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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Kalwejt, Apocrypha)
  2011 and Beyond...
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Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 130697 times)
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #450 on: July 12, 2011, 01:33:21 pm »

O-B-A-M-A!!!!!
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Barnes
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« Reply #451 on: July 12, 2011, 07:46:45 pm »

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #452 on: July 12, 2011, 09:04:18 pm »

R-O-M-N-E-Y!!!!
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #453 on: July 13, 2011, 05:07:44 am »

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #454 on: July 13, 2011, 09:00:22 am »

Two can play this game. Tongue
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sentinel
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« Reply #455 on: July 13, 2011, 10:15:36 am »

Bloomberg! >_>
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #456 on: July 13, 2011, 11:02:49 am »


Hahahaha...

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #457 on: July 13, 2011, 11:14:00 am »

Wink
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Miles
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« Reply #458 on: July 13, 2011, 02:36:09 pm »

I'm glad everyone seems to be enthusiastic!
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InvisibleTrump
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« Reply #459 on: July 13, 2011, 02:39:21 pm »

The reason I love this timeline is its attention to detail and realism.
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HST1948
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« Reply #460 on: July 13, 2011, 03:01:23 pm »

The reason I love this timeline is its attention to detail and realism.
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Miles
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« Reply #461 on: July 13, 2011, 05:51:29 pm »
« Edited: July 13, 2011, 06:25:36 pm by MilesC56 »

ELECTION NIGHT 2012

Some election night music!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwoRVxmmH0o


Rachel: Good evening America! Tonight is a night that will be apex of the intense 2012 campaign! I'm back with my colleague Chris Matthews in MSNBC election headquarters as we try to make sense of what will no doubt be a critical night in American history.

Chris: Thats right, Rachel. Tonight will be a very, very important night. Governor Romney has pulled within striking distance of the President. We'll have a roller-coaster of a Presidental race, maybe even as close as the 2000 election, plus a good number of Senate and House seats up for grabs.

Rachel: And well even have a good number of closely-watched Governor's and local elections to talk about as well. Tonight could fundamentally transform the direction of American politics for the next few years, even the next few decades; as policies and choices of tonight's winner, like Supreme Court nominees and fiscal polices, will have ramifications that will last well beyond the next few election cycles.

Chris: And Rachel, at 7:00 Eastern Time, it looks like we have our first batch of results in! These are from the state of Vermont. Vermont has become a Democratic stronghold and our numbers confirm this. In the Presidential race, Obama will easily be winning Vermont; its such a liberal state that not even a moderate Republican like Romney could crack 35% there anymore.


Rachel: And on top of Obama's 35-point win, we have 2 other Democratic winners. In the Governor's race, Peter Shumlin, who is best known for his efforts for a single-payer healthcare system, will be comfortably reelected over former Auditor Tom Salmon. With Shumlin's reelection, Vermont will have a single-payer system as early as next year.  
On the Senate side, there wasn't much action. Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, among the Senate's strongest progressive voices, has no major party opposition and will get about 92%.


Rachel: We also have most of the results from the Bluegrass State reporting. While Republicans have done poorly there at the state level recently, their Presidential candidates have done well. Tonight is no exception; it gives 8 electoral votes to Governor Romney. Romney will be carrying the state by about 13 points. These results from Kentucky are very similar to the last 2008 election, where Obama lost there by 16 to Senator McCain.

Chris: If Democrats want to build up there nationwide strategy, they have to stop permanently conceding these states like Kentucky. The Clintons have always done well there, Obama has done next to nothing there. I mean even in the local off-year election last year, Governor Beshear and the Democrats stomped the Republicans.

Rachel: But, lets not forget, while Kentucky may be a Democratic state, its still a conservative state. I think Obama's choice of Governor Beebe was an attempt to reach out to these centrist or conservative-minded Democrats who see Obama as too liberal. While Beebe may help Obama in other swing states, his dividends in Kentucky are fairly meager, as Obama only did slightly better there this year than in 2008.  Plus, a lot of voters in Appalachia see Obama as anti-coal and therefore anti-jobs.

Chris: Thats right. In these Appalachian states, coal is king. Still, I think with the right candidate, Kentucky could go back to the Democrats.


Maddow: Moving just north, we have our first look at Indiana. Don't be fooled by Romney's wide 17-point lead. Only 42% of all ballots are counted; a good portion of the outstanding ballots will be coming from Democratic-leaning areas. Therefore, as of now, our official wording for the Presidential race here is that is "too early to call."


Chris: It looks like two other races from Indiana are all but over though. We do have most Senate and Governor's results out. Senator Dick Lugar, one of the great elder statesmen of Indiana, who narrowly pushed back a tea party challenge in the primary will cruise to another term in the Sanate. He will be winning by nearly 40 points over Democrat Jill Thompson. Also, the AP is also in the Governor's race. Congressman Mike Pence will defeat former Congressman Brad Ellsworth by about 8 points.


Rachel: Could Indiana set the tone for other vital industrial Midwest States? As we take a quick break, I would encourage our viewers to stay tuned. We will have full results from Indiana and many, many more races very soon!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #462 on: July 13, 2011, 07:38:10 pm »

One nitpick - there is absolutely no way Ellsworth would beat Pence in Clay or Greene County. I know because that's where I live! Tongue Ellsworth would probably carry it if he won by a decent margin, but not losing by 8 points.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #463 on: July 13, 2011, 08:12:20 pm »


you almost won. congratulations, "a person".

Now, let's be serious. Miles, this TL is incredible, perfect, simple to understand, easy to read, detailed... You've done a great job. Thanks, and congratulations!
Continue, please Wink
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #464 on: July 13, 2011, 09:46:15 pm »

One nitpick - there is absolutely no way Ellsworth would beat Pence in Clay or Greene County. I know because that's where I live! Tongue Ellsworth would probably carry it if he won by a decent margin, but not losing by 8 points.

I had to give you something to call me out on Wink
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #465 on: July 13, 2011, 09:56:35 pm »

One nitpick - there is absolutely no way Ellsworth would beat Pence in Clay or Greene County. I know because that's where I live! Tongue Ellsworth would probably carry it if he won by a decent margin, but not losing by 8 points.

I had to give you something to call me out on Wink
And here I was, being so nice and giving Landrieu a victory in my timeline...Sad

*Runs to edit results*
Wink
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Cath
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« Reply #466 on: July 13, 2011, 10:11:48 pm »

Great tl. Besides "go Romney", that's all I gotta say. Great tl.
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bore
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« Reply #467 on: July 14, 2011, 10:00:59 am »


you almost won. congratulations, "a person".

Now, let's be serious. Miles, this TL is incredible, perfect, simple to understand, easy to read, detailed... You've done a great job. Thanks, and congratulations!
Continue, please Wink
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #468 on: July 14, 2011, 01:30:40 pm »
« Edited: July 14, 2011, 02:28:03 pm by MilesC56 »

IN TIGHTENS, GA CALLED, CLOSE HOUSE RACES

Rachel: Welcome back to our live election night coverage here on MSNBC. As my friend Chris and I try to sift through the returns we have so far, several important races for the House have come in since our break.

Chris: Thats right, Rachel. We have one more closely-watched race from Indiana. Congressman Joe Donnelly is in a real barn-burner of a rematch a against Jackie Walorski. Republicans were able to nab 2 Democratic seats in 2010 and take control of its House delegation, but they fell short against Donnelly up in the South Bend area. Looks like tonight the result will be just as close.
Also, as results from Georgia start to trickle in we have another House rematch, we'll actually have quite a few of these rematches because so many of the 2010 races were very close. Congressman Sanfors Bishop is clinging to a .7% lead over State Legislator Mike Keown. In the newly created Georgia 14th, former Athens mayor Heidi Davison is also deadlocked with State Senator Johnny Grant. Davison was a very popular mayor, but Grant has also been solidly reelected many times to the State Senate.
With 57% reporting in Indiana and 48% of Georgia in, we're not going to call any of these.

Image Link

Rachel: And all three of those House races were impacted by the redistricting process. Donnelly's old district went for Obama by about 9 points; his new district would be very close to even. Clearly, the Republicans who control Indiana tried to weaken him and favor Walorksi. Donnelly has a base in South Bend which may ultimately deliver for him. Still, the district moved quite bit towards the Republicans.
In George, the 2nd district became only slightly more Republican. The real drama in Georgia was the new 14th. Republicans thought that if they created a new, swing district in eastern-central Georgia, they could weaken Congressman John Barrow, a Democrat in the neighboring 12th. So far, its looks like Barrow is still up double-digits, in fact, we didn't even feature his district as a race-to-watch.

Chris: Fascinating, fascinating stuff, this redistricting. Its just shows you how many forces at working driving the numbers in these House races. While we can't call either of those Congressional districts, we can call Georgia. With 52% of the Presidential ballots counted, the AP is calling Georgia for Romney. They project that its 16 votes will end up in the Republican column by about 8 points; overall, the President will be doing a little worse this year than he did in 2008.


Rachel: Looking at what the numbers are implying, it seems that Obama's turnout in urban Atlanta was a few ticks under his 2008 performance. That could be a bad sign for Obama as well in for North Carolina, were he won in 2008 thanks to sky-high black turnout. The demographics pretty much fell into place. Obama beat Romney by almost 3-to-1 in Atlanta, while Romney trounced Obama in the northern suburbs and exurbs by about 40-50 points.
Georgia is gradually swinging towards the Democrats, but it will take a few election cycles until it is electoral votes are truly up for grabs.

Chris: We have more returns from Indiana. While Obama has chipped Romney's lead down to 8, 'looks like Romney is holding pretty steady. With 60% reporting, its seems unlikely that Obama pulls this out again.



Rachel: IF we'll excuse us, we must take another break. So far, we have Romney leading Obama in the Electoral College 24-3, when all of Indiana s counted, that would put Romney up 35-3. Will the President be elected, or will America give the levers of power back to the Republicans? Stick around to find out!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #469 on: July 14, 2011, 04:12:13 pm »

ROMNEY SOLIDIFIES IN; VA, SC, FL REPORT

Chris: Welcome back to our coverage in MSNBC. In what has been our first closely contest Presidential state, Indiana will be going to the Republicans. While Obama's 2008 win here was considered somewhat of a fluke by most Republicans operatives and strategists, the GOP nonetheless made sure that this state would not fall to Democrats once again. With 93% of votes counted, we can project that Indiana will fall to Romney by a margin of 52-47. While this margin isn't as bad as Bush's two landslides here, it nonetheless is a blow to Team Obama. This certainly is not good for Obama, who polls show is struggling in this region.


Rachel: Here's more worrisome news for Democrats. The first House pickup of the evening will not be switching from Republican to Democratic hands, rather a Republican will be ousting a Democrat. In that close IN-02 race, the AP projects that Congressman Donnelly will not be able to overcome Walorski's lead. For him to win, there would need to be a catastrophic Republican collapse in St. Joseph and Starke counties. While Donnelly is underperforming in his new Republican counties,  Walorski is controlling the bleeding in the Democratic counties.

Chris: Very ironic that this seat would be one of the first to flip Republican; Donnelly was a bright spot for Democrats in 2010 in what was otherwise a horrendous night. We do have some good news from Virginia for Obama though. Obama's effort her was very strong and it looks to be paying off tonight. 54% of VA precincts are reporting and, based on where those precincts are coming from, Obama looks like he will ultimately retain the state's 13 electoral votes. The AP projects that when all the votes are counted, Obama will win by 51-47 in Virginia.
However, what is still very close is the colossal Senate race between former Governor Kaine and former Senator Allen. Kaine, of course, has always been a strong ally of the President, but even with 54% of votes in, Kaine looks to be underperforming. He only leads by less than 1 point half of a point.


Rachel: As for Virginia's Congressional seats, there's not much to see. All incumbents are slated to win, resulting in a continuing delegation of 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.  This Virginia win gives the President a much-needed boost in the Electoral College; he now trails 35-16.

Chris: Actually, make that 44-16. South Carolina is reporting and we can put it in the GOP column. Romney wins its 9 votes by 12 points. Of course, Obama was strong in Charleston, Columbia and rural black areas, but he was blown out in the heavily conservative northern and eastern counties.


Rachel: We also have our first numbers from Florida rolling in. This race has the potential to keep us awake all night! With 42% of precincts in, Obama is up by just over a point. Now, I would caution anyone not to look too far into that number. Most of the panhandle counties have yet to report anything; of course these counties are very heavily Republican, so Romney will certainly get a boost there. The question is if Obama can cobble enough votes together in southern Florida to offset the panhandle counties.

Chris: Going into another break, lets recap what we have. At 8:00, polls in many more states just closed. We'll have those results when we return.


ROMNEY: 44
OBAMA: 16
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bloombergforpresident
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« Reply #470 on: July 14, 2011, 05:39:16 pm »

I love it!!
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #471 on: July 14, 2011, 08:30:19 pm »


so do I... but I'm sad with that result in IN-2
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InvisibleTrump
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« Reply #472 on: July 14, 2011, 09:07:43 pm »

Im on the edge of my seat!!
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redcommander
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« Reply #473 on: July 14, 2011, 09:09:21 pm »

This is an amazing timeline. When can we expect another update?
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Miles
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« Reply #474 on: July 14, 2011, 09:49:15 pm »

This is an amazing timeline. When can we expect another update?

I'll try to aim for a few updates per day.
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