US House Redistricting: Maryland

[timothyinMD]

Okay, I did some un-gerrymandering, and actually came up with a rather easy 4R/4D map. 

Maryland may just be the most polarized state.  Take out Baltimore city and Pr. George's County and Ehrlich won the election by 16,000 votes.

In my 4-4 map we have:
Red      57-41 McCain
Purple  50-48 McCain
Green  55-42 McCain
Blue     53-45 McCain
 
Teal       71-27 Obama   13% black, 16% hisp, 15% asian
Gray      72-26 Obama   31.6% black, 11.5% hisp, 11.3% asian
Yellow    90-9 Obama    66.6% black
Orange  90-9 Obama    66.6% black

I didn't even try to make Yellow and Orange exact twins, but dumb luck

[timothyinMD]

Atrocious!

[timothyinMD]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

[timothyinMD]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

Have you seen NC and IL?  Retaliation is probably the name of the game for the rest of this cycle.  MD Dems will go 5-3 the day the NC GOP goes 7-6.  The GOP holds like 80% of the cards this cycle anyway, so don't sweat one state too much.  Look at it this way. The Dems have IL: +3-5, CA: +2-4, FL: +1 net, WA:+1, NV: +1, MD: +1, and maybe WV: +1.  The GOP has: NC:+3-4, TX: +2-3,  GA: +2, UT: +2, SC: +1, IN: +1, AZ: +1, and maybe TN +1.  On top of that, the GOP is set for a 9-5 split in MI, 12-4 in OH, 12-6 in PA, 8-3 in VA, at least 18 out of 27 in FL, and 4-3 in CO, which are all states that Obama won by a substantial margin.     

I don't like any of it.   Of course Maryland is of highest interest to me as I know the state inside and out.  I'd be happy with a 24-12 Texas map in exchange for a 4-4 Maryland map or a 10-8 Illinois map

[timothyinMD]

Not really.  It's not surprising that Republican have such a lopsided majority in some states.

The cold hard truth is that Democrats are highly concentrated in urban districts that vote 70-95% Democrat, and Republicans are concentrated in rural/suburban districts that vote 55-75% Republican.  That's just the way it is

[timothyinMD]

You probably have to split Howard County again if you do that. So, either way, one of Howard County and Baltimore County gets an extra split.

Anyway, it's definitely not three black districts. That MD-04 might be plurality black, but it's definitely nowhere near majority. My guess is around 33% white, 32% black, 25% Hispanic, 10% Asian/other

The hop from MD-01 across the Chesapeake is supremely bizarre, too.
[/quote]

The cross-bay hop is not bizarre.  The 1st district has crossed the bay for the last 30 some years.  If you add Harford Co to the 9 eastern shore counties, they are 27,642 people short of one district.


I don't care for the Md GOP's map either.  I've created 3 different scenarios that are better than that one

[timothyinMD]

This is a great map for Maryland.  

--Western Marylanders said they wanted a more compact district?  They got it

--P.G. County said they wanted their own district?  They got it

--Baltimore Co.. was split 5 ways, now 3.
--A.A. Co was split 4 ways, now 3.
--Baltimore city is unified into one district.  
--No cross-Chesapeake stretching
--Like communities in Harford and Baltimore Counties are united

--4 Solid Dem, 1 lean Dem, 1 toss up, 2 Solid Republican seats

1 38.7% Obama  59.2% McCain  
2 53.5% Obama  44.2% McCain
3 69.8% Obama
4 92.1% Obama
5 49.4% Obama  48.9% McCain
6 41.1% Obama  56.9% McCain
7 88.0% Obama
8 69.6% Obama

4th ~ 68% black, 7th ~ 65% black

No deviation above +48

[timothyinMD]

I continue to tinker with the lines in MD, cuz it's the state I know the best.

I was going for making minor changes to 4 - Edwards, 5 - Hoyer, and 8 - Van Hollen.

I tried to restore 1 - Harris, 2 - Ruppersberger, 3 - Sarbanes and 6 - Bartlett to something that resembles the 1991-2001 map.  (Included below)




1  McCain 56.7%
2  McCain 55.0%
3  Obama 62.8%
4  Obama 90.2%
5  Obama 67.8%
6  McCain 56.9%
7  Obama 86.8%
8  Obama 69.3%

1  79.8% white
2  76.8% white
3  55.8% white, 25.9% black
4  58.1% black, 20.6% hispanic, 13.8% white
5  45.1% white  39.7% black, 7.5% hispanic
6  83.9% white
7  63.6% black, 27.6% white
8  54.8% white  15.2% asian, 14.3% hispanic, 12.5% black

5 majority white, 2 majority black, 1 multi-race majority

Funny thing I noticed at the end.  Without trying I have a pair of districts that are +36 and -36 and a pair that are +33 and -33.  Go figure

[timothyinMD]

Maybe the Pubs should send a telegram to the MD Dems, that if they kill off a Pubbie in MD, Cooper in TN is finished. An semi-erose go for the kill map will be passed in TN. Just a thought. And I just drew one (not yet posted; my prior map was more "gentlemanly." I'm serious. I feel a bit bad. Cooper is a throughly decent man. I feel unclean. But the MD Dems are being a bit piggish. It's time to retaliate.

After the Ohio monstrosity, I'd accept nothing less than the following as a Maryland Democrat.

Why fight over getting rid of Bartlett or Harris when you can do both? A lot of thin connections here, but the current map has those as well.



MD-01 - 49.6 McCain, 48.7 Obama. Good fit for Kratovil.
MD-02 - 57.2 Obama, 40.8 McCain.
MD-03 - 58.8 Obama, 39.0 McCain.
MD-04 - 80.8 Obama, 18.3 McCain, 54.2% black VAP.
MD-05 - 65.3 Obama, 33.5 McCain.
MD-06 - 54.8 Obama, 43.5 McCain. Maybe not safe, but Republicans are so weak in Montgomery County that it would be pretty close to safe.
MD-07 - 65.5 Obama, 32.8 McCain, 50.8% black VAP. The trick is to put the uber-Republican northern suburbs of Baltimore here, I think.
MD-08 - 63.1 Obama, 35.3 McCain.

The difference is that we earned our 13-5 majority in Ohio at the ballot box, and their new map eliminates one Democrat and one Republican.  Sounds fair to me.

[timothyinMD]

This one wasn't disgusting: (hint hint)

Non-Partisan:



CD1 (Blue): -46; 78.0% White; 57.0% McCain
CD2 (Orange): +56; 64.7% White; 54.2% Obama
CD3 (Lime): -62; 55.8% Black; 79.4% Obama
CD4 (Red) +9; 61.3% Black; 88.8% Obama
CD5 (Yellow): +58; 59.9% White; 59.0% Obama
CD6 (Green): +21; 79.3% White; 53.0% McCain
CD7 (Black): -42; 55.1% White; 60.2% Obama
CD8 (Violet): -4; 49.9% White plurality; 73.1% Obama

Summary:

2 strong majority (55%+) Black districts
1 majority-minority district, white plurality
5 strong majority (55%+) White districts
4 safe democrat (60%+ Obama) districts
1 strong democrat (55%+ Obama) district
1 lean democrat (50%+ Obama) district
1 lean republican (50%+ McCain) district
1 strong republican (55%+ McCain) district

Max. deviation 68/100, average deviation 38.500/50.000, all districts truly contiguous, 4 counties split.

Northeastern A.A. County shouldn't be attached to Baltimore City

[timothyinMD]

This one wasn't disgusting: (hint hint)

Non-Partisan:



CD1 (Blue): -46; 78.0% White; 57.0% McCain
CD2 (Orange): +56; 64.7% White; 54.2% Obama
CD3 (Lime): -62; 55.8% Black; 79.4% Obama
CD4 (Red) +9; 61.3% Black; 88.8% Obama
CD5 (Yellow): +58; 59.9% White; 59.0% Obama
CD6 (Green): +21; 79.3% White; 53.0% McCain
CD7 (Black): -42; 55.1% White; 60.2% Obama
CD8 (Violet): -4; 49.9% White plurality; 73.1% Obama

Summary:

2 strong majority (55%+) Black districts
1 majority-minority district, white plurality
5 strong majority (55%+) White districts
4 safe democrat (60%+ Obama) districts
1 strong democrat (55%+ Obama) district
1 lean democrat (50%+ Obama) district
1 lean republican (50%+ McCain) district
1 strong republican (55%+ McCain) district

Max. deviation 68/100, average deviation 38.500/50.000, all districts truly contiguous, 4 counties split.

Northeastern A.A. County shouldn't be attached to Baltimore City

I fiddled around with a lot of alternatives for CD-2/CD-3, and this was the only way I could get good population equality and maintain Baltimore in one CD with a land link to the necessary extra people :/

I also realised that I was using total people, not VAP, for the ethnic groups; the two black districts remain black but the majority-minority district slips into a white majority.

This is the true "non-partisan" map.  One county split. No strangely shaped districts

[timothyinMD]

Yup, by one county split, I meant that Anne Arundel county is the only one with less than the pop of a one district to be split

[timothyinMD]

Both maps are disgusting.  Dems continue to have no respect for Md-- like the Ohio Reps

[timothyinMD]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

I'd estimate that at 55-56% Obama... more than enough to flip it.

Not surprising, another disgusting Maryland gerrymander.

Absolutely no reason to rip up Carroll County.

[timothyinMD]

Damn I'm good.  I guessed earlier when I said it was 56% Obama and I was right.  It's about 56-42.   This is not a 6-1-1 map.  This is a 7-1 map.  50% of the districts population is Montgomery county and that portion voted 75% Obama.  They tailor made this seat for Rob Garagiola.

Speaker Busch has some serious audacity 

[timothyinMD]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Actually us Maryland Republican can compete just fine when the districts aren't grotesquely gerrymandered. 

[timothyinMD]

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Actually us Maryland Republican can compete just fine when the districts aren't grotesquely gerrymandered. 

Mostly not gerrymandered (though the distribution of seats in separate districts or multi-member ones obviously benefits the Democrats and that one seat on the Eastern Shore) and plenty of "naturally" Republican districts held by Democrats or with a split delegation.

Considering how pathetic the GOP is at winning even McCain districts on the local level in Maryland, I don't see them taking a 56% Obama seat. Bartlett is an older than dirt dude no one cares about, he's not surviving in that. A panhandle Republican isn't going to get the numbers in Montco needed to take that. And Montco Republicans might as well be extinct.

Presumably Bartlett will retire don't you think?

Probably.

Strip out Baltimore City, Montgomery, Prince George's and Charles counties.  They are heavily Democrat and not competitive whatsoever.  Aside from that we're competitive.  The Allegany, Washington, Cecil, Baltimore, St Mary's county Democrats have been in there forever.  They get in on their tenure and their name.   Dems got really lucky in 2010, they won a lot of close races.

[timothyinMD]

Duh.  Hence why Md is a Democrat state.

And by the way, Howard County only became solid Democrat when it jumped up to being the 3rd richest county in America.  12-15 years ago it was middle of the road.  Now full of rich liberal government workers, just like Charles county

[timothyinMD]

Dude is also so old now his age rounds to 90.

In 2010 he won only 62% against a total nobody in a district that McCain got almost 58% in. In 2008 he actually got less votes than McCain but a slightly higher percentage due to undervotes, he no doubt underperformed Ehlrich in 2010 as well. So to think he could hang on he'd have to be quite senile...which he very well might be.

The more extreme than the NRA gun lobby's going to be sad no doubt, he was basically their second favorite member of Congress after Ron Paul. Not that their agenda has any threat to it anymore though...

Btw, all the personal attacks on Roscoe are ridiculous.

About 2010.  You don't mention that 5.25% went to Lib/Const. party candidates.   Roscoe + Lib/Const.  earned 66.7%   Duck, the Dem, got 33.2%  That's 2 to 1.

About 2008.  You don't mention that Roscoe's opponent was Jennifer Dougherty, the mayor of Frederick, Md's second largest city and population base of district 6.    And despite her standing, she badly under performed Obama, who only lost by 1,100 votes

by my count in 2008, the 6th was Bartlett by 62,719 and McCain by 61,474. 

[timothyinMD]

Boom.

4 majority minority seats in Maryland

Red= 68.5% black
Gray= 64.7% black
Purple= 59.5% minority
Orange=51.5% minority

[timothyinMD]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bal-new-districts-chart,0,852399.htmlpage

Data.

Cool, but there appears to be a typo in the category "2010 pres." Obviously, that's incorrect, but does it mean 2008 Pres., or what?

Obviously its 2008 Pres

[timothyinMD]

A non-ugly 7-1 map isn't hard at all, though it would no doubt bother some individual reps. O'Malley and the leg leaders should just offer some personal incentives to some black legislators to guarantee their support for the map and then pass one and forget what the individuals in Congress whine about.

O'Malley and the Dems basically told the blacks, and hispanics, to shut up and go to the back of the bus.  It's actually pretty amusing

[timothyinMD]

of whom not more than half are residents of Baltimore City

That anachronism is kind of amusing and sad.

You omitted the rest of that sentence... "of Baltimore City, or any one County"

[timothyinMD]

A non-ugly 7-1 map isn't hard at all, though it would no doubt bother some individual reps. O'Malley and the leg leaders should just offer some personal incentives to some black legislators to guarantee their support for the map and then pass one and forget what the individuals in Congress whine about.

O'Malley and the Dems basically told the blacks, and hispanics, to shut up and go to the back of the bus.  It's actually pretty amusing

"Several black lawmakers from the Washington region and beyond, however, said Saturday that despite Edwards’s objections, they were swayed to endorse the plan because two of Maryland’s eight congressional districts would remain majority African American and that the state’s senior African American member of Congress, Baltimore’s Rep. Elijah E. Cummings (D), supports the plan."

(from the Washington Post link above.)

Headline should be:  Blacks, Hispanics defer to O'Malley to elect another White Democrat

[timothyinMD]

Nevertheless it's interesting to see who are the pet politicians of the Maryland Democrat party, of which 1/2 of the constituents are minorities.  In 2001 it was white men Dutch Ruppersburger and Chris Van Hollen  and in 2011 it's white man Rob Garagiola.  

If referendum is an option, I think the Md Republicans will attempt it.  Our referendum on the Dream act was an overwhelming success.  We can do that again.


This is the map that the Democrats fear:



Outside these 4 districts, the vote was 53-45% McCain.