2011 and Beyond...

[Miles]

Could Hank Williams make another Senate run? With Alexander gone, the field is clear.

Eh, after what he said on Fox, I'm keeping him out my TL! haha

Corker would have an early lead.

Tennessee GOP Primary polling:

Corker- 43%
Blackburn- 36%
Unsure- 21%

[Miles]

I don't think Henry would want to run for Senate. Despite a 52/36 favorable rating, he'd still narrowly trail Tom Cole and J.C Watts in an open-seat contest.

I think you'll like my plans for TX Governor!

[Miles]

My next few posts will be about Governors races; I've kinda focused on the Senate lately, but I'll switch gears.

[Miles]

Update this weekend.

[Miles]

I'd love to see Rick Perry go down to Julian Castro or Bill White.

Not exactly what I have in store, but I don't think you'll be disappointed.

[Miles]

TEXAS SET TO BE CRUCIAL BATTLEGROUND GOV RACE



In Texas, 2014 will feature an electoral event that has not taken place since 1990: an open-seat contest for its highest statewide office. Last week, Governor Rick Perry, who has led Texas for 14 years, announced his choice to retire, though he would legally entitled to seek a 4th term.

"I thought that this would be a good time. It was hard for me to turn down to the opportunity to serve the people of Texas for another 4 years. The growth that Texas has experienced since I took over in 2000 has been remarkable; I can only hope that my succotash continues that legacy of low taxes and economic success."
"Part of the reason Perry decided to hang up the phone is that he isn't a particularly popular Governor" said PPP's Tom Jensen. "Our last survey showed only 38% of Texas approved of him while 48% didn't. Even worse, only 26% wanted him to run again in 2014 versus 53% who wanted him to step aside."

Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst announced his plans to seek a promotion. Normally, he would be the frontrunner, but he has drawn a challenge from his right in Solicter-General Ted Cruz. "The primary is going to be brutal" said one Texas GOP insider "both men are great fundraisers." Ted Cruz promises a "truly conservative vision for Texas" and maintains that Dewhusrt is a career Republican politician. "As Governor, I won't take part in the backroom deals that Dewhurst has done. I've spent my whole career arguing for conservative, limited-government; I'm prepared to take that fight all the way to the Texas Governor's Mansion." Dewhurst counted by pointing to his own accomplishments; "working with Governor Perry, Texas has weathered the recession very well. Our unemployment rate is under the national average and our agricultural and technological sectors are still going strong."
Senators Cornyn and Bush as well as Governor Perry have all endorsed Dewhurst while the Club for Growth, the Tea Party Express and Americans for Prosperity have backed Cruz. Governors Jindal (LA) and Martinez (NM) have both endorsed Cruz while Fallin (OK) is endorsing Dewhurst.

The Democratic primary seems to be just as entertaining. Cecile Richards, daughter of the late Governor Ann Richards is running against former Congressman Max Sandlin. Richards was the President of Planned Parenthood; while she's more in touch with the Democratic base, some see the more conservative-minded Sandlin as more electable in the general. "Ever since my mother left office, Republicans have been hard at work trying to take the state backwards. I'm running because I think the Democratic party has a lot to offer Texas and I want to put Texas back on the right track by picking up where my mother left off." Sandlin plans on winning the general election by reaching out to normally Republican-leaning voters. "In Congress, I represented rural Texas, thats where I come from and that's what I will emphasize. While the Democratic party in Texas is growing , we must stay true to our rural roots. I want to take a common-sense, non-ideological approach to governing; that's what my record will show."
Sandlin, a hunting enthusiast, has already secured one crucial bargaining chip in the election: the NRA's endorsement. Sandlin also has endorsements from Governors Taylor of Mississippi and Senators Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Still, many in the party state leadership have endorsed Richards, including Congressmen Sheila Jackson-Lee, Gene Greene and Lloyd Doggett.

[Miles]

IN OH, MA, BROWNS SEEK COMEBACKS



2012 was not a good year to be a Senator with the last name "Brown"; both Scott Brown of Massachusetts and Sherrod Brown lost their reelection bids. Still, 2014 may bring comeback chances for both of them. Both Massachusetts and Ohio will feature open-seat Gubernatorial races; Governor Duval Patrick, rather than seeking a third term, will take over the DNC in 2015, while Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio is term-limited.
"The good news for both Browns is that, while they were both voted out of office in 2012, voters in both states still see them positively" says Jensen. "Scott Brown stands at a good 48/35 favorable spread. Sherrod Brown is decently popular as well, standing at 45/35."

In 2010, Ohio was the closest Gubernatorial races in the county; Strickland won by less than 1,000 votes.  John Kasich, the Republican, is running again for Governor. What may help Brown is that Legislative Republicans in the Assembly have proposed anti-union legislation that has been widely unpopular; Republican majorities are so large that they were able to override Strickland's veto. Early on, Kasich endorsed this legislation; that may hurt him this time around. The economy in Ohio is also improving, so the overall environment will not be as hostile towards Democrats; unemployment has dropped from 9.6% in 2010 to 8.0%.
PPP has Brown up 5% in Kasich, 45% to 40%. Voters are mum on Strickland, giving him a 46/50 approval rating; while that may sound subpar, Assembly Republicans incredibly unpopular, at 34/52. 

In Massachusetts, Governor Deval Patrick remains popular, posting a solid 51% approval rating while only 37% disapprove. Still, President Obama announced that he tapped Patrick to be the next DNC Chairman in 2015, when current Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz steps down; this prompted Patrick to forgo seeking a 3rd term. Patrick's Lieutenant Governor, Tim Murray said thet he will seek the promotion to Governor. In polling, Brown posts a slight lead over Murray, 47% to 43%. "While Massachusetts is a Democratic state, we have seen that its voters are still open to supporting moderate Republicans for statewide offices; Governors Romney and Weld come to mind. We think that Scott Brown is such a Republican. Voters have said that while they prefer Democrats on the federal level, they'd be willing to vote Republican on the more local level" said RGA Chair Bobby Jindal. "The Massachusetts Gubernatorial race was competitive in 2010 and I think that, with Scott, Republicans can do well in the Bay State this cycle."

[Miles]

'Ya know, just to expedite things, I think I'll just jump to Election Day 2014.

...I'll have a few updates coming.

[Miles]

All right, I have final exams fast approaching next week, so I probably won't get to focus on updates. 'Gotta prioritize! I'll be done with exams by December 8th though.

I HAVEN'T FORGOTTEN ABOUT THIS TL!! I have some good stuff down the line!

For most of December and January, I'll be back and forth between Baton Rouge, New Orleans and Charlotte, but I'll have plenty of time for the TL and Election Night 2014. I'm hoping to be done with Election Night 2014 by early/mid-January so I can move to the 2016 Presidential race!

Cheers,
Miles


Until then....

[Miles]

Miles, what was the original 2020 scenario?

Also, are you gonna restart this?

I'm actually making an entirely new TL, but based off this storyline.

My very first TL is over in the 2010 Senate prediction threads. I'll have to do some digging for it; it wasn't as detailed as this one. Basically, I had Charlie Crist/Blanche Lincoln (D) beating Paul Ryan/Scott Brown (R) for President in 2020.