2011 and Beyond...

[Miles]

REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES UP IN THE AIR

With less than a month to go until two of the most competitive primaries in the county, the tea party is looking to capture Senate seats in Indiana and Nevada.



In Indiana, Senator Dick Lugar is trying to fend off a tea-filled challenge from Treasurer Richard Mourdock in the May 1 primary. The tea party is emphasizing Lugar's more liberal stances on immigration, his support for both of Obama's Judicial nominees and his moderate social record. Mourdock is also trying to label Lugar as out-of-touch with his constituents and has run as a much more conservative alternative.
While Lugar had an initial lead in the polls, he fell behind. However, since then, Lugar has run a better campaign than Moudock and seems to have the momentum.
Lugar's fate will largely be determined by his ability to turn out Independents in the open primary. Among only registered Republicans, Mourdock has a 47-44 lead; however, Independents break towards Lugar by a 59-36 margin.


In the general election, either Republican would be favored to win against 2008 Gubernatorial candidate Jill Long Thompson. Lugar would lead Thompson by 28 points while Mourdock would post a less impressive 10 point lead.

General election

Lugar- 61%
Thompson- 33%

Mourdock- 49%
Tompson- 39%



The May 15 Nevada primary has become a a free-for-all. Initially Dean Heller was considered the favorite to topple the scandal-plagued incumbent John Ensign; thankfully, for Ensign, the entrance of tea party challenger Sharron Angle changed the dynamic of this race. Both Ensign and Angle, rather than attacking each other, are both investing heavily in negative Heller attack ads. Ensign has consistently hovered around 32% while Heller has fallen from the high-40's to the mid-30's; Angle's level of support has risen dramatically to almost 30%.
In the general election, both Ensign and Angle would trail Democrat Dina Titus while Heller would still lead her, albeit by a reduced margin.




General election (with trend lines)

Titus- 45% (43)
Ensign- 36% (40)

Titus- 40% (37)
Heller- 46% (45)

Titus- 46% (46)
Angle- 35% (37)

[Miles]

I'm having a real rough week guys. I wanted to update the TL this week so here we go (this is kinda the bare minimum):



In the Minnesota special election, former Senator Norm Coleman will be trying to reclaim his old seat. The interim Senator, Betty McCollum was appointed after the assassination of Senator Al Franken, who beat Coleman in 2008 by less than 400 votes. McCollum has said that she will be running to fill in out the remaining 2 years of Franken's term. While Coleman was a top-tier Republican recruit, he is still expect to have an uphill battle; he will have both Obama and Klobuchar above him on the ticket.

MN Senate polls:

Klobuchar- 60%
Collett- 31%

McCollum- 48%
Coleman- 41%

[Miles]

1 MAY 2012

A MIXED NIGHT FOR THE TEA PARTY

Tonight, the first night of major non-Presidential primaries, we have results from two-highly contested and closely watched races; Indiana and North Carolina.

We begin in Indiana. Tonight, Senator Dick Lugar is fighting for his political life. With only 64% of precincts reporting, Lugar is clinging to less than a 2% lead. Despite polling suggesting Lugar in extremely perilous straits as he trailed Mourdock, he was able to mount a comeback within the last few days leading up to the primary.

64% of precincts reporting...


_{Gray counties have less than 50% reporting}

Lugar-49.7%
Mourdock- 48.4%

Looking at the Indiana exit polls we can deduce a few things about the race and look for indications of the eventual outcome:

- The Republican primary electorate consisted of 61% Republicans, 32% Independents and 7% Democrats

-Registered Republicans voted for Moudock by a roughly 57-43 margin. Independents, by contrast, broke towards Lugar by a huge 65-32 split; Lugar was extremely lucky that Indiana has an open primary system. Democrats nearly broke even; some seemed genuinely like Lugar, but some wanted the GOP to nominate the weaker candidate.



In North Carolina, former state Republican Party Chairman Robin Hayes, who ran as a conservative insurgent, has upset former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, denying him a rematch with Gov. Bev Perdue. Hayes called McCrory out-of-touch with the more conservative rural parts of the state and labelled him as an unprincipled, big-government Republican. During the last few weeks of the campaign, the tea party dumped $3 million into the smaller rural media markets in the state for Hayes. McCrory ran up predictably large margins in Charlotte and the Research Triangle, but it was not enough to save him. With virtually all precincts in, Hayes is maintaining a .9% lead.

Hayes- 48.9%
McCrory- 48.0%

Team Perdue is certainly breathing easier after this primary. Bev Perdue cruised to victory with 76% of her primary vote, despite her lacking statewide approval ratings. Recent polls had her trailing McCrory, but leading Hayes. While Perdue is certainly not out of the woods yet, she is expected to have an easier time retaining her seat.

PPP- NC Governor Polls (April 25-28)

Perdue- 39%
McCrory- 48%

Perdue- 43%
Hayes- 41%

Perdue Approval- 37/47

[Miles]

ANTI-INCUMBENT!!?? NOT HERE!
LUGAR WIN IS BIG SETBACK FOR TEA PARTY

In what has been the first of many competitive Senate primaries to come, the establishment has pulled through in Indiana. As more precincts have poured in, its has become increasingly unlikely that Richard Mourdock will get the support he needs to unseat Senator Lugar.

With 99.9% of votes tallied, Lugar's lead is holding up:

Lugar- 50.2%
Mourdock- 48.9%

To win the primary, Lugar put together an interesting electoral coalition. The Senator actually lost among registered Republicans by 15 points, 57-42. However, there is no question that Independent voters, who made up a whopping 31% of the primary electorate, obviously delivered for Lugar, as they went nearly 2-1 in his favor. Democrats, who made up 7% of the Republican primary, split nearly even between Lugar and Mourdock; 52% of Democrats seemed to genuinely like Lugar, while 47% wanted Republicans to nominate the weaker candidate. Overall, Lugar's coalition of moderate Republicans, Independnets and conservative Democrats pulled him over the finish line and allowed him to retain his seat. Going into the general election, Lugar leads Jill Thompson by margins of 30 points and is heavily favored.

Primary breakdown by party:

[Miles]

What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

That also sounds pretty bipartisan to me.

[Miles]

JUST THE RIGHT ANGLE

CONTROVERSIAL SHARRON ANGLE WINS GOP PRIMARY...AGAIN

ANGLE, TITUS COMPETE TO BECOME NV'S 1ST FEMALE SENATOR

Nevada Republicans essentially had three choices in their primary today; they had a good choice, a bad choice and an ugly choice. The consensus among political junkies: they sure didn't chose the good one.
Despite her initial baggage, tea party Republican Sharron Angle will be ousting Sen. John Ensign, and fending off a challenge from Rep. Dean Heller. Heller, the strongest candidate in the general election, was primarily the subject of negative attack ads from both Ensign and Angle. While both Ensign and Angle focused on dragging Heller's numbers down, Nevada Republicans seemed unwilling to forgive Ensign for his marriage scandal; Ensign thus underperformed and Angle was able to slide through.
For the tea party, the Angle win is comes as a hard-fought victory after a stinging loss in Indiana. After their win here in Nevada, other Senate races the tea party will be focusing on will include those in ME, FL, MO and TN.

Angle- 35.1%
Heller- 34.2%
Ensign*- 27.8%

From a county-by-county perspective, roughly 48% of votes came from Clark county. This county delivered for Angle, who won there with 37% compared to Ensign's 28% and Heller's 32%. In the second largest vote source, Washoe County, making up 23% of the electorate, Ensign fared better, beating Angle 38-33, but it was not enough to compensate for his poor performance in Clark County. In the rural areas, accounting for the remaining 29% of the electorate, Heller and Angle ran even, each averaging about 35% with Ensign trailing with 28%.

Looking towards the general election, Republicans now have a decidedly uphill climb. Dina Titus was easily elected the Democratic nominee and has been leading Angle in the polls; the most recent Mason-Dixon gave Titus a 46-38 advantage and most handicappers will likely move Nevada from 'Tossup' to at least 'Lean Democrat.' The winner in November will become Nevada's first female Senator.

Nevada is also an interesting state in that 2 of its 4 House seats will be open. Congressmen Joe Heck and Shelley Berkley will be virtually assured victory. In the new 4th district, a liberal Las Vegas-based district, Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani has won her primary and is a favorite to win the general election; she will be running against Republican John Chachas. To fill Dean Heller's open seat, Sue Lowden who owns property in Reno, will run against Nancy Price; the district is only slightly red. Still, it looks like Nevada will be sending an evenly split delegation to the House.

NV district PVI's:
NV-01: D+11 (Berkley)
NV-02: R+4 (Lowden vs Price)
NV-03: R+7 (Heck)
NV-04: D+7 (Guinchigliani vs Chachas)

[Miles]

Ok, guys, I appreciate your enthusiasm, but in this TL, Lugar wins, although by a narrow margin. There, its over; we can move on. Lugar will easily win the general election and I may have other plans for Mourdock. There; everything will be fine and rosy!

[Miles]

In our first look at the general election match up since Romney locked up the Republican nomination, we find a competitive. With unemployment still floating at 7.9%, we can expect voters to hold Obama accountable for the slower-than-expected recovery rate. Romney holds Obama under 270 electoral and under 50% nationally. However, Obama clings to a 12-point electoral college margin and a 2-point popular vote advantage. Both Obama and Romney post slightly positive approvals/favorables; however, since neither one can break 50%, we have the potential for a very competitive contest.

Aggregate numbers:

Do you approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
Yes- 48%
No- 47%

Do you have a favorable view of Mitt Romney?
Yes- 46%
No- 42%

Who are you planning on voting for this November?
Obama- 47%
Romeny- 45%

In the electoral college, both candidates have their respective regional bases locked up. The Romney campaign is aggressively contesting previously blue states such as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Colorado, all with varying degrees of success. Obama is still betting on the "new South" by strongly contesting Virginia and North Carolina.
One state where Obama has made inroads lately is Ohio; the governor, Ted Strickland, has helped Obama fund-raise and campaign. Strickland, who narrowly clung to reelection in 2010 by less than 1000 votes, has mobilized much of the state's Democratic machinery; many considered Strickland's reelection in 2010 the test-case for Obama's 2012 Ohio campaign. Unemployment in Ohio is down to 8.1%, marginally above the national average.
States where Romney is performing well include the swing state of Florida and New Hampshire.

OBAMA- 236
ROMNEY -224

Senate Outlook

A few key races...


I'll have an updated House map out within a few days.

[Miles]

Before I post the House map, I have a special feature on the home state of yours truly...

REDISTRICTING FREE-FOR-ALL IN LOUISIANA
NEW LA MAP PITS 4 INCUMBENTS AGAINST EACH OTHER IN JUNGLE PRIMARIES

A brutal redistricting fight recently concluded between Governor Bobby Jindal and Attorney General Eric Holder. The original map submitted by the Louisiana Legislature only allowed for one minority-majority district, with African Americans making up 52% of the electorate their, while the remaining five districts would be solidly Republican. When the Obama DOJ insisted that Louisiana draw two VRA districts, Jindal decried this move as a "blatant and obvious partisan abuse of the law" and "racial politics at its worst." After initially attempting to resist and swim around the DOJ's order, a lengthy court battle ensued over the map borders. Finally, in March of 2012, the DOJ cleared Louisiana's final proposal, passed by the Republican state legislature and signed by a reluctant Jindal.
The new map consists now contains a second minority district, with a 54% black to 41% whites. LA-02, the original VRA district, increases its minority population with 53% black to 37% white.

The political ramifications from LA redistricting will be very interesting to watch as they develop.  In 4 of the 6 districts, high-profile LA politicians will be running against each other. The additional VRA district has forced Congressmen John Flemming and Rodney Alexander to be drawn into the same north-central Louisiana district, LA-04. While the 4th is Republican leaning, both will be competing in a jungle primary, potentially splitting the Republican vote; still, no prominent Democrats have appeared interested in running .
After the second redistricting plan was drafted,the old  LA-03 was left fairly similar to its current configuration (except it was numbered as the LA-06). While it retained much of its coastal lands, it has "arms" that extend near Lafayette and Baton Rouge, on either side. Because it takes in parts of Baton Rouge, Rep. Jeff Landry will be running against Rep. Bill Cassidy, setting up a proxy war between the LA Republican establishment and the tea party.

In both VRA districts, the Congressional races are looking to be equally as harsh.
In LA-02, incumbent Cedric Richmond, who carried baggage in 2010 despite his landslide win, is being challenged by former Congressman Charlie Melancon. The second district has expanded to include rural south parishes, as well as Melancon's home in Napoleonville. Louisiana Attorney General Joesph Cao said that he has "no interest" in running for his old seat.
Finally, the newly open minority 5th will feature a contest between State Rep. Michael Jackson of Baton Rouge, an Independent, Republican Chris Hazel of Alexandria, another state legislator and 2010 Democratic nominee Tom Gibbs.
Congressman Steve Scalise and Charles Boustany, because they have managed to keep their districts to themselves, have remained relatively insulated from the entire process.

LA District PVIs


LA Congressional Polls for competitive districts



....................................................................................Louisiana politics can never be clean!

[Miles]

MAY 8 2012

PPP+SurveyUSA: In our second comprehensive look at the House elections, we found little change since our late February survey. Since then, we have gotten a clearer picture of the dynamics of each race as well as the electoral landscape as a whole; clear candidates are beginning to emerge as primaries approach and all district lines are final.

Based on our polls, Republicans are still favored to hold the People's House. Our late February polls found Republicans maintaining control with 218 districts to Democrats' 197. Four months later, we found minimal movement; Republicans are favored to hold at least 215 seats to Democrats' 195.



Republicans seats favored to flip:
FL-25 (Rivera)
MN-08 (Cravaack)
WV-01 (McKinley)
MT-AL (Open)
WY-AL (Lummis)
IL-13 (Schilling)
IL-06 (Dold)
IL-08 (Walsh)
LA-05 (Open)

Democratic seats favored to flip:
IN-02 (Open)
NC-08 (Open)
NC-13 (Miller)
OR-01 (Wu)

A few races to watch across the country.

[Miles]

Incredible maps! Love the dedication

lol. Wait 'till I start rolling out the election results! I'm planning on having the House results broken down by district AND county lines! Here's an example (NC-13):

I haven't been completely following this, but has Romney chosen a running mate yet?

No, both Romney and Obama will be choosing running mates later (Biden will be taking over as SoS).

Whats going on in Floridas 22nd district (my district), with Allen West.

Former West Palm Beach mayor Louis Frankel is challenging Allen West. For simplicity's sake, the district itself stayed fairly unchanged.


****If anyone wants to see regions of the map in greater detail, try this link; you should be able to find the FULL size version of the map.
http://content.screencast.com/users/Milesc56/folders/Snagit/media/5cd83d62-d58a-4bec-bda8-fa57153e9f28/05.01.2011-18.31.01.bmp
Anyway, for my next post, I'll have primary results from:
- CT (we'll see how Lieberman fares as a Republican)
- UT (we find out which Republican gets to challenge Orrin Hatch and the fate of Jim Matheson)
- OH (competitive Senate primaries on both sides)
- PA (pretty boring)

[Miles]

If anyone cares, here's the House districts map with counties.

http://content.screencast.com/users/Milesc56/folders/Snagit/media/486697a9-9fc0-4e99-810b-24bb255ad62e/05.01.2011-23.28.51.png

[Miles]

NOT EVEN CLOSE
CT GOP ENDS LIEBERMAN'S CAREER, PROGRESSIVES CHEER

In one of the most interesting and closely followed primaries of this year, Linda McMahon will be defeating Senator Joe Lieberamn for the Republican Senate nomination. Lieberman switched to caucus with the GOP in 2011, still, his 20+ year association with the Democratic party was difficult to sell in a Republican primary. Another one of Lieberman's missteps could have been a fundraiser he hosted with Sen. John McCain, an unpopular figure to Republicans. McMahon nailed Lieberman on flip-flopping on economic issues, still, to have a chance in the general election, McMahon will undoubtedly have to track left. The Democrats have nominated Rep. Jim Himes, who won over minor opponents. Lieberman, unlike hos iconic 2006 run, said that he will not run in the general election as an Independent.

In Ohio, our general election field has taken shape. On the Democratic side, Senator Sherrod Brown has easily fended off a challenge from his right in former Congressman Steve Driehaus. Brown had the support of a motivated liberal base and strong labor movement. Polls initially suggested this primary had the potential to be competitive, but Brown will win with 60%.
Far Republicans, the primary was much closer. State Auditor Mary Taylor will be defeating Congresswoman Jean Schmidt. This comes as bad news for the Democrats; most polls showed Brown with a double-digit lead over Schmidt, but in a much closer contest against Taylor.
The labor movement sweeping across the midwest will have a large roll in the outcome of this election. In the states of Michigan and Wisconsin, Republican governors have stripped away collective bargaining rights of workers; Governor Strickland, who survived reelection by only 618 votes, is battling Republican supermajorites in both state legislative chambers over collective bargaining rights. With roughly 63% of each state chamber, Republicans cannot override a veto, but the fight over labor has nonetheless ignited the Democratic base. While Mary Taylor has said that she is not in favor of taking collective bargaining rights for unions, Brown will undoubtedly try to tie her to the unpopular state Republicans.

[Miles]

June 1 2012
OBAMA TO ANNOUNCE BIDEN REPLACEMENT "BY THE END OF JUNE"

"Politico- Today President Obama announced that he will make his VP selection by the end of the month. Following a major Cabinet reshuffling, current VP Joe Biden will be taking over the State Department, assuming Obama is reelected. With a large number of names circulating the blogosphere, these are the names that have been mentioned by top Democratic strategists most frequently:

GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER- MONTANA



Pros:
-During his tenure as Governor, he created the largest budget surplus in Montana's history
-Known for working across the aisle
-Expertise in energy and agricultural issues
-Would make the Democratic ticket more competitive in rural areas; would likely hand Obama Montana, possibly the Dakotas and Missouri, solidify Colorado, Nevada and other western states

Cons:
- Shcweitzer is already running for Congress, if he is elected VP, Republicans would have the benefit of the doubt to succeed him in red-leaning Montana
-Montana only has 3 electoral votes
- His executive style can be a overly aggressive and fiery at times, contrasting with Obama's cool temperament

APPROVAL RATING: 57/31
GOV. GENE TAYLOR- MISSISSIPPI



Pros:
-With over 20 years of experience, Taylor knows the inner workings of Congress
-Mississippi is in sound financial shape, posting slight surpluses
-Has wide crossover appeal

Cons:
-On social issues, he's to the right if Romney; liberals would freak out
-Lack of executive experience; he's been Governor for less than a year
-Even with Taylor, Obama would still struggle in the Gulf Coast states

APPROVAL RATING: 53/37

SEN. BOB CASEY-PENNSYLVANIA



Pros:
-With Obama underwater in PA, his last approvals were 45/47, Casey would likely deliver Obama PA's 20 electoral votes
-Well liked by Democrats and Independents and could draw moderate Republicans
-Could help in other rust belt states

Cons:
-Pro-life stance would frustrate progressives
-Only 1 term in the Senate
-Casey's Senate seat is up this year; Dems have a lackluster bench in PA to replace him

APPROVAL RATING: 50/36

SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR-MINNESOTA



Pros:
-One of the most popular Senators from either party
-Would energize women and satisfy liberals
-A strong candidate to succeed Obama in 2016

Cons:
-Like Casey, she has a Senate election in 2012 as well, though Democrats would be better off holding a seat in MN than PA
-Only 1 term in the Senate
-Despite her popularity, her profile is still fairly low

APPROVAL RATING: 60/32

SEN. PATTY MURRAY-WASHINGTON



Pros:
-Murray would also energize women and progressives
-'Mom in tennis shoes' could resonate well with middle class
- Has the ability to win close elections and campaign effectively
- Former DSCC Chairman; can raise money well

Cons:
-Could be seen as too liberal to Independents
-Obama already polls well in WA
-She's high in the Senate Democratic ranks and may eventually want to a position of even greater stature in the Democratic caucus, rather than to oversee the entire Senate

APPROVAL RATING: 49/38

GOV. JOHN LYNCH- NEW HAMPSHIRE



Pros:
-Among the most popular Governors
-Lynch would neutralize Romney's large operation in NH
-He rode out the 2010 GOP wave in NH relatively comfortably
-Would satisfy the left, but still appeal to the center

Cons:
-Relative unknown to most
-Outside of NH, Obama already polls well in New England

APPROVAL RATING: 58/35

[Miles]

You had already said that Clinton would be the running mate.

Clinton is becoming the Secretary of Defense.

[Miles]

CONTENTIOUS FLORIDA PRIMARY PLAYS OBAMA AGAINST CLINTON, GOP SENATORS AGAINST TEA PARTY

As Senate primary season begins to kick into high gear, no contest is more closely watched than that in Florida. Both Democrats and Republicans have invested enormously here and heavy-hitters from each party have been flocking to Florida.

On the Democratic side, it feels like 2010 all over again. Former Governor Charlie Crist, who left office on fairly favorable terms, is battling against 2010 Democratic nominee Rep. Kendrick Meek. In 2010, President Bill Clinton emerged as top Meek ally and will be sticking with Meek during his 2012 campaign. According to President Clinton "Kendrick is the right candidate for Florida. I think Democrats, Independents and even Republicans can agree that, during his time in the House, he put his constituents above the politics of the moment. Thats what a state deserves in a Senator! Kendrick is fighter; when the going gets tough, he's not one to give up/" Despite a rocky 2010 finish Meek insists he will be victorious this year. " I'm the candidate who has a track record of legislating for the working families of Florida. I've led the charge against unfair policies that favor the rich and the established powers over our own hardworking citizens." Meek has also picked up endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus, the ACLU and Senators Boxer, Brown (OH), Sanders and Franken.

President Obama, meanwhile, has endorsed Crist. During his time as Governor, Crist was one of the few Republicans who worked with Obama; he even went so far as to become the sole Republican Governor to endorse Obama's stimulus package. In a rally for Crist, Obama cited the former Governor's bipartisan efforts and criticized the GOP for its "extreme" stances. "Now, as many of you know, when Charlie was Governor, he always did what was best for the people of Florida. Unfortunately, some of his policies weren't too popular with those on the far right who run the Republican Party, even tough his approval rating were through the roof! In fact, they denied him a chance to become a Senator in 2010 because he was "too moderate!" Here in the Democratic Party, we welcome Charlie's common sense approach to governing and I look forward to working with him in the Senate." A handful of other top Democrats have endorsed Crist, such as Senators Landrieu, Pryor, Lincoln and Manchin.

Polls have Crist narrowly ahead and doing better in the general election. Senator Bill Nelson, who is retiring, said that he will not endorse in the primary.

The Republican primary promises to be just as dramatic. Former Senator George LeMieux is running against George Prescott Bush, son of former FL Governor Jeb Bush.

During his time in the Senate, LeMieux became somewhat of rising star within the caucus and many Republican Senators have said that they would like to see him again in the Senate. LeMieux is essentially running as the "establishment" candidate. Senator Mitch McConnell has endorsed him; "In the Senate, George stood as a solid voice for fiscal sanity and was key member of the caucus. I think if the voters of Florida elect him, he will serve them well just as he has in the past." LeMieux also has the backing of several other ranking Republicans, including Senators Sessions, Kyl, Burr and Barrasso.

George P. Bush, unlike his cousin Barbara who has taken many centrist stances in her Texas campaign, has embraced the tea party. Bush said that he was inspired by Senator Marco Rubio's rapid rise the Senate. "Marco's campaign was truly motivational to me. Working from the ground up, we toppled the establishment and sent a true conservative luminary to Washington. We need more Senators like him who are tough on spending and stand up for conservative values. That's why I'm running. Florida is a right-of-center state and we can't afford to keep electing liberals like Nelson or Crist." Bush's uncle, former President George W. Bush has campaigned on his behalf. "During my administration, I would have loved to have George as a Senator; his passion for the issues and his dedication to the Constitution is unparalleled." As expected, Bush has the endorsement of Senator Rubio and the Tea Party Caucus.

One factor which may hurt Republicans here is the deep unpopularity of Governor Rick Scott. While Obama is on slightly negative ground in Florida, the latest Quinnipiac poll found voters disapproving of Scott by greater than a 2:1 margin. Scott, perhaps for the good of his party, has not endorsed a candidate in the Senate race; top state Republicans secretly admit that an endorsement from him could cripple either Bush or LeMieux in the general election. The Obama campaign is already running ads in Florida trying to link GOP nominee Mitt Romney to the wildly unpopular Scott as part of his strategy to hold Florida's 29 electoral votes.

Polling:


Favorables:

Crist............................47/39
Meek...........................40/31
LeMieux......................37/29
Bush...........................35/30

Job Approvals:

Barack Obama............46/50
Rick Scott....................28/62

[Miles]

Rachel Maddow: Welcome to MSNBC's election coverage of this last round of Senate primaries. I'm Rachel Maddow and joining me here in my studio is my colleague Chris Matthews. We hope you'll join us for the next few hours as we roll in results from all across the country. Tonight will be nothing less than a defining night in American politics. While the presidential race between President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney is heating up, and VP speculation is running rampant, tonight we will be covering many Senate races-to-watch.
Chris: That's absolutely right, Rachel. The presidential race is important, but these Senate contests will show us how voters are feeling on the more local levels. Lets not forgot, with Democrats clinging to a 51-seat majority, almost any state could shift the balance in the Senate.

Rachel: And it looks like we have our first round of results coming in. With most precincts in, voters in the Sunshine state have chosen Senate nominees for the seat being vacated by Senator Bill Nelson. On the Democratic side, former Governor Charlie Crist is holding onto just under a 2-point lead over his opponent, former Congressman Kendrick Meek.
Chris: And Republicans have narrowly elected former Senator George LeMieux over George Prescott Bush, the son of Governor Jeb Bush. Very interesting. The Bush family clout worked for Barbara Bush in Texas, but they couldn't quite get by in Texas. I think we could be seeing more from Bush in the future, but tonight just wasn't his night.  In any case, this will no doubt be one the marquee Senate races this year; it could even hinge on the President's performance there.
Rachel: There's another interesting dynamic here. LeMieux owes his national prominence to Crist. Crist appointed him to the Senate and LeMieux was essentially Crist's right-hand man for most of term as governor. To say that I'm interested to see how this race turns out would be a vast understatement....

Democratic Primary



CRIST- 47.2%
MEEK- 45.7%

Republican Primary



LEMIEUX- 48.0%
BUSH- 46.5%

Chris: Now it looks like we have a first results from Utah starting to come in. Let me tell 'ya, Beehive State politics is something else...
Rachel: That's right, Chris. Senator Orrin Hatch, after seeing his colleague Bob Bennett get whacked at the Republican Convention last cycle, decided that he too would likely fail the purity test and subsequently fled the GOP to run as an Independent. Had Hatch stayed a Republican, his career would have probably ended at the Convention a few months ago and he wouldn't have even made it to this primary!  
Chris: Also, no Democrat filed to run for Senate. Some are saying that Hatch made a deal with the Utah Democratic Party; if they didn't run as candidate, he would become the default-Democrat and still pick up moderate Republicans. Will it work? We'll see...
Rachel: We'll see what  happens to Senator Hatch. Tonight Republicans decided who they will run against him in the general election. The top two vote-getters at the convention were Rep. Jason Chaffetz and lawyer Tim Bridgewater. From what we can gather, Chaffetz will be winning by about 8 points.
Chris: Lets not forget that Utah is almost a single-party Republican state. Will it only vote for a Senator with an "R" behind his name? The polls are tight so this election could boil down the ground game of these candidates. No doubt Hatch is taking a big risk. No telling whether he's just prolonging his fate by running as an Independent.

CHAFFETZ- 54.2%
BRIDGEWATER- 45.8%

Chris: Next we're going to Tennessee, where its bad news if you're an incumbent Republican Senator. Remember, back in 2006, Tennessee was one of the few bright spots for Republicans; it was the only competitive race that went to the GOP as Bob Corker kept Bill Frist's seat. Well, tonight Corker will be losing the GOP nomination for that seat in the primary.
Rachel: Corker was never especially liked by conservatives; he made it onto a few tea party primary "hit lists." The Republican field for this race was pretty very crowded; it looks like Corker just got drowned out. The GOP nod will instead go to Congressman Zach Wamp. Wamp ran as seemed to successfully bridge the gap between the tea party and the GOP establishment. Singer Hank Williams Jr., former Congressman Van Hilleary and perennial/joke candidate Basil Marceaux also ran.
Chris: On the Democratic side, former Congressman Bart Gordon has had a pretty easy walk to the nomination. Even though Tennessee is red, a respected  guy like Gordon could have a shot at winning, especially with Corker gone. This just shows you how crazy these primaries can be. I mean, who would have though Bob Bennett, Mike Castle and now Bob Corker would go down like this!?
Rachel: And no word from the Corker camp about a possible write-in or independent run. Looks like his options are pretty slim at this point; he'd have to do a ton of legal and logistical maneuvering to even get back on the ballot.

Wamp- 32.6%
Corker*- 30.1%
Hilleary- 19.0%
Williams- 16.5%
Marceaux- 1.1%

Chris: Missouri has always had interesting elections and tonight is no exception. Freshman Claire McCaskill, who was a big Obama supporter in 2008, could be in for a bumpy ride.
Rachel: Yep. The main contest tonight was between Republicans vying to dislodge her  in the fall. Sarah Steelman emerged as a tea party contender, she won the backing if Senator Jim DeMint and made a real grassroots effort to connect with conservative rural voters. On the other hand Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer ran as more traditional Republican, who was close with the establishment powers.  From what we can report so far, it looks like this will be another close race. Still, we can project that Steelman will hold into a victory with about 51% to 48% to Luetkemeyer.
Chris: Well, looking at the polls, McCaskill would have had a close race with either of the candidates. Steelman definitively has conservative enthusiasm on her side, but she could be seen as less mainstream. This is another seat that could well hinge on the outcome of the Presidential race.
Even if you look at the primary map, you can find clues about the genera election. Steelman performed well in the very socially conservative southern and western regions and narrowly pulled out Kansas City.. Luetkemeyer took a more suburban strategy and won the St. Louis suburbs, most of his district and even a few college towns. This polarization is very interesting.

STEELMAN- 51.1%
LUETKEMEYER- 47.7%

Rachel: Moving to our last state, the Evergreen State looks like a mixed bag for Democrats. The jungle primaries tonight will determine which candidates will advance to the fall election. Senator Maria Cantwell has won a clear majority. The Republican vote was fractured mostly between 2010 House candidate Chris Koster and tea partier Clint Didier. With a 27%, Koster will be the Republican advancing with Cantwell. Nonetheless, Cantwell looks to be in fairly solid shape, as exit polls showed her job approval ratings at a positive 49/36 spread.
Chris: Well Rachel, one thing that definitely isn't positive for Democrats is Governor Gregoire's performance. While she will still be advancing to the general election, she has finished in second place. Even with another semi-major Republican on the ticket, conseervative businessman Paul Akers, Republican AG Rob McKenna has a 6-point lead over Gregoire. Going forward, its very tough to see how Gregroire wins in the general election. Bottom line, if the election were today, she'd lose.
Rachel: Governor Gregoire essentially has 4 months to win back enough voters for her third term. We've seen another unpopular Democratic Governor, Bev Perdue in North Carolina, "luck out" and get a lower-tier opponent over a more electable one, but Gregroire had no such luck. For the record, voters from the exit polls don't like Gregoire, but they're not in love with McKenna either; our polls show that they disapprove of Gregoire 40/51, but only 44% have a favorable opinion of McKenna to 41% who see him negatively. So, this wraps up out and we hope you enjoyed our coverage and that you will join us again for future elections!

Washington Senate Jungle Primary


CANTWELL (D)- 51.4%
KOSTER (R)- 26.8%
DIDIER (R)- 19.3%
OTHERS- 2.5%

Washington Gubernatorial Jungle Primary


MCKENNA (R)- 46.6%
GREGOIRE (D)- 41.0%
AKERS (R)-7.7%
OTHERS- 4.7%

[Miles]

Nate Silver/538.com-

"Now that each party has their nominees chosen in all 35 Senate races, we at 538.com have released our first full election forecast. The results are based on recent polls as well as 100,000 election simulations.

Based on our results, control of the upper chamber could hinge on virtually any state. Overall, Democrats are likely to hold onto 51 seats to 48 for Republicans and 1 seat is an outright statistical tie.

Each party is favored to "pick-up" two seats thus far. Republicans will almost certainly take Nebraska, we give GOP Governor Heineman a 98.9% chance of winning there. In Ohio Republican AG Mary Taylor is a slight favorite to oust freshman Sherrod Brown; Taylor's chance of victory is 50.4% compared to Brown's 49.6%.

Nevada will be a bright spot for Democrats this year. Former Rep. Dina Titus has an 85.4% chance of flipping that seat over to Democrats and defeating tea partier Sharron Angle. The other likely Democratic pickup is Connecticut, where Rep. Jim Himes is a 65% favorite to defeat Linda McMahon and take back Joe Lieberman's seat.

The New Jersey Special election is an absolute tie; appointed Senator Frank LoBiondo and former Governor Jon Corzine each won in 50,000 simulations. If there was a state most likely to flip the Senate balance, it could be New Jersey. Its other Senator, Bob Menedez, is looking fairly decent, as he has a 68.4% chance of retaining his seat.

We project that 3 Independents will win as well. The safest is Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who has no major party opposition. In Maine Olympia Snowe is also running strong for a 4th term; she has an 84% likelihood of winning her 3-way race. Finally, Orrin Hatch is only a narrow favorite, posting a 50.3% chance of winning.

We'll have House and President simulations out soon."



Projected Election Results by State

[Miles]

Nate Silver/538.com-

"Much the same as with our Senate forecast, our first Presidential simulation has yielded a very close result. Our initial look at the Presidential race shows President Obama clinging to a bare 270 electoral votes to 262 for Republican challenger Mitt Romney; they both have a statistically equal chance of carrying Nevada. As for the popular vote, we project Obama winning by roughly a 50-48.5 margin; quite a far cry from his 7-point victory over Senator McCain in 2008.

Despite the unpopularity of several Republican Governors in the region, Obama continues to struggle in areas of the Industrial Midwest. The states that are most worrisome for him are Ohio, Pennsylvania, and to a lesser extent, Indiana. We project Romney as a moderate favorite to win Ohio, he has a 59% of carrying its 18 electoral votes. An encore performance in Indiana is unlikely for Obama at this point; his chances are a mere 37% to Romney's 63%. We give Romney only a narrow edge Pennsylvania; he posts a 50.8% chance of winning there to Obama's 49.2%. If the President has any room for improvement nationally, much of it would be in these states.

Romney posts similar leads in the states of Florida and New Hampshire. Ever since the primaries, Romney has been running a solid campaign operation in the Granite State and his efforts seem to be paying off. Just next to New Hampshire, Obama is in a rather perilous position in Maine. Even though Maine was an 18-point slaughter for Republicans in 2008, Romney is using his northeastern image to appeal to Independent voters there. Still, Obama is a favorite to carry Maine. Romney is favored to win Florida, but Obama has closed the gap in most polls. Over the last few months Obama has turned an average deficit of 7 points into a deficit of only 2 or 3 points in the latest polls.

Despite his relatively poor standing in the aforementioned states, there is some good news for the President. Obama is favored to hold at least 5 of 9 states he flipped in 2008. He's headed for a victory of roughly 3 and 6 points in the states of Iowa and Virginia, respectively. The President is in even stronger standings in Colorado and New Mexico where his chances of winning are 76% and 85%, respectively. Lastly, the home of the 2012 Democratic Convention, North Carolina, is marginally favorable to Obama; were we project him winning by 1 point."




Obama and Romney split our list of the 18 most competitive states almost evenly; Obama is favored in 8, Romney takes 9 of them and Nevada is tied.

Projected Results in Competitive/Swing States

[Miles]

Did Obama chose his new VP yet, or did I miss it somewhere in the thread?

As always, great job and please continue!

The next few posts will deal with the VPs!

[Miles]

OBAMA MAKES VP PICK: POPULAR AR GOVERNOR MIKE BEEBE

Politico-

"Today President Obama picked his 2012 Vice Presidential running-mate; Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe. Beebe, elected in 2006, has been among the most well-liked Governors in the state's history. Despite the GOP tide that struck the state in 2008, Beebe was reelected in a landslide, winning by more than 30 points. Since then Beebe has remained very popular; the last poll taken showed that 65% approved of his performance to only 29% who disapprove.

In his announcement speech, Obama cited Beebe's work as a problem-solver within his state. "While searching for a running mate, Mike's record stuck out me. To Mike, there are no such things as 'Democratic ideas or Republican ideas' only 'good ideas' and 'bad ideas.' This centrist approach has outlined his approach to governing. We could use more of that in Washington."

Obama also quipped about Beebe's record as a fiscal conservative. "I'm surprised that the tea party hasn't endorsed him! They want lower taxes and a more efficient government, right!?Then I give you Exhibit A: Governor Beebe!" During his 6-year tenure as Governor, he has drawn dozens of new businesses to Arkansas by reducing taxes on both corporations and individuals. Arkansas' unemployment rate is well under the national rate of 8.0%; it stands at 6.8%.

Governor Beebe himself also expressed enthusiasm about his selection. "Arkansas has a rich tradition of sending Democrats to Washington. For years, out two great Senators, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor, as well as our Congressional Democrats, have done a great job of representing our Arkansan values in the Senate. As I aspire to the President of the Senate, I hope to join them in fighting not only for the people of this state, but for all Americans.

I truly believe that Washington can learn from what we've done here in the Razorback State. During my time as Governor, I tried to follow in the footsteps of another giant from Arkansas, President Clinton. I hear this all the time from some Republicans, they ask me: Why are you a Democrat? Democrats are just a bunch of big-spending fiscal liberals who are borrowing us into an oblivion. I tell them: Have you ever heard of Bill Clinton!?"

Beebe went on to emphasize his record of public service. "Throughout my twenty years in politics, two if my prime issues have been education and fiscal conservatism.  While Republicans all over the country are axing their education systems and laying off teachers, I expanded our early education programs and made record investments in our universities and smaller local colleges. As a result, Arkansans will have an edge in the job market for decades to come. In bringing my perspective to the table, I hope to duplicate this on the national level. Also, while most states are in the fiscal red, I've worked with the Legislature kept Arkansas going strong. Our country faces real challenges that will extend far beyond this election cycle. As Vice President, I will bring my agenda for jobs and education to Washington."

Despite Obama's selection, it remains to be seen whether he will ultimately be able to carry the state's 6 electoral votes. Ever since the days of Bill Clinton, Arkansas has aggressively trended Republican.  In 2008, McCain won there 59-39. In 2010, Democrats lost control of the states Congressional delegation, though Senator Blanche Lincoln narrowly won reelection against a very flawed opponent, Gilbert Baker.

Most pundits agree that in picking Beebe, Obama is aiming to strengthen his standing among Independents and moderate voters rather than playing to the liberal base. MSNBC analysis Chuck Todd maintains that "there could be some backlash from the left here, but Obama really does need to go after those crucial independent and centrist voters. Beebe was a good pick for that." Todd also conjectured about Republican Mitt Romney's selection "I think Romney will take the opposite route and chose a fairly conservative running mate. Most Republicans already view him as slightly liberal, so a more conservative VP choice could help him secure his ranks within his own party."

Romney is slated to make his VP choice next week."

[Miles]

GOP TICKET EMERGES WITH ROMNEY VP CHOICE:  SEN. JOHN THUNE

Politico-

"With Obama's choice of Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe last week, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney today made his VP selection. Senator John Thune, who has represented  South Dakota for 8 years thus far in the Senate and 6 in the House, will join Romney on the GOP ticket. Like his Democratic counterpart, Governor Beebe, Thune is hugely popular among his constituents; the last poll showed Thune with a whopping 63/29 approval rating.

In his speech, Romney emphasized Thune's strong electoral record as well as his accomplishments in the Senate. "I believe the ultimate barometer for anyone in public service is their relationship with the people they represent. John Thune has always kept the values of the people of South Dakota with him. For 6 years, John represented South Dakota in the People's House; during those years, he was always elected in landslides. Then, in 2002, he decided to run for Senate. After a brutal campaign, John lost the closest Senate election in state history. After that loss, he could have easily given up. But that's not John. In 2004, he came back stronger than ever, as he became the first candidate in 52 years to oust a sitting Party Leader in the Senate. I truly admire this persistence to do the right thing.

Since becoming a member of the Senate, he quickly emerged as a leader within the Republican caucus on a number of issues ranging from taxes, to agriculture, to foreign policy and to transportation. He has been a powerful voice for responsible spending and commonsense reforms. Even as he has become one of the most influential conservatives within the Senate, he has never lost touch with the people who sent him there. In fact, last election cycle, no one even filled to challenge him!

I chose John because he represents a fresh approach to responsible, conservative governance. He will be a Vice President for all generations. While he has done an excellent job representing his constituents, the positive results of John's work in the Senate have rippled  well past the prairies of South Dakota. His legislative experience will be an invaluable asset to the Republican ticket. "

Thune responded. "When Governor Romney asked me to run as Vice President, I knew that my county was calling me. I couldn't be more excited that this opportunity was afforded to me. While this a great time to be a Republican, our country faces challenges. Working with Governor Romney, our administration's prime focus will be to expand the private sector and to create a more efficient federal government. I have fought for jobs and smaller government during my time in the Senate and I will do the same in by using my influence as Vice President.

I would encourage Americans, over these next few months to examine my record. Because of the pro-growth policies that I have fostered, along with other Republicans in my state, South Dakota has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. As Vice President, I will make sure that every state state will enjoy prosperity."

With both major party tickets set, campaign season will fully ensue. The Democratic and Republican Conventions, respectively in Charlotte and Tampa, will take place in roughly a month."

[Miles]

29 AUGUST 2012

DEMS MAKE 2012 PITCH IN THE QUEEN CITY; HOST GOV. PERDUE: "THIS IS OUR CHANCE"

As the 2012 Democratic National Convention kicked into gear, top Democrats aimed to use this opportunity to remind voters what President Obama and Democrats have accomplished since 2008. At the same, many speakers at the Convention took the time to attack the Republican ticket. However, one obviously common theme throughout the convention was the need to reelect President Obama. Governor Bev Perdue said "ever since Charlotte was selected, I was intent on making this the most memorable party convention in recent history" and that she would use it to "showcase the progress that North Carolina has made under President Obama's policies." "Working with Mayor Foxx and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, we left no stone unturned. This convention will offer Democrats an excellent chance to show the nation what our party offers."

The keynote speaker, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico, who is running for Senate, also gave a most impressive performance. While he praised Obama's record, he also blasted the Republican Party. "At this critical point in our history, we cannot afford to go back to another Republican administration. I can say with confidence that no other President in recent history has done more to help our children, our immigrants, our working class and our veterans than Barack Obama. America, we've come too far in these last four years to throw in the towel on progress in change. The goal of a Romney/Thune administration will be simple: accelerate wealth to the top at the expense of everyone else. Thats what their core philosophy has been for decades. Thats what Republican Governors across the country are trying to do. We Demcorats know that this approach doesn't work. Thats why Barack Obama has given record tax cut to our hardworking middle class, not the wealthiest few."

Lujan also pointed out Obama's record investments in renewable energy through programs such as his 2009 stimulus package and other initiatives. "In these four years, what has impressed me most about the Obama administration its investments in clean, renewable energy sources. Remember the petro-dictators that governed our country from 2000 to 2008!? We cannot go back to that! In New Mexico, thanks to both federal and local efforts, we have found new ways to harness wind and solar power to meet the needs of our ever-growing population. We have been leading the way in finding new and sustainable energy sources. Because of our work and research in this sector, New Mexicans are turning profits and beating the national recession. Thats a model that works. On this issue, Barack Obama is right and Mitt Romney is wrong!

Because of the bold steps President Obama took in his stimulus programs, 20,000 people in my district and over 52,000 people in the state of New Mexico have gone back to work; thousands more have kept their jobs. Thats the change that we can believe in. This is why Barack Obama is right and Mitt Romney is wrong! While my state is going strong on the way to recovery, with an unemployment rate of 5.5%, there is much work left to be done. America needs Barack Obama and Mike Beebe to continue this upward trend of job creation and innovation!"

Other than the keeping Obama in the White House, Democrats' primary goal is to maintain their control of of the Senate; they currently hold just a 51-49 majority. As such, the DNC also featured many Democratic Senate candidate from across the country. Former Sen. Russ Freingold, Rep. Dina Titus and Sen. Jon Tester, who are all running for Senate in swing states, emphasized the importance of keeping the Upper House.

Feingold, a hero to the progressives, bashed the Republicans who control his state. "The Republicans wanted Wisconsin to be their test case for what they plan to do if they win this year. Under their control, Wisconsin has gone backward to the nineteenth century. Our out-of-control Legislature and our puppet Governor have taken away rights from our middle class in the name of pushing a radical agenda. This cannot be the case for the country. If anyone out there in on the fence and doesn't know how they'll vote next year, do yourself a favor and look at the Wisconsin Republicans. If I am elected to the Senate again, I will work to do whatever I can to curtail the effects of the Citizens United case. Giving corporations the same rights as people helped enable many Republicans across our country to get elected in 2010 and push their extreme agendas."

"In Nevada, we're still suffering from the Bush Administration," Titus claimed. "As a result of the reckless Republican financial policies and lack of oversight, the crash in the housing market has caused our unemployment rate to skyrocket and the values of our homes to decline. While President Obama and Leader Reid have promoted stimulus policies which gotten our local employers to begin hiring again, we cannot afford to hand power back over to Republicans."

Finally, in his speech, Senator Tester tried to appeal to centrists . "As a pro-gun westerner, I might not agree with my party on everything, but I know that we Democrats are the party of the common man. I believe that President Obama has seen how we do business in Montana and knows the needs of our people. Working together, our Democratic Governor, Brian Schwietzer and our Republican legislature, have posted the greatest surpluses in our states history. In Montana, we know that working together is more important than trying to tear each other down. Thats how I try to work in the Senate and the President has tried to be similarly bipartisan in his outreach to Congressional Republicans. Still, while bipartisanship is necessary, there are some critical areas, such as taxes and spending, where we disagree, that is why Democrats must retain the Senate."

President Obama is scheduled to speak tomorrow.

[Miles]

30 AUGUST 2012

OBAMA AT DNC: "LOOK HOW FAR WE'VE COME"

"Thank you Democrats. Thank you Charlotte.

I stand here in front of America to call for a renewed effort for change and progress. To build upon the foundation of what we have already achieved a a country. Tonight, our nation faces a critical juncture. We all know that our country faces many challenges.

Still, as a people, we have always been able to outlast our travails and survive our hardships. I believe that while we have always taken pride in our robust, independent spirit, that government can serve as a force of real and permanent good. Just look at our history. We believe, in the words of our first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln, that through government, we should do together what we cannot do as well for ourselves.  And so we’ve built a strong military to keep us secure, and public schools and universities to educate our citizens.  We’ve laid down railroads spanning thousands of miles and highways to facilitate travel and commerce. We’ve supported the work of scientists and researchers whose discoveries have saved lives, unleashed repeated technological revolutions, and led to countless new jobs and entire industries.  Each of us has benefitted from these investments, and we are a more prosperous country as a result.

Part of this American belief that we are all connected also expresses itself in a conviction that each one of us deserves some basic measure of security.  We recognize that no matter how responsibly we live our lives, hard times or bad luck, a crippling illness or a layoff, may strike any one of us. So, we've  constructed programs like Medicare and Social Security, which guarantee us health care and a measure of basic income after a lifetime of hard work; unemployment insurance, which protects us against unexpected job loss; and Medicaid, which provides care for millions of seniors in nursing homes, poor children, and those with disabilities.  We are a better country because of these commitments.  Throughout my administration, I've strived to build on these achievements.

....Because of the legislation I enacted with Congress in the first part of my term, a severe recession was curtailed.  Millions of Americans are on track to get affordable, quality healthcare. The mastermind of 9/11 Osama bin Laden, will no longer be terrorizing our world. Our gay men and women in uniform can openly and honestly serve in our armed forces....

...Now, I compel you, America, to look at the other side. The Republican plan for the future is a vision that says even though America can’t afford to invest in education or clean energy; even though we can’t afford to care for seniors and poor children, we can somehow afford more than $1 trillion in new tax breaks for the wealthy.  Think about it.  In the last decade, the average income of the bottom 90% of all working Americans actually declined.  The top 1% saw their income rise by an average of more than a quarter of a million dollars each.  And that’s who needs to pay less taxes?  They want to give people like me a two hundred thousand dollar tax cut that’s paid for by asking thirty three seniors to each pay six thousand dollars more in health costs?   That’s not right, and it’s not going to happen as long as I’m President.

The fact is, their vision is less about reducing the deficit than it is about changing the basic social compact in America.  As Ronald Reagan’s own budget director said, there’s nothing “serious” or “courageous” about this plan.  There’s nothing serious about a plan that claims to reduce the deficit by spending a trillion dollars on tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.  There’s nothing courageous about asking for sacrifice from those who can least afford it and don’t have any clout on Capitol Hill.  And this is not a vision of the America I know...

...America, as my friend Governor Bev Perdue said of this moment in history, this is our chance! We cannot and we will not go back to the horrendous policies that in the past have left our nation financially crippled and stranded on the global chance. This is our time, our chance to continue towards progress and recovery!

Thank you, Democrats! Thank you North Carolina! Thank you Americans!"



And of course, Obama gets and obligatory post-convention poll boost:



 

[Miles]

GOP TRIES TO MAKE SELL IN TAMPA...RICK SCOTT? RICK, WHO?

As the Democrats wrapped up their Charlotte convention, media cameras now travel down to Tampa, where the Republicans will try to sell their message to millions of viewers. "This will certainly give American voters a good chance to hear from the top leaders and candidates within our party so that they can make a better informed choice this fall" said RNC Chair Reince Priebus. He added "During the course of this convention, we will highlight the real and substantive differences that make Republicans the party better suited to lead. We have a plethora of new candidates and officeholders who were elected in 2010. I have not doubt that their stories will inspire voters to come to the Republican side this fall."

However, one face that was noticeably absent convention events was Florida's Republican Governor, Rick Scott. This stood in stark contrast to Governor Bev Perdue, who played a very central role in organizing and overseeing the Democratic Convection in her state. Many pundits conjectured that top Republicans were trying to marginalize the vastly unpopular Scott. Pollster Tom Jensen agrees with that assessment "He's the least popular Governor in the country. His approvals are under 30%. Even with Republicans, he breaks no better than even in our polls. 'Definitely not someone you'd want to advertise. It makes sense that the Republican leadership would be sidelining him. " Scott's top legislative adviser offered another reason though. "Many pieces of legislation that are key to the Governor's pro-growth agenda are currently up for consideration in the Legislature. His main goal is to ensure his legislation sails smoothly through the Legislature. We regret that the Governor's busy schedule will preclude him from spending much time at the convention."

The keynote speaker was freshman Congressman Chip Cravaack of Minnesota. His speech was  part of an effort by Republicans to showcase the members of their new House freshman class.

In his speech, Cravaack gave an account of his own uphill election battle. "Dozens of Republicans like me earned the trust of our constituents in 2010 and we were sent to do our people's work in Congress. I think I speak for most of my colleagues when I say that I know what it feels like to be counted out. When I announced my candidacy against an influential, seemingly infallible-term incumbent, no one thought I could win. On the campaign trail, they'd tell me "Chip, you know, Oberstar is unbeatable. He even beat a former Senator who ran against him! This is a blue district!" But thanks to the grassroots support from a powerful, energized movement of ordinary people who wanted a voice in Washington, I was elected, along with many promising new conservative leaders.
At the local level, Republicans were also swept into power in Minnesota as they took both houses of our Legislature. Thanks to an effort headed by another one of our great Congressman, Michelle Bachmann and a passionate outpouring of concerned voters, we turned Minnesota red.  My friends, this is a good time to be a Republican!
But, of course, this isn't about the past or this isn't about any one state. We know that America must elect Mitt Romeny and John Thune this November. They will put an end to one of the most reckless, irresponsible administrations that we've seen in a generation! Mitt's experience as a Governor combined with John's years of legislating at the local and national levels will be exactly what our country needs at this vital chapter in our history!"

He also criticized the ramifications of Obama's policies on his district and on the country, specifically regarding agricultural and foreign policy matters. "The Cap-and-Trade agenda being championed by Democrats will strangle the farmers, dairy workers and miners in my district. The effects of this legislation are driving up the operation costs on the workers and farmers of my district and throughout the country. The taxes that are imposed on our workers must be lifted at once if we are to be competitive market force. Mitt Romney will understands that these policies are hurting America's businesses. He knows that dependence on the federal government is not healthy for anyone! Again, I think I speak for many of us when I say that this administration is leaving rural America behind! Senator Thune is from a rural state himself and he will bring a pro-agriculture perspective to a new Republican administration.
As a pilot in the navy, I helped defend my country.
The way that Obama weakens our global standing and apologizes to our enemies is disgraceful. We need a new, more efficient foreign policy that recognizes American exceptionalism, as well as strong commitment to men and women like me who serve. Mitt Romney understands this and he will not be conceding anything to other countries."

Three of the most well-received speakers where Rep. Kristi Noem, Rep. Tim Scott and Congressional candidate Ilario Pantano.

"As a South Dakotan, I was thrilled when my Senator, John Thune, was chosen to run for Vice President" Noem said. "I've worked with him, I've campaigned with him and I can tell you, he's ready to lead.What a great choice Governor Romney made! A Romney-Thune Administration will value the priorities of our working heartland citizens over the whims of the union-heads or the city machines. As I battle in Congress for my constituent, it will be great to have a President that actually supports me!
What Republicans have done in South Dakota will be am example for the entire country. By lowering taxes and crafting legislation to foster the individualistic spirit if our people, our state has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the county and our finances are going steady. Thats conservative leadership that makes a difference!"

"Now, contrary to what many liberals think, just because I'm of a certain race or look a certain way doesn't mean you can just put me in an ideological box" Scott maintained.  "I was part of a wave of true conservative candidates who were elected in the great state of South Carolina in 2010; as a result, 4 of the 6 members of the South Carolina House delegation are fresh, new Constitutionalists. During our time in Congress, our delegation has helped bring conservative, tea party values to Congress. We called for steep spending cuts and were a driving force in the effort to repeal Obamacare."

Pantano, who is running in a rematch against North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntrye, seemed to channel Sen. Marco Rubio. "Now, my father came here from Italy. As he started out here, here he of course didn't have much. But, the values that where instilled in him by his family, persistence, self-motivation and independence, are the same parameters that I live by. On a side note, I must admit that, as an Italian-American American, I'm embarrassed that the first Speaker of the House of Italian heritage was Nancy Pelosi! With your help, we will make sure that Pelosi does not get her gavel back and we will put an end to Harry Reid's disastrous tenure as Senate Majority Leader!
In 2010, I nearly toppled an 8-term incumbent. Before last year, Congressman Mike McIntyre was rarely elected with anything less than 70%. I came within 7 points of defeating him. This time, I know that I will be successful, along with several other outstanding conservatives who are in close races. With a Romney-Thune ticket, our campaigns will only be strengthened!"

Romney will speak tomorrow.