US House Redistricting: Maryland

[Skill and Chance]

Here is my 7-1 gerrymander for MD. The 1st is 54-44 Mccain, as opposed to 58-40 in it's current shape. So this could possibly be a 8-0 map. I also drew 2 AA districts.

It actually looks nicer than the current map lol

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder if they are more likely to go after Bartlett or Harris?  It might be better for them to just dump all of the GOP suburbs of Baltimore into Harris's district and drop half of Montgomery County on Bartlett, who will likely retire soon anyway.

[Skill and Chance]

They will likely add parts of Annapolis into Harris' district.  This will net roughly an extra 30,000 Democrats into the district and they will also likely put more conservative parts of the district into Congressman Ruppersberger's district.  I spoke to many delegates and many state Senators who plan to pursue this idea.

So they must want Kratovil back in 2012.  I assume then that they are planning to continue conceding the Barlett district?

[Skill and Chance]

It may be that the state Dem party has made promises WRT Kratovil, but if all they are trying to do is make a 7th Dem district, then I still say it would be far better to dilute Van Hollen's 8th a bit in Montgomery county by having the 6th dive all the way down toward the border with DC and having the 8th shift NW to take in parts of Frederick and southern Washington counties.  You could make the 6th D+7 or so while still keeping the 8th at about D+13 or D+14, so I don't think Van Hollen would freak out.  Finally, wrap the 1st district around farther to the NW into Carroll, drop the Bay Bridge extension to maintain population and make it the district you forfeit to the GOP. 

[Skill and Chance]

You can dilute Van Hollen's seat without causing too much trouble. It's now a bit over-packed with Democrats because it was designed to oust liberal Republican Connie Morella. The old seat was like a D+10, and Van Hollen would have no problem in such a seat now.

An 8-0 map seems a bit too risky to me, even though the MD Dems would probably love to retaliate for the PA and NC GOP gerrymandering that is coming up.  There's just too big a chance of 3 or 4 of them going down in a GOP wave that hits MD.  You would put the white Dems in the Baltimore area under a lot of stress.  I am simply arguing that they would do better to get a 7th D seat from western MD than from the Eastern Shore.

[Skill and Chance]

You can dilute Van Hollen's seat without causing too much trouble. It's now a bit over-packed with Democrats because it was designed to oust liberal Republican Connie Morella. The old seat was like a D+10, and Van Hollen would have no problem in such a seat now.

An 8-0 map seems a bit too risky to me, even though the MD Dems would probably love to retaliate for the PA and NC GOP gerrymandering that is coming up.  There's just too big a chance of 3 or 4 of them going down in a GOP wave that hits MD.  You would put the white Dems in the Baltimore area under a lot of stress.  I am simply arguing that they would do better to get a 7th D seat from western MD than from the Eastern Shore.

Why?  The Eastern Shore is far less Republican than the Panhandle, and putting Carrol County into a Democratic-district would be a waste of Liberal Votes.  You can Draw a 1st District that takes the Eastern Shore (up to Cecil County), Annapolis, and some White parts of Baltimore and wind up with a district that's about 55% Obama and shouldn't be hard for an Eastern-Shore Democrat to hold.  Every other District is at least 64% Democrat aside from the 6th, which takes the Panhandle (minus Hagerstown and Frederick), Carrol County, the Northern part of Baltimore county, Hartford, and Cecil, and is 63% McCain.

The 7th takes most of Baltimore, along with some Northern and Eastern Suburbs, and is 58% Black, the 4th takes inner PGC, along with Charles, Calvert, and most of St. Mary's (Hoyer lives in the northern part of St. Mary's) and is 57% Black.

Basically because Montgomery County has many more democratic voters than anything up against the Bay except for Baltimore City which is anchored in the African-American majority district.  I suppose you could pull the 1st into PG and/or Montgomery, but why not just drop the 6th down to the border with DC?  Van Hollen's district is D+24.  He can take a hit from NW MD more easily than any of the white Baltimore Dems can take a hit from more conservative suburbs.  This has been noted before in other discussions of redistricting. 

[Skill and Chance]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

Have you seen NC and IL?  Retaliation is probably the name of the game for the rest of this cycle.  MD Dems will go 5-3 the day the NC GOP goes 7-6.  The GOP holds like 80% of the cards this cycle anyway, so don't sweat one state too much.  Look at it this way. The Dems have IL: +3-5, CA: +2-4, FL: +1 net, WA:+1, NV: +1, MD: +1, and maybe WV: +1.  The GOP has: NC:+3-4, TX: +2-3,  GA: +2, UT: +2, SC: +1, IN: +1, AZ: +1, and maybe TN +1.  On top of that, the GOP is set for a 9-5 split in MI, 12-4 in OH, 12-6 in PA, 8-3 in VA, at least 18 out of 27 in FL, and 4-3 in CO, which are all states that Obama won by a substantial margin.     

[Skill and Chance]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

Have you seen NC and IL?  Retaliation is probably the name of the game for the rest of this cycle.  MD Dems will go 5-3 the day the NC GOP goes 7-6.  The GOP holds like 80% of the cards this cycle anyway, so don't sweat one state too much.  Look at it this way. The Dems have IL: +3-5, CA: +2-4, FL: +1 net, WA:+1, NV: +1, MD: +1, and maybe WV: +1.  The GOP has: NC:+3-4, TX: +2-3,  GA: +2, UT: +2, SC: +1, IN: +1, AZ: +1, and maybe TN +1.  On top of that, the GOP is set for a 9-5 split in MI, 12-4 in OH, 12-6 in PA, 8-3 in VA, at least 18 out of 27 in FL, and 4-3 in CO, which are all states that Obama won by a substantial margin.     

I don't like any of it.   Of course Maryland is of highest interest to me as I know the state inside and out.  I'd be happy with a 24-12 Texas map in exchange for a 4-4 Maryland map or a 10-8 Illinois map

I could settle for a 5-3 MD, a 6-3 MA, a 3-2 CT, a 17-10 NY and a 10-8 IL for at least a 1 person  majority of the delegation in any state where Obama got more than 53% of the vote + a 5-6 VA and more than 11 seats in FL.  That statement demonstrates how badly the current system is tilted toward one party.

[Skill and Chance]

Am I the only one who thinks MD-02 (Ruppersberger) could be vulnerable by the end of the decade?  It has a lot of areas around Baltimore that are historically Dem but trended hard against Obama.

Thanks,

Richard

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone know how the lawsuit is going to overturn the maps? I heard Republicans had a good shot of getting them thrown out.

On what basis?

Didn't the Democrats pass the maps with 2/3rds?  That would be sufficient to avoid a referendum in Ohio.  I don't know if Maryland's law is the same.  If it is, they have 2/3rds and can just pass the maps again with some minor changes to appease the nth legislator (who would be a Democrat).
Presumably Ohio style referendum business.


The referendum petition against an Act or part of an Act passed by the General Assembly, shall be sufficient if signed by three percent of the qualified voters of the State of Maryland, calculated upon the whole number of votes cast for Governor at the last preceding Gubernatorial election, of whom not more than half are residents of Baltimore City, or of any one County. However, any Public Local Law for any one County or the City of Baltimore, shall be referred by the Secretary of State only to the people of the County or City of Baltimore, upon a referendum petition of ten percent of the qualified voters of the County or City of Baltimore, as the case may be, calculated upon the whole number of votes cast respectively for Governor at the last preceding Gubernatorial election.

[Skill and Chance]

BTW, what made MD-2 and MD-3 (marginally) more Democratic?

For MD-03, it was really liberal parts of Montgomery County.  For MD-02, the new MD-01 soaked up more McCain voters to the north and east.

They really should have done 60.8% Obama in MD-08 and 58.3% Obama in MD-06, though, given how ugly they made things already!

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone know how the lawsuit is going to overturn the maps? I heard Republicans had a good shot of getting them thrown out.

On what basis?

Blatant racial gerrymandering so Democrats could pick up Bartlett's district. Census numbers entitled another minority majority district in the state.

Maryland's congressional map absolutely should be thrown out, but not because of any racial gerrymandering bull crap.

It should be tossed because it is so egregiously gerrymandered.  Worst map of the whole cycle

Umm, are you forgetting NC-04 and NC-12?  As far as I can tell, MD doesn't use any touch-point contiguity.  Several of the NC districts do.  NC and OH balance out MD and IL in terms of ugliness (in IL, you could even argue from the Obama numbers that a fair map should have 11-12 Democrats).  Both parties do it when they can.   

[Skill and Chance]

Does anyone know how the lawsuit is going to overturn the maps? I heard Republicans had a good shot of getting them thrown out.

On what basis?

And I bet the Dem controlled League of Women Voters is not complaining about the MD map either. They only like to bitch about Pubbie gerrymanders.

Blatant racial gerrymandering so Democrats could pick up Bartlett's district. Census numbers entitled another minority majority district in the state.

Maryland's congressional map absolutely should be thrown out, but not because of any racial gerrymandering bull crap.

It should be tossed because it is so egregiously gerrymandered.  Worst map of the whole cycle

I can't speak for the League of Women Voters, but a bunch of traditionally Democratic civil rights organizations are parties to the suit to force a 2nd Hispanic opportunity district in Illinois.  That's a pretty strong response to the hypocrisy arguments.