ohio district as the worst in the country. Florida hasn't redistricted yet, though.

[Brittain33]

I just saw the map plotted with incumbents' homes. If you think Massachusetts is bad for incumbents living within 128, this is worse.

http://twitpic.com/6utsqs

[Brittain33]

So since O'Malley's proposal is likely finished now, is there a chance the compact district proposal by Republicans has a chance?

No.

[Brittain33]

O'Malley's follow-up map was leaked. Very minor changes.

[Brittain33]

SECTION 1. (a) The people reserve to themselves power known as The Referendum, by petition to have submitted to the registered voters of the State, to approve or reject at the polls, any Act, or part of any Act of the General Assembly, if approved by the Governor, or, if passed by the General Assembly over the veto of the Governor;



Hmm.

What are the petition requirements for Maryland in terms of signatures? It would be a massive blow to the Dems if that happened, I agree. This map is so ugly I expect it would get defeated easily.

[Brittain33]

of whom not more than half are residents of Baltimore City

That anachronism is kind of amusing and sad.

[Brittain33]

of whom not more than half are residents of Baltimore City

That anachronism is kind of amusing and sad.

You omitted the rest of that sentence... "of Baltimore City, or any one County"

In retrospect, I did read too much into it--I assume it was structured that way because a long time ago Baltimore City did represent a huge proportion of the state as a whole and the rest of the state may have wanted to reduce its power, but that's not necessarily required by the language.

[Brittain33]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-rep-donna-edwards-says-she-doesnt-support-current-redistricting-plan/2011/10/11/gIQAZnzPcL_story.html

 Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards said Tuesday she doesn’t support a redistricting plan in its current form because it doesn’t adequately represent minorities.

Yep. Dead and buried.

Black lawmakers poised to accept Md. redistricting plan

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/black-lawmakers-poised-to-accept-md-redistricting-plan/2011/10/14/gIQAkpE1mL_story.html

Over vehement objections from one of Maryland’s African American members of Congress, black state lawmakers on Saturday moved closer to endorsing a plan to lump 120,000 minority voters in Montgomery County into a mostly white district in Western Maryland to unseat the state’s senior Republican lawmaker.

[Brittain33]

A non-ugly 7-1 map isn't hard at all, though it would no doubt bother some individual reps. O'Malley and the leg leaders should just offer some personal incentives to some black legislators to guarantee their support for the map and then pass one and forget what the individuals in Congress whine about.

O'Malley and the Dems basically told the blacks, and hispanics, to shut up and go to the back of the bus.  It's actually pretty amusing

"Several black lawmakers from the Washington region and beyond, however, said Saturday that despite Edwards’s objections, they were swayed to endorse the plan because two of Maryland’s eight congressional districts would remain majority African American and that the state’s senior African American member of Congress, Baltimore’s Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D), supports the plan."

(from the Washington Post link above.)

[Brittain33]

A non-ugly 7-1 map isn't hard at all, though it would no doubt bother some individual reps. O'Malley and the leg leaders should just offer some personal incentives to some black legislators to guarantee their support for the map and then pass one and forget what the individuals in Congress whine about.

O'Malley and the Dems basically told the blacks, and hispanics, to shut up and go to the back of the bus.  It's actually pretty amusing

"Several black lawmakers from the Washington region and beyond, however, said Saturday that despite Edwards’s objections, they were swayed to endorse the plan because two of Maryland’s eight congressional districts would remain majority African American and that the state’s senior African American member of Congress, Baltimore’s Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D), supports the plan."

(from the Washington Post link above.)

Headline should be:  Blacks, Hispanics defer to O'Malley to elect another White Democrat

I'm sure they're pleased to have you speak on their behalf.

[Brittain33]

The other interesting thing from JohnnyLongtorso's link is that MD-7 in 1990 was 70+% Black, which would obviously not happen with the kind of "unpacking" in vogue today.

A good question would be what the breakdown was in 1982.

[Brittain33]

Does anyone know how the lawsuit is going to overturn the maps? I heard Republicans had a good shot of getting them thrown out.

On what basis?

[Brittain33]

Does anyone know how the lawsuit is going to overturn the maps? I heard Republicans had a good shot of getting them thrown out.

On what basis?

Presumably Ohio style referendum business.

He asked about a lawsuit...