2011 and Beyond...

[Miles]

Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet!

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!

[Miles]

Tip on PA: The final results, given Obama's slightly improved rural appeal, should give him at least the 2004 Kerry>2008 McCain counties, plus Greene. I may be also tempted to suggest giving Chester, Berks, and Dauphin to Romney. Romney would also likely improve rather than do worse in Delaware and Montgomery counties.

Thanks!

As I said, all the results aren't in yet!

Also, if anyone else would like to give me tips about their respective states, feel welcomed. Electoral insights from locals are appreciated!

I tried to give you my insight on Indiana, but of course, you jacked it up, giving Clay to Ellsworth. Geesh...

Well, its in his district so I though he'd do pretty well there.

But you have been helpful throughout this TL, tmthforu.

[Miles]

Rachel: Next we have results from deeply blue Connecticut. While Romney did try to contest this state more than George Bush or John McCain, Obama will still be winning here. That said, the President's margin will not be as large as his 2008 blowout. Also, the President has carried Democrat Jim Himes well over the line in the Senate race. He will be defeating Linda McMahon to flip Joe Lieberman's seat. For most of the cycle, this was considered a likely Democratic pickup, as virtually any Republican would lose here in a Presidential year. Even though McMahon ousted Lieberman in the primary, she was not able to gain any substantial momentum in the general election. Connecticut voters will also be keeping their all-Democratic Congressional delegation.

Chris: Now we have results from a state on the opposite side of the spectrum: Texas. Here we have 38 votes solidly in Governor Romney's column. Despite the growing Hispanic population here, Democrats are still struggling there. Tonight, the President will lose Texas by 12 or 13 points.
We'll also be seeing another Bush in Washington! Barbara P. Bush, the daughter of George W. Bush, will be elected in a landslide against Democrat Kinky Friedman. This was for the seat being vacated by Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Hutchison was an early supporter of Bush. In January, Bush will break the record for the youngest women sworn into Congress; she'll only be 31, the previous record, 38, is held by Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, right next door. I can surely see Barbara Bush as a rising star within the party and she could be the one to revive the Bush brand.

Rachel: That's right, Chris, we'll definitely be following Senator Bush throughout her Senate career. Through tonight's Senate races, we've seen the reemergence of two political dynasties. Vicki Kennedy brings the Kennedy legacy back to Washington with her win in Massachusetts and now Barbara Bush in Texas.
Whats amazing about Bush is that she was able to win with well over 60% of the vote! She got a significant amount of crossover support from Democrats, over 20% of Obama voters crossed their ballots for her. So, she can definitely win support from both parties and we could see here become a leading moderate within the Senate.

Chris: Moving a few states eastward, we have results from Tennessee. While the state's 11 votes will be going to Governor Romney, the real drama here was in the Senate race. If you remember, Senator Bob Corker was a top target of the tea party; accordingly, he was ousted in a crazy 4-way primary. The Republican, Congressman Zach Wamp, went on to face Democratic Congressman Bart Gordon in the general. Wamp was seen as somewhat extreme and had a number of gaffes on the campaign trail; he also had trouble consolidating the Republican vote after the primary. Gorder, by contrast, ran a well-oiled campaign operation. Gordon had former Governor Phil Bredesen, a very popular figure, do campaign ads for him and he also had help from Governor Beebe. Tonight, Gordon win by running up the margins in his very Republican-leaning district and doing well in the Delta counties as well as Middle Tennessee.  The Republicans however, will have keep their very solid 7-2 advantage in the state's House delegation.

Rachel: Still, while Democrats have won this seat, there's no doubt that they will not have Senator Gordon's vote on a number of key issues. In the campaign, he ran far to the right of most Democrats and took stances firmly against legislation such as the President's healthcare plan and most of his environmental policies. While Gordon cast Wamp as an extremist, he made it clear that he himself was no liberal.
As for the Presidential race, outside of slightly improved Democratic margins in Memphis and Nashville, this is a solid GOP win. Tennessee has been trending the Republicans way since the Clinton days; now, almost no Democratic Presidential candidate could win there now.

Chris: We have a few more Senate calls to make! This will come as both good news and bad news for both parties! In Virginia, former Governor Tim Kaine will be elected to the Senate over former Senator George Allen. Obama's strong campaign effort also gave Kaine a boost both in polls and in terms of turnout. The Virginia results aren't final, but the AP does project that Allen will not get enough votes to surpass Kaine's lead.
In Ohio, we can project that Senator Sherrod Brown will be losing his seat to AG Mary Taylor. This comes as a huge blow to liberals; Brown was a great hero to progressives. Taylor tried to portray Brown as too liberal and out of touch with Ohio. Senator Brown rode in on the 2006 wave, but many of the factors that helped him back then were working against him this time around.

Rachel: We knew that the Ohio race was going to be close. Whats interesting is that, if you look at the polls, on the local level, Ohioans dislike both parties right now; the strongly Republican Legislature is deeply unpopular, but Governor Ted Strickland only has a 40% approval rating himself. Of course, this does not bode will for the President; still, the Presidential race is too close to call in Ohio.
Who knew that BOTH Senator Browns would lose tonight! Both Scott Brown and Sherrod Brown will not be returning to Congress!
Sherrod Brown did well in the northeastern region, and around his old district, but Taylor invested heavily in southern and western portions of the state. Those regions are delivering for her tonight.

[Miles]

Chris: Now lets take another look at our updated cumulative maps:

PRESIDENT

ROMNEY- 125
OBAMA- 103

SENATE



NET CHANGE: D+2

U.S HOUSE

REPUBLICANS: 136
DEMOCRATS: 113

[Miles]

more, please!
 hopefully, this TL ends with a  slim Obama victory and more dems.

the TL won't end until 2020!

[Miles]

Rachel: Welcome back yet again to our live 2012 Election Night coverage here on MSNBC! We hope you'll stay with us as we have another hefty batch of results pouring in from states all across the country. Interestingly enough, we start in the smallest state in the Union, Rhode Island. Despite the President's slight decline in the neighboring states of Connecticut and Massachusetts, he will still be getting above 60% of the vote in Rhode Island, as it has become one of the bluest states in the county. Other than the President's 23-point win here, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse will be going back to the Senate for his sophomore term; he defeated Republican John Robatille by an even more impressive 28 points.

Chris: Now lets go to New York. The President will be winning by 20 points, not surprising. Still, he'll be falling just shy of that 60% mark. In the Senate race, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand will be falling just short of 70%. She'll be defeating Republican Karl Paladino by a whopping 41 points! Gillibrand will be another possible Presidential candidate who we'll probably hearing more from in the future. Looks like each party will be losing a House seat here due to redistricting. Governor Cuomo made a point of redistricting in as bi-partisan a way as possible, so neither party will be making gains. The House delegation will be 21 Democrats to 6 Republicans.

Rachel: With these next two calls, we have good news for Governor Romney. Kansas, as everyone was predicting, will add 6 more electoral votes to his total. The result there was very similar to that of 2008, with Romney winning by 16 points.
However, the news that Republicans should be celebrating is this: the AP has just called Ohio for Governor Romney! Even as Cleveland precincts came in, there was no indication that the President would get enough turnout to pass the Governor. Again, the AP projects that by eight-tenths of a point, Ohio will ultimately be going Republican this year. Our numbers are showing that it was the Independent voters who really hurt the President.

Chris: That's a very harsh blow to the President. With Pennsylvania and Florida still up in the air, the President can't be feeling very good right now. In New Mexico, the story is different. New Mexicans will be giving 5 electoral votes to the President again. In the Senate race, Congressman Ben Ray Lujan, the keynote speaker at the DNC a few months ago, holds Senator Jeff Bingaman's seat for Democrats against Republican Pete Domenici Jr.

[Miles]

If Romney's winning Ohio, he'd do better in the counties. I'd hand him Cincinnati, at least, and maybe give Obama a couple counties in SE Ohio.

Modified.

I ran up Romney's margins in western OH and gave him Hamilton County.

 

Good update, though one little thing - no way would Obama win Riley County in Kansas. Not even LBJ could win it in `64.

Ok.

Well, Riley is one of the dozen or so counties in KS that are actually trending Democrat. I thought I'd get creative and trade Crawford for Riley. I'll go back later and fix that.

[Miles]

Chris: Following pretty iffy news for the President out of Ohio, we do have some good news for him. In Wisconsin, which was the epicenter of American politics for most of 2011, he has performed well. He will be carrying the 10 electoral votes associated with Wisconsin. There was a lot of liberal energy here left over from the 2011 recall elections, in fact, Governor Scott Walker will likely face a recall election himself next year. Walker has really helped in closing the Democratic "enthusiasm gap" that was so prominent in Wisconsin during the 2010 cycle.
In fact, one of the victims of the enthusiasm gap, Senator Russ Feingold will be headed back to the Senate after losing 2 years ago; he defeated Freshman House Republican Sean Duffy. Of course, Feingold was one of the foremost progressives while he was in the Senate. Some speculated that Feingold would challenge Walker in the recall election next year, but he opted to run for Senate again. The President will be taking 52% of the vote here and Senator Feingold has captured 53%. Feingold said that his top priority when he returns to Congress will be trying to find legislative and Congressional means of deterring the Citizens United case and its ramifications.

Rachel: We also have some good news for Republicans. In Louisiana, we have a sound GOP victory. The Governor will add 8 more electoral votes to his tally. We can project that he will be winning Louisiana by 18 points. The President marginally improved on his 2008 performance, but nonetheless, Louisiana is aggressively moving towards Republicans these days.
An interesting fact about Louisiana, in the exit polls, surveyors asked whether the President's race would make voters less likely to vote for him; the state with the highest "yes" response rate was Louisiana.

Looking at the electoral landscape of Louisiana tonight, if I were Senator Mary Landrieu, I'd be feeling very cautious right now. Even though she isn'y up for election this year, Senator Landrieu, the last remaining statewide Democrat in Louisiana, will have to cast her votes very carefully if she wants to be reelected in 2 years.

Chris: Yep, the Louisiana Democrats were always the most conservative Democrats. From what I've seen, Mary Landrieu knows how to frame herself to win in this conservative state. Moving to Arkansas, we have a very close race. Arkansas, of course, is the home of Obama's running-mate Governor Mike Beebe. Despite the state's recent Republican resurgence, Team Obama seriously contested this state. As of now, its too close to call.
What we seem to have is a classic Arkansas tossup scenario; the Delta region and most of the south went for the Democrat, while the north and west have gone Republican.
This could be very close. Its worth noting that in some Delta counties, Obama has broken 70%; that's because Beebe was born and raised in that region. The coalitions that each side builds in Arkansas will be interesting to watch. Right now, Governor Romney holds a very slight advantage.

Rachel: Well, even if Democrats don't win statewide, they have picked up one Congressional seat. In the reconfigured 2nd district, former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter will oust incumbent Tim Griffin. Halter became well known for challenging Senator Blanche Lincoln in 2010, but narrowly losing. Lincoln went on narrowly retain her seat. The redistricting process also gave Halter an advantage; Democratic Little Rock was paired with heavily Democratic Pine Bluff, while most of the other smaller counties were largely Republican; this turned a Republican-leaning district into a relatively swingy seat. 

Chris: Now for another state that is similar to Wisconsin. The President has won Minnesota again. His performance will expectantly be weaker than last time around, but the AP maintains that he will be taking almost 52% to Romney's 46%. Also, like New Jersey, Minnesota is a state where we have 2 Senate races. In the regular election, Senator Amy Klobuchar, who is one of the most popular members of Congress, sweeps every county against Republican Theresea Collette. The Special election was more interesting though. Interim Senator Betty McCollum wins over former Senator Norm Coleman. However, McCollum, like Senator Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey, will be up again in 2014.

Rachel: And remember Congressman Chip Cravaack, the keynote speaker at this year's RNC? Well, he will be losing tonight. Cravaack seat was a top target of the DSCC. The new Congressman for Minnesota's 8th with be Democrat Bill Richard. Richard was the Chief of Staff for Rep. Jim Oberstar, a longtime Congressman from that district.

Chris: Finally, we can close this batch with Nebraska. While the President managed to snag the state's 2nd Congressional district, he will have no such luck tonight. Governor Romney will be taking all 5 electoral votes from Nebraska. We can also report a Senate seat takeover. For the seat being vacated by Democrat Ben Nelson, Governor Dave Heineman will soundly be elected to the Senate against Democrat Mike Meister. Heinaman was a strong and early support of Mitt Romney.

[Miles]

'Working on an update for later today!

I'll have results from NC, AZ, WY and an official AP call for PA.

[Miles]

Here's another cumulative Presidential map.

Obama and Romney are only 1 electoral vote apart!!!!! (and no, I actually didn't plan that!)

ROMNEY- 162
OBAMA- 161

[Miles]

Hey, I'd like to see South Dakota, especially the Congressional race (it's Sandlin, right?)

Nah, Noem is cruisin'

[Miles]

The update will be later tonight....about 11-midnight-ish.

'Miles

[Miles]

'Working on an update for later today tomorrow!

I'll have results from NC, AZ, WY and an official AP call for PA.

[Miles]

Rachel: We now have a most...epic...batch of returns to report here at MSNBC Election Night. Perhaps no swing state was contested by the Obama team than North Carolina. While Obama did invest heavily here, and he even selected Charlotte for the DNC, the economic recovery in North Carolina has been languid, benefiting Romney. Our initial returns, with 48% of ballots counted, shows the candidates locked in an expectedly narrow race. Governor Romney is clinging to a razor-thin 49.5% to the President's 49.1%. Back in 2008, it actually took a few days to accurately call North Carolina; that might be the case again with the contest this close.

Chris: While the race for President got a lot of attention, we do have some important local results. Remember Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory lost the Republican nomination for Governor to former Congressman Robin Hayes!? Hayes ran as a tea party-backed alternate to the more moderate McCrory. Well, Democrats were smiling back then and they're smiling now; by giving the nomination to a less electable candidate, Republicans essentially handed Governor Perdue victory. Governor Perdue will be defeating Robin Hayes. Amazing that, even last year, most pundits were writing her off against McCrory.

Rachel: In fact, we have exit polls showing that McCrory would have won! This just shows how important primaries are! In the Congressional arena, Democrats could be running on borrowed time. Due to extensive court battles and legal paralysis, the current map will be used for one more cycle. For the 2014 cycle, a map drawn by the courts will be implemented. It is worth noting that that the current map was drawn to favor Democrats; a court-drawn map could endanger as many as 3 Democrats.
But for now, Democrats will actually gain a seat in North Carolina's delegation. We start in the 7th district, which is nestled in the southeastern corner of the state. This is actually another rematch. Ilario Pantano was a key speaker at the RNC; however he will be falling short again against Congressman Mike McIntyre. He'll be holding McIntyre under 60%, but still losing by about 18 points.

Chris: We also had a closely-watched race in the 2nd district. Republican Renee Ellmers was swept ashore in the 2010 GOP wave. However, tonight, she has been soundly beaten by Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, a resident of Harnett county. Renee Ellmers was always a controversial figure in the district and was a prime target of Democrats.

Rachel: Finally, in the 8th Congressman Larry Kissell has won against State Senator Bob Rucho. Kissell initially planned to run for Secretary of State, but announced he would run for Congress again when it was announced that the map would not change this year. Rucho campaigned strongly in Cabarrus and Stanly counties, but was blown away elsewhere inthe district.  (and no, Rucho doesn't actually live in the district he ran in, but neither does Virginia Foxx)

Chris: Well, no telling how late we could up waiting for a Presidential  winner in North Carolina. One state where we do have winners is Arizona. If Arizona hadn't been McCain's home state, Obama might well have carried it in 2008. Tonight, it stays Republican; Romney actually improved on McCain's margin. In the Senate race, Arizona will be sending Senator Jon Kyl back to Congress for 6 more years over AG Terry Goddard. Even though Kyl had a few gaffes, he will nonetheless be winning by about 6 points.

We only have 1 high-profile Congressional race here. Former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick narrowly bests Congressman Paul Gosar to return to Congress. Democrats tried to portray Gosar as a fringe candidate; Gosar did have to take some tough votes in the House, like the Ryan Budget, that Kirkpatrick used against him. Congresswoman Gabby Giffords will be going unopposed while Arizona's new 9th district will be going Republican (sorry, I did't know any good candidates )

Rachel: Now lets go Wyoming. At the top of ticket, Republicans dominated. Governor Romney will be carrying the state 2-to-1. Senator John Barasso had no major opponent. What is truly historic about Wyoming tonight is the Congressional contest. Former Governor Dave Freudnethal, who remains extremely popular, will he knocking off Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis.
Fruedenthal, despite his party affiliation, trounced Lummis with Independents, winning them 64-34, and he got roughly a third of the Republican vote, while still keeping over 90% of Democrats. That kind of crossover support is very impressive, especially in a state like Wyoming.

Chris: A very, very impressive feat for Freudenthal. You know, the last time that Wyoming had a Democrat the House was 35 years ago! This was a truly groundbreaking election there.

Rachel: We can finally call Pennsylvania. Despite the slow economic recovery here, the President will be retaining. I think what we're seeing here is the result of an extraordinary effort by the Obama campaign to get the vote out in the Keystone state. While the President isn't out of the woods yet, this gives him a much-needed boost. Our county-level results aren't 100% accurate, but they're fairly close; again, the AP is calling the Keystone state for the President by about 51-48.

[Miles]

Yeah, go Obama!

What was the 1% who didn't vote for Barasso?

Eh, I had to give some portion of the vote to third parties.

[Miles]

Cumulative Congressional Update:

SENATE



NET CHANGE: D+1

U.S HOUSE

REPUBLICANS: 174
DEMOCRATS: 156
RUNOFF NEEDED: 4
OUTSTANDING: 101

[Miles]

OBAMA- 181
ROMNEY-176

(I'll post a map when I call more states)

[Miles]

How did Cicciline manage to hold on in Rhode Island? I know its a pretty liberal place, but I don't see him winning against the Republican.

Just assume some generic (and thus, electable) Democrat beat him in the primary and held the seat.

Who won Luektemeyer's seat in MO?

His 9th district was axed since he ran for Senate. Most of his district was combined with Aiken's and Graves'.


I'll shoot for an update by Monday; I'm currently working on a few more state maps.

'Miles

[Miles]

A long-awaited update!

Rachel: Continuing our move westward, we have several more states to project. We just got results from the Dakotas. Starting in South Dakota, the home of Republican VP candidate John Thune. Accordingly, Governor Romney will be winning the state in a blowout 68-31 margin. This just shows how popular Senator Thune is back home. Democratoc counties are largely limited to those with large majority Native American populations. In the House race, Freshman Republican Kristi Noem faced only token opposition, as former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin decided against seeking a rematch.

Chris: The Republican Presidential ticket was also very strong in North Dakota. Romney will be winning there by about 30 points. However, at the state level, North Dakota is more of a mixed bag. We had quite an interesting Senate race here. Acting Governor Jack Dalrymple challenged Senator Kent Conrad. Dalrymple was fairly popular despite not actually being elected; he portrayed Conrad as a Beltway insider who was too entrenched in D.C politics to be in touch with North Dakota. Polling was close for this race, as Dalrymple was competitive. With only 64% of precincts in, we can report that Senator Conrad is trailing the Governor. This could really come down to the wire. North Dakota hasn't had a competitive Senate race in decades.

Rachel: There was also an open Governor's race there. This comes as good news for Democrats. The AP can project that former Senator Byron Dorgan will come out ahead of Lieutenant Governor Drew Wrigley. Because of his retirement, Dorgan wasn't as attached to D.C as Conrad, so that definitely played his favor. Wrigley also ran somewhat of an ineffective and slow campaign.

Chris: Moving west still, we have a look at Nevada. Governor Romney has always done well here and we can report that he is indeed in a tight race. At this point, we can give the President a small lead, but we still about a third of precincts left.
However, one race that isn't close is the Senate contest. Congresswoman Dina Titus will be soundly elected over tea party icon Sharron Angle. Angle ousted Senator John Ensign in the primary, but never had much appeal outside of conservative voters. Even if Obama loses here, Democrats should be glad that they have both of Nevada's Senate seats.
The House delegation will stand at 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. Democrats Shelley Berkley and Chris Guinchigliani were elected in liberal Las Vegas districts will Republicans Joe Heck and Sue Lowden take the other 2 seats.

Rachel: We can finally make a call in Missouri. Governor Romney will win there by about 3%. The President lost there by 3000 votes and since then the electorate has become less receptive to him. In any case, its a good boost for Governor Romney.

[Miles]

Woah, Obama did worse than I expected in the Dakotas. Guess Thune helped a lot more than I expected.

It may seem like a lot, but in 2004, Bush got 60% in SD and 62% in ND.

So Romney outperforms Bush by 8% in SD and 2% in ND. I think that's reasonable considering Thune's home-state effect.

[Miles]

Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)

[Miles]

Up next:

-IA
-CO
-MT
-UT
-AR (official AP call)

that'll be today??

I hope Conrad wins... he's one of my favourite senators.

Probably not today; I'll be traveling tomorrow, so I'll shoot for Saturday. I'll post what I can tonight as well.

I'll try to get IA, MT and UT up tonight. How's that?

[Miles]

Chris: Now lets go Utah. As a Mormon, this was like a home-state to Governor Romney. As you would expect, it was no contest at the Presidential level. Romney beat the President by a better than 3-to-1 margin. 'Pretty impressive. Governor Gary Herbert soared to reelection over minor third-party candidates.
However, the race to watch here was for Senate. Hoping to avoid the fate of his former colleague Bob Bennett, Senator Orrin Hatch left the GOP to run on his own. The tea party went after Hatch because of his extensive bipartisan work with the late Teddy Kennedy. However, by skipping the GOP Convention to run as Independent, he may have only postponed his fate. Democrats did not run a candidate; some say that Hatch made a deal with Democratic officials in the state. Because no real Democrat ran, Hatch was hoping to build a coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats. However, tonight it looks like we can report that Congressman Jason Chaffetz, the Republican, will be making history by defeating Utah's longest serving Senator. Even with high name recognition and a solid effort, Hatch couldn't withstand the overwhelming Republican coattails.

Rachel: Next we have Montana. This is another sort of mixed-bag state where both parties have won important races. As you pointed out earlier, Chris, Governor Romney has always had a certain electoral prowess out west; that also hols true for Montana. While McCain only carried Montana with less than 50% in 2008, the President's standing there has certainly eroded. The AP says that Romney will win there by about 9 points.
There was a great amount of ballot-crossing among Montana voters as well. In the Senate race, Senator Jon Tester has won by about 12 points over an almost perennial Republican, Steve Daines.
In the House race, Governor Brian Schweitzer, who was considered to be on the President's short-list for VP this year, will be elected to Congress for Montana's at-large seat. Schweitzer, like Governor Dave Freudnethal in next-door Wyoming, was a popular term-limited Governor who opted to run for the House. Schweitzer makes a strong Congressional debut, winning just under 60% of the vote.
Finally, Congressman Denny Rehberg will assume the Governorship. He defeats AG Steve Bullock. So again, in Montana, we pretty much have victories for both parties.

(I didn't get to IA )

[Miles]

Chris: Another state that was more close this time around was Iowa. Obama carried it in 2008 handily by about 10 points. Well, Governor Romney was hoping that he could capitalize on Senator Thune's midwestern appeal there. While Iowa was more competitive, we can say that Obama will be retaining it by about 6 points.
We only have 1 notable House race there. Congressmen Leonard Boswell and Tom Latham were thrown into the same district as Iowa had to ax one of its seats after the census. Latham was a Republican who always enjoyed strong support from Independents; tonight, in somewhat of an upset, he will be defeating Boswell for that newly-drawn, central-Iowa 3rd district.

Rachel: We have results from Idaho. No shocks; the Governor easily wins 4 more electoral votes. There were no other major races here and both of Idaho's GOP Congressman will be easily reelected.

Chris: Finally, despite overwhelming support for Obama/Beebe in the Arkansas delta, Romney will be winning the Razorback state. Eh, at least Democrats picked up a Congressional seat there.

Rachel: When it rains, it certainly pours; we have even more bad news for Democrats. We can project that the key state of Florida will end up in Romney's camp. Republicans ran a great operation there and some criticized Obama's effort there as lazy and lacking urgency. In any case, this is a major blow to the President and it truly does complicate his path to 270.

[Miles]

ROMNEY- 240
OBAMA- 187