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  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Kalwejt, Apocrypha)
  2011 and Beyond...
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #425 on: June 28, 2011, 07:49:13 pm »

I'm so glad you decided to continue posting! Great updates!!!

Agreed! This is  fabulous timeline! Smiley
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Kevin
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« Reply #426 on: June 28, 2011, 10:15:41 pm »

Good job so far Miles!

While I don't agree with the storyline entirely, I still have to say you spared no effort with this.
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Miles
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« Reply #427 on: June 29, 2011, 02:27:39 pm »

Nate Silver/538.com-

"Much the same as with our Senate forecast, our first Presidential simulation has yielded a very close result. Our initial look at the Presidential race shows President Obama clinging to a bare 270 electoral votes to 262 for Republican challenger Mitt Romney; they both have a statistically equal chance of carrying Nevada. As for the popular vote, we project Obama winning by roughly a 50-48.5 margin; quite a far cry from his 7-point victory over Senator McCain in 2008.

Despite the unpopularity of several Republican Governors in the region, Obama continues to struggle in areas of the Industrial Midwest. The states that are most worrisome for him are Ohio, Pennsylvania, and to a lesser extent, Indiana. We project Romney as a moderate favorite to win Ohio, he has a 59% of carrying its 18 electoral votes. An encore performance in Indiana is unlikely for Obama at this point; his chances are a mere 37% to Romney's 63%. We give Romney only a narrow edge Pennsylvania; he posts a 50.8% chance of winning there to Obama's 49.2%. If the President has any room for improvement nationally, much of it would be in these states.

Romney posts similar leads in the states of Florida and New Hampshire. Ever since the primaries, Romney has been running a solid campaign operation in the Granite State and his efforts seem to be paying off. Just next to New Hampshire, Obama is in a rather perilous position in Maine. Even though Maine was an 18-point slaughter for Republicans in 2008, Romney is using his northeastern image to appeal to Independent voters there. Still, Obama is a favorite to carry Maine. Romney is favored to win Florida, but Obama has closed the gap in most polls. Over the last few months Obama has turned an average deficit of 7 points into a deficit of only 2 or 3 points in the latest polls.

Despite his relatively poor standing in the aforementioned states, there is some good news for the President. Obama is favored to hold at least 5 of 9 states he flipped in 2008. He's headed for a victory of roughly 3 and 6 points in the states of Iowa and Virginia, respectively. The President is in even stronger standings in Colorado and New Mexico where his chances of winning are 76% and 85%, respectively. Lastly, the home of the 2012 Democratic Convention, North Carolina, is marginally favorable to Obama; were we project him winning by 1 point."

Image Link


Obama and Romney split our list of the 18 most competitive states almost evenly; Obama is favored in 8, Romney takes 9 of them and Nevada is tied.

Projected Results in Competitive/Swing States
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #428 on: June 29, 2011, 06:19:09 pm »

That map is a bit of an upset... But I hope Obama will carry some "romney" states in that map like PA, OH and FL.
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« Reply #429 on: June 29, 2011, 07:26:28 pm »

Did Obama chose his new VP yet, or did I miss it somewhere in the thread?

As always, great job and please continue!
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Miles
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« Reply #430 on: June 29, 2011, 08:51:39 pm »

Did Obama chose his new VP yet, or did I miss it somewhere in the thread?

As always, great job and please continue!

The next few posts will deal with the VPs!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #431 on: June 29, 2011, 08:55:26 pm »

As I've said many times before, I love your work, Miles! Well done Smiley
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Kevin
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« Reply #432 on: June 29, 2011, 10:22:56 pm »

That map is a bit of an upset... But I hope Obama will carry some "romney" states in that map like PA, OH and FL.

I'd move North Carolina to lean Republican, and make VA and Florida toss-ups. Also I'd move OH  MI, IA, and CO to toss-up status as well with PA perhaps being slightly Democratic.
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« Reply #433 on: June 30, 2011, 02:36:50 pm »
« Edited: July 01, 2011, 11:37:58 am by MilesC56 »

OBAMA MAKES VP PICK: POPULAR AR GOVERNOR MIKE BEEBE



Politico-

"Today President Obama picked his 2012 Vice Presidential running-mate; Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe. Beebe, elected in 2006, has been among the most well-liked Governors in the state's history. Despite the GOP tide that struck the state in 2008, Beebe was reelected in a landslide, winning by more than 30 points. Since then Beebe has remained very popular; the last poll taken showed that 65% approved of his performance to only 29% who disapprove.

In his announcement speech, Obama cited Beebe's work as a problem-solver within his state. "While searching for a running mate, Mike's record stuck out me. To Mike, there are no such things as 'Democratic ideas or Republican ideas' only 'good ideas' and 'bad ideas.' This centrist approach has outlined his approach to governing. We could use more of that in Washington."

Obama also quipped about Beebe's record as a fiscal conservative. "I'm surprised that the tea party hasn't endorsed him! They want lower taxes and a more efficient government, right!?Then I give you Exhibit A: Governor Beebe!" During his 6-year tenure as Governor, he has drawn dozens of new businesses to Arkansas by reducing taxes on both corporations and individuals. Arkansas' unemployment rate is well under the national rate of 8.0%; it stands at 6.8%.

Governor Beebe himself also expressed enthusiasm about his selection. "Arkansas has a rich tradition of sending Democrats to Washington. For years, out two great Senators, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor, as well as our Congressional Democrats, have done a great job of representing our Arkansan values in the Senate. As I aspire to the President of the Senate, I hope to join them in fighting not only for the people of this state, but for all Americans.

I truly believe that Washington can learn from what we've done here in the Razorback State. During my time as Governor, I tried to follow in the footsteps of another giant from Arkansas, President Clinton. I hear this all the time from some Republicans, they ask me: Why are you a Democrat? Democrats are just a bunch of big-spending fiscal liberals who are borrowing us into an oblivion. I tell them: Have you ever heard of Bill Clinton!?"


Beebe went on to emphasize his record of public service. "Throughout my twenty years in politics, two if my prime issues have been education and fiscal conservatism.  While Republicans all over the country are axing their education systems and laying off teachers, I expanded our early education programs and made record investments in our universities and smaller local colleges. As a result, Arkansans will have an edge in the job market for decades to come. In bringing my perspective to the table, I hope to duplicate this on the national level. Also, while most states are in the fiscal red, I've worked with the Legislature kept Arkansas going strong. Our country faces real challenges that will extend far beyond this election cycle. As Vice President, I will bring my agenda for jobs and education to Washington."


Despite Obama's selection, it remains to be seen whether he will ultimately be able to carry the state's 6 electoral votes. Ever since the days of Bill Clinton, Arkansas has aggressively trended Republican.  In 2008, McCain won there 59-39. In 2010, Democrats lost control of the states Congressional delegation, though Senator Blanche Lincoln narrowly won reelection against a very flawed opponent, Gilbert Baker.

Most pundits agree that in picking Beebe, Obama is aiming to strengthen his standing among Independents and moderate voters rather than playing to the liberal base. MSNBC analysis Chuck Todd maintains that "there could be some backlash from the left here, but Obama really does need to go after those crucial independent and centrist voters. Beebe was a good pick for that." Todd also conjectured about Republican Mitt Romney's selection "I think Romney will take the opposite route and chose a fairly conservative running mate. Most Republicans already view him as slightly liberal, so a more conservative VP choice could help him secure his ranks within his own party."

Romney is slated to make his VP choice next week."
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #434 on: June 30, 2011, 02:39:07 pm »

Arkansas could flip with a weaker nominee, but with Romney as the GOP nominee, I can't see it flipping unless he chooses a moderate as his VP, and even then, it'd be close.

My guess is this pick won't be taken to well in the far-left of the party, who already aren't too happy with Obama.
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Miles
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« Reply #435 on: July 04, 2011, 10:35:16 pm »

GOP TICKET EMERGES WITH ROMNEY VP CHOICE:  SEN. JOHN THUNE


Politico-

"With Obama's choice of Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe last week, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney today made his VP selection. Senator John Thune, who has represented  South Dakota for 8 years thus far in the Senate and 6 in the House, will join Romney on the GOP ticket. Like his Democratic counterpart, Governor Beebe, Thune is hugely popular among his constituents; the last poll showed Thune with a whopping 63/29 approval rating.

In his speech, Romney emphasized Thune's strong electoral record as well as his accomplishments in the Senate. "I believe the ultimate barometer for anyone in public service is their relationship with the people they represent. John Thune has always kept the values of the people of South Dakota with him. For 6 years, John represented South Dakota in the People's House; during those years, he was always elected in landslides. Then, in 2002, he decided to run for Senate. After a brutal campaign, John lost the closest Senate election in state history. After that loss, he could have easily given up. But that's not John. In 2004, he came back stronger than ever, as he became the first candidate in 52 years to oust a sitting Party Leader in the Senate. I truly admire this persistence to do the right thing.

Since becoming a member of the Senate, he quickly emerged as a leader within the Republican caucus on a number of issues ranging from taxes, to agriculture, to foreign policy and to transportation. He has been a powerful voice for responsible spending and commonsense reforms. Even as he has become one of the most influential conservatives within the Senate, he has never lost touch with the people who sent him there. In fact, last election cycle, no one even filled to challenge him!

I chose John because he represents a fresh approach to responsible, conservative governance. He will be a Vice President for all generations. While he has done an excellent job representing his constituents, the positive results of John's work in the Senate have rippled  well past the prairies of South Dakota. His legislative experience will be an invaluable asset to the Republican ticket. "


Thune responded. "When Governor Romney asked me to run as Vice President, I knew that my county was calling me. I couldn't be more excited that this opportunity was afforded to me. While this a great time to be a Republican, our country faces challenges. Working with Governor Romney, our administration's prime focus will be to expand the private sector and to create a more efficient federal government. I have fought for jobs and smaller government during my time in the Senate and I will do the same in by using my influence as Vice President.

I would encourage Americans, over these next few months to examine my record. Because of the pro-growth policies that I have fostered, along with other Republicans in my state, South Dakota has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. As Vice President, I will make sure that every state state will enjoy prosperity."


With both major party tickets set, campaign season will fully ensue. The Democratic and Republican Conventions, respectively in Charlotte and Tampa, will take place in roughly a month."
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« Reply #436 on: July 05, 2011, 06:30:51 pm »

29 AUGUST 2012

DEMS MAKE 2012 PITCH IN THE QUEEN CITY; HOST GOV. PERDUE: "THIS IS OUR CHANCE"


As the 2012 Democratic National Convention kicked into gear, top Democrats aimed to use this opportunity to remind voters what President Obama and Democrats have accomplished since 2008. At the same, many speakers at the Convention took the time to attack the Republican ticket. However, one obviously common theme throughout the convention was the need to reelect President Obama. Governor Bev Perdue said "ever since Charlotte was selected, I was intent on making this the most memorable party convention in recent history" and that she would use it to "showcase the progress that North Carolina has made under President Obama's policies." "Working with Mayor Foxx and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, we left no stone unturned. This convention will offer Democrats an excellent chance to show the nation what our party offers."


The keynote speaker, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico, who is running for Senate, also gave a most impressive performance. While he praised Obama's record, he also blasted the Republican Party. "At this critical point in our history, we cannot afford to go back to another Republican administration. I can say with confidence that no other President in recent history has done more to help our children, our immigrants, our working class and our veterans than Barack Obama. America, we've come too far in these last four years to throw in the towel on progress in change. The goal of a Romney/Thune administration will be simple: accelerate wealth to the top at the expense of everyone else. Thats what their core philosophy has been for decades. Thats what Republican Governors across the country are trying to do. We Demcorats know that this approach doesn't work. Thats why Barack Obama has given record tax cut to our hardworking middle class, not the wealthiest few."

Lujan also pointed out Obama's record investments in renewable energy through programs such as his 2009 stimulus package and other initiatives. "In these four years, what has impressed me most about the Obama administration its investments in clean, renewable energy sources. Remember the petro-dictators that governed our country from 2000 to 2008!? We cannot go back to that! In New Mexico, thanks to both federal and local efforts, we have found new ways to harness wind and solar power to meet the needs of our ever-growing population. We have been leading the way in finding new and sustainable energy sources. Because of our work and research in this sector, New Mexicans are turning profits and beating the national recession. Thats a model that works. On this issue, Barack Obama is right and Mitt Romney is wrong!

Because of the bold steps President Obama took in his stimulus programs, 20,000 people in my district and over 52,000 people in the state of New Mexico have gone back to work; thousands more have kept their jobs. Thats the change that we can believe in. This is why Barack Obama is right and Mitt Romney is wrong! While my state is going strong on the way to recovery, with an unemployment rate of 5.5%, there is much work left to be done. America needs Barack Obama and Mike Beebe to continue this upward trend of job creation and innovation!"



Other than the keeping Obama in the White House, Democrats' primary goal is to maintain their control of of the Senate; they currently hold just a 51-49 majority. As such, the DNC also featured many Democratic Senate candidate from across the country. Former Sen. Russ Freingold, Rep. Dina Titus and Sen. Jon Tester, who are all running for Senate in swing states, emphasized the importance of keeping the Upper House.

Feingold, a hero to the progressives, bashed the Republicans who control his state. "The Republicans wanted Wisconsin to be their test case for what they plan to do if they win this year. Under their control, Wisconsin has gone backward to the nineteenth century. Our out-of-control Legislature and our puppet Governor have taken away rights from our middle class in the name of pushing a radical agenda. This cannot be the case for the country. If anyone out there in on the fence and doesn't know how they'll vote next year, do yourself a favor and look at the Wisconsin Republicans. If I am elected to the Senate again, I will work to do whatever I can to curtail the effects of the Citizens United case. Giving corporations the same rights as people helped enable many Republicans across our country to get elected in 2010 and push their extreme agendas."

"In Nevada, we're still suffering from the Bush Administration," Titus claimed. "As a result of the reckless Republican financial policies and lack of oversight, the crash in the housing market has caused our unemployment rate to skyrocket and the values of our homes to decline. While President Obama and Leader Reid have promoted stimulus policies which gotten our local employers to begin hiring again, we cannot afford to hand power back over to Republicans."

Finally, in his speech, Senator Tester tried to appeal to centrists . "As a pro-gun westerner, I might not agree with my party on everything, but I know that we Democrats are the party of the common man. I believe that President Obama has seen how we do business in Montana and knows the needs of our people. Working together, our Democratic Governor, Brian Schwietzer and our Republican legislature, have posted the greatest surpluses in our states history. In Montana, we know that working together is more important than trying to tear each other down. Thats how I try to work in the Senate and the President has tried to be similarly bipartisan in his outreach to Congressional Republicans. Still, while bipartisanship is necessary, there are some critical areas, such as taxes and spending, where we disagree, that is why Democrats must retain the Senate."

President Obama is scheduled to speak tomorrow.
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Miles
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« Reply #437 on: July 06, 2011, 12:33:59 pm »

30 AUGUST 2012

OBAMA AT DNC: "LOOK HOW FAR WE'VE COME"


"Thank you Democrats. Thank you Charlotte.

I stand here in front of America to call for a renewed effort for change and progress. To build upon the foundation of what we have already achieved a a country. Tonight, our nation faces a critical juncture. We all know that our country faces many challenges.

Still, as a people, we have always been able to outlast our travails and survive our hardships. I believe that while we have always taken pride in our robust, independent spirit, that government can serve as a force of real and permanent good. Just look at our history. We believe, in the words of our first Republican president, Abraham Lincoln, that through government, we should do together what we cannot do as well for ourselves.  And so weíve built a strong military to keep us secure, and public schools and universities to educate our citizens.  Weíve laid down railroads spanning thousands of miles and highways to facilitate travel and commerce. Weíve supported the work of scientists and researchers whose discoveries have saved lives, unleashed repeated technological revolutions, and led to countless new jobs and entire industries.  Each of us has benefitted from these investments, and we are a more prosperous country as a result.

Part of this American belief that we are all connected also expresses itself in a conviction that each one of us deserves some basic measure of security.  We recognize that no matter how responsibly we live our lives, hard times or bad luck, a crippling illness or a layoff, may strike any one of us. So, we've  constructed programs like Medicare and Social Security, which guarantee us health care and a measure of basic income after a lifetime of hard work; unemployment insurance, which protects us against unexpected job loss; and Medicaid, which provides care for millions of seniors in nursing homes, poor children, and those with disabilities.  We are a better country because of these commitments.  Throughout my administration, I've strived to build on these achievements.

....Because of the legislation I enacted with Congress in the first part of my term, a severe recession was curtailed.  Millions of Americans are on track to get affordable, quality healthcare. The mastermind of 9/11 Osama bin Laden, will no longer be terrorizing our world. Our gay men and women in uniform can openly and honestly serve in our armed forces....

...Now, I compel you, America, to look at the other side. The Republican plan for the future is a vision that says even though America canít afford to invest in education or clean energy; even though we canít afford to care for seniors and poor children, we can somehow afford more than $1 trillion in new tax breaks for the wealthy.  Think about it.  In the last decade, the average income of the bottom 90% of all working Americans actually declined.  The top 1% saw their income rise by an average of more than a quarter of a million dollars each.  And thatís who needs to pay less taxes?  They want to give people like me a two hundred thousand dollar tax cut thatís paid for by asking thirty three seniors to each pay six thousand dollars more in health costs?   Thatís not right, and itís not going to happen as long as Iím President.

The fact is, their vision is less about reducing the deficit than it is about changing the basic social compact in America.  As Ronald Reaganís own budget director said, thereís nothing ďseriousĒ or ďcourageousĒ about this plan.  Thereís nothing serious about a plan that claims to reduce the deficit by spending a trillion dollars on tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.  Thereís nothing courageous about asking for sacrifice from those who can least afford it and donít have any clout on Capitol Hill.  And this is not a vision of the America I know...

...America, as my friend Governor Bev Perdue said of this moment in history, this is our chance! We cannot and we will not go back to the horrendous policies that in the past have left our nation financially crippled and stranded on the global chance. This is our time, our chance to continue towards progress and recovery!

Thank you, Democrats! Thank you North Carolina! Thank you Americans!"




And of course, Obama gets and obligatory post-convention poll boost:

Image Link

 
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #438 on: July 06, 2011, 12:55:32 pm »

Keep it coming! I look forward to seeing the results Smiley
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« Reply #439 on: July 07, 2011, 02:08:18 pm »
« Edited: July 07, 2011, 02:20:22 pm by MilesC56 »

GOP TRIES TO MAKE SELL IN TAMPA...RICK SCOTT? RICK, WHO?


As the Democrats wrapped up their Charlotte convention, media cameras now travel down to Tampa, where the Republicans will try to sell their message to millions of viewers. "This will certainly give American voters a good chance to hear from the top leaders and candidates within our party so that they can make a better informed choice this fall" said RNC Chair Reince Priebus. He added "During the course of this convention, we will highlight the real and substantive differences that make Republicans the party better suited to lead. We have a plethora of new candidates and officeholders who were elected in 2010. I have not doubt that their stories will inspire voters to come to the Republican side this fall."

However, one face that was noticeably absent convention events was Florida's Republican Governor, Rick Scott. This stood in stark contrast to Governor Bev Perdue, who played a very central role in organizing and overseeing the Democratic Convection in her state. Many pundits conjectured that top Republicans were trying to marginalize the vastly unpopular Scott. Pollster Tom Jensen agrees with that assessment "He's the least popular Governor in the country. His approvals are under 30%. Even with Republicans, he breaks no better than even in our polls. 'Definitely not someone you'd want to advertise. It makes sense that the Republican leadership would be sidelining him. " Scott's top legislative adviser offered another reason though. "Many pieces of legislation that are key to the Governor's pro-growth agenda are currently up for consideration in the Legislature. His main goal is to ensure his legislation sails smoothly through the Legislature. We regret that the Governor's busy schedule will preclude him from spending much time at the convention."

The keynote speaker was freshman Congressman Chip Cravaack of Minnesota. His speech was  part of an effort by Republicans to showcase the members of their new House freshman class.



In his speech, Cravaack gave an account of his own uphill election battle. "Dozens of Republicans like me earned the trust of our constituents in 2010 and we were sent to do our people's work in Congress. I think I speak for most of my colleagues when I say that I know what it feels like to be counted out. When I announced my candidacy against an influential, seemingly infallible-term incumbent, no one thought I could win. On the campaign trail, they'd tell me "Chip, you know, Oberstar is unbeatable. He even beat a former Senator who ran against him! This is a blue district!" But thanks to the grassroots support from a powerful, energized movement of ordinary people who wanted a voice in Washington, I was elected, along with many promising new conservative leaders.
At the local level, Republicans were also swept into power in Minnesota as they took both houses of our Legislature. Thanks to an effort headed by another one of our great Congressman, Michelle Bachmann and a passionate outpouring of concerned voters, we turned Minnesota red.  My friends, this is a good time to be a Republican!
But, of course, this isn't about the past or this isn't about any one state. We know that America must elect Mitt Romeny and John Thune this November. They will put an end to one of the most reckless, irresponsible administrations that we've seen in a generation! Mitt's experience as a Governor combined with John's years of legislating at the local and national levels will be exactly what our country needs at this vital chapter in our history!"


He also criticized the ramifications of Obama's policies on his district and on the country, specifically regarding agricultural and foreign policy matters. "The Cap-and-Trade agenda being championed by Democrats will strangle the farmers, dairy workers and miners in my district. The effects of this legislation are driving up the operation costs on the workers and farmers of my district and throughout the country. The taxes that are imposed on our workers must be lifted at once if we are to be competitive market force. Mitt Romney will understands that these policies are hurting America's businesses. He knows that dependence on the federal government is not healthy for anyone! Again, I think I speak for many of us when I say that this administration is leaving rural America behind! Senator Thune is from a rural state himself and he will bring a pro-agriculture perspective to a new Republican administration.
As a pilot in the navy, I helped defend my country.
The way that Obama weakens our global standing and apologizes to our enemies is disgraceful. We need a new, more efficient foreign policy that recognizes American exceptionalism, as well as strong commitment to men and women like me who serve. Mitt Romney understands this and he will not be conceding anything to other countries."


Three of the most well-received speakers where Rep. Kristi Noem, Rep. Tim Scott and Congressional candidate Ilario Pantano.


"As a South Dakotan, I was thrilled when my Senator, John Thune, was chosen to run for Vice President" Noem said. "I've worked with him, I've campaigned with him and I can tell you, he's ready to lead.What a great choice Governor Romney made! A Romney-Thune Administration will value the priorities of our working heartland citizens over the whims of the union-heads or the city machines. As I battle in Congress for my constituent, it will be great to have a President that actually supports me!
What Republicans have done in South Dakota will be am example for the entire country. By lowering taxes and crafting legislation to foster the individualistic spirit if our people, our state has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the county and our finances are going steady. Thats conservative leadership that makes a difference!"


"Now, contrary to what many liberals think, just because I'm of a certain race or look a certain way doesn't mean you can just put me in an ideological box" Scott maintained.  "I was part of a wave of true conservative candidates who were elected in the great state of South Carolina in 2010; as a result, 4 of the 6 members of the South Carolina House delegation are fresh, new Constitutionalists. During our time in Congress, our delegation has helped bring conservative, tea party values to Congress. We called for steep spending cuts and were a driving force in the effort to repeal Obamacare."

Pantano, who is running in a rematch against North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntrye, seemed to channel Sen. Marco Rubio. "Now, my father came here from Italy. As he started out here, here he of course didn't have much. But, the values that where instilled in him by his family, persistence, self-motivation and independence, are the same parameters that I live by. On a side note, I must admit that, as an Italian-American American, I'm embarrassed that the first Speaker of the House of Italian heritage was Nancy Pelosi! With your help, we will make sure that Pelosi does not get her gavel back and we will put an end to Harry Reid's disastrous tenure as Senate Majority Leader!
In 2010, I nearly toppled an 8-term incumbent. Before last year, Congressman Mike McIntyre was rarely elected with anything less than 70%. I came within 7 points of defeating him. This time, I know that I will be successful, along with several other outstanding conservatives who are in close races. With a Romney-Thune ticket, our campaigns will only be strengthened!"


Romney will speak tomorrow.
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« Reply #440 on: July 07, 2011, 03:30:35 pm »

Good tl, and ftr it's been included in the Timeline Index. Smiley
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« Reply #441 on: July 08, 2011, 12:09:51 pm »

^^^ Thanks!
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« Reply #442 on: July 09, 2011, 03:44:31 pm »

ROMNEY: WE'RE "AT THE CUSP OF A STRONGER COUNTRY"


"Thank you Republicans! Thank you Florida! Thank you America!

My friends, today we stand here with two clear routes ahead of us. I don't have to tell any of you that, if we continue along our current road, our country will continue to grow weaker; it will continue to be subjected the mercy of a liberal philosophy that brought so many other countries to their knees. I promise to make bold, fresh changes if I am elected President. More than anything, our county needs a leader in the White House; a leader who wakes up every single day fighting for jobs.

...I know that even though America the most wealth and influence in the world, that is not where its greatness originates. America's greatness can be derived from our system of self-rule. A system that accounts for the free spirit of our people and demands that our government be accountable to the American people. Americans, every four years, you decide who will steer the ship of state as Commander-in-Chief. Though we all come from different backgrounds, we all believe in America. Tonight, I'm asking you believe in a new course for our country.

While we all share a common love for our country, I'd venture to say that we all share a common concern for our country. America is in peril; our people and institutions are being tested like never before.

In 2008, we elected someone with a clean slate, we wished him well, and hoped for the best. This time, we have more than empty slogans or rhetorical platitudes to judge Barack Obama by. He has failed America. When he took over, we were facing a recession. Since then, he has prolonged our nation's suffering and only exacerbated the economy's fall. The numbers speak for themselves: unemployment stands at 8.0% and roughly 13 million Americans don't have a job. Our families are being smothered by high food and gas prices. Our debt has climbed astronomically. This November, I'm counting on you, Americans, through our system on democracy to chart a new course.

...Let me be clear: A Romney Administration will stand up for the needs of our everyday, average Americans who work hard and play by rules. Because of the plans that I am proposing, under a my administration, you won't wonder whether your children will have a better life than you did; you'll know. This confidence for a better tomorrow is what binds us together as a people. I will work to ensure that every one in this great county will have a better days ahead.

To address our massive debt, I will cap federal spending at 20 percent or less of the GDP and finally, finally balance the budget. My generation will pass the torch to the next generation, not a bill. It is simply the right thing to do for our children.

I will insist that Washington learns to respect the Constitution. We will return responsibility and authority to the states for dozens of government programs -- and that begins with a complete repeal of Obamacare. From my first day in office, my No. 1 job will be to see that America once again is No. 1 in job creation. We must send more conservative, pragmatic values to Wasgington.

....America, we are on the cusp on a new day, a better tomorrow. I'm asking you to believe in it. With your vote, you will send a clear message to Washington and the world this fall!Thank you!




Romney's post-convention poll bounce:



A few other notes:

I think I'll skip the Presidential debates for this TL...too much work and time! I'll do 1 more round of 538 predictions for President/Senate/House and then I'll start rolling out 2012 results!
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« Reply #443 on: July 11, 2011, 12:33:34 pm »


DEMS HAVE 96% CHANCE OF RETAINING SENATE

Nate Silver/538.com-

"With President Obama in a close contest with Governor Romney, one assurance that Democrats will have going into election day is that they will likely keep the Senate. In fact, our models forecast a 96% that the Senate will stay in Democratic hands. Why is this the case? Well, Democrats have improved their standing in several pivotal races.

Essentially, the President's party is likely to pickup a trio of seats in the Northeast. In Connecticut, a seat which should probably have never been in GOP hands anyway, Linda McMahon remains an underdog to Rep. Jim Himes. Himes, despite running a generally poor campaign, is a 61.8% favorite to win.
In Massachusetts, Vicki Kennedy has built leads on Sen. Scott Brown in most recent polls; still, Mr. Brown is not one to be underestimated. Even so, Ms. Kennedy has keeps a 55% chance of winning.
Finally, in what could be the closest contest in the nation, former Governor Jon Corzine takes a slim lead over interim Senator Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey. While NJ is a blue state and will probably go for Obama by double-digits, LoBiondo, while in the House, consistently won a Democratic district by quite comfortable margins. We give Corzine only a 50.2% chance of winning to LoBiondo's 49.8%.

The other seat likely to flip from Republicans is that of Nevada. Democrat Dina Titus is a strong favorite to defeat tea party Republican Sharron Angle, a deeply flawed and highly controversial candidate. While Angle initially looked competitive, she has made a series of gaffes since she ousted Sen. John Ensign in the primary. Titus has a 89% chance of victory compared to Angle's 11%.

Other states where Democrats have improved include ND, OH and MO. Senator Kent Conrad, who has faced only one close race in his career, has pulled away from Governor Jack Dalrymple. Senator Sherrod Brown has moved past State AG Mary Taylor to become a slim favorite, at 58%. Finally, Senator Claire McCaskill has expanded her lead on challenger Sarah Steelman; she's up from a 57% chance of victory to 68%.

Republicans have had a lock on the open Nebraska seat ever since popular Governor Dave Heineman declared his candidacy.

In the closely-watched Utah race, we regard Senator Hatch as a slight favorite, with a 57% chance of victory to challenger Jason Chaffetz's 43%. Regardless of the outcome here, this Utah seat will nonetheless remain in the Republican caucus.

In conclusion, our forecast projects that, when all the electoral dust settles, Democrats will control 54 Senate seats to 46 for Republicans. If Republicans have a good night, they could control as many as 49 seats; conversely Democrats could end up controlling as many as 56 seats. While this is certainly good news for the President and Majority Leader Reid, the House is quite a different story...


Projected Senate Election Results:

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #444 on: July 11, 2011, 03:12:17 pm »

Pretty good, though this scenario is obviously very pro-Democratic. Wink Keep it up!
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« Reply #445 on: July 11, 2011, 04:15:49 pm »
« Edited: July 11, 2011, 06:27:32 pm by MilesC56 »


GOP 85% LIKELY TO KEEP HOUSE

Our final House forecast, we can conjecture that the Republicans will hold onto the House by a 15-seat margin. Why are Democrats picking up so many seats? Well, after the 2010 elections, Republican nearly "maxed out" their number of winnable seats. After the census, many new seats, such as those in Texas, South Carolina, and Florida, went to the Republicans. Thus, the GOP was able to gain seats simply from redistricting. However, Democrats are still projected to defeat a number of GOP incumbents; this will neutralize and even reverse some of the gains Republicans made from redistricting (such as races in West Virginia and Montana).

(I'm not going to go through every single race; I'll cover the important races when I post the results!)


Democratic Gains [20] : (name of projected winner)
CA-03 (Bera) , WY-AL (Freudenthal), MT-AL (Schweitzer), CO-04 (Markey), MN-08 (Richard), WI-07 (Lassa), AR-02 (Halter), LA-05 (Jackson), FL-22(Frankel), FL-25(Garcia), WV-01 (Oliverio), WV-02 (Goodwin), NC-02 (Marshall), NJ-02 (Kiurkowski), NH-02(Kuster), IL-17(Hare), IL-08(Bean), IL-10 (Shayman), IL-14 (Foster), PA-07(Sestak)

Republican Gains [3]:
IA-03(Latham), IN-02 (Walorski), GA-02 (Keown)

OVERALL SEAT COUNT:
REPUBLICANS: 225
DEMOCRATS: 210


-For simplicity's sake, no newly created/eliminated seats are listed here (ex. TX-36, LA-07)

-Due to continuing lawsuits, the North Carolina Congressional districts will not change. Rather, a new court-drawn map will be in place for the 2014 cycle.
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InvisibleTrump
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« Reply #446 on: July 11, 2011, 04:20:03 pm »



NOOOOO!


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« Reply #447 on: July 11, 2011, 05:09:51 pm »

excellent updates, miles!!



YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES!
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« Reply #448 on: July 11, 2011, 05:16:44 pm »

I updated my last House 538 post so that the districts have projected winners...'should give some hints about the final result!
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« Reply #449 on: July 12, 2011, 11:30:48 am »
« Edited: July 12, 2011, 04:03:02 pm by MilesC56 »


CONTEST FOR PRESIDENT VERY CLOSE

"As we round out this election, our final forecast is about as close as it could be. The President clings to a bare 270 electoral votes, as he holds only a 2-point advantage over Governor Romney; quite a far cry from his 192-point blowout in 2008. Still, with the electoral math winding up this close, any swing state could tilt the balance towards either Obama or Romney. Based on our math, Obama's 'ceiling' would be around 339 electoral votes to Romney's 199; this would be similar to his 2008 scenario. Likewise, Romney's high-water mark would be 328 votes to Obama's 210. Both of these scenarios are unlikely, as they would require one candidate to sweep nearly every swing state.

Three states that have moved into play most recently are IA, MO and AR. While the Presidential candidates have limited appeal in these states, the Vice-Presidential candidates have campaigned there frequently. Obama has dispatched Mike Beebe to campaign in AR and MO, while Senator Thune has done well in making IA competitive. Our forecast shows Romney sweeping these states. His chances are 51.3% in IA, 53.2% in MO and 54.7% in AR. While Arkansans love Mike Beebe, Obama's place on the ticket is still keeping some Arkansans from voting for one of their own.

Still, if Mike Beebe doesn't help Obama chance's of carrying AR, he has helped Obama reach out to Independent voters; since choosing Beebe, Obama has gained over 10 points with them, essentially breaking even with Romney. Senator Thune has likewise helped shore-up conservative enthusiasm for Romney. Our popular vote projection has Obama winning by a close 50.3% to 48.8%.

Obama has also made modest progress in Nevada where he's up to a 53.1% chance of winning. During these last weeks, his campaign has tried, with some success, to tie Governor Romney to his party's Senate candidate, Sharron Angle, who most Nevada voters see as extreme or unelectable. Still, Romney's prowress in states such as PA, OH and FL, all which voted Democratic last cycle, should worry Obama.

All in all, Tuesday shouldn't be a boring election night!"

CHANCE OF WINNING:
OBAMA: 52.1% (270 EV)
ROMNEY: 47.9% (268 EV)

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Projections for Competitive States:
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