US House Redistricting: Maryland

[krazen1211]

Does Maryland allow for mid-decade redistricting?



Moving this over from the Philadelphia thread.

The fact that Donna Edwards lives where she does unfortunately makes this uglier than it needs to otherwise be. I also don't know specifically where the 3 Baltimore congressmen live, so precincts might have to be shifted there.

There might be a better way to do it without touch point continuity but I found that routing Edwards through Montco used up too many residents.




Carroll and upper Baltco residents get Donna Edwards as a rep.


As has been said, you do need to retrogress the AA districts down to 51% to do this, and you have to run Donna Edwards up the map to Carroll County somehow.

MD-1: 52% Obama
MD-2: 59% Obama
MD-3: 59% Obama
MD-4: 73% Obama
MD-5: 63% Obama
MD-6: 56% Obama
MD-7: 71% Obama
MD-8: 63% Obama


If and when Hoyer retires, you can probably split MD-1 and MD-5 to beef up MD-1.

[krazen1211]

The 51% rule for minorities under the VRA is VAP, not population, so unless the Dems want to litigate whether a black does not need 51% VAP to get elected in his or her CD, push the 51% black percentage population number up to say about 53% (so it is probably indeed 51 VAP black), and try again. Thanks.

By the way, I am now quite confident the Dems won't mess with the two GOP CD's in MD.  Does anyone really think otherwise?  In any event, a 55% Obama CD in MD is a marginal CD, and when the final numbers come in, it will be more like a 54% Obama CD, and even more marginal.  It just ain't happening folks. Among other things, the MD black incumbents won't stand for it - at all.

I guess it depends on whether Hoyer and Van Hollen, who both held powerful positions in the majority, can outweigh the 2 black reps. But given how brutal being in the minority in the House is, I can't imagine the CBC is going to be THAT selfish without reason.


It really doesn't change much. You can get the grey district up to 53% by better chopping up Baltimore precincts (without weakening CD-2 at all).


The red district requires uglier lines. You effectively have to dig the yellow district into College Park thus giving the yellow district more white liberals, then you can extend the red district further south picking up more black liberals.




You end up knocking 1% off MD-1, MD-6, and MD-8.

MD-1: 51% Obama
MD-2: 59% Obama
MD-3: 59% Obama
MD-4: 76% Obama, 53% black
MD-5: 62% Obama
MD-6: 56% Obama
MD-7: 70% Obama, 53% black
MD-8: 62% Obama

[krazen1211]

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/2011/01/what_about_redistricting.html

Maryland did not lose any congressional seats, but shifting population means some districts will change shape. Some points lawmakers may consider: The Baltimore area, which has three representatives, has experienced almost no population growth in recent years. Other areas, including greater Frederick and the Washington Beltway communities, are growing.

And the Democrat-dominated state government could take aim at one of the two Republican-held districts, roughly the Eastern Shore and Western Maryland.

Miller singled out the Rep. John Sarbanes’ District 3 as a potential area for restructuring. The Democrat’s territory includes pieces of Baltimore City, Baltimore County and Anne Arundel County.
“What we’ll probably do is attempt to make the districts more compact,” he said.




Leads me to believe Johnny nailed it. They'll pack in MD-6.

[krazen1211]

If you're going to go 7-1:

I always thought the nicer looking map packed in MD-1 by adding Harford and North Baltimore Counties while running MD-6 deep into Montco and making that your new district.


Turning MD-1 into a Dem district is never clean and I think putting Prince George's in with the Eastern Shore is pretty damn incoherent. Montco and the Western Panhandle are at least on the same side of the state.

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Pretty cool map here: MD with 3 black and 4 total Minority districts.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/365/mmd-md-by-shamlet

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http://articles.centermaryland.org/?p=2898

Hoyer has urged his colleagues to facilitate a comeback for Kratovil, who held the 1st District seat before being ousted by Harris in 2010 – and who, by the way, is an old family friend of Hoyer’s. The minority whip argued that Kratovil was a talented member who took some tough votes for the Democrats – including supporting the cap-and-trade bill – and deserved a chance to represent a friendlier district.

But Edwards made the case, according to sources, that Kratovil’s 2008 win was a fluke – and that even bringing the 1st District across the Bay Bridge into Prince George’s County or Baltimore City might not provide enough Democrats for Kratovil to win. She also argued that that adding African-American voters into an Eastern Shore district was the wrong thing to do


Basic intraparty bickering.

[krazen1211]

Regional concerns matter, especially for those 50k blacks stuck in the Eastern Shore district if you draw it into PG.

Instead they should just run CD-1 over to Carroll County and grab all the 60% McCain precincts.

[krazen1211]

Regional concerns matter, especially for those 50k blacks stuck in the Eastern Shore district if you draw it into PG.

Instead they should just run CD-1 over to Carroll County and grab all the 60% McCain precincts.

Just like how in Texas, Republicans should keep the city of Austin together, right?

There's a sizable difference between screwing over your own voters and screwing over the other side's voters. One matters. One doesn't.

[krazen1211]

You think that Austin's Democratic voters arent getting screwed by being put into a bunch of Republican districts?

Try rereading what I wrote.

In anycase, here's the reasonable 7-1 and 8-0 maps; of course it ignores a couple residences. But I think Hoyer has some apartment in college park.

[krazen1211]

What be the racial percentages on that 8-0 map?

CD-1: 54% Obama
CD-2: 58% Obama
CD-3: 55% Obama
CD-4: 75% Obama, 55% black
CD-5: 60% Obama
CD-6: 59% Obama
CD-7: 68% Obama, 51% black
CD-8: 65% Obama

In order to get Towson back into CD-3 I think you need to split Baltimore again. But at least the map is not horrid.

[krazen1211]

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

On principle, I agree. However, my map was intended to be an intellectual excercise on what a Democratic gerrymander would look like with a requirement of three black-majority districts. It was in no way intended to be a serious proposal, a prediction of what will be done, or an argument as to what should be done.

The useless organization known as the Maryland GOP has proposed a map that appears to have 3 black districts.

http://mdgop.org/mdgop-releases-new-congressional-lines/

[krazen1211]

Not bad, but that 2nd district seems unnecessarily erose. Why not take northern Baltimore County instead of going into Howard?

Good question. That would help the GOP too.

The central district on that map clocks in at about 40% black and max 25% of the other races.

[krazen1211]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/for-prince-georges-redistricting-prompts-questions-of-identity/2011/07/26/gIQA1pRSbI_blog.html

Black, white, Democrat and Republican, residents of Prince George’s County on Monday delivered a single unifying message to the redistricting commission of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D): Keep a proud county whole.

Don’t slice and dice Prince George’s reliably Democratic population to help elect congressmen from less blue parts of the state, residents said. And to reelect incumbents to Annapolis, don’t carve up natural communities and neighborhoods, limiting residents’ ability to have a representative who fully understands their needs.





That should put an obstacle in front of the Hoyer plan.

[krazen1211]

I realize you're only programmed for blind partisan hackery, but do you really think that this is going to be an obstacle to the Democrats? Can you point to a single example of one-party control over redistricting being stymied by public outcry? Do you really think the Maryland Democratic Party, who passed one of the most gerrymandered maps in the country last time, is going to think twice this time because some people in one of the most reliably-Democratic counties demanded to be kept together?

Hi, I am Fayetteville to the Fourth (Arkansas version), and I got stymied by public outcry.

And no, I do not consider the 1st to PG district to be likely. I said that months ago.

[krazen1211]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/for-prince-georges-redistricting-prompts-questions-of-identity/2011/07/26/gIQA1pRSbI_blog.html

Black, white, Democrat and Republican, residents of Prince George’s County on Monday delivered a single unifying message to the redistricting commission of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D): Keep a proud county whole.

Don’t slice and dice Prince George’s reliably Democratic population to help elect congressmen from less blue parts of the state, residents said. And to reelect incumbents to Annapolis, don’t carve up natural communities and neighborhoods, limiting residents’ ability to have a representative who fully understands their needs.





That should put an obstacle in front of the Hoyer plan.

I realize you're only programmed for blind partisan hackery, but do you really think that this is going to be an obstacle to the Democrats? Can you point to a single example of one-party control over redistricting being stymied by public outcry? Do you really think the Maryland Democratic Party, who passed one of the most gerrymandered maps in the country last time, is going to think twice this time because some people in one of the most reliably-Democratic counties demanded to be kept together?

The GOP in Washington state in 1980.

And of course West Virginia in 2010.

Another article hints at a 7-1 map, to the dismay of the blind partisan hacks.


http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-western-maryland-redistricting-20110806,0,865855,full.story

Democrats eyeing Western Maryland
In redistricting, they see a chance to challenge Republican Bartlett

[krazen1211]

Leaked map. Quite effective.

http://www.marylandjuice.com/2011/09/leaked-map-of-marylands-2012.html

1: 35
2: 55
3: 56
4: 80
5: 60
6: 57
7: 63
8: 64

Obama:
1: 40
2. 61
3. 62
4. 83
5. 63
6. 63
7. 70
8. 67

[krazen1211]

Option 2 will destroy Sarbanes for a DC politician.

[krazen1211]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

[krazen1211]

I drew it at about 56% Obama as well, 55% average Dem. Safe 9 years out of 10; just seems silly not to make it 10 out of 10.

[krazen1211]

Black legislators are angry.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/5/black-leaders-fear-maryland-redistricting-may-dilu/print/
http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/2011/10/montco-lawmakers-bristle-over-md-redistricting-plan

[krazen1211]

Black legislators are angry.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/5/black-leaders-fear-maryland-redistricting-may-dilu/print/
http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/2011/10/montco-lawmakers-bristle-over-md-redistricting-plan

And you know as well as anyone else that the legislature leaders do not care one iota and will tell them to f**k off.

Black and Hispanic legislators and Republicans form a majority.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/odd-couples-team-up-to-attack-md-redistricting-map/2011/10/07/gIQAldW1TL_story.html


Rep. Donna F. Edwards (D), meanwhile, has not commented publicly on the map. But multiple Maryland Democratic sources said she is unhappy that the plan takes away the portion of upper Montgomery County she represents, instead stretching her 4th District east from Prince George’s County into Anne Arundel County.

Adding a layer of potential intrigue, Bartlett and Edwards were seen huddling over maps of the state during House votes Wednesday evening.

[krazen1211]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-rep-donna-edwards-says-she-doesnt-support-current-redistricting-plan/2011/10/11/gIQAZnzPcL_story.html

 Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards said Tuesday she doesn’t support a redistricting plan in its current form because it doesn’t adequately represent minorities.



Yep. Dead and buried.

[krazen1211]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bal-new-districts-chart,0,852399.htmlpage

Data.

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SECTION 1. (a) The people reserve to themselves power known as The Referendum, by petition to have submitted to the registered voters of the State, to approve or reject at the polls, any Act, or part of any Act of the General Assembly, if approved by the Governor, or, if passed by the General Assembly over the veto of the Governor;



Hmm.

[krazen1211]

http://www.msa.md.gov/msa/mdmanual/43const/html/16art16.html

The referendum petition against an Act or part of an Act passed by the General Assembly, shall be sufficient if signed by three percent of the qualified voters of the State of Maryland, calculated upon the whole number of votes cast for Governor at the last preceding Gubernatorial election, of whom not more than half are residents of Baltimore City, or of any one County.

If an Act is passed less than 45 days prior to June 1, it may not become effective sooner than 31 days after its passage. To bring this Act to referendum, the first one-third of the required number of signatures to a petition shall be submitted within 30 days after its passage. If the first one-third of the required number of signatures is submitted to the Secretary of State within 30 days after its passage, the time for the Act to take effect and for filing the remainder of the signatures to complete the petition shall be extended for an additional 30 days.



55,000 or so signatures.