2011 and Beyond...

[Miles]

^^^ Thanks!

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ROMNEY: WE'RE "AT THE CUSP OF A STRONGER COUNTRY"

"Thank you Republicans! Thank you Florida! Thank you America!

My friends, today we stand here with two clear routes ahead of us. I don't have to tell any of you that, if we continue along our current road, our country will continue to grow weaker; it will continue to be subjected the mercy of a liberal philosophy that brought so many other countries to their knees. I promise to make bold, fresh changes if I am elected President. More than anything, our county needs a leader in the White House; a leader who wakes up every single day fighting for jobs.

...I know that even though America the most wealth and influence in the world, that is not where its greatness originates. America's greatness can be derived from our system of self-rule. A system that accounts for the free spirit of our people and demands that our government be accountable to the American people. Americans, every four years, you decide who will steer the ship of state as Commander-in-Chief. Though we all come from different backgrounds, we all believe in America. Tonight, I'm asking you believe in a new course for our country.

While we all share a common love for our country, I'd venture to say that we all share a common concern for our country. America is in peril; our people and institutions are being tested like never before.

In 2008, we elected someone with a clean slate, we wished him well, and hoped for the best. This time, we have more than empty slogans or rhetorical platitudes to judge Barack Obama by. He has failed America. When he took over, we were facing a recession. Since then, he has prolonged our nation's suffering and only exacerbated the economy's fall. The numbers speak for themselves: unemployment stands at 8.0% and roughly 13 million Americans don't have a job. Our families are being smothered by high food and gas prices. Our debt has climbed astronomically. This November, I'm counting on you, Americans, through our system on democracy to chart a new course.

...Let me be clear: A Romney Administration will stand up for the needs of our everyday, average Americans who work hard and play by rules. Because of the plans that I am proposing, under a my administration, you won't wonder whether your children will have a better life than you did; you'll know. This confidence for a better tomorrow is what binds us together as a people. I will work to ensure that every one in this great county will have a better days ahead.

To address our massive debt, I will cap federal spending at 20 percent or less of the GDP and finally, finally balance the budget. My generation will pass the torch to the next generation, not a bill. It is simply the right thing to do for our children.

I will insist that Washington learns to respect the Constitution. We will return responsibility and authority to the states for dozens of government programs -- and that begins with a complete repeal of Obamacare. From my first day in office, my No. 1 job will be to see that America once again is No. 1 in job creation. We must send more conservative, pragmatic values to Wasgington.

....America, we are on the cusp on a new day, a better tomorrow. I'm asking you to believe in it. With your vote, you will send a clear message to Washington and the world this fall!Thank you!


Romney's post-convention poll bounce:

A few other notes:

I think I'll skip the Presidential debates for this TL...too much work and time! I'll do 1 more round of 538 predictions for President/Senate/House and then I'll start rolling out 2012 results!

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DEMS HAVE 96% CHANCE OF RETAINING SENATE

Nate Silver/538.com-

"With President Obama in a close contest with Governor Romney, one assurance that Democrats will have going into election day is that they will likely keep the Senate. In fact, our models forecast a 96% that the Senate will stay in Democratic hands. Why is this the case? Well, Democrats have improved their standing in several pivotal races.

Essentially, the President's party is likely to pickup a trio of seats in the Northeast. In Connecticut, a seat which should probably have never been in GOP hands anyway, Linda McMahon remains an underdog to Rep. Jim Himes. Himes, despite running a generally poor campaign, is a 61.8% favorite to win.
In Massachusetts, Vicki Kennedy has built leads on Sen. Scott Brown in most recent polls; still, Mr. Brown is not one to be underestimated. Even so, Ms. Kennedy has keeps a 55% chance of winning.
Finally, in what could be the closest contest in the nation, former Governor Jon Corzine takes a slim lead over interim Senator Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey. While NJ is a blue state and will probably go for Obama by double-digits, LoBiondo, while in the House, consistently won a Democratic district by quite comfortable margins. We give Corzine only a 50.2% chance of winning to LoBiondo's 49.8%.

The other seat likely to flip from Republicans is that of Nevada. Democrat Dina Titus is a strong favorite to defeat tea party Republican Sharron Angle, a deeply flawed and highly controversial candidate. While Angle initially looked competitive, she has made a series of gaffes since she ousted Sen. John Ensign in the primary. Titus has a 89% chance of victory compared to Angle's 11%.

Other states where Democrats have improved include ND, OH and MO. Senator Kent Conrad, who has faced only one close race in his career, has pulled away from Governor Jack Dalrymple. Senator Sherrod Brown has moved past State AG Mary Taylor to become a slim favorite, at 58%. Finally, Senator Claire McCaskill has expanded her lead on challenger Sarah Steelman; she's up from a 57% chance of victory to 68%.

Republicans have had a lock on the open Nebraska seat ever since popular Governor Dave Heineman declared his candidacy.

In the closely-watched Utah race, we regard Senator Hatch as a slight favorite, with a 57% chance of victory to challenger Jason Chaffetz's 43%. Regardless of the outcome here, this Utah seat will nonetheless remain in the Republican caucus.

In conclusion, our forecast projects that, when all the electoral dust settles, Democrats will control 54 Senate seats to 46 for Republicans. If Republicans have a good night, they could control as many as 49 seats; conversely Democrats could end up controlling as many as 56 seats. While this is certainly good news for the President and Majority Leader Reid, the House is quite a different story...

Projected Senate Election Results:

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GOP 85% LIKELY TO KEEP HOUSE

Our final House forecast, we can conjecture that the Republicans will hold onto the House by a 15-seat margin. Why are Democrats picking up so many seats? Well, after the 2010 elections, Republican nearly "maxed out" their number of winnable seats. After the census, many new seats, such as those in Texas, South Carolina, and Florida, went to the Republicans. Thus, the GOP was able to gain seats simply from redistricting. However, Democrats are still projected to defeat a number of GOP incumbents; this will neutralize and even reverse some of the gains Republicans made from redistricting (such as races in West Virginia and Montana).

(I'm not going to go through every single race; I'll cover the important races when I post the results!)

Democratic Gains [20] : (name of projected winner)
CA-03 (Bera) , WY-AL (Freudenthal), MT-AL (Schweitzer), CO-04 (Markey), MN-08 (Richard), WI-07 (Lassa), AR-02 (Halter), LA-05 (Jackson), FL-22(Frankel), FL-25(Garcia), WV-01 (Oliverio), WV-02 (Goodwin), NC-02 (Marshall), NJ-02 (Kiurkowski), NH-02(Kuster), IL-17(Hare), IL-08(Bean), IL-10 (Shayman), IL-14 (Foster), PA-07(Sestak)

Republican Gains [3]:
IA-03(Latham), IN-02 (Walorski), GA-02 (Keown)

OVERALL SEAT COUNT:
REPUBLICANS: 225
DEMOCRATS: 210

-For simplicity's sake, no newly created/eliminated seats are listed here (ex. TX-36, LA-07)

-Due to continuing lawsuits, the North Carolina Congressional districts will not change. Rather, a new court-drawn map will be in place for the 2014 cycle.

[Miles]

I updated my last House 538 post so that the districts have projected winners...'should give some hints about the final result!

[Miles]

CONTEST FOR PRESIDENT VERY CLOSE

"As we round out this election, our final forecast is about as close as it could be. The President clings to a bare 270 electoral votes, as he holds only a 2-point advantage over Governor Romney; quite a far cry from his 192-point blowout in 2008. Still, with the electoral math winding up this close, any swing state could tilt the balance towards either Obama or Romney. Based on our math, Obama's 'ceiling' would be around 339 electoral votes to Romney's 199; this would be similar to his 2008 scenario. Likewise, Romney's high-water mark would be 328 votes to Obama's 210. Both of these scenarios are unlikely, as they would require one candidate to sweep nearly every swing state.

Three states that have moved into play most recently are IA, MO and AR. While the Presidential candidates have limited appeal in these states, the Vice-Presidential candidates have campaigned there frequently. Obama has dispatched Mike Beebe to campaign in AR and MO, while Senator Thune has done well in making IA competitive. Our forecast shows Romney sweeping these states. His chances are 51.3% in IA, 53.2% in MO and 54.7% in AR. While Arkansans love Mike Beebe, Obama's place on the ticket is still keeping some Arkansans from voting for one of their own.

Still, if Mike Beebe doesn't help Obama chance's of carrying AR, he has helped Obama reach out to Independent voters; since choosing Beebe, Obama has gained over 10 points with them, essentially breaking even with Romney. Senator Thune has likewise helped shore-up conservative enthusiasm for Romney. Our popular vote projection has Obama winning by a close 50.3% to 48.8%.

Obama has also made modest progress in Nevada where he's up to a 53.1% chance of winning. During these last weeks, his campaign has tried, with some success, to tie Governor Romney to his party's Senate candidate, Sharron Angle, who most Nevada voters see as extreme or unelectable. Still, Romney's prowress in states such as PA, OH and FL, all which voted Democratic last cycle, should worry Obama.

All in all, Tuesday shouldn't be a boring election night!"

CHANCE OF WINNING:
OBAMA: 52.1% (270 EV)
ROMNEY: 47.9% (268 EV)

Projections for Competitive States:


Home/ Favorite Son States

[Miles]

I'm glad everyone seems to be enthusiastic!

[Miles]

ELECTION NIGHT 2012

Some election night music!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwoRVxmmH0o

Rachel: Good evening America! Tonight is a night that will be apex of the intense 2012 campaign! I'm back with my colleague Chris Matthews in MSNBC election headquarters as we try to make sense of what will no doubt be a critical night in American history.

Chris: Thats right, Rachel. Tonight will be a very, very important night. Governor Romney has pulled within striking distance of the President. We'll have a roller-coaster of a Presidental race, maybe even as close as the 2000 election, plus a good number of Senate and House seats up for grabs.

Rachel: And well even have a good number of closely-watched Governor's and local elections to talk about as well. Tonight could fundamentally transform the direction of American politics for the next few years, even the next few decades; as policies and choices of tonight's winner, like Supreme Court nominees and fiscal polices, will have ramifications that will last well beyond the next few election cycles.

Chris: And Rachel, at 7:00 Eastern Time, it looks like we have our first batch of results in! These are from the state of Vermont. Vermont has become a Democratic stronghold and our numbers confirm this. In the Presidential race, Obama will easily be winning Vermont; its such a liberal state that not even a moderate Republican like Romney could crack 35% there anymore.

Rachel: And on top of Obama's 35-point win, we have 2 other Democratic winners. In the Governor's race, Peter Shumlin, who is best known for his efforts for a single-payer healthcare system, will be comfortably reelected over former Auditor Tom Salmon. With Shumlin's reelection, Vermont will have a single-payer system as early as next year.  
On the Senate side, there wasn't much action. Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, among the Senate's strongest progressive voices, has no major party opposition and will get about 92%.

Rachel: We also have most of the results from the Bluegrass State reporting. While Republicans have done poorly there at the state level recently, their Presidential candidates have done well. Tonight is no exception; it gives 8 electoral votes to Governor Romney. Romney will be carrying the state by about 13 points. These results from Kentucky are very similar to the last 2008 election, where Obama lost there by 16 to Senator McCain.

Chris: If Democrats want to build up there nationwide strategy, they have to stop permanently conceding these states like Kentucky. The Clintons have always done well there, Obama has done next to nothing there. I mean even in the local off-year election last year, Governor Beshear and the Democrats stomped the Republicans.

Rachel: But, lets not forget, while Kentucky may be a Democratic state, its still a conservative state. I think Obama's choice of Governor Beebe was an attempt to reach out to these centrist or conservative-minded Democrats who see Obama as too liberal. While Beebe may help Obama in other swing states, his dividends in Kentucky are fairly meager, as Obama only did slightly better there this year than in 2008.  Plus, a lot of voters in Appalachia see Obama as anti-coal and therefore anti-jobs.

Chris: Thats right. In these Appalachian states, coal is king. Still, I think with the right candidate, Kentucky could go back to the Democrats.

Maddow: Moving just north, we have our first look at Indiana. Don't be fooled by Romney's wide 17-point lead. Only 42% of all ballots are counted; a good portion of the outstanding ballots will be coming from Democratic-leaning areas. Therefore, as of now, our official wording for the Presidential race here is that is "too early to call."

Chris: It looks like two other races from Indiana are all but over though. We do have most Senate and Governor's results out. Senator Dick Lugar, one of the great elder statesmen of Indiana, who narrowly pushed back a tea party challenge in the primary will cruise to another term in the Sanate. He will be winning by nearly 40 points over Democrat Jill Thompson. Also, the AP is also in the Governor's race. Congressman Mike Pence will defeat former Congressman Brad Ellsworth by about 8 points.

Rachel: Could Indiana set the tone for other vital industrial Midwest States? As we take a quick break, I would encourage our viewers to stay tuned. We will have full results from Indiana and many, many more races very soon!

[Miles]

One nitpick - there is absolutely no way Ellsworth would beat Pence in Clay or Greene County. I know because that's where I live! Ellsworth would probably carry it if he won by a decent margin, but not losing by 8 points.

I had to give you something to call me out on

[Miles]

IN TIGHTENS, GA CALLED, CLOSE HOUSE RACES

Rachel: Welcome back to our live election night coverage here on MSNBC. As my friend Chris and I try to sift through the returns we have so far, several important races for the House have come in since our break.

Chris: Thats right, Rachel. We have one more closely-watched race from Indiana. Congressman Joe Donnelly is in a real barn-burner of a rematch a against Jackie Walorski. Republicans were able to nab 2 Democratic seats in 2010 and take control of its House delegation, but they fell short against Donnelly up in the South Bend area. Looks like tonight the result will be just as close.
Also, as results from Georgia start to trickle in we have another House rematch, we'll actually have quite a few of these rematches because so many of the 2010 races were very close. Congressman Sanfors Bishop is clinging to a .7% lead over State Legislator Mike Keown. In the newly created Georgia 14th, former Athens mayor Heidi Davison is also deadlocked with State Senator Johnny Grant. Davison was a very popular mayor, but Grant has also been solidly reelected many times to the State Senate.
With 57% reporting in Indiana and 48% of Georgia in, we're not going to call any of these.



Rachel: And all three of those House races were impacted by the redistricting process. Donnelly's old district went for Obama by about 9 points; his new district would be very close to even. Clearly, the Republicans who control Indiana tried to weaken him and favor Walorksi. Donnelly has a base in South Bend which may ultimately deliver for him. Still, the district moved quite bit towards the Republicans.
In George, the 2nd district became only slightly more Republican. The real drama in Georgia was the new 14th. Republicans thought that if they created a new, swing district in eastern-central Georgia, they could weaken Congressman John Barrow, a Democrat in the neighboring 12th. So far, its looks like Barrow is still up double-digits, in fact, we didn't even feature his district as a race-to-watch.

Chris: Fascinating, fascinating stuff, this redistricting. Its just shows you how many forces at working driving the numbers in these House races. While we can't call either of those Congressional districts, we can call Georgia. With 52% of the Presidential ballots counted, the AP is calling Georgia for Romney. They project that its 16 votes will end up in the Republican column by about 8 points; overall, the President will be doing a little worse this year than he did in 2008.

Rachel: Looking at what the numbers are implying, it seems that Obama's turnout in urban Atlanta was a few ticks under his 2008 performance. That could be a bad sign for Obama as well in for North Carolina, were he won in 2008 thanks to sky-high black turnout. The demographics pretty much fell into place. Obama beat Romney by almost 3-to-1 in Atlanta, while Romney trounced Obama in the northern suburbs and exurbs by about 40-50 points.
Georgia is gradually swinging towards the Democrats, but it will take a few election cycles until it is electoral votes are truly up for grabs.

Chris: We have more returns from Indiana. While Obama has chipped Romney's lead down to 8, 'looks like Romney is holding pretty steady. With 60% reporting, its seems unlikely that Obama pulls this out again.

Rachel: IF we'll excuse us, we must take another break. So far, we have Romney leading Obama in the Electoral College 24-3, when all of Indiana s counted, that would put Romney up 35-3. Will the President be elected, or will America give the levers of power back to the Republicans? Stick around to find out!

[Miles]

ROMNEY SOLIDIFIES IN; VA, SC, FL REPORT

Chris: Welcome back to our coverage in MSNBC. In what has been our first closely contest Presidential state, Indiana will be going to the Republicans. While Obama's 2008 win here was considered somewhat of a fluke by most Republicans operatives and strategists, the GOP nonetheless made sure that this state would not fall to Democrats once again. With 93% of votes counted, we can project that Indiana will fall to Romney by a margin of 52-47. While this margin isn't as bad as Bush's two landslides here, it nonetheless is a blow to Team Obama. This certainly is not good for Obama, who polls show is struggling in this region.

Rachel: Here's more worrisome news for Democrats. The first House pickup of the evening will not be switching from Republican to Democratic hands, rather a Republican will be ousting a Democrat. In that close IN-02 race, the AP projects that Congressman Donnelly will not be able to overcome Walorski's lead. For him to win, there would need to be a catastrophic Republican collapse in St. Joseph and Starke counties. While Donnelly is underperforming in his new Republican counties,  Walorski is controlling the bleeding in the Democratic counties.

Chris: Very ironic that this seat would be one of the first to flip Republican; Donnelly was a bright spot for Democrats in 2010 in what was otherwise a horrendous night. We do have some good news from Virginia for Obama though. Obama's effort her was very strong and it looks to be paying off tonight. 54% of VA precincts are reporting and, based on where those precincts are coming from, Obama looks like he will ultimately retain the state's 13 electoral votes. The AP projects that when all the votes are counted, Obama will win by 51-47 in Virginia.
However, what is still very close is the colossal Senate race between former Governor Kaine and former Senator Allen. Kaine, of course, has always been a strong ally of the President, but even with 54% of votes in, Kaine looks to be underperforming. He only leads by less than 1 point half of a point.

Rachel: As for Virginia's Congressional seats, there's not much to see. All incumbents are slated to win, resulting in a continuing delegation of 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.  This Virginia win gives the President a much-needed boost in the Electoral College; he now trails 35-16.

Chris: Actually, make that 44-16. South Carolina is reporting and we can put it in the GOP column. Romney wins its 9 votes by 12 points. Of course, Obama was strong in Charleston, Columbia and rural black areas, but he was blown out in the heavily conservative northern and eastern counties.

Rachel: We also have our first numbers from Florida rolling in. This race has the potential to keep us awake all night! With 42% of precincts in, Obama is up by just over a point. Now, I would caution anyone not to look too far into that number. Most of the panhandle counties have yet to report anything; of course these counties are very heavily Republican, so Romney will certainly get a boost there. The question is if Obama can cobble enough votes together in southern Florida to offset the panhandle counties.

Chris: Going into another break, lets recap what we have. At 8:00, polls in many more states just closed. We'll have those results when we return.

ROMNEY: 44
OBAMA: 16

[Miles]

This is an amazing timeline. When can we expect another update?

I'll try to aim for a few updates per day.

[Miles]

Yeah, I'm not very familiar with Virginia politics

[Miles]

CRIST, WEST, GRAYSON ELECTED IN FL

Rachel: Going back to key state of Florida, we have a few other important non-Presidential races to call . Democrat Charlie Crist, whose making his third run for the US Senate, is finding that the third time really is a charm. Despite a very close race for President here, the former Governor will actually be defeating his former ally, Republican George LeMieux, fairly comfortably, by Florida standards. Floridians, will be sending Crist to the Senate by about 5 percentage points.

Chris: Crist didn't have much room to win back in 2010. He was too liberal for Republicans, but he had to compete for Democratic votes as well. He was in a tough spot running as an Independent. Now, a true surprise tonight is that Congressman Allen West will be reelected. West's district stayed more or less the same after the Census. It now looks like he'lll be turning back a strong challenge from West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel. 'Another very harsh blow for Democrats as they try to retake the House. Still, West was a tea party favorite and he was able to raise a ton on money; that's probably what pushed him over the top tonight.  


Rachel: Well, don't forget Florida's 22nd is a rather competitive district, so West will probably still be vulnerable in future cycles. Still, an impressive performance by him tonight. Democrats also have a pickup in the 8th district. Alan Grayson, who may be the anti-Allen West, will be heading back to Congress. He defeated his 2008 opponent, Ric Keller. Granted, this district was made into a true Democratic-leaning seat during the redistricting process as its now virtually contained within Orlando, Grayson was also a great fundraiser and he had a motivated liberal base supporting him. So Florida, though a fairly centrist state, will be electing a pair of ideological opposites in Congressman West and Grayson!

(Sorry guys, 'busy day. This was all I could get to. I'll work on more stuff tonight!)

[Miles]

DE ROLLS IN, NJ STICKS WITH LOBIONDO, DEMS TAKE BACK MA

Chris: Rachel, it looks like our next batch of numbers will be from Delaware. Democrats have always done very well there and tonight, everything played out as expected. Democrats have swept all races at the top of Delaware ballot. Obama starts out strong with a 22-point blowout. His current VP, Joe Biden, a favorite son of Delaware, is slated to take over the State Department if Obama is reelected. Speaking of Joe Biden, his son, Beau, the current AG there, will be unanimously elected the state's next Governor, no one else even filed to challenge him! Beau is a very promising face in Democratic politics and I'm sure we'll be hearing more about him down the line.

Rachel: And don't forget, Delaware also had a Senate race. Governor Jack Markell, a very popular figure as well, will be defeating one of the most well-known candidates in the county, the infamous Christine O'Donnell, by nearly 50 points! Thats seat is being vacated by Senator Tom Carper. O'Donnell of course gave us much...interesting, odd and bizarre material to discuss on our shows! I wonder if she'll run again! In any case, Delaware's electoral votes are solidly with Obama; unfortunately for him, its only worth 3!

Chris: Next, we move just north to New Jersey. The real story here was the Special Senate election. Last year, Senator Frank Lautenberg had to resign due to his poor health; Governor Christie appointed Congressman Frank LoBiondo to that seat. Even though LoBiondo had held a Democratic-leaning seat for years, he was a prime target of the DSCC. Even so, it looks like LoBiondo will be keeping his Senate seat. He even got an outright majority. 'Pretty impressive.

Rachel: Yes, LoBiondo was one of the better campaigners of this cycle. It is worth noting though, that his opponent, former Governor Jon Corzine was a terrible candidate; his campaign was rather languid and he failed to really excite liberals. The good news for Democrats, though, is that they will get another crack at trying to unseat LoBiondo in 2014. They've learned tonight that they'd be better off running a fresh face against him than trying to bring back an old loser. We'll see who the DSCC comes up with.
It is also worth noting that to keep his seat, LoBiondo ran as one of the most liberal Republicans in the county. He voted with Democrats on many fiscal matters and he has taken stance contrary to his party's leadership on most environmental and social issues. Could he be prone to a tea party challenge in 2014? Very possible.

Chris: Very true. But there is something to be said for a Republican like LoBiondo winning this comfortably in a blue state. At the Presidential level, Obama carried the state by about 13 points, which was about what most pollsters had projected. In the other Senate seat, Senator Bob Menendez, who has always seemed to underperform, will be fending of Congressman John Runyan by about 5 points.

Rachel: We now have results from 2 southern states. A majority of precincts  from the states of Oklahoma and Alabama are in. Obama was never expected to even come close to winning either of these. Though his VP, Mike Beebe, did prove to have some appeal to rural white voters in these states; as Obama's margins are slightly better this time around than in 2008. Still, the 16 electoral votes are head to Romney's column.

Chris: We actually have one interesting race out of Oklahoma, even though Romney won in a landslide. In the 4th district, Congressman Tom Cole faced the closest contest of his career. Former Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins pulled within 6 points of the Congressman. Askins got a lot of help from former Governor Brad Henry, who still is very popular, but fell short. Still, for her to come this far in a ruby red district that gave Romney 65% of the vote is impressive. A rematch could very well be in the works for 2014.

Rachel: We can also call those 2 outstanding Georgia races for Democrats. This comes as much needed boost to House Democrats after they've lost Joe Donnelly and it looks like they'll fall short in their effort to take Senator LoBiondo's old House seat. Mayor Davison in the 14th and Congressman Bishop in the 2nd will be elected in Georgia.

Chris: Now here's a race we've all been waiting for: the Massachusetts Senate contest. Scott Brown shocked the county by winning here in 2010 and Democrats have ever since been hell-bent on getting back Teddy Kennedy's seat. This was one of the most expensive races in the county; both the DSCC and the RSCC poured millions into this race. Well, Vicki Kennedy has unseated Senator Brown. Even though Senator Brown ran a great effort here, Obama was able to carry Kennedy over the finish line. Kennedy, in fact, won by a rather cushy 7 points. I still think we'll be hearing more from Mr. Brown though, he could be good position to run for Governor in 2014 (hint, hint!!). At the beginning of the campaign, some people were even trying to draft you into this race, Rachel!

Rachel: Thats right! I remember that! I'm quite happy with my job right here! I do think we'll be seeing more of Scott Brown though. He could even run for President, or he would be a promising VP choice. But for now, the Kennedy legacy is back in the Bay State. President Obama has carried this state as well. However, since this was Mitt Romney's home state, Obama has done worse her than in 2008, as he has carried Massachusetts' 11 electoral votes with less than 60% of the vote, as some ordinarily Democratic voters here crossed their ballots for their former Governor; Romney still had somewhat of a base left in the eastern portion of the state.

Chris: And with that, we'll take a quick break!

[Miles]

I'll aim for an update Monday afternoon/evening.

[Miles]

Rachel: We just now received our first results from the quintessential battleground state of Ohio. While these results will be exciting and nervewracking again, I would caution our viewers not to read very far into these numbers. Only 26% of the overall results are in; only 18% of the Cleveland area is in. Most of what we have comes from central Ohio. We only have about 16% of the Senate numbers in, so we'll hold off on that race.

Chris: Very pivotal, Ohio. Very pivotal. Remember, no President since Jack Kennedy has won the White House without Ohio. Our final Ohio results will be a good indicator of the nation as whole. We just got results in from one state which isn't very close though: Maryland. Obama will be winning this Democratic stronghold by about 25 points. In the Senate race, freshman Ben Cardin will be winning in a similar landslide over former Governor Bob Ehrlich. Maryland will be sending Cardin back to the Senate by about 17 points. This is a huge blow to Republicans here; Ehrlich was about as strong as Republicans come in Maryland and the best he could do was lose by double-digits.

Rachel: Yes, Cardin began his Senate career 6 years ago by defeating Maryland's then Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele. That was before his RNC days! Ever since then, I've become pretty good friends with Mr. Steele! haha. And we have one House race here as well. Former Congressman Frank Kratovil will he headed back to the Beltway as he ousts tea party Republican Andy Harris. Harris was another target of redistricting; the Democrats who control Maryland made his district considerably more liberal. With Kratovil's margin of victory, about 6 points, there's no doubt that redistricting played heavily in his favor.

Chris: We now also have results reporting from New Hampshire. Its still close, but from what I can tell, Obama has a lot of ground to make up here. With 41% reporting, he trails Governor Romney by about 4 points. Some liberals still argue that New Hampshire was the state that hurt all Gore most back in 2000; had New Hampshire voted Democratic, like all its New England neighbors did, Gore would have won. But Romney invested a ton of money and resources here, especially in the early days of the campaign. That could very well be paying off tonight.

Rachel: Thats right. Even though its located in the Northeast, New Hampshire has a conservative streak. In the state's House races, we have mixed news for both parties. Democrat Ann Kuster will be knocking off Charlie Bass in the 2nd district. This district was among the biggest heart-breakers for Democrats back in 2010, as Bass won by the skin of his teeth.  However, since then, the electorate quickly soured on Bass and Kuster was able to capitalize on Bass' unpopularity. In the first district, Republican Frank Guinta holding off a challenge from Carroll Shea-Porter, a former Congresswoman. Shea-Porter was not as great as fundraiser or campaigner as Kuster, so that district will be staying red tonight. Governor John Lynch has also been soundly defeating tea party Republican Ovide Lamontagne. Lynch had already gone for a unprecedented 4th term in 2010. But, he has remained so popular that voters have elected him for a fifth time.  



Rachel: And now we have some of the Show-Me State in. Our initial returns show Romney with a lead of 2 points. Even though Missouri stayed GOP in 2008, Democrats dispatched Mike Beebe and Bill Clinton here to make the state competitive again. They campaigned in the southern and northwestern parts of the state trying to draw more rural-minded and centrist voters to their party’s ticket. Only 42% of votes are counted so far, so this could go either way very easily.

Chris: Yep. At first it looked like Obama was going to give up Missouri, but during the last month or so there, he did a lot of campaigner there with Mike Beebe and Senator McCaskill. Speaking of Senator McCaskill, the AP is calling the race in her favor. She’s leading with 52% of the vote and there seemed to be no real indication that Republican Sarah Steelman will be getting enough votes to take the lead. Steelman is currently standing at 44%. During most of the campaign, McCaskill tried to portray Steelman as something of a fringe candidate. In the Governor’s race, Democrat Jay Nixon will also be winning with 54% of the vote to 45% his Republican opponent, Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder.

Chris: Moving one state to the northeast, we have results from the President's home state. Illinois will be giving Obama 60%. Not very surprising. Also, 4 new Democrats will be elected to Congress; this is also a result of the Democratic-led redistricting in Illinois. Democrats have won the 17th with Cheri Bustos, the 8th with Tammy Duckwork, Bill Foster makes a comeback in the 14th and Alexi Giannoulias ran in the 10th and won there. This flips the Illinois House delegation from 11-8 Republican to 12-6 Democratic. A very tough blow to Republicans. Asterisks on the map represent pickups.

Rachel: Rounding out this batch of states will be Mississippi. President Obama and his running mate Mike Beebe also campaigned in the Delta area of this state. They also had help from Governor Gene Taylor. Even so, Governor Romney will be winning the state by about 11 points.
Chris: In the Senate race, incumbent Roger Wicker will also be winning by a similar 12 points against former Congressman Travis Childers. Back years ago, Mississippi sent some Democratic giants to the Senate, like John Stennis and Jim Eastland. Now it’s almost impossible for a Democrat to win there, even one as moderate as Childers.

[Miles]

In Missouri, how can some counties not be reporting for the Presidential race but have numbers for Senate and Governor?

No reason, I just want to keep everyone guessing about the President race!

[Miles]

Chris: Our first House snapshot shows Republicans with a lead over Democrats. Still, there are 318 races left to be tallied!:

REPUBLICANS: 68
DEMOCRATS: 49

[Miles]

318.

So NH, MO, and OH have not been called yet, right?

Sorry. Math error. I was up late posting that...

NH is called for Romney.

OH, MO and FL have not been called.

[Miles]

update soon?

Sorry, I'm on a trip (as my avatar suggests).

I'll have one up soon.

[Miles]

FOR DEMS, NEWS GOOD IN WV, MIXED IN ME

Chris: Welcome back to election night here on MSNBC! Now we're going to a state that Democrats have traditionally done well in: West Virginia. The Mountain State has been one of the most reliably Democratic states throughout the twentieth century, voting for both Carter twice and Dukakis, even though they both lost. But its seems recently Democrats have let this state slip away. Is that the case tonight Rachel?

Rachel:Well, yes and no Chris. Republicans will be holding onto the state's 6 Electoral Votes, but Democrats will be winning virtually every other important race here. With almost 90% of precincts in, Romney will win the state by about 11 points.
As far as the Senate race, Senator Joe Manchin, who was an extremely popular Governor, will be cruising past Republican John Raese in a rematch. Raese was a favorite tea party candidate of Sarah Palin, but he just couldn't beat Manchin. So, Robert Byrd's old seat will stay Democratic for at least the next 6 years.
In the Governor's race, acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin will shock the nation by keeping his job. He was considered the underdog to Rep. Shelley Moore Capito for most of the race. Tomblin did run an excellent campaign and he had help on the trail from Senator Manchin and Former President Clinton, who was always popular in West Virginia.

Chris: We also have a trio of House races to report on. As you said, Democrats have made major gains here, especially in the House. West Virginia's House delegation will do a complete flip from 2-1 Republican to 3-0 Democratic. In the first district, State Senator Mike Oliverio ousts incumbent David McKinley, who won by 1400 votes in 2010. Looks like Manchin's strong coattails really put Oliverio over the top. In the 2nd district, former (interim) Senator Carte Goodwin flips Capito's open seat. Goodwin also had help from Bill Clinton. Goodwin will be defeating perennial GOP candidate Jay Wolfe. Finally, Nick Rahall, who has been representing the southern coal fields since the Carter days, goes without an opponent. Well, if Democrats are giving away West Virginia's electoral votes, at least they're keeping its Congressional delegation.

Rachel: Moving up the north, we can report that the President is in a perilous situation in Maine. While Obama is ahead the cumulative total, we can report that Romney will likely be taking at least of one of the state's split electoral votes. The swingy 2nd district will be going to the Governor. However, Obama's margin in the other 1st district will afford him 3 of Main's 4 votes.

Chris: In the Senate race, we will see Senator Olympia Snowe back in Washington. Mainers have always been very independent people, as we have seen tonight. Senator Snowe ran as an Independent to avoid a tea party primary. As it turns out the Republican in the race, Andrew Ian Dodge, dropped out during the last few weeks due to some gaffes and campaign issues. Snowe will be defeating Democrat Hannah Pingree. Even though she lost tonight, Pingree could very well make a comeback.

[Miles]

If those Maine numbers don't change, this could be a very suspenseful timeline (on par with that one between Obama and Palin)

Those were the final results in Maine; Romney took ME-02!

Is the suspense killing you yet!? lol

Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia?

b/c West Virginia is a Democratic state

Outside of Presidential elections, its as blue as Massachusetts or Maryland. The GOP bench simply sucks there.

As I said, I'm a southern Democrat with West Virginian heritage myself, so I kinda indulged myself there!

I know Mike Oliverio personally...I couldn't have him lose!

[Miles]

Sorry everyone, I've had some pressing personal business I've had to attend to in the last few days.

I promise and update tomorrow.

@Snowstalker, I'll include PA results in my next update

[Miles]

Chris: Just pouring in are our first results from a state that is very near and dear to my own heart, Pennsylvania. We'll start with the Senate race. Senator Bob Casey, one of the leading moderate Democrats in the Senate, will easily be turning back a challenge from State Senator Joe Scarnati. The Casey's were always well regarded by Democrats, Republicans and Independents in the Keystone state; tonight, their legacy lives on as Bob Casey is reelected by 14 points even though President Obama has been on shaky ground in Pennsylvania. We only have 67%of the state reporting, so these vote tallies are by no means final, but we can, again, project that Casey will be winning this. The Presidential race is another story. Our returns show both candidates locked in a close race with Obama clinging to a 2.5-point lead. We'll see of that holds up.

Rachel: And other than those two contests, only 1 House seat is projected to flip hands. Thanks to GOP control of redistricting, all Republicans will be holding on except Pat Meehan in the 7th district. Meehan will be losing to Admiral Joe Sestak, who held that seat before he ran for Senate. Sestak outperformed most Democrats there in 2010, but still narrowly lost. Now he's headed back to Congress. Overall, the House delegation from Pennsylvania stays Republican by an 11 to 7 margin.



Chris: Now here's one result that isn't surprising in the least Obama will be carrying D.C by 84 points! No electoral votes are safer for Democrats than the 3 from D.C.

Rachel: Moving to Michigan, we also have good news for team Obama. Despite Romney's roots here, we can still project 16 more votes for Obama. No doubt, the auto bailouts were most appreciated here. Now, GM and Chrysler have picked up with steady profits and the economy in Michigan has accordingly begun to significantly improve; Obama's adds there hammered away at that. In the Senate race, we can also report that Senator Debbie Stabenow will be returning to Washington; her challenger was Republican Pete Hoekstra. As for the Congressional delegation, again due to the Republican-drawn lines, the GOP will at least have a healthy 9 to 5 edge over Democrats.