Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 22, 2019, 02:41:08 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Eli Gorbinsky, Apocrypha)
  2011 and Beyond...
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 26 Print
Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 129613 times)
-
KS21
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,902
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 10, 2010, 07:00:54 pm »

Gene Taylor's chances are looking good.

I'm glad Lieberman is finally where he belongs.
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,575
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 11, 2010, 03:18:04 pm »

I am surprised. this TL is really good, and it's very simple to understand (especially for a spanish speaker xD). Thanks for writting.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: November 12, 2010, 09:41:08 am »

LATE JULY 2011


Politico Reports:

"There have been solid reports from within Democratic ranks that not only Olympia Snowe, but Susan Collins as well will switch parties. Ever since Lieberman left the Democratic ranks, Dems have been aggressively luring Olympia Snowe to join their caucus. Collins, who will be in a similar electoral situation as Snowe in 2014, is heavily considering changing parties at this early junction to avoid accusations that she is  political chameleon."
Logged
-
KS21
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,902
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: November 12, 2010, 09:45:09 am »

LATE JULY 2011


Politico Reports:

"There have been solid reports from within Democratic ranks that not only Olympia Snowe, but Susan Collins as well will switch parties. Ever since Lieberman left the Democratic ranks, Dems have been aggressively luring Olympia Snowe to join their caucus. Collins, who will be in a similar electoral situation as Snowe in 2014, is heavily considering changing parties at this early junction to avoid accusations that she is  political chameleon."

This is great. The two Maine women are far better than Lieberman.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: November 12, 2010, 11:40:29 am »

25 JULY 2011

A few days after the rampant rumors of both Maine senators changing parties, Maine pollster Critical Insights ran a series of hypothetical polls.

Critical Insights- July 22-24, 2011

Preview:

"Both Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins trail badly in early GOP primary polling. Snowe, who is up in 2012 trails by 24 points over a generic conservative challenger; Collins does only slightly better, though she still stands at a 21-point deficit. Fortunately, both senators remain on positive ground with moderates and Democrats. Based on these numbers and the strength of the Maine Tea Party, the clearest path for reelection for both senators would be to abandon the GOP."

Republican Primary Polls

In a 2012 Republican primary would you vote to re-nominate Olympia Snowe over a more conservative challenger?

Yes-35%
No-59%


In a 2014 Republican primary would you vote to re-nominate Susan Collins over a more conservative challenger?

Yes-37%
No-58%


General Election Polls:

Would you be open to supporting Olympia Snowe if she ran for reelection as a Democrat in 2012?

Yes-58%
No-33%

Would you be open to supporting Susan Collins if she ran for reelection as a Democrat in 2014?

Yes-57%
No-35%


Democratic Primary Polls

In a Democratic primary, would you rather moderate Olypmia Snowe over a more liberal challenger?

Yes-49%
No-39%

In a Democratic primary, would you rather moderate Susan Collins over a more liberal challenger?

Yes-47%
No-40%




Similarly in neighboring CT, Quinnipiac University conducted hypothetical polls testing Lieberman's electoral strength.

Quinnipiac University Polling Center- July 22-23, 2011


Preview:

Despite  Joe Lieberman's party switch, he still remains in weak shape heading into 2012. His favorably among Democrats is, expectedly, at a record low. Lieberman is still widely disliked by independents and captures only a plurality of support from his new party, the GOP; he also is set to narrowly lose a GOP primary. Its pretty safe to say that the odds are heavily against Lieberman making a 5th trip to DC as CT's Senator, as he trails badly in general election polls.

Republican Primary Poll

Would you support Republican Senator Joe Lieberman in a GOP primary or a challenger?

Lieberman-40%
Challenger(s)-50%


General Election Polls

In the general Senate election in 2012, would you vote for Republican Joe Lieberman, Democrat Chris Murphy, or are you unsure?

Lieberman(R)*-32%
Murphy(D)-52%
Other/unsure-16%

In the general Senate election in 2012, would you vote for Republican Joe Lieberman, Democrat Jim Himes, or are you unsure?

Lieberman(R)*-31%
Himes(D)-55%
Other/unsure-14%

Lieberman Favorables:

Democrats- 19/72
Independents- 28/60
Republicans- 47/37


Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,575
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 12, 2010, 11:43:41 am »

Fantastic! Ilike Olympia and I don't dislike susan. so, I'm happy with this Wink
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 12, 2010, 01:36:02 pm »
« Edited: November 12, 2010, 01:46:24 pm by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

27 JULY 2011

With under a week to go until the MS governor's primaries, Gene Taylor gets 2 major boosts.

-Retired NFL star and south Mississippi native Brett Favre will be making frequent campaign stops for Taylor. Favre, a celebrity in his home state, remains very popular in his native Gulf Coast region. In the past, Favre has made donations to Taylor (this is actually true) and now he has time to campaign. Favre will help Taylor consolidate his south Mississippi base and help voter turnout in the Democratic 2nd District by energizing black voters.




-The NRA, which has a history of endorsing Taylor and Mississippi Dixiecrats, endorses Taylor again. This will help Taylor in central and northern MS, areas where he is performing the weakest.


Logged
Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,560


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 12, 2010, 01:36:46 pm »

Very nice so far! I really like how you're governing the 2011 Gubernatorial elections. I don't think I've ever seen another timeline that's done that. Smiley
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 12, 2010, 02:21:06 pm »

1 AUGUST 2011

Our first cumulative look at the 2012 Senate races:

This assuming that Snowe and Collins do change parties.


Logged
-
KS21
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,902
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: November 12, 2010, 03:12:51 pm »

It looks good for Taylor...

And Ben Nelson and Lieberman are losing. Smiley
Logged
Kevin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,403
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: November 12, 2010, 04:02:55 pm »

1 AUGUST 2011

Our first cumulative look at the 2012 Senate races:

This assuming that Snowe and Collins do change parties.



I'd move Florida, Montana, and North Dakota to tossup given the environment for those incumbents.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: November 12, 2010, 04:12:01 pm »

Tester and Nelson are still popular.

Tester's last approval rating was 54%. Tester lied low during the healthcare debate, thats why he's still on good ground. Baucus was in the center of the debate and his approvals plummeted.

Bill Nelson has as slightly positive approval as 37/35. PPP has him comfortably ahead of Connie Mack and George LeMieux. I can justify Lean D for FL.

Conrad is a total unknown. However, he almost got 70% in 2006, so I'm giving him the benfit of the doubt.
Logged
-
KS21
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,902
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: November 13, 2010, 10:33:45 am »

27 JULY 2011

With under a week to go until the MS governor's primaries, Gene Taylor gets 2 major boosts.

-Retired NFL star and south Mississippi native Brett Favre will be making frequent campaign stops for Taylor. Favre, a celebrity in his home state, remains very popular in his native Gulf Coast region. In the past, Favre has made donations to Taylor (this is actually true) and now he has time to campaign. Favre will help Taylor consolidate his south Mississippi base and help voter turnout in the Democratic 2nd District by energizing black voters.




-The NRA, which has a history of endorsing Taylor and Mississippi Dixiecrats, endorses Taylor again. This will help Taylor in central and northern MS, areas where he is performing the weakest.




Also, Brett Favre's brother was (and I think maybe still is?) mayor of Bay St. Louis, the town Gene Taylor lives in.
Logged
albaleman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,213
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.77, S: -4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: November 13, 2010, 10:36:36 am »
« Edited: November 13, 2010, 10:39:55 am by albaleman »

27 JULY 2011

With under a week to go until the MS governor's primaries, Gene Taylor gets 2 major boosts.

-Retired NFL star and south Mississippi native Brett Favre will be making frequent campaign stops for Taylor. Favre, a celebrity in his home state, remains very popular in his native Gulf Coast region. In the past, Favre has made donations to Taylor (this is actually true) and now he has time to campaign. Favre will help Taylor consolidate his south Mississippi base and help voter turnout in the Democratic 2nd District by energizing black voters.




Oh god. Gene probably had to stop over at his house 50 times and kneel down in worship to him to get him to do it. And CNN probably gave him 24/7 news coverage.
Logged
albaleman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,213
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.77, S: -4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: November 13, 2010, 10:39:11 am »

Great timeline thread, Miles. Keep up the good work!
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: November 13, 2010, 12:54:25 pm »

I knew you'd like the Brett Favre part, albaleman!!
Logged
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: November 13, 2010, 01:49:29 pm »

I find the part about Brett Favre being retired to be completely unrealistic. Tongue

Great timeline so far. Keep it coming!
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: November 13, 2010, 03:22:56 pm »

1 AUGUST 2011

With 1 day until the GOP primary in Mississippi, its anyone's guess:





Taylor still holds small leads over both Republicans.






The effects of the GOP primary are most obvious in the favorable numbers of the candidates; Taylor remains positively viewed , but either Republican will enter the general election on negative ground. Taylor stands at 53/38...both of the Republican's favorables are almost a mirror image of Taylor's.

Favorables:

Taylor- 53/38
Bryant-39/51
Reeves-37/52
Logged
SvenssonRS
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,519
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: November 13, 2010, 05:32:39 pm »

For the sake of this timeline...go Taylor. There, I said it. Wink

(Speaking of conservadems: *cough*FreudenthalforSenate2014*cough*)
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: November 14, 2010, 11:32:50 am »

2 AUGUST 2011

Primary night in Mississippi. With 98% of precincts reporting Reeves is clinging onto a slim lead. The AP says that they will not be able to call the race until Wednesday morning.

Republican  Primary





Democratic Primary

Taylor-100% [uncontested]
Logged
-
KS21
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,902
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: November 14, 2010, 10:43:47 pm »

I hope we get a recount...
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: November 15, 2010, 12:34:17 am »

3 AUGUST 2011

With 100% of the GOP primary votes in, Reeves has expanded his lead to 50.34% to Bryant’s 49.66%. On Wednesday morning, Bryant concedes:



“...It is clear that the Tea Party Movement has made significant inroads here in the Magnolia State. While my team knew we were in for a rough battle, sadly, we did not come out on top, as we had planned. I would hope that our next governor practices the fiscally conservative and principled type of governance that I have fought for. I want to extend my thanks to my campaign workers, everyone who chipped in to my campaign and my family. Regardless of the final outcome of this race, I have enjoyed my time as your Lieutenant Governor and I and proud of the 15-year record I have of serving the people of Mississippi….”



The most important part of Bryant's concession speech: He doesn't endorse Reeves!!


Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: November 15, 2010, 01:20:42 am »
« Edited: November 15, 2010, 02:42:59 am by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

4 AUGUST 2011

After its Mississippi Primary victory, the Tea Party Express releases its 2012 Senate hit list...





***WANTED***

****TRAITOROUS****



OLYMPIA SNOWE-MAINE



ORRIN HATCH-UTAH



KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON-TEXAS



DICK LUGAR-INDIANA



BOB CORKER-TENNESSEE


SCOTT BROWN-MASSACHUSETTS


Logged
SvenssonRS
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,519
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: -4.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: November 15, 2010, 03:33:21 am »

My opinion on the hit list...

Snowe - They'd be insane to do it. Free pickup, much?
Hatch - Yes, please. Cheesy
Hutchison - Retires.
Lugar - Retires.
Corker - Again, yes please. Cheesy
Brown - Uh, yeah. Have fun trying to take out a man with a 70% approval rating(which, to be fair, may have changed ittl...).
Logged
-
KS21
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,902
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: November 15, 2010, 07:56:57 am »

Sounds like a good list. I hope all (except Corker) win.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 26 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC