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Miles
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« Reply #400 on: April 30, 2011, 01:38:48 am »
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Before I post the House map, I have a special feature on the home state of yours truly...

REDISTRICTING FREE-FOR-ALL IN LOUISIANA
NEW LA MAP PITS 4 INCUMBENTS AGAINST EACH OTHER IN JUNGLE PRIMARIES


A brutal redistricting fight recently concluded between Governor Bobby Jindal and Attorney General Eric Holder. The original map submitted by the Louisiana Legislature only allowed for one minority-majority district, with African Americans making up 52% of the electorate their, while the remaining five districts would be solidly Republican. When the Obama DOJ insisted that Louisiana draw two VRA districts, Jindal decried this move as a "blatant and obvious partisan abuse of the law" and "racial politics at its worst." After initially attempting to resist and swim around the DOJ's order, a lengthy court battle ensued over the map borders. Finally, in March of 2012, the DOJ cleared Louisiana's final proposal, passed by the Republican state legislature and signed by a reluctant Jindal.
The new map consists now contains a second minority district, with a 54% black to 41% whites. LA-02, the original VRA district, increases its minority population with 53% black to 37% white.





The political ramifications from LA redistricting will be very interesting to watch as they develop.  In 4 of the 6 districts, high-profile LA politicians will be running against each other. The additional VRA district has forced Congressmen John Flemming and Rodney Alexander to be drawn into the same north-central Louisiana district, LA-04. While the 4th is Republican leaning, both will be competing in a jungle primary, potentially splitting the Republican vote; still, no prominent Democrats have appeared interested in running .
After the second redistricting plan was drafted,the old  LA-03 was left fairly similar to its current configuration (except it was numbered as the LA-06). While it retained much of its coastal lands, it has "arms" that extend near Lafayette and Baton Rouge, on either side. Because it takes in parts of Baton Rouge, Rep. Jeff Landry will be running against Rep. Bill Cassidy, setting up a proxy war between the LA Republican establishment and the tea party.

In both VRA districts, the Congressional races are looking to be equally as harsh.
In LA-02, incumbent Cedric Richmond, who carried baggage in 2010 despite his landslide win, is being challenged by former Congressman Charlie Melancon. The second district has expanded to include rural south parishes, as well as Melancon's home in Napoleonville. Louisiana Attorney General Joesph Cao said that he has "no interest" in running for his old seat.
Finally, the newly open minority 5th will feature a contest between State Rep. Michael Jackson of Baton Rouge, an Independent, Republican Chris Hazel of Alexandria, another state legislator and 2010 Democratic nominee Tom Gibbs.
Congressman Steve Scalise and Charles Boustany, because they have managed to keep their districts to themselves, have remained relatively insulated from the entire process.

LA District PVIs


LA Congressional Polls for competitive districts



....................................................................................Louisiana politics can never be clean!
« Last Edit: April 30, 2011, 04:44:32 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


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« Reply #401 on: April 30, 2011, 09:20:58 am »
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wow, fantastic update. definitely, LA politics are one of my favourites in the USA... IMO; Melancon should loose badly do Richomnd... why doesn't he try to do somethind in LA-06? I know it's R+18, but he is a Blue Dog and he can't wwin in a D+14 district...
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Miles
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« Reply #402 on: May 01, 2011, 03:44:03 pm »
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MAY 8 2012

PPP+SurveyUSA: In our second comprehensive look at the House elections, we found little change since our late February survey. Since then, we have gotten a clearer picture of the dynamics of each race as well as the electoral landscape as a whole; clear candidates are beginning to emerge as primaries approach and all district lines are final.

Based on our polls, Republicans are still favored to hold the People's House. Our late February polls found Republicans maintaining control with 218 districts to Democrats' 197. Four months later, we found minimal movement; Republicans are favored to hold at least 215 seats to Democrats' 195.



Republicans seats favored to flip:
FL-25 (Rivera)
MN-08 (Cravaack)
WV-01 (McKinley)
MT-AL (Open)
WY-AL (Lummis)
IL-13 (Schilling)
IL-06 (Dold)
IL-08 (Walsh)
LA-05 (Open)

Democratic seats favored to flip:
IN-02 (Open)
NC-08 (Open)
NC-13 (Miller)
OR-01 (Wu)

A few races to watch across the country.
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JewCon
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« Reply #403 on: May 01, 2011, 05:37:09 pm »
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Go Romney! Great story Smiley
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Cath
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« Reply #404 on: May 01, 2011, 05:57:51 pm »
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I haven't been completely following this, but has Romney chosen a running mate yet?
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« Reply #405 on: May 01, 2011, 06:01:43 pm »
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Whats going on in Floridas 22nd district (my district), with Allen West.
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Miles
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« Reply #406 on: May 01, 2011, 06:50:37 pm »
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Incredible maps! Love the dedication Smiley

Smiley

lol. Wait 'till I start rolling out the election results! I'm planning on having the House results broken down by district AND county lines! Here's an example (NC-13):

I haven't been completely following this, but has Romney chosen a running mate yet?

No, both Romney and Obama will be choosing running mates later (Biden will be taking over as SoS).

Whats going on in Floridas 22nd district (my district), with Allen West.

Former West Palm Beach mayor Louis Frankel is challenging Allen West. For simplicity's sake, the district itself stayed fairly unchanged.


****If anyone wants to see regions of the map in greater detail, try this link; you should be able to find the FULL size version of the map.
http://content.screencast.com/users/Milesc56/folders/Snagit/media/5cd83d62-d58a-4bec-bda8-fa57153e9f28/05.01.2011-18.31.01.bmp

Anyway, for my next post, I'll have primary results from:
- CT (we'll see how Lieberman fares as a Republican)
- UT (we find out which Republican gets to challenge Orrin Hatch and the fate of Jim Matheson)
- OH (competitive Senate primaries on both sides)
- PA (pretty boring)
« Last Edit: May 01, 2011, 11:33:13 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


Miles
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« Reply #407 on: May 01, 2011, 11:31:22 pm »
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If anyone cares, here's the House districts map with counties.

http://content.screencast.com/users/Milesc56/folders/Snagit/media/486697a9-9fc0-4e99-810b-24bb255ad62e/05.01.2011-23.28.51.png
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« Reply #408 on: May 05, 2011, 04:57:53 pm »
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Keep up the great work. Amazing story! Cheesy Mitt 2012!
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Miles
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« Reply #409 on: May 16, 2011, 03:16:07 pm »
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NOT EVEN CLOSE
CT GOP ENDS LIEBERMAN'S CAREER, PROGRESSIVES CHEER



In one of the most interesting and closely followed primaries of this year, Linda McMahon will be defeating Senator Joe Lieberamn for the Republican Senate nomination. Lieberman switched to caucus with the GOP in 2011, still, his 20+ year association with the Democratic party was difficult to sell in a Republican primary. Another one of Lieberman's missteps could have been a fundraiser he hosted with Sen. John McCain, an unpopular figure to Republicans. McMahon nailed Lieberman on flip-flopping on economic issues, still, to have a chance in the general election, McMahon will undoubtedly have to track left. The Democrats have nominated Rep. Jim Himes, who won over minor opponents. Lieberman, unlike hos iconic 2006 run, said that he will not run in the general election as an Independent.



In Ohio, our general election field has taken shape. On the Democratic side, Senator Sherrod Brown has easily fended off a challenge from his right in former Congressman Steve Driehaus. Brown had the support of a motivated liberal base and strong labor movement. Polls initially suggested this primary had the potential to be competitive, but Brown will win with 60%.
Far Republicans, the primary was much closer. State Auditor Mary Taylor will be defeating Congresswoman Jean Schmidt. This comes as bad news for the Democrats; most polls showed Brown with a double-digit lead over Schmidt, but in a much closer contest against Taylor.
The labor movement sweeping across the midwest will have a large roll in the outcome of this election. In the states of Michigan and Wisconsin, Republican governors have stripped away collective bargaining rights of workers; Governor Strickland, who survived reelection by only 618 votes, is battling Republican supermajorites in both state legislative chambers over collective bargaining rights. With roughly 63% of each state chamber, Republicans cannot override a veto, but the fight over labor has nonetheless ignited the Democratic base. While Mary Taylor has said that she is not in favor of taking collective bargaining rights for unions, Brown will undoubtedly try to tie her to the unpopular state Republicans.


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« Reply #410 on: May 16, 2011, 04:14:58 pm »
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great!
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S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #411 on: May 16, 2011, 05:24:52 pm »
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Nice update Smiley
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Cath
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« Reply #412 on: May 16, 2011, 06:38:29 pm »
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Nice update Smiley
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« Reply #413 on: May 16, 2011, 09:52:41 pm »
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Miles
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« Reply #414 on: May 26, 2011, 09:44:28 am »
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June 1 2012
OBAMA TO ANNOUNCE BIDEN REPLACEMENT "BY THE END OF JUNE"

"Politico- Today President Obama announced that he will make his VP selection by the end of the month. Following a major Cabinet reshuffling, current VP Joe Biden will be taking over the State Department, assuming Obama is reelected. With a large number of names circulating the blogosphere, these are the names that have been mentioned by top Democratic strategists most frequently:

GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER- MONTANA



Pros:
-During his tenure as Governor, he created the largest budget surplus in Montana's history
-Known for working across the aisle
-Expertise in energy and agricultural issues
-Would make the Democratic ticket more competitive in rural areas; would likely hand Obama Montana, possibly the Dakotas and Missouri, solidify Colorado, Nevada and other western states

Cons:
- Shcweitzer is already running for Congress, if he is elected VP, Republicans would have the benefit of the doubt to succeed him in red-leaning Montana
-Montana only has 3 electoral votes
- His executive style can be a overly aggressive and fiery at times, contrasting with Obama's cool temperament

APPROVAL RATING: 57/31

GOV. GENE TAYLOR- MISSISSIPPI



Pros:
-With over 20 years of experience, Taylor knows the inner workings of Congress
-Mississippi is in sound financial shape, posting slight surpluses
-Has wide crossover appeal

Cons:
-On social issues, he's to the right if Romney; liberals would freak out
-Lack of executive experience; he's been Governor for less than a year
-Even with Taylor, Obama would still struggle in the Gulf Coast states

APPROVAL RATING: 53/37


SEN. BOB CASEY-PENNSYLVANIA



Pros:
-With Obama underwater in PA, his last approvals were 45/47, Casey would likely deliver Obama PA's 20 electoral votes
-Well liked by Democrats and Independents and could draw moderate Republicans
-Could help in other rust belt states

Cons:
-Pro-life stance would frustrate progressives
-Only 1 term in the Senate
-Casey's Senate seat is up this year; Dems have a lackluster bench in PA to replace him

APPROVAL RATING: 50/36


SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR-MINNESOTA



Pros:
-One of the most popular Senators from either party
-Would energize women and satisfy liberals
-A strong candidate to succeed Obama in 2016

Cons:
-Like Casey, she has a Senate election in 2012 as well, though Democrats would be better off holding a seat in MN than PA
-Only 1 term in the Senate
-Despite her popularity, her profile is still fairly low

APPROVAL RATING: 60/32


SEN. PATTY MURRAY-WASHINGTON



Pros:
-Murray would also energize women and progressives
-'Mom in tennis shoes' could resonate well with middle class
- Has the ability to win close elections and campaign effectively
- Former DSCC Chairman; can raise money well

Cons:
-Could be seen as too liberal to Independents
-Obama already polls well in WA
-She's high in the Senate Democratic ranks and may eventually want to a position of even greater stature in the Democratic caucus, rather than to oversee the entire Senate

APPROVAL RATING: 49/38


GOV. JOHN LYNCH- NEW HAMPSHIRE



Pros:
-Among the most popular Governors
-Lynch would neutralize Romney's large operation in NH
-He rode out the 2010 GOP wave in NH relatively comfortably
-Would satisfy the left, but still appeal to the center

Cons:
-Relative unknown to most
-Outside of NH, Obama already polls well in New England

APPROVAL RATING: 58/35

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« Reply #415 on: May 26, 2011, 12:44:05 pm »
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If I were Obama, I'd pick Lynch or Schweitzer.
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« Reply #416 on: May 26, 2011, 12:51:06 pm »
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If I were Obama, I would pick Schweitzer, Taylor, or Casey.
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« Reply #417 on: May 26, 2011, 08:41:56 pm »
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I like seeing the pros and cons of each, and if Obama has to win, then I'm hoping for Schweitzer, Casey, or Taylor as VP.
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Miles
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« Reply #418 on: May 26, 2011, 09:42:48 pm »
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You had already said that Clinton would be the running mate.

Clinton is becoming the Secretary of Defense.
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Miles
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« Reply #419 on: June 11, 2011, 10:46:07 pm »
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CONTENTIOUS FLORIDA PRIMARY PLAYS OBAMA AGAINST CLINTON, GOP SENATORS AGAINST TEA PARTY


As Senate primary season begins to kick into high gear, no contest is more closely watched than that in Florida. Both Democrats and Republicans have invested enormously here and heavy-hitters from each party have been flocking to Florida.

On the Democratic side, it feels like 2010 all over again. Former Governor Charlie Crist, who left office on fairly favorable terms, is battling against 2010 Democratic nominee Rep. Kendrick Meek. In 2010, President Bill Clinton emerged as top Meek ally and will be sticking with Meek during his 2012 campaign. According to President Clinton "Kendrick is the right candidate for Florida. I think Democrats, Independents and even Republicans can agree that, during his time in the House, he put his constituents above the politics of the moment. Thats what a state deserves in a Senator! Kendrick is fighter; when the going gets tough, he's not one to give up/" Despite a rocky 2010 finish Meek insists he will be victorious this year. " I'm the candidate who has a track record of legislating for the working families of Florida. I've led the charge against unfair policies that favor the rich and the established powers over our own hardworking citizens." Meek has also picked up endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus, the ACLU and Senators Boxer, Brown (OH), Sanders and Franken.

President Obama, meanwhile, has endorsed Crist. During his time as Governor, Crist was one of the few Republicans who worked with Obama; he even went so far as to become the sole Republican Governor to endorse Obama's stimulus package. In a rally for Crist, Obama cited the former Governor's bipartisan efforts and criticized the GOP for its "extreme" stances. "Now, as many of you know, when Charlie was Governor, he always did what was best for the people of Florida. Unfortunately, some of his policies weren't too popular with those on the far right who run the Republican Party, even tough his approval rating were through the roof! In fact, they denied him a chance to become a Senator in 2010 because he was "too moderate!" Here in the Democratic Party, we welcome Charlie's common sense approach to governing and I look forward to working with him in the Senate." A handful of other top Democrats have endorsed Crist, such as Senators Landrieu, Pryor, Lincoln and Manchin.

Polls have Crist narrowly ahead and doing better in the general election. Senator Bill Nelson, who is retiring, said that he will not endorse in the primary.


The Republican primary promises to be just as dramatic. Former Senator George LeMieux is running against George Prescott Bush, son of former FL Governor Jeb Bush.

During his time in the Senate, LeMieux became somewhat of rising star within the caucus and many Republican Senators have said that they would like to see him again in the Senate. LeMieux is essentially running as the "establishment" candidate. Senator Mitch McConnell has endorsed him; "In the Senate, George stood as a solid voice for fiscal sanity and was key member of the caucus. I think if the voters of Florida elect him, he will serve them well just as he has in the past." LeMieux also has the backing of several other ranking Republicans, including Senators Sessions, Kyl, Burr and Barrasso.

George P. Bush, unlike his cousin Barbara who has taken many centrist stances in her Texas campaign, has embraced the tea party. Bush said that he was inspired by Senator Marco Rubio's rapid rise the Senate. "Marco's campaign was truly motivational to me. Working from the ground up, we toppled the establishment and sent a true conservative luminary to Washington. We need more Senators like him who are tough on spending and stand up for conservative values. That's why I'm running. Florida is a right-of-center state and we can't afford to keep electing liberals like Nelson or Crist." Bush's uncle, former President George W. Bush has campaigned on his behalf. "During my administration, I would have loved to have George as a Senator; his passion for the issues and his dedication to the Constitution is unparalleled." As expected, Bush has the endorsement of Senator Rubio and the Tea Party Caucus.

One factor which may hurt Republicans here is the deep unpopularity of Governor Rick Scott. While Obama is on slightly negative ground in Florida, the latest Quinnipiac poll found voters disapproving of Scott by greater than a 2:1 margin. Scott, perhaps for the good of his party, has not endorsed a candidate in the Senate race; top state Republicans secretly admit that an endorsement from him could cripple either Bush or LeMieux in the general election. The Obama campaign is already running ads in Florida trying to link GOP nominee Mitt Romney to the wildly unpopular Scott as part of his strategy to hold Florida's 29 electoral votes.

Polling:


Favorables:

Crist............................47/39
Meek...........................40/31
LeMieux......................37/29
Bush...........................35/30

Job Approvals:

Barack Obama............46/50
Rick Scott....................28/62
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« Reply #420 on: June 27, 2011, 03:09:28 pm »
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Rachel Maddow: Welcome to MSNBC's election coverage of this last round of Senate primaries. I'm Rachel Maddow and joining me here in my studio is my colleague Chris Matthews. We hope you'll join us for the next few hours as we roll in results from all across the country. Tonight will be nothing less than a defining night in American politics. While the presidential race between President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney is heating up, and VP speculation is running rampant, tonight we will be covering many Senate races-to-watch.
Chris: That's absolutely right, Rachel. The presidential race is important, but these Senate contests will show us how voters are feeling on the more local levels. Lets not forgot, with Democrats clinging to a 51-seat majority, almost any state could shift the balance in the Senate.


Rachel: And it looks like we have our first round of results coming in. With most precincts in, voters in the Sunshine state have chosen Senate nominees for the seat being vacated by Senator Bill Nelson. On the Democratic side, former Governor Charlie Crist is holding onto just under a 2-point lead over his opponent, former Congressman Kendrick Meek.
Chris: And Republicans have narrowly elected former Senator George LeMieux over George Prescott Bush, the son of Governor Jeb Bush. Very interesting. The Bush family clout worked for Barbara Bush in Texas, but they couldn't quite get by in Texas. I think we could be seeing more from Bush in the future, but tonight just wasn't his night.  In any case, this will no doubt be one the marquee Senate races this year; it could even hinge on the President's performance there.
Rachel: There's another interesting dynamic here. LeMieux owes his national prominence to Crist. Crist appointed him to the Senate and LeMieux was essentially Crist's right-hand man for most of term as governor. To say that I'm interested to see how this race turns out would be a vast understatement....



Democratic Primary



CRIST- 47.2%
MEEK- 45.7%


Republican Primary



LEMIEUX- 48.0%
BUSH- 46.5%

Chris: Now it looks like we have a first results from Utah starting to come in. Let me tell 'ya, Beehive State politics is something else...
Rachel: That's right, Chris. Senator Orrin Hatch, after seeing his colleague Bob Bennett get whacked at the Republican Convention last cycle, decided that he too would likely fail the purity test and subsequently fled the GOP to run as an Independent. Had Hatch stayed a Republican, his career would have probably ended at the Convention a few months ago and he wouldn't have even made it to this primary!  
Chris: Also, no Democrat filed to run for Senate. Some are saying that Hatch made a deal with the Utah Democratic Party; if they didn't run as candidate, he would become the default-Democrat and still pick up moderate Republicans. Will it work? We'll see...
Rachel: We'll see what  happens to Senator Hatch. Tonight Republicans decided who they will run against him in the general election. The top two vote-getters at the convention were Rep. Jason Chaffetz and lawyer Tim Bridgewater. From what we can gather, Chaffetz will be winning by about 8 points.
Chris: Lets not forget that Utah is almost a single-party Republican state. Will it only vote for a Senator with an "R" behind his name? The polls are tight so this election could boil down the ground game of these candidates. No doubt Hatch is taking a big risk. No telling whether he's just prolonging his fate by running as an Independent.





CHAFFETZ- 54.2%
BRIDGEWATER- 45.8%


Chris: Next we're going to Tennessee, where its bad news if you're an incumbent Republican Senator. Remember, back in 2006, Tennessee was one of the few bright spots for Republicans; it was the only competitive race that went to the GOP as Bob Corker kept Bill Frist's seat. Well, tonight Corker will be losing the GOP nomination for that seat in the primary.
Rachel: Corker was never especially liked by conservatives; he made it onto a few tea party primary "hit lists." The Republican field for this race was pretty very crowded; it looks like Corker just got drowned out. The GOP nod will instead go to Congressman Zach Wamp. Wamp ran as seemed to successfully bridge the gap between the tea party and the GOP establishment. Singer Hank Williams Jr., former Congressman Van Hilleary and perennial/joke candidate Basil Marceaux also ran.
Chris: On the Democratic side, former Congressman Bart Gordon has had a pretty easy walk to the nomination. Even though Tennessee is red, a respected  guy like Gordon could have a shot at winning, especially with Corker gone. This just shows you how crazy these primaries can be. I mean, who would have though Bob Bennett, Mike Castle and now Bob Corker would go down like this!?
Rachel: And no word from the Corker camp about a possible write-in or independent run. Looks like his options are pretty slim at this point; he'd have to do a ton of legal and logistical maneuvering to even get back on the ballot.


Wamp- 32.6%
Corker*- 30.1%
Hilleary- 19.0%
Williams- 16.5%
Marceaux- 1.1%


Chris: Missouri has always had interesting elections and tonight is no exception. Freshman Claire McCaskill, who was a big Obama supporter in 2008, could be in for a bumpy ride.
Rachel: Yep. The main contest tonight was between Republicans vying to dislodge her  in the fall. Sarah Steelman emerged as a tea party contender, she won the backing if Senator Jim DeMint and made a real grassroots effort to connect with conservative rural voters. On the other hand Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer ran as more traditional Republican, who was close with the establishment powers.  From what we can report so far, it looks like this will be another close race. Still, we can project that Steelman will hold into a victory with about 51% to 48% to Luetkemeyer.
Chris: Well, looking at the polls, McCaskill would have had a close race with either of the candidates. Steelman definitively has conservative enthusiasm on her side, but she could be seen as less mainstream. This is another seat that could well hinge on the outcome of the Presidential race.
Even if you look at the primary map, you can find clues about the genera election. Steelman performed well in the very socially conservative southern and western regions and narrowly pulled out Kansas City.. Luetkemeyer took a more suburban strategy and won the St. Louis suburbs, most of his district and even a few college towns. This polarization is very interesting.




STEELMAN- 51.1%
LUETKEMEYER- 47.7%

Rachel: Moving to our last state, the Evergreen State looks like a mixed bag for Democrats. The jungle primaries tonight will determine which candidates will advance to the fall election. Senator Maria Cantwell has won a clear majority. The Republican vote was fractured mostly between 2010 House candidate Chris Koster and tea partier Clint Didier. With a 27%, Koster will be the Republican advancing with Cantwell. Nonetheless, Cantwell looks to be in fairly solid shape, as exit polls showed her job approval ratings at a positive 49/36 spread.
Chris: Well Rachel, one thing that definitely isn't positive for Democrats is Governor Gregoire's performance. While she will still be advancing to the general election, she has finished in second place. Even with another semi-major Republican on the ticket, conseervative businessman Paul Akers, Republican AG Rob McKenna has a 6-point lead over Gregoire. Going forward, its very tough to see how Gregroire wins in the general election. Bottom line, if the election were today, she'd lose.
Rachel: Governor Gregoire essentially has 4 months to win back enough voters for her third term. We've seen another unpopular Democratic Governor, Bev Perdue in North Carolina, "luck out" and get a lower-tier opponent over a more electable one, but Gregroire had no such luck. For the record, voters from the exit polls don't like Gregoire, but they're not in love with McKenna either; our polls show that they disapprove of Gregoire 40/51, but only 44% have a favorable opinion of McKenna to 41% who see him negatively. So, this wraps up out and we hope you enjoyed our coverage and that you will join us again for future elections!

Washington Senate Jungle Primary


CANTWELL (D)- 51.4%
KOSTER (R)- 26.8%

DIDIER (R)- 19.3%
OTHERS- 2.5%


Washington Gubernatorial Jungle Primary


MCKENNA (R)- 46.6%
GREGOIRE (D)- 41.0%

AKERS (R)-7.7%
OTHERS- 4.7%
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« Reply #421 on: June 27, 2011, 08:13:40 pm »
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Great!!!! Amazing update (however, this should have been updated some days before...)!!

continue, please
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #422 on: June 28, 2011, 11:05:10 am »
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Nate Silver/538.com-

"Now that each party has their nominees chosen in all 35 Senate races, we at 538.com have released our first full election forecast. The results are based on recent polls as well as 100,000 election simulations.

Based on our results, control of the upper chamber could hinge on virtually any state. Overall, Democrats are likely to hold onto 51 seats to 48 for Republicans and 1 seat is an outright statistical tie.

Each party is favored to "pick-up" two seats thus far. Republicans will almost certainly take Nebraska, we give GOP Governor Heineman a 98.9% chance of winning there. In Ohio Republican AG Mary Taylor is a slight favorite to oust freshman Sherrod Brown; Taylor's chance of victory is 50.4% compared to Brown's 49.6%.

Nevada will be a bright spot for Democrats this year. Former Rep. Dina Titus has an 85.4% chance of flipping that seat over to Democrats and defeating tea partier Sharron Angle. The other likely Democratic pickup is Connecticut, where Rep. Jim Himes is a 65% favorite to defeat Linda McMahon and take back Joe Lieberman's seat.

The New Jersey Special election is an absolute tie; appointed Senator Frank LoBiondo and former Governor Jon Corzine each won in 50,000 simulations. If there was a state most likely to flip the Senate balance, it could be New Jersey. Its other Senator, Bob Menedez, is looking fairly decent, as he has a 68.4% chance of retaining his seat.

We project that 3 Independents will win as well. The safest is Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who has no major party opposition. In Maine Olympia Snowe is also running strong for a 4th term; she has an 84% likelihood of winning her 3-way race. Finally, Orrin Hatch is only a narrow favorite, posting a 50.3% chance of winning.

We'll have House and President simulations out soon."



Projected Election Results by State

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HST1948
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« Reply #423 on: June 28, 2011, 02:10:54 pm »
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I'm so glad you decided to continue posting! Great updates!!!
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Barnes
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« Reply #424 on: June 28, 2011, 04:51:29 pm »
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I'm so glad you decided to continue posting! Great updates!!!

Agreed! This is  fabulous timeline! Smiley
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