US House Redistricting: Maryland

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If he's so unlikable, and I believe he is, they'll put his hometown north of Baltimore into Bartlett's or Ruppersberger's district to strand him while leaving MD-1 a strongly Republican district. I don't think they're going to go the lengths needed for a 7-1 map.

Does that really matter, though? Harris can still run in the 1st.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A 7-1 map is easy; an 8-0 map would definitely be pushing things. It's not helped that the Reps live in awkward parts of their districts (Ruppersberger and Sarbanes live a few miles from each other north of Baltimore, while Hoyer lives out in St. Mary's County and Donna Edwards is in Fort Washington in southern PG County).

State



Baltimore/Washington area



MD-01 (blue, open) - Harris gets drawn out of the district; it's now the Eastern Shore + a tentacle that reaches up from Annapolis to Howard County. Harris could run here, but I doubt he'd win. Frank Kratovil would make a comeback; the majority of the population is on the Eastern Shore, so he shouldn't have any trouble with a primary from a more liberal candidate on the Western Shore. Old district: 58-40 McCain, new district: 54-44 Obama.
MD-02 (green, Dutch Ruppersberger - D and Andy Harris - R) - Bizarrely, both of these guys live in the same town. Obviously the Rupster would be the favorite if Harris were foolish enough to run here. It's actually pretty similar to the old district. Old district: 60-38 Obama, new district: 61-37 Obama.
MD-03 (purple, John Sarbanes - D) - This one's a bit different, though. No more Baltimore, instead stretches from inner Baltimore County down to Montgomery. Old district: 59-39 Obama, new district: 62-36 Obama.
MD-04 (red, Donna Edwards - D) - Pretty similar to the old one. More compact, actually. 56% black. Old district: 85-14 Obama, new district: 88-11 Obama.
MD-05 (yellow, Steny Hoyer - D) - Also pretty similar to the old one. Old district: 65-33 Obama, new district: 66-33 Obama.
MD-06 (teal, open) - Again, cut Bartlett out of the district, as he lives in Frederick. Removed Frederick, added BaltCo suburbs. Could create an amusing fight between Bartlett and Harris. Old district: 58-40 McCain, new district: 63-35 McCain.
MD-07 (grey, Elijah Cummings) - Stretches down into Anne Arundel to soak up some Republican voters. 51% black. Old district: 79-20 Obama, new district: 70-29 Obama.
MD-08 (light purple, Chris Van Hollen - D and Roscoe Bartlett - R) - Barlett would obviously just run in MD-06 (he's too old and crotchety to actually move). Sucks up Frederick from MD-08 and loses parts of Montgomery and PG Counties. Old district: 74-25 Obama, new district: 67-32 Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It may have been true in the past that there were a lot of moderate swing voters in Maryland, but it's looking increasingly likely that they're becoming solid Democratic voters. Montgomery County is pretty much a guaranteed 2-1 Democratic vote now, Charles and Howard have moved from swing counties to pretty solidly Democratic counties, and even Frederick is heading towards swing county status.

Hoyer and Van Hollen don't need districts any more Democratic than about 65% Obama (which Hoyer has, but Van Hollen's is still packed in from when they dislodged Connie Morella). Hoyer had a reasonably competent opponent this time around and still finished at 64%. As for Cummings, well, he can be petulant all he wants, if he prefers to remain in the minority.

It's John Sarbanes in MD-03, by the way. Cardin's in the Senate now, and Sarbanes is definitely not Jewish.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It actually took very little tinkering to up MD-07's black percentage. I just put part of Baltimore County adjacent to western Baltimore from MD-03 to MD-07, then cut out a bit of northwestern BaltCo from MD-03 to MD-02, and finally ran MD-03 further into Anne Arundel and cut out a small white-majority slice of southwestern Baltimore.



MD-07 is up to 56% black; MD-02 is now 59-39 Obama and MD-03 61-37 Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

54-44, I didn't touch it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Redid my map with the 2010 numbers:

State:



Zoom:



MD-01 - 55.0% Obama
MD-02 - 59.6% Obama
MD-03 - 61.3% Obama
MD-04 - 86.1% Obama, 55.6% black VAP
MD-05 - 68.4% Obama
MD-06 - 63.6% McCain
MD-07 - 78.4% Obama, 54.3% black VAP
MD-08 - 67.0% Obama

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Try putting Cecil County in MD-06, Hagerstown in MD-08 and more of MontCo in MD-01. You can get MD-01 up to 59% Obama or so while keeping MD-08 in the 65% Obama range.

It's possible, but I highly doubt the legislature is going to split up the Eastern Shore just to push MD-01 a couple more points to the Democrats.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

As long as it's just Cecil, it might do.

Then again, it's not clear whether it's actually in their best interests to do it. You want that district to nominate a moderateish Eastern Shore Democrat who can breeze through the general, not some Liberal from Howard County against whom the Eastern Shore Republican outperforms generic R.

Yeah, that's the other reason for keeping the Eastern Shore together.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, here you go, Cecil County split up (the Elkton area went about 50/50 for Obama, so I left it in MD-01):




MD-01 - 59.9% Obama
MD-05 - 65.8% Obama
MD-06 - 64.8% McCain
MD-08 - 65.6% Obama

The other four districts were untouched.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a map that attempts to maintain the Democratic incumbents' current seats as much as possible:



Some concessions had to be made, such as moving MD-07's non-black portions from Howard County to Anne Arundel, and shifting the PG County portion of MD-05 into MD-01 to get rid of Harris.

MD-01 - 53-46 Obama
MD-02 - 58-40 Obama
MD-03 - 60-39 Obama
MD-04 - 88-12 Obama, 57% black VAP
MD-05 - 65-34 Obama
MD-06 - 63-35 McCain
MD-07 - 74-25 Obama, 51% black VAP
MD-08 - 68-31 Obama

Obviously there's no need for the map to be this ugly to protect the incumbents in a general election, given how Maryland has shifted further to the Democrats over the past decade, but they'll still be concerned about primary challengers.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That makes sense, actually. What they describe (western Maryland to Rockville) could be drawn as a 57-42 Obama district, which for Maryland is pretty much safe Dem.

I disagree that Kratovil was a fluke, though -- he still did much better on the Eastern Shore than he did in the Baltimore suburbs in 2010.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It doesn't matter what you put in with the Eastern Shore, it's a completely different world from the rest of the state.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/for-prince-georges-redistricting-prompts-questions-of-identity/2011/07/26/gIQA1pRSbI_blog.html

Black, white, Democrat and Republican, residents of Prince George’s County on Monday delivered a single unifying message to the redistricting commission of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D): Keep a proud county whole.

Don’t slice and dice Prince George’s reliably Democratic population to help elect congressmen from less blue parts of the state, residents said. And to reelect incumbents to Annapolis, don’t carve up natural communities and neighborhoods, limiting residents’ ability to have a representative who fully understands their needs.





That should put an obstacle in front of the Hoyer plan.

I realize you're only programmed for blind partisan hackery, but do you really think that this is going to be an obstacle to the Democrats? Can you point to a single example of one-party control over redistricting being stymied by public outcry? Do you really think the Maryland Democratic Party, who passed one of the most gerrymandered maps in the country last time, is going to think twice this time because some people in one of the most reliably-Democratic counties demanded to be kept together?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why fight over getting rid of Bartlett or Harris when you can do both? A lot of thin connections here, but the current map has those as well.



MD-01 - 49.6 McCain, 48.7 Obama. Good fit for Kratovil.
MD-02 - 57.2 Obama, 40.8 McCain.
MD-03 - 58.8 Obama, 39.0 McCain.
MD-04 - 80.8 Obama, 18.3 McCain, 54.2% black VAP.
MD-05 - 65.3 Obama, 33.5 McCain.
MD-06 - 54.8 Obama, 43.5 McCain. Maybe not safe, but Republicans are so weak in Montgomery County that it would be pretty close to safe.
MD-07 - 65.5 Obama, 32.8 McCain, 50.8% black VAP. The trick is to put the uber-Republican northern suburbs of Baltimore here, I think.
MD-08 - 63.1 Obama, 35.3 McCain.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Two maps floating around, one targeting Bartlett, the other targeting both Bartlett and Harris.

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

O'Malley's plan passed the State Senate 33-13. One Democrat (Anthony Muse) voted against it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Passed the House 91-46.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

MD-02 doesn't really have much territory that went "hard against Obama". Parts of southeastern Baltimore County and the bit that snakes up north to Ruppersburger's home, I guess, but Ruppersberger is a popular guy in BaltCo, being a former County Executive, so he should have little trouble there. Plus they redrew the district to drop some parts of Anne Arundel and snake down into Fort Meade and eastern Howard County, which should raise the Dem performance a bit.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looking back on the discussion made me try a nice, clean, compact map that's also solidly 6-2 Dem:



MD-01 (blue) - 57.2 McCain
MD-02 (green) - 57.2 Obama
MD-03 (purple) - 59.4 Obama
MD-04 (red) - 88.9 Obama, 60.9% black VAP
MD-05 (yellow) - 58.9 Obama
MD-06 (teal) - 55.3 McCain
MD-07 (grey) - 81.2 Obama, 53.7% black VAP
MD-08 (light purple) - 72.4 Obama

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Historical Maryland districts are available here.

Here's MD-03 from the 90s:

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I believe it was drawn by William Donald Schaefer, who used the map to screw over his political enemies (regardless of party) and give out favors to friends.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DKE has the Obama/McCain numbers on the new districts:

MD-01 - 59.6 McCain, 38.4 Obama
MD-02 - 60.6 Obama, 37.5 McCain
MD-03 - 60.1 Obama, 38.0 McCain
MD-04 - 77.3 Obama, 21.8 McCain
MD-05 - 65.1 Obama, 33.6 McCain
MD-06 - 56.3 Obama, 42.0 McCain
MD-07 - 76.2 Obama, 22.4 McCain
MD-08 - 62.8 Obama, 35.6 McCain

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Lawsuit tossed.