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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #50 on: December 01, 2010, 08:57:56 PM »
« edited: December 01, 2010, 09:10:12 PM by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

As more counties report in Mississippi, Taylor expands his lead. Still, the AP is waiting for every county to report at least 85% of its precincts until declaring a winner. The Republican's path to retaining this seat is narrowing.





MISSISSIPPI COUNTY WINNERS

WITH 72% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING...


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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #51 on: December 02, 2010, 11:28:58 AM »

2 NOVEMBER 2011


2011 ELECTION FINAL RESULTS


KENTUCKY






LOUISIANA






MISSISSIPPI





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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #52 on: December 02, 2010, 11:33:51 AM »

UPDATED GUBERNATORIAL MAP

REPUBLICAN-28
DEMOCRATIC-21
INDEPENDENT-1



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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #53 on: December 03, 2010, 08:54:48 PM »

3 NOVEMBER 2011



Former Republican candidate John Raese announces that he will be seeking a rematch with West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. Raese makes his announcement with Sarah Palin at a tea party rally.

Palin:
"Hello West Virginia! Next year you will have an opportunity to elect John Raese, a great Constitutional Conservative to the Senate. I supported John in 2010 and when he asked me if I'd help him again, I sad "You bectha!." West Virginia needs John's small business experience and his commitment to restoring America to the nation that our founders envisioned it. That liberal, big-spending Joe Manchin needs to go! Ever since he's been in Washington he's been cozying up to President Obama and the liberal Democrat leadership. Thats not good for West Virginia! John had a good effort in 2010, but he fell a bit short. Next year, we can change that! So next year, how 'bout we vote those liberals Joe Manchin and Barack Obama out!"
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #54 on: December 03, 2010, 09:23:55 PM »

7 NOVEMBER 2011

PPP: West Virginia Poll

Summary: Despite President Obama's low approvals here, both of West Virginia's Democratic Senators remain very popular, as their approvals approach 60%. Heading into 2012, Manchin opens with an impressive 16-point lead. Raese doesn't seem to be a particularly strong candidate; he posts slightly negative favorables. Manchin leads by 21% with independents and gets almost 25% crossover support from Republicans, this is very impressive considering the polarized political atmosphere. With Rep. Shelley Moore Capito likely to run for Governor, the Republicans seem like they will be unable to recruit a strong candidate to challenge Manchin.

Do you approve of the job Senator Joe Manchin is doing?
Yes-56%
No-36%

Do you approve of the job Senator Jay Rockefeller is doing?
Yes-58%
No-35%

Do you approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing?
Yes-35%
No-58%

Do you have a favorable view of John Raese?
Yes-43%
No-47%

If the 2012 Senate race was between Joe Manchin and John Raese, who would you vote for?
Manchin-54%
Raese-38%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #55 on: December 04, 2010, 02:55:17 AM »
« Edited: December 04, 2010, 03:15:40 AM by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

9 NOVEMBER 2011



Throughout my career, I have built a pragmatic conservative record. While I have remained true to my conservative roots, I have often worked in a bipartisan way to better serve the people of Utah. Sadly, my work across the aisle has become a political liability. For instance, the right is using my bipartisan my work with my great friend Ted Kennedy to attack me.

In 2010, Bob Bennett fell victim to the far right. Bob was a great Senator and I greatly enjoyed working with him; I couldn't have asked for a better colleague. In 2012, I have decided to fight back against the tide of ideological extremism that is flooding the Republican party. Therefore, rather than seeking the Republican nomination, I will seek reelection as a candidate with No Party Affiliation.

By running as an independent, I can focus on my Senate work and not have to worry about answering to ideological purists; instead, I will answer to the people of Utah. My constituents have trusted me to represent them in the Senate for 36 years. While this bold move will likely pit the entire state Republican party against me, I am confident that my constituents will afford me the chance to serve them for 1 more term.


12 NOVEMBER 2011

Bob Jones: Utah Senate Poll

Among Likely GOP Convention Delegates:

Who would you be most inclined to support at next year's Convention? (before Hatch left GOP)
Chaffetz-36%
Bridgewater-31%
Hatch-23%
Other-10%

Who would you be most inclined to support at next year's Convention? (after Hatch left GOP)
Chaffetz-45%
Bridgewater-39%
Other/Unsure-16%

General Election Polling:

3-Way Races

Chaffetz-38%
Hatch-37%
Generic D-19%

Hatch-39%
Bridgewater-36%
Generic D-18%

2-Way Races

Hatch-48%
Chaffetz-46%

Hatch-47%
Bridgewater-44%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #56 on: December 05, 2010, 09:19:42 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2010, 11:21:33 PM by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

11 NOVEMBER 2011



Silencing rumors to the contrary, Hawaii Senator Dan Akaka announces that he will, in fact, be seeking a 5th term. Despite the very old age (88) of Hawaii's Senators, they both remain extremely popular, as does Obama; Hawaiians don't seem to care that both Akaka and Inouye are approaching 90, as they both have astronomical approval ratings. Akaka should be in good shape for reelection.

Survey USA: Hawaii Poll

Do you approve of Dan Inouye's work in the Senate?
Yes-76%
No-18%

Do you approve of Dan Akaka's work in the Senate?
Yes-71%
No-23%

Do you approve of Barack Obama's performance as president?
Yes-66%
No-30%

In 2012, would you vote to reelect Dan Akaka?
Yes-63%
No-34%

At the same time Ben Nelson of Nebraska announces his retirement. I don't think I need to show any Nebraska polls...






Incumbent Democrat (16)
Incumbent Republican (8 )
Incumbent Independent (2)
Retiring Democrat (5)
Retiring Republican (1)
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #57 on: December 12, 2010, 08:22:34 PM »


Thats right.

Sorry guys. I've had a lot of stuff on my to-do list.

As KS said, I had exams all of last week, so I couldn't get to the TL.

Also, KS and I have been creating our 2012 redistricting map; this map will play a huge role in my TL , so I invested a lot of time and energy into it.

Well, now I have 5 weeks off and I will be updating my TL very regularly.

Thanks for your patience and concern.

'Miles
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #58 on: December 12, 2010, 10:01:52 PM »

18 NOVEMBER 2011

We all knew this was coming...



"After talking with Todd, Bristol, Willow, Track and Piper, they have said that they will be supportive of me running for president. As many of you have speculated and guessed, I will be running for president in 2012.

By seeking the highest office in this great country, I will try to put America on a new path. A path that our Founders had envisioned. A path that will lead average Americans, people like Joe the Plumber or even middle class American patriots like my family, to have a greater say in their government. The policies of this administration have put a choke hold on our great middle class and the businesses that drive our country forward. At this rate, America will never rise up to the great potential it showed under the Reagan and Bush eras. The small businesses that have been pumping life into our country for decades have never been hurting this much.

For these 3 years, President Obama and VP Joe Biden have bankrupted our country, our people and our children's future with their liberal, socialist policies. I am running to give Americans a second choice. By choosing me over Obama, Americans will be choosing common-sense conservatism over heavy-handed tyranny and they will choose freedom over oppression and big government.

While President Obama, VP Biden, their czars, Harry Reid and faceless bureaucrats have been trying to ruin America, I have been on the campaign trail trying to get Constitutional Conservative candidates elected. These candidates ranged from governors like Susana Martinez and Nikki Haley, as well as Congressman, like Michele Bachmann and Rand Paul. It was partly due to my efforts that the American people took back the House in 2010 and sent a loud and clear message of disapproval to this White House.

Finally, I feel that I have the strong executive experiences needed to move America forward and I hope to see you all on the campaign trail! We have a a hard road ahead of us, but no major changes in America were ever easy! We can do this! God bless America!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #59 on: December 12, 2010, 10:41:41 PM »

YES! The triumphant return. Cheesy Hope exams didn't eat you too badly, Miles.

And I offer one big facepalm at Sarah Palin. That is all. x_x

Smiley

Thanks! I'm glad everybody missed me!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #60 on: December 12, 2010, 10:59:00 PM »

LATE NOVEMBER 2011

PPP: First Look at Palin

How would you describe your view of Sarah Palin?
Favorable-37%
Unfavorable-51%

Do you approve of Barack Obama's job as President?
Yes-44%
No-49%

Do you think Sarah Palin is fit to be President?
Yes-39%
No-55%

Would you consider Palin to be extreme or about right?
Extreme-49%
About Right-32%
Unsure-19%

In the general 2012 Presidential election, would you support Obama or Palin?
Obama-52%
Palin-41%


REPUBLICAN POLLING

How would you describe your view of Sarah Palin?
Favorable-76%
Unfavorable-20%

So far, Romney, Gingrich and Palin have declared their intent to run for the GOP nomination. Who are you most leaning towards out of these three?
Palin-34%
Romney-31%
Gingrich-26%


GENERAL ELECTION POLLING



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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #61 on: December 15, 2010, 08:10:24 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2010, 07:54:13 PM by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

EARLY DECEMBER 2011


Candidate Announcements:

In Nevada, embattled Sen. John Ensign, in addition to his Democratic opponent, Dina Titus, gets 2 more challenges from within his own party. A popular figure in his district, Congressman Dean Heller steps up against Ensign. Despite Sen. Ensign's relatively conservative record, he also picks up a challenge from his right in Nevada Tea Party Chairwoman and 2010 GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle. Although Angle lost by a wider-than-expected margin in 2010, she remains popular with the conservative wing of the GOP and the Tea Party Express has pledged to spend millions on her campaign.
Many pollsters predict that Titus will now have an advantage in the general election; she is the only announced Democrat while 3 high-profile Republicans will be competing against each other. While Nevada's unemployment rate is still lingering at 12%, it looks like they could very well elect another Democrat to the Senate if the GOP primary is bloody enough.


In North Dakota, 2-year Governor Jack Darlrymple prepares to challenge longtime Senator and Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad. While Conrad is generally considered to be a powerful figure in North Dakota, some in his home state say that after years in Washington, he's become just another "Beltway Insider." Initial polls show a closer than expected race. In 2010, Senator John Hoeven was elected with 74%; not a good sign for Conrad.


Massachusetts Democrats got a big boost when Vicki Kennedy, wife of the 47-year MA Senator Ted Kennedy, declared her intentions to seek her late husband's seat. Despite the very leftward tilt of MA, this Senate race promises to be one of the most competitive in the country. Scott Brown has made a conscious effort to distinguish himself from his more conservative Senate colleagues, as he has split with them on some key issues such as abortion and education funding. But, will it be enough? Many are expecting Obama to carry MA by at least 15 points in 2012. Will Brown get enough crossover support to fend off Kennedy? This seems to be the big question in MA. Polls show Brown narrowly ahead, but this is somewhat due to lack of knowledge about Kennedy.


Rep. Jason Chaffetz and 2010 GOP Senate contender Tim Bridgewater confirm that they will both be seeking the GOP nomination to take on Independent Republican Orrin Hatch in the general election. Hatch, facing the wrath of the far right for his extensive bipartisan work with the late Ted Kennedy, earned a spot on the Tea Party Express' 'Most Wanted' list. By running as an independent, Hatch hoped to salvage his career and squeeze one last term out of his right-leaning electorate. Because of Caffetz's and Bridgewater's nearly identical stances, the Republican contest is looking to be a personality contest.
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Miles
MilesC56
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Posts: 19,324
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« Reply #62 on: December 15, 2010, 08:23:48 PM »
« Edited: March 20, 2011, 05:54:43 PM by MilesC56 »

EARLY DECEMBER 2010

POLLING UPDATES

SurveyUSA: North Dakota Poll
Conrad-47%
Dalrymple-45%

PPP: Massachusetts Poll
Brown-46%
Kennedy-42%

Mason-Dixon: Nevada Poll

Titus-43%
Enign-40%

Titus-37%
Heller-45%

Titus-45%
Angle-37%

GOP Primary

Ensign*-36%
Heller-30%
Angle-27%

Dan Jones: Utah Polls

Chaffetz- 42%
Hatch- 39%
Generic D- 15%

Hatch- 41%
Bridgewater- 40%
Generic D- 16%
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Miles
MilesC56
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Posts: 19,324
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« Reply #63 on: December 17, 2010, 04:15:31 PM »

3 DECEMBER 2011

Giving a huge boost to Wisconsin Democrats, specifically Russ Feingold, Rep. Paul Ryan says that he will not be a candidate for Herb Kohl's open Senate seat.



"After the Republican wave of 2010, I ascended to the Chairmanship of the powerful House Committee on Budget. I plan to Chair this Committee as long as Republicans control the House. Therefore, next November, I will be running again to represent the people of Wisconson's First District.
I am confident that state Republicans in Wisconsin will find a formidable challenger for Mr. Feingold. After the 2010 elections, the Republican bench is very strong.
As Chairman of the Budget Committee, I have fought to implemnet the core policies of my Roadmap for America's Future. Republicans on my Commitee have been trying to restore principles such as balanced budgets and efficient spending to Congress. I plan to continue my fight against the fiscal irresponsibility that have dominated Congress for decades so that America can once again be prosperous.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #64 on: December 19, 2010, 02:50:37 AM »
« Edited: December 20, 2010, 12:02:46 AM by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

5 DECEMBER 2011

FINAL REDISTRICTING MAP AND RATINGS ARE RELEASED:





FOR A LARGER VERSION OF THE MAP, CLICK HERE:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TQ7jKweI60I/AAAAAAAAB1k/OeIx0mCdPr8/s1600/113house%2B-%2BCopy%2B%25282%2529.png


Notes:

-For the sake of this timeline (and simplicity) I used the current districts in California. It isn't expected to gain or lose votes and, also there is a very low seat turnover rate here anyway (even this year, no seats in CA flipped parties).

-When assigning district ratings, I took into consideration both the projected PVI rating as well as the popularity of the incumbents themselves.

-A special thanks to KS21 for helping me with some states. His plans were much appreciated!
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Miles
MilesC56
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Posts: 19,324
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« Reply #65 on: December 19, 2010, 03:39:24 AM »
« Edited: December 19, 2010, 03:44:11 AM by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

Good God, Miles, how long did that take? Shocked


I started it about 3 weeks ago. KS21 and I put a lot of time and effort into this!!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #66 on: December 19, 2010, 07:52:57 PM »

That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?

KS21 did MO for me. He's the expert in that region!

The 5 rural districts would still be Safe or Likely Republican. Ike Skelton is probably too old to make a comeback anyway.

The Kansas City district is Safe D. On the other side of the state, Lacy Clay would still be safe and Russ Carnahan would be about the same. Todd Aiken would now have a swing district.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #67 on: December 26, 2010, 07:15:36 PM »
« Edited: December 26, 2010, 07:24:45 PM by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

DECEMBER 6 2011

Mike Huckabee becomes the last major contender to announce his candidacy for the GOP Presidential nod. Huckabee announces his intentions on his Fox News show.



After today, I will be cancelling my show. I have nothing but thanks and gratitude to my viewers, supporters, friends and employers. I have enjoyed every second of this show. This was an opportunity that I will eternally cherish. Despite the end of this phase of my life, I will not stop serving the people of this great country. While the good Lord is indeed guiding my life in another direction, I will be continuing to help this country.
That is why I will be seeking the Presidency in 2012. As I watched the gradual and steady decline of America over the last four years, I felt more and more compelled to run for President again. In 2008, while my team ran a great campaign, we fell short, as I was the runner-up for the Republican nomination. In 2012, we will take our strengths from 2008 and build on them.
I feel that my great executive experience as Governor of Arkansas makes me the most qualified candidate. As Governor, I fought for fiscal responsibility, social restraint and conservative ideals. These are the values that a Huckabee Presidency will be based upon.
These next few months with be hard, but I believe in the Republican Party and the American electorate. I will be in a field of candidates that is nothing short of top-notch; I will be running against other fine Republicans, such as Speaker Gingrich and Governor Palin. However, I think that when Republicans examine my record, they will support me.
Again, thank you to all those who have supported me; I greatly value you and I hope you will continue your support in the future.  



PPP+Quinnipiac+SurveyUSA: Obama/Huckabee Compiled Map





OBAMA-243
HUCKABEE-238
TOSSUP-57
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #68 on: December 26, 2010, 08:06:49 PM »
« Edited: December 26, 2010, 08:14:14 PM by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

DECEMBER 12 2011

Selzer and Co.: Iowa GOP Caucus Poll
2000 respondents

Huckabee: 30%
Palin: 24%
Romney: 19%
Gingrich: 18%

Analysis: With a just under a month to go, the Iowa Caucus looks competitive; following a strong performance here in 2008, Huckabee is the favorite, however, a Palin upset is very possible. A key factor that will influence the outcome of this race will be Governor Branstad's endorsement. Branstad, the popular governor of Iowa, has yet to endorse a candidate; more importantly, 62% of respondents said that Branstad's pick will have at least some influence on their vote. The governor said that he will endorse on December 27, exactly one week before the caucus.

Other questions asked:

Which candidate do you think is the most conservative?
Palin: 38%
Huckabee: 32%
Gingrich: 22%
Romney: 8%

Do you approve of Governor Branstad's performance?
Yes-83%
No-13%

Favorables
Palin: 79/20
Huckabee: 78/19
Gingrich: 66/25
Romney: 61/28



Huckabee
Palin
Romney
Gingrich

Regionally, the map is starting to take form. Romney is strongest in the more liberal  eastern portion of the state, where he did well in 2008. Congressman Steve King has been making campaign stops with Palin in his western district, thus she is building up a western-Iowa firewall. Palin has also done heavy campaigning in the north. Aside from a few counties going for Gingrich, Huckabee dominates central Iowa.
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Miles
MilesC56
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Posts: 19,324
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« Reply #69 on: January 01, 2011, 01:39:13 PM »
« Edited: January 03, 2011, 08:47:36 AM by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

Hey Guys,

I had a few, ahh... technical...errors with my last House map. It took me a few weeks to adress those errors, so this is the new (and final) redistricting map:





This is a larger version:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSHR12R4bFI/AAAAAAAAB4k/ITRgBM1lVHY/s1600/offihouse113.png

And this is the FULL size map (if you copy and paste this to the Paint program, you can actually go in and change the colors of the districts!):
http://postimage.org/image/3350qydgk/full/

Again, thanks to KS for his help!

Thanks for all your support, my friends! More to come!
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Miles
MilesC56
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Posts: 19,324
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« Reply #70 on: January 01, 2011, 02:46:37 PM »

Well, I was using the 2000 population estimates instead of the 2008 estimates for about 15 states; sadly, most of those states were the bigger ones (NY,PA,FL,NC, etc). The population differences were easier to correct in some states than others though.

I also tend to be a stubborn perfectionist when it comes to this stuff

But its finally done! This House map will last me through the entire timeline, so I thought the investment in time would be worth it in the long run!

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #71 on: January 01, 2011, 02:47:43 PM »

hahaha! Sorry, I erased my response to change something and reposted it after you replied!

That just shows you how much of a perfectionist I can be! lol
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #72 on: January 01, 2011, 02:48:30 PM »

In any case...

on with the timeline!!!
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Miles
MilesC56
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Posts: 19,324
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« Reply #73 on: January 01, 2011, 11:50:57 PM »
« Edited: January 02, 2011, 01:20:59 PM by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

9 DECEMBER 2011

BREAKING: NEW JERSEY SEN. FRANK LAUTENBERG'S HEALTH DECLINING; SENATOR RUSHED TO HOSPITAL


Senator Frank Lautenberg(D-NJ), the eldest member of the Senate was taken into Georgetown University Hospital today. The Senator is said to be suffering from moderate pneumonia and severe dehydration. Lautenberg (87) will make his 88th birthday next month. The Senator's condition has been described as "critical." While Lautenberg's likelihood of survival is favorable, it is unclear whether or not he will continue his service in the Senate. If Lautenberg were to die or step down due to his health, the Democrats would be at the mercy of Governor Christie; Christie would appoint a successor to Lautenberg. Because of the party switch of Sen. Lieberman(R-CT), if Christie were to appoint a Republican, the Democratic Majority would be down to 51 seats.  

UPDATE: LAUTENBERG TO VACATE SENATE SEAT OVER HEALTH CONCERNS
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #74 on: January 03, 2011, 11:13:10 AM »

I'm a huge fan of those maps, and I know that that when you're dealing with minute details like house districts, it is time consuming. Such an awesome job!

Smiley
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