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Kevin
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« Reply #475 on: July 14, 2011, 10:32:01 pm »
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ROMNEY SOLIDIFIES IN; VA, SC, FL REPORT

Chris: Welcome back to our coverage in MSNBC. In what has been our first closely contest Presidential state, Indiana will be going to the Republicans. While Obama's 2008 win here was considered somewhat of a fluke by most Republicans operatives and strategists, the GOP nonetheless made sure that this state would not fall to Democrats once again. With 93% of votes counted, we can project that Indiana will fall to Romney by a margin of 52-47. While this margin isn't as bad as Bush's two landslides here, it nonetheless is a blow to Team Obama. This certainly is not good for Obama, who polls show is struggling in this region.


Rachel: Here's more worrisome news for Democrats. The first House pickup of the evening will not be switching from Republican to Democratic hands, rather a Republican will be ousting a Democrat. In that close IN-02 race, the AP projects that Congressman Donnelly will not be able to overcome Walorski's lead. For him to win, there would need to be a catastrophic Republican collapse in St. Joseph and Starke counties. While Donnelly is underperforming in his new Republican counties,  Walorski is controlling the bleeding in the Democratic counties.

Chris: Very ironic that this seat would be one of the first to flip Republican; Donnelly was a bright spot for Democrats in 2010 in what was otherwise a horrendous night. We do have some good news from Virginia for Obama though. Obama's effort her was very strong and it looks to be paying off tonight. 54% of VA precincts are reporting and, based on where those precincts are coming from, Obama looks like he will ultimately retain the state's 13 electoral votes. The AP projects that when all the votes are counted, Obama will win by 51-47 in Virginia.
However, what is still very close is the colossal Senate race between former Governor Kaine and former Senator Allen. Kaine, of course, has always been a strong ally of the President, but even with 54% of votes in, Kaine looks to be underperforming. He only leads by less than 1 point half of a point.


Rachel: As for Virginia's Congressional seats, there's not much to see. All incumbents are slated to win, resulting in a continuing delegation of 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.  This Virginia win gives the President a much-needed boost in the Electoral College; he now trails 35-16.

Chris: Actually, make that 44-16. South Carolina is reporting and we can put it in the GOP column. Romney wins its 9 votes by 12 points. Of course, Obama was strong in Charleston, Columbia and rural black areas, but he was blown out in the heavily conservative northern and eastern counties.


Rachel: We also have our first numbers from Florida rolling in. This race has the potential to keep us awake all night! With 42% of precincts in, Obama is up by just over a point. Now, I would caution anyone not to look too far into that number. Most of the panhandle counties have yet to report anything; of course these counties are very heavily Republican, so Romney will certainly get a boost there. The question is if Obama can cobble enough votes together in southern Florida to offset the panhandle counties.

Chris: Going into another break, lets recap what we have. At 8:00, polls in many more states just closed. We'll have those results when we return.


ROMNEY: 44
OBAMA: 16


Timeline looks very good so far!

However, no way would the VA Senate race be that close if both Loudoun and PW counties went to Kaine. Especially since Kaine would still have a window for even if he still lost those two since he did fairly well for a Democrat down state.
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« Reply #476 on: July 14, 2011, 11:02:46 pm »
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Yeah, I'm not very familiar with Virginia politics Tongue
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« Reply #477 on: July 15, 2011, 05:24:03 pm »
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CRIST, WEST, GRAYSON ELECTED IN FL



Rachel: Going back to key state of Florida, we have a few other important non-Presidential races to call . Democrat Charlie Crist, whose making his third run for the US Senate, is finding that the third time really is a charm. Despite a very close race for President here, the former Governor will actually be defeating his former ally, Republican George LeMieux, fairly comfortably, by Florida standards. Floridians, will be sending Crist to the Senate by about 5 percentage points.


Chris: Crist didn't have much room to win back in 2010. He was too liberal for Republicans, but he had to compete for Democratic votes as well. He was in a tough spot running as an Independent. Now, a true surprise tonight is that Congressman Allen West will be reelected. West's district stayed more or less the same after the Census. It now looks like he'lll be turning back a strong challenge from West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel. 'Another very harsh blow for Democrats as they try to retake the House. Still, West was a tea party favorite and he was able to raise a ton on money; that's probably what pushed him over the top tonight.  


Rachel: Well, don't forget Florida's 22nd is a rather competitive district, so West will probably still be vulnerable in future cycles. Still, an impressive performance by him tonight. Democrats also have a pickup in the 8th district. Alan Grayson, who may be the anti-Allen West, will be heading back to Congress. He defeated his 2008 opponent, Ric Keller. Granted, this district was made into a true Democratic-leaning seat during the redistricting process as its now virtually contained within Orlando, Grayson was also a great fundraiser and he had a motivated liberal base supporting him. So Florida, though a fairly centrist state, will be electing a pair of ideological opposites in Congressman West and Grayson!



(Sorry guys, 'busy day. This was all I could get to. I'll work on more stuff tonight!)
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« Reply #478 on: July 15, 2011, 07:43:16 pm »
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Well Grayson is a small price to pay to keep Allen West---ugh--the fought of Frankel scares me. She was the 3rd pinhead ever mentioned in Bill O'Reillys infamous segment!
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« Reply #479 on: July 15, 2011, 07:44:29 pm »
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This is fantastic! Keep it coming!
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« Reply #480 on: July 16, 2011, 08:33:05 am »
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more updates, please!
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« Reply #481 on: July 16, 2011, 03:45:42 pm »
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DE ROLLS IN, NJ STICKS WITH LOBIONDO, DEMS TAKE BACK MA

Chris: Rachel, it looks like our next batch of numbers will be from Delaware. Democrats have always done very well there and tonight, everything played out as expected. Democrats have swept all races at the top of Delaware ballot. Obama starts out strong with a 22-point blowout. His current VP, Joe Biden, a favorite son of Delaware, is slated to take over the State Department if Obama is reelected. Speaking of Joe Biden, his son, Beau, the current AG there, will be unanimously elected the state's next Governor, no one else even filed to challenge him! Beau is a very promising face in Democratic politics and I'm sure we'll be hearing more about him down the line.

Rachel: And don't forget, Delaware also had a Senate race. Governor Jack Markell, a very popular figure as well, will be defeating one of the most well-known candidates in the county, the infamous Christine O'Donnell, by nearly 50 points! Thats seat is being vacated by Senator Tom Carper. O'Donnell of course gave us much...interesting, odd and bizarre material to discuss on our shows! I wonder if she'll run again! In any case, Delaware's electoral votes are solidly with Obama; unfortunately for him, its only worth 3!


Chris: Next, we move just north to New Jersey. The real story here was the Special Senate election. Last year, Senator Frank Lautenberg had to resign due to his poor health; Governor Christie appointed Congressman Frank LoBiondo to that seat. Even though LoBiondo had held a Democratic-leaning seat for years, he was a prime target of the DSCC. Even so, it looks like LoBiondo will be keeping his Senate seat. He even got an outright majority. 'Pretty impressive.

Rachel: Yes, LoBiondo was one of the better campaigners of this cycle. It is worth noting though, that his opponent, former Governor Jon Corzine was a terrible candidate; his campaign was rather languid and he failed to really excite liberals. The good news for Democrats, though, is that they will get another crack at trying to unseat LoBiondo in 2014. They've learned tonight that they'd be better off running a fresh face against him than trying to bring back an old loser. We'll see who the DSCC comes up with.
It is also worth noting that to keep his seat, LoBiondo ran as one of the most liberal Republicans in the county. He voted with Democrats on many fiscal matters and he has taken stance contrary to his party's leadership on most environmental and social issues. Could he be prone to a tea party challenge in 2014? Very possible.

Chris: Very true. But there is something to be said for a Republican like LoBiondo winning this comfortably in a blue state. At the Presidential level, Obama carried the state by about 13 points, which was about what most pollsters had projected. In the other Senate seat, Senator Bob Menendez, who has always seemed to underperform, will be fending of Congressman John Runyan by about 5 points.


Rachel: We now have results from 2 southern states. A majority of precincts  from the states of Oklahoma and Alabama are in. Obama was never expected to even come close to winning either of these. Though his VP, Mike Beebe, did prove to have some appeal to rural white voters in these states; as Obama's margins are slightly better this time around than in 2008. Still, the 16 electoral votes are head to Romney's column.


Chris: We actually have one interesting race out of Oklahoma, even though Romney won in a landslide. In the 4th district, Congressman Tom Cole faced the closest contest of his career. Former Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins pulled within 6 points of the Congressman. Askins got a lot of help from former Governor Brad Henry, who still is very popular, but fell short. Still, for her to come this far in a ruby red district that gave Romney 65% of the vote is impressive. A rematch could very well be in the works for 2014.

Rachel: We can also call those 2 outstanding Georgia races for Democrats. This comes as much needed boost to House Democrats after they've lost Joe Donnelly and it looks like they'll fall short in their effort to take Senator LoBiondo's old House seat. Mayor Davison in the 14th and Congressman Bishop in the 2nd will be elected in Georgia.


Chris: Now here's a race we've all been waiting for: the Massachusetts Senate contest. Scott Brown shocked the county by winning here in 2010 and Democrats have ever since been hell-bent on getting back Teddy Kennedy's seat. This was one of the most expensive races in the county; both the DSCC and the RSCC poured millions into this race. Well, Vicki Kennedy has unseated Senator Brown. Even though Senator Brown ran a great effort here, Obama was able to carry Kennedy over the finish line. Kennedy, in fact, won by a rather cushy 7 points. I still think we'll be hearing more from Mr. Brown though, he could be good position to run for Governor in 2014 (hint, hint!!). At the beginning of the campaign, some people were even trying to draft you into this race, Rachel!

Rachel: Thats right! I remember that! I'm quite happy with my job right here! I do think we'll be seeing more of Scott Brown though. He could even run for President, or he would be a promising VP choice. But for now, the Kennedy legacy is back in the Bay State. President Obama has carried this state as well. However, since this was Mitt Romney's home state, Obama has done worse her than in 2008, as he has carried Massachusetts' 11 electoral votes with less than 60% of the vote, as some ordinarily Democratic voters here crossed their ballots for their former Governor; Romney still had somewhat of a base left in the eastern portion of the state.


Chris: And with that, we'll take a quick break!
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« Reply #482 on: July 16, 2011, 05:22:40 pm »
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Grayson! Cheesy

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« Reply #483 on: July 16, 2011, 06:38:59 pm »
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Fantastic!!
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« Reply #484 on: July 17, 2011, 05:35:19 pm »
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Its really good. Please continue
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Miles
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« Reply #485 on: July 17, 2011, 11:17:59 pm »
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I'll aim for an update Monday afternoon/evening.
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« Reply #486 on: July 18, 2011, 10:31:04 pm »
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Rachel: We just now received our first results from the quintessential battleground state of Ohio. While these results will be exciting and nervewracking again, I would caution our viewers not to read very far into these numbers. Only 26% of the overall results are in; only 18% of the Cleveland area is in. Most of what we have comes from central Ohio. We only have about 16% of the Senate numbers in, so we'll hold off on that race.


Chris: Very pivotal, Ohio. Very pivotal. Remember, no President since Jack Kennedy has won the White House without Ohio. Our final Ohio results will be a good indicator of the nation as whole. We just got results in from one state which isn't very close though: Maryland. Obama will be winning this Democratic stronghold by about 25 points. In the Senate race, freshman Ben Cardin will be winning in a similar landslide over former Governor Bob Ehrlich. Maryland will be sending Cardin back to the Senate by about 17 points. This is a huge blow to Republicans here; Ehrlich was about as strong as Republicans come in Maryland and the best he could do was lose by double-digits.

Rachel: Yes, Cardin began his Senate career 6 years ago by defeating Maryland's then Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele. That was before his RNC days! Ever since then, I've become pretty good friends with Mr. Steele! haha. And we have one House race here as well. Former Congressman Frank Kratovil will he headed back to the Beltway as he ousts tea party Republican Andy Harris. Harris was another target of redistricting; the Democrats who control Maryland made his district considerably more liberal. With Kratovil's margin of victory, about 6 points, there's no doubt that redistricting played heavily in his favor.


Chris: We now also have results reporting from New Hampshire. Its still close, but from what I can tell, Obama has a lot of ground to make up here. With 41% reporting, he trails Governor Romney by about 4 points. Some liberals still argue that New Hampshire was the state that hurt all Gore most back in 2000; had New Hampshire voted Democratic, like all its New England neighbors did, Gore would have won. But Romney invested a ton of money and resources here, especially in the early days of the campaign. That could very well be paying off tonight.

Rachel: Thats right. Even though its located in the Northeast, New Hampshire has a conservative streak. In the state's House races, we have mixed news for both parties. Democrat Ann Kuster will be knocking off Charlie Bass in the 2nd district. This district was among the biggest heart-breakers for Democrats back in 2010, as Bass won by the skin of his teeth.  However, since then, the electorate quickly soured on Bass and Kuster was able to capitalize on Bass' unpopularity. In the first district, Republican Frank Guinta holding off a challenge from Carroll Shea-Porter, a former Congresswoman. Shea-Porter was not as great as fundraiser or campaigner as Kuster, so that district will be staying red tonight. Governor John Lynch has also been soundly defeating tea party Republican Ovide Lamontagne. Lynch had already gone for a unprecedented 4th term in 2010. But, he has remained so popular that voters have elected him for a fifth time.  



Rachel: And now we have some of the Show-Me State in. Our initial returns show Romney with a lead of 2 points. Even though Missouri stayed GOP in 2008, Democrats dispatched Mike Beebe and Bill Clinton here to make the state competitive again. They campaigned in the southern and northwestern parts of the state trying to draw more rural-minded and centrist voters to their partyís ticket. Only 42% of votes are counted so far, so this could go either way very easily.

Chris: Yep. At first it looked like Obama was going to give up Missouri, but during the last month or so there, he did a lot of campaigner there with Mike Beebe and Senator McCaskill. Speaking of Senator McCaskill, the AP is calling the race in her favor. Sheís leading with 52% of the vote and there seemed to be no real indication that Republican Sarah Steelman will be getting enough votes to take the lead. Steelman is currently standing at 44%. During most of the campaign, McCaskill tried to portray Steelman as something of a fringe candidate. In the Governorís race, Democrat Jay Nixon will also be winning with 54% of the vote to 45% his Republican opponent, Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder.


Chris: Moving one state to the northeast, we have results from the President's home state. Illinois will be giving Obama 60%. Not very surprising. Also, 4 new Democrats will be elected to Congress; this is also a result of the Democratic-led redistricting in Illinois. Democrats have won the 17th with Cheri Bustos, the 8th with Tammy Duckwork, Bill Foster makes a comeback in the 14th and Alexi Giannoulias ran in the 10th and won there. This flips the Illinois House delegation from 11-8 Republican to 12-6 Democratic. A very tough blow to Republicans. Asterisks on the map represent pickups.


Rachel: Rounding out this batch of states will be Mississippi. President Obama and his running mate Mike Beebe also campaigned in the Delta area of this state. They also had help from Governor Gene Taylor. Even so, Governor Romney will be winning the state by about 11 points.
Chris: In the Senate race, incumbent Roger Wicker will also be winning by a similar 12 points against former Congressman Travis Childers. Back years ago, Mississippi sent some Democratic giants to the Senate, like John Stennis and Jim Eastland. Now itís almost impossible for a Democrat to win there, even one as moderate as Childers.
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« Reply #487 on: July 18, 2011, 10:36:02 pm »
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In Missouri, how can some counties not be reporting for the Presidential race but have numbers for Senate and Governor?
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Miles
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« Reply #488 on: July 18, 2011, 10:56:58 pm »
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In Missouri, how can some counties not be reporting for the Presidential race but have numbers for Senate and Governor?

No reason, I just want to keep everyone guessing about the President race!
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« Reply #489 on: July 18, 2011, 11:07:56 pm »
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Advice on PA: Given that Obama now has greater strength in Appalachia, he should win the state even though Romney will improve in the Philly suburbs and Central PA.
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« Reply #490 on: July 18, 2011, 11:17:01 pm »
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Chris: Our first House snapshot shows Republicans with a lead over Democrats. Still, there are 318 races left to be tallied!:


REPUBLICANS: 68
DEMOCRATS: 49
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Miles
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« Reply #491 on: July 19, 2011, 09:29:28 pm »
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318.

So NH, MO, and OH have not been called yet, right?

Sorry. Math error. I was up late posting that...

NH is called for Romney.

OH, MO and FL have not been called.
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« Reply #492 on: July 20, 2011, 06:49:08 pm »
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update soon?
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« Reply #493 on: July 20, 2011, 07:39:12 pm »
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update soon?

Sorry, I'm on a trip (as my avatar suggests).

I'll have one up soon.
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« Reply #494 on: July 23, 2011, 10:51:34 pm »
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FOR DEMS, NEWS GOOD IN WV, MIXED IN ME

Chris: Welcome back to election night here on MSNBC! Now we're going to a state that Democrats have traditionally done well in: West Virginia. The Mountain State has been one of the most reliably Democratic states throughout the twentieth century, voting for both Carter twice and Dukakis, even though they both lost. But its seems recently Democrats have let this state slip away. Is that the case tonight Rachel?

Rachel:Well, yes and no Chris. Republicans will be holding onto the state's 6 Electoral Votes, but Democrats will be winning virtually every other important race here. With almost 90% of precincts in, Romney will win the state by about 11 points.
As far as the Senate race, Senator Joe Manchin, who was an extremely popular Governor, will be cruising past Republican John Raese in a rematch. Raese was a favorite tea party candidate of Sarah Palin, but he just couldn't beat Manchin. So, Robert Byrd's old seat will stay Democratic for at least the next 6 years.
In the Governor's race, acting Governor Earl Ray Tomblin will shock the nation by keeping his job. He was considered the underdog to Rep. Shelley Moore Capito for most of the race. Tomblin did run an excellent campaign and he had help on the trail from Senator Manchin and Former President Clinton, who was always popular in West Virginia.


Chris: We also have a trio of House races to report on. As you said, Democrats have made major gains here, especially in the House. West Virginia's House delegation will do a complete flip from 2-1 Republican to 3-0 Democratic. In the first district, State Senator Mike Oliverio ousts incumbent David McKinley, who won by 1400 votes in 2010. Looks like Manchin's strong coattails really put Oliverio over the top. In the 2nd district, former (interim) Senator Carte Goodwin flips Capito's open seat. Goodwin also had help from Bill Clinton. Goodwin will be defeating perennial GOP candidate Jay Wolfe. Finally, Nick Rahall, who has been representing the southern coal fields since the Carter days, goes without an opponent. Well, if Democrats are giving away West Virginia's electoral votes, at least they're keeping its Congressional delegation.


Rachel: Moving up the north, we can report that the President is in a perilous situation in Maine. While Obama is ahead the cumulative total, we can report that Romney will likely be taking at least of one of the state's split electoral votes. The swingy 2nd district will be going to the Governor. However, Obama's margin in the other 1st district will afford him 3 of Main's 4 votes.

Chris: In the Senate race, we will see Senator Olympia Snowe back in Washington. Mainers have always been very independent people, as we have seen tonight. Senator Snowe ran as an Independent to avoid a tea party primary. As it turns out the Republican in the race, Andrew Ian Dodge, dropped out during the last few weeks due to some gaffes and campaign issues. Snowe will be defeating Democrat Hannah Pingree. Even though she lost tonight, Pingree could very well make a comeback.


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« Reply #495 on: July 23, 2011, 11:16:41 pm »
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Interesting results in both states.

Not to nitpick, however, but I'd say Snowe would win by a much bigger margin without a Republican, and that given the context Obama would have a better shot at some of the little counties in WV; maybe switch Mingo or Nicholas to Obama.

But I probably am nitpicking. Tongue Excellent job on the timeline, and certainly better than any of my election nights. If those Maine numbers don't change, this could be a very suspenseful timeline (on par with that one between Obama and Palin)
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« Reply #496 on: July 23, 2011, 11:34:04 pm »
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Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia? Tongue
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« Reply #497 on: July 23, 2011, 11:59:08 pm »
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If those Maine numbers don't change, this could be a very suspenseful timeline (on par with that one between Obama and Palin)

Those were the final results in Maine; Romney took ME-02!

Is the suspense killing you yet!? lol

Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia? Tongue

b/c West Virginia is a Democratic state Wink

Outside of Presidential elections, its as blue as Massachusetts or Maryland. The GOP bench simply sucks there.

As I said, I'm a southern Democrat with West Virginian heritage myself, so I kinda indulged myself there!

I know Mike Oliverio personally...I couldn't have him lose!
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« Reply #498 on: July 24, 2011, 01:21:52 am »
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Why does it not surprise me Democrats are doing very well in West Virginia? Tongue

b/c West Virginia is a Democratic state Wink

Outside of Presidential elections, its as blue as Massachusetts or Maryland. The GOP bench simply sucks there.

As I said, I'm a southern Democrat with West Virginian heritage myself, so I kinda indulged myself there!

I know Mike Oliverio personally...I couldn't have him lose!

This is what I meant - Tomblin beating Ireland, while Democrats taking all House seats. Tongue You probably would have given Obama West Virginia too if not for the fact it's totally implausible. Wink

Good to see Goodwin back, though.
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« Reply #499 on: July 24, 2011, 10:12:43 am »
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great!! but if romney is carrying one CD in maine, he may win this election...
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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