Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 19, 2017, 02:57:51 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Come grasp the mighty avatar of our admin, Apocrypha)
| | |-+  2011 and Beyond...
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 Print
Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 125304 times)
Snowstalker's Last Stand
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19327
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #525 on: August 04, 2011, 06:45:39 pm »
Ignore

*breathes in*...FEINGOLD!!! Cheesy

I'm working towards election night 2016 (Romney vs. Feingold) in my timeline.
Logged

mondale84
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P

View Profile
« Reply #526 on: August 04, 2011, 07:44:17 pm »
Ignore

I didn't remember that Blanche Lincoln won...

...well, I'm just going to toe the party line and say: I LOVE BLANCHE LINCOLN
Logged


"There are no men like me. There's only me."
HST1948
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 566


View Profile
« Reply #527 on: August 04, 2011, 08:17:44 pm »
Ignore

This is one of the best TL's I have read! Can't wait to see the final results! Smiley
Logged

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #528 on: August 08, 2011, 10:15:03 am »
Ignore

'Working on an update for later today!

I'll have results from NC, AZ, WY and an official AP call for PA.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2011, 10:40:45 pm by MilesC56 »Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #529 on: August 08, 2011, 10:30:36 am »
Ignore

Here's another cumulative Presidential map.

Obama and Romney are only 1 electoral vote apart!!!!! (and no, I actually didn't plan that!)



ROMNEY- 162
OBAMA- 161
Logged


Snowstalker's Last Stand
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19327
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #530 on: August 08, 2011, 10:45:59 am »
Ignore

Hey, I'd like to see South Dakota, especially the Congressional race (it's Sandlin, right?)
Logged

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #531 on: August 08, 2011, 01:58:35 pm »
Ignore

Hey, I'd like to see South Dakota, especially the Congressional race (it's Sandlin, right?)

Nah, Noem is cruisin'
Logged


tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19322
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #532 on: August 08, 2011, 02:29:09 pm »
Ignore

Hey, I'd like to see South Dakota, especially the Congressional race (it's Sandlin, right?)

Nah, Noem is cruisin'
Cheesy
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #533 on: August 08, 2011, 06:09:55 pm »
Ignore

The update will be later tonight....about 11-midnight-ish.

'Miles
Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #534 on: August 08, 2011, 10:40:05 pm »
Ignore

'Working on an update for later today tomorrow!

I'll have results from NC, AZ, WY and an official AP call for PA.
Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #535 on: August 09, 2011, 02:59:04 pm »
Ignore

Rachel: We now have a most...epic...batch of returns to report here at MSNBC Election Night. Perhaps no swing state was contested by the Obama team than North Carolina. While Obama did invest heavily here, and he even selected Charlotte for the DNC, the economic recovery in North Carolina has been languid, benefiting Romney. Our initial returns, with 48% of ballots counted, shows the candidates locked in an expectedly narrow race. Governor Romney is clinging to a razor-thin 49.5% to the President's 49.1%. Back in 2008, it actually took a few days to accurately call North Carolina; that might be the case again with the contest this close.

Chris: While the race for President got a lot of attention, we do have some important local results. Remember Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory lost the Republican nomination for Governor to former Congressman Robin Hayes!? Hayes ran as a tea party-backed alternate to the more moderate McCrory. Well, Democrats were smiling back then and they're smiling now; by giving the nomination to a less electable candidate, Republicans essentially handed Governor Perdue victory. Governor Perdue will be defeating Robin Hayes. Amazing that, even last year, most pundits were writing her off against McCrory.


Rachel: In fact, we have exit polls showing that McCrory would have won! This just shows how important primaries are! In the Congressional arena, Democrats could be running on borrowed time. Due to extensive court battles and legal paralysis, the current map will be used for one more cycle. For the 2014 cycle, a map drawn by the courts will be implemented. It is worth noting that that the current map was drawn to favor Democrats; a court-drawn map could endanger as many as 3 Democrats.
But for now, Democrats will actually gain a seat in North Carolina's delegation. We start in the 7th district, which is nestled in the southeastern corner of the state. This is actually another rematch. Ilario Pantano was a key speaker at the RNC; however he will be falling short again against Congressman Mike McIntyre. He'll be holding McIntyre under 60%, but still losing by about 18 points.

Chris: We also had a closely-watched race in the 2nd district. Republican Renee Ellmers was swept ashore in the 2010 GOP wave. However, tonight, she has been soundly beaten by Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, a resident of Harnett county. Renee Ellmers was always a controversial figure in the district and was a prime target of Democrats.

Rachel: Finally, in the 8th Congressman Larry Kissell has won against State Senator Bob Rucho. Kissell initially planned to run for Secretary of State, but announced he would run for Congress again when it was announced that the map would not change this year. Rucho campaigned strongly in Cabarrus and Stanly counties, but was blown away elsewhere inthe district.  (and no, Rucho doesn't actually live in the district he ran in, but neither does Virginia Foxx)


Chris: Well, no telling how late we could up waiting for a Presidential  winner in North Carolina. One state where we do have winners is Arizona. If Arizona hadn't been McCain's home state, Obama might well have carried it in 2008. Tonight, it stays Republican; Romney actually improved on McCain's margin. In the Senate race, Arizona will be sending Senator Jon Kyl back to Congress for 6 more years over AG Terry Goddard. Even though Kyl had a few gaffes, he will nonetheless be winning by about 6 points.


We only have 1 high-profile Congressional race here. Former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick narrowly bests Congressman Paul Gosar to return to Congress. Democrats tried to portray Gosar as a fringe candidate; Gosar did have to take some tough votes in the House, like the Ryan Budget, that Kirkpatrick used against him. Congresswoman Gabby Giffords will be going unopposed while Arizona's new 9th district will be going Republican (sorry, I did't know any good candidates Tongue)

Rachel: Now lets go Wyoming. At the top of ticket, Republicans dominated. Governor Romney will be carrying the state 2-to-1. Senator John Barasso had no major opponent. What is truly historic about Wyoming tonight is the Congressional contest. Former Governor Dave Freudnethal, who remains extremely popular, will he knocking off Congresswoman Cynthia Lummis.
Fruedenthal, despite his party affiliation, trounced Lummis with Independents, winning them 64-34, and he got roughly a third of the Republican vote, while still keeping over 90% of Democrats. That kind of crossover support is very impressive, especially in a state like Wyoming.



Chris: A very, very impressive feat for Freudenthal. You know, the last time that Wyoming had a Democrat the House was 35 years ago! This was a truly groundbreaking election there.

Rachel: We can finally call Pennsylvania. Despite the slow economic recovery here, the President will be retaining. I think what we're seeing here is the result of an extraordinary effort by the Obama campaign to get the vote out in the Keystone state. While the President isn't out of the woods yet, this gives him a much-needed boost. Our county-level results aren't 100% accurate, but they're fairly close; again, the AP is calling the Keystone state for the President by about 51-48.

Logged


Snowstalker's Last Stand
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19327
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #536 on: August 09, 2011, 03:01:14 pm »
Ignore

Yeah, go Obama!

What was the 1% who didn't vote for Barasso?
Logged

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #537 on: August 09, 2011, 03:13:23 pm »
Ignore

Yeah, go Obama!

What was the 1% who didn't vote for Barasso?

Eh, I had to give some portion of the vote to third parties.
Logged


Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #538 on: August 09, 2011, 04:58:18 pm »
Ignore

Cumulative Congressional Update:

SENATE



NET CHANGE: D+1


U.S HOUSE



REPUBLICANS: 174
DEMOCRATS: 156
RUNOFF NEEDED: 4
OUTSTANDING: 101
Logged


Devilman88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2504


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

View Profile
« Reply #539 on: August 10, 2011, 08:50:05 am »
Ignore

What the ev map look like now?
Logged

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #540 on: August 10, 2011, 01:02:34 pm »
Ignore

OBAMA- 181
ROMNEY-176

(I'll post a map when I call more states)
Logged


redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3817
View Profile
« Reply #541 on: August 11, 2011, 09:26:29 pm »
Ignore

How did Cicciline manage to hold on in Rhode Island? I know its a pretty liberal place, but I don't see him winning against the Republican.
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6606
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #542 on: August 13, 2011, 07:13:29 am »
Ignore

more, please!
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Trumpism: Turn the dial all the way up and pull off the knob
ChairmanSanchez
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27663
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


View Profile
« Reply #543 on: August 13, 2011, 01:54:26 pm »
Ignore

more, please!
Logged

I am willing to die in Korea for this man.
Snowstalker's Last Stand
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19327
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #544 on: August 13, 2011, 01:59:34 pm »
Ignore

Logged

bloombergforpresident
obama12
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 379


View Profile
« Reply #545 on: August 13, 2011, 03:16:05 pm »
Ignore

Who won Luektemeyer's seat in MO?
Logged

Mitt Romney is whatever you want him to be, sugar. 150 roses for a half-hour, 300 for a full hour. In-calls only.
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #546 on: August 13, 2011, 11:29:34 pm »
Ignore

How did Cicciline manage to hold on in Rhode Island? I know its a pretty liberal place, but I don't see him winning against the Republican.

Just assume some generic (and thus, electable) Democrat beat him in the primary and held the seat.

Who won Luektemeyer's seat in MO?

His 9th district was axed since he ran for Senate. Most of his district was combined with Aiken's and Graves'.



I'll shoot for an update by Monday; I'm currently working on a few more state maps.

'Miles
Logged


Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6606
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #547 on: August 16, 2011, 05:59:57 am »
Ignore

So...?
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19459
United States


View Profile
« Reply #548 on: August 18, 2011, 10:32:33 am »
Ignore

A long-awaited update! Smiley

Rachel: Continuing our move westward, we have several more states to project. We just got results from the Dakotas. Starting in South Dakota, the home of Republican VP candidate John Thune. Accordingly, Governor Romney will be winning the state in a blowout 68-31 margin. This just shows how popular Senator Thune is back home. Democratoc counties are largely limited to those with large majority Native American populations. In the House race, Freshman Republican Kristi Noem faced only token opposition, as former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin decided against seeking a rematch.


Chris: The Republican Presidential ticket was also very strong in North Dakota. Romney will be winning there by about 30 points. However, at the state level, North Dakota is more of a mixed bag. We had quite an interesting Senate race here. Acting Governor Jack Dalrymple challenged Senator Kent Conrad. Dalrymple was fairly popular despite not actually being elected; he portrayed Conrad as a Beltway insider who was too entrenched in D.C politics to be in touch with North Dakota. Polling was close for this race, as Dalrymple was competitive. With only 64% of precincts in, we can report that Senator Conrad is trailing the Governor. This could really come down to the wire. North Dakota hasn't had a competitive Senate race in decades.

Rachel: There was also an open Governor's race there. This comes as good news for Democrats. The AP can project that former Senator Byron Dorgan will come out ahead of Lieutenant Governor Drew Wrigley. Because of his retirement, Dorgan wasn't as attached to D.C as Conrad, so that definitely played his favor. Wrigley also ran somewhat of an ineffective and slow campaign.


Chris: Moving west still, we have a look at Nevada. Governor Romney has always done well here and we can report that he is indeed in a tight race. At this point, we can give the President a small lead, but we still about a third of precincts left.
However, one race that isn't close is the Senate contest. Congresswoman Dina Titus will be soundly elected over tea party icon Sharron Angle. Angle ousted Senator John Ensign in the primary, but never had much appeal outside of conservative voters. Even if Obama loses here, Democrats should be glad that they have both of Nevada's Senate seats.
The House delegation will stand at 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. Democrats Shelley Berkley and Chris Guinchigliani were elected in liberal Las Vegas districts will Republicans Joe Heck and Sue Lowden take the other 2 seats.




Rachel: We can finally make a call in Missouri. Governor Romney will win there by about 3%. The President lost there by 3000 votes and since then the electorate has become less receptive to him. In any case, its a good boost for Governor Romney.

Logged


Snowstalker's Last Stand
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19327
Greece


View Profile
« Reply #549 on: August 18, 2011, 01:35:33 pm »
Ignore

Woah, Obama did worse than I expected in the Dakotas. Guess Thune helped a lot more than I expected.
Logged

Pages: 1 ... 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines