US House Redistricting: Maryland

[Sbane]

Here is my 7-1 gerrymander for MD. The 1st is 54-44 Mccain, as opposed to 58-40 in it's current shape. So this could possibly be a 8-0 map. I also drew 2 AA districts.

[Sbane]

How black is the green district in this map?  Even if the Dems could do this, I doubt that they will.

The Green district is 51% Black and the Yellow district is also 51% black. The rest of the districts are all about the same demographically(except the Montgomery County districts) and voted about the same for Obama. About 62-37 for all of them except 60-38 for the Purple district. The Green district is 70% Obama and the Yellow district is 74% Obama. And the 1st is 54-44 Mccain but that is less Republican than the current district.

This is the "greedy" map though. Democrats can make one very safe GOP district and shore up the rest of the 7 districts.

[Sbane]

How black is the green district in this map?  Even if the Dems could do this, I doubt that they will.

The Green district is 51% Black and the Yellow district is also 51% black. The rest of the districts are all about the same demographically(except the Montgomery County districts) and voted about the same for Obama. About 62-37 for all of them except 60-38 for the Purple district. The Green district is 70% Obama and the Yellow district is 74% Obama. And the 1st is 54-44 Mccain but that is less Republican than the current district.

This is the "greedy" map though. Democrats can make one very safe GOP district and shore up the rest of the 7 districts.

51% black districts will not be acceptable to the black representatives, I don't think.

Why not? They are pretty safe districts. Maybe whoever ends up in the Green district might not like it so much, but they should be fine.

[Sbane]

I love how you pretend as if the 4th or the 7th aren't gerrymandered.

A fair map would probably result in a 5-2-1 map.

[Sbane]

Does anyone feel like they need a shower?

This whole redistricting process is unclean and f'ed up. Not sure whether MD and TN are where the deals need to be made. What sort of map will be coming out of Ohio? Pennsylvania? Maybe the Dems feel they need to retaliate for that? Let's just have a constitutional convention or something, take redistricting out of the hands of the pigs, and be done with it.

Wait, has the Ohio map been released? Did they create a Columbus district? If not, then the MD dems should go for the juggular and severe it with one bite. 8-0 map is in order, I think.

[Sbane]

Ok just saw the Ohio map, pretty disgusting as expected but still has 4 dem districts it seems. So 7-1 in MD I guess.

Oh btw, I hope they draw a dummymander in TN, I really do. And please try to eliminate Medicare, pretty please? Then the fun can begin.

[Sbane]

Does anyone feel like they need a shower?

This whole redistricting process is unclean and f'ed up. Not sure whether MD and TN are where the deals need to be made. What sort of map will be coming out of Ohio? Pennsylvania? Maybe the Dems feel they need to retaliate for that? Let's just have a constitutional convention or something, take redistricting out of the hands of the pigs, and be done with it.

Wait, has the Ohio map been released? Did they create a Columbus district? If not, then the MD dems should go for the juggular and severe it with one bite. 8-0 map is in order, I think.

The GOP ceded Columbus. Their map is a still massive cf however. All the Pubbies here agree on that one.    Among other things, they chopped Toledo in half.  But there is just so much more. My map looks like a veritable non partisan plan in comparison. Check out the Ohio thread, and you shall see.

Yeah, I realize the map is just awful, on many different levels. If you make it such a mess, at least eliminate 2 Dems.

As for TN, your map is pretty good, and something like that should be expected thus MD going for the 7-1 map.

[Sbane]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

I'd estimate that at 55-56% Obama... more than enough to flip it.

Not surprising, another disgusting Maryland gerrymander.

Absolutely no reason to rip up Carroll County.

I drew a much nicer looking 7-1 map. Believe it's in this thread. I think there is something wrong with Maryland Democrats when it comes to redistricting. They just can't help going crazy. And it's more like a 6-1-1 map anyways. Hilarious.

[Sbane]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

I'd estimate that at 55-56% Obama... more than enough to flip it.

Not surprising, another disgusting Maryland gerrymander.

Absolutely no reason to rip up Carroll County.

I drew a much nicer looking 7-1 map. Believe it's in this thread. I think there is something wrong with Maryland Democrats when it comes to redistricting. They just can't help going crazy. And it's more like a 6-1-1 map anyways. Hilarious.

You agree that the Western MD CD that the Dems tried to "steal" which motivated me to lash out in Tennessee is only 55%-56% Obama?  If so that is ludicrous. That is very close to a toss-up CD for 2012, particularly if the number is 55%.  The Dem incumbents must have had a rather "selfish" little agenda, and want CD's where they can just dial it in. I of course as the Dem ring master would have told them to just go F themselves.   I think when I did this exercise way back when, or Johnny did it, a 59% Obama CD could have been somewhat "reasonably" drawn, but maybe my recollection fails me.

I have no clue about the partisan breakdown. I just took Timothy at his word. And yeah, either the Dems are selfish, or they are dumb as rocks and can't draw a decent map, or both. Probably both.

[Sbane]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Actually us Maryland Republican can compete just fine when the districts aren't grotesquely gerrymandered. 

Mostly not gerrymandered (though the distribution of seats in separate districts or multi-member ones obviously benefits the Democrats and that one seat on the Eastern Shore) and plenty of "naturally" Republican districts held by Democrats or with a split delegation.

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Presumably Bartlett will retire don't you think?

Probably.

Strip out Baltimore City, Montgomery, Prince George's and Charles counties.  They are heavily Democrat and not competitive whatsoever.  Aside from that we're competitive.  The Allegany, Washington, Cecil, Baltimore, St Mary's county Democrats have been in there forever.  They get in on their tenure and their name.   Dems got really lucky in 2010, they won a lot of close races.

Those four counties/cities make up 45% of the population of MD. And a county like Howard county is pretty much Dem as well, and that makes a majority. Nicely sums up the Republicans problem in the state.

[Sbane]

Duh.  Hence why Md is a Democrat state.

And by the way, Howard County only became solid Democrat when it jumped up to being the 3rd richest county in America.  12-15 years ago it was middle of the road.  Now full of rich liberal government workers, just like Charles county

Government workers probably do have something to do with it, but I think there's a fair amount of white collar jobs around too. Can't say a metro area with 6 million odd people is all government workers. These are the professional class that moved left on social issues. Also see Montgomery County, PA.