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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Eli Gorbinsky, Apocrypha)
  2011 and Beyond...
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Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 129651 times)
Niemeyerite
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« Reply #50 on: November 15, 2010, 09:58:05 am »

Go Gene!!! And Hatch should become an indpeendents (it's the only way to have a non-republican representing Utah!!)
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #51 on: November 15, 2010, 04:08:14 pm »

I would support even Hatch and Corker over anything the Tea Party has to offer.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #52 on: November 15, 2010, 04:47:39 pm »

Snowe - LePage?
Hatch - Chaffetz?
Hutchinson - Perry? Michael Williams?
Lugar - I'd love to see him ousted by no one would be able to get enough momentum to beat him (let alone be crazy enough to run in the first place, except maybe for Hockstetter)
Corker - Blackburn?
Brown - As Svensson said, good luck taking out someone with a 70% approval rating (also as Svensson said, it may have gone down ITTL, but I still assume that it's relatively high)
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #53 on: November 15, 2010, 04:59:41 pm »

Carla Howell is probably the best "Tea Party" challenger to Scott Brown.  She'd have to run as a Republican, though.
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Miles
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« Reply #54 on: November 15, 2010, 05:28:39 pm »
« Edited: November 16, 2010, 02:54:24 am by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

15 AUGUST 2011

Two weeks after the Mississippi primary, here is where cumulative polling stands:

Kentucky

BESHEAR[D]*- 52%
WILLIAMS[R]-39%



Louisiana

JINDAL[R]*-60%
CAZAYOUX[D]-35%
Others-2%




Mississippi

TAYLOR[D]-47%
REEVES[R]^-42%



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Cath
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« Reply #55 on: November 15, 2010, 08:27:30 pm »

I think the "histlist" is kind of stupid, but...

Anyway, I wouldn't recommend the Tea Party attempt to take out Brown, given that he's pretty much the GOP's only hope for a Senate seat from Massachusetts, and he's at least more Conservative than Ted Kennedy. Ironic, considering that Tea Party momentum is what put Brown in office in the first place.
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Miles
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« Reply #56 on: November 15, 2010, 08:48:40 pm »

19 AUGUST 2011


The second major development of the 2012 Senate elections occurs when Sen. Bill Nelson announces his retirement.




"While I have spent the last years serving Floridians in the Senate, I feel that it is my time to bow out. Looking back, I am satisfied with my record and I know that my work has benefited my constituents. I will spend my last year or so in the Senate wrapping up unfinished projects and bringing closure to my tenure in the Senate."


Almost immediately, failed FL Senate candidate Kendrick B. Meek announces his candidacy.



"With Senator Nelson's departure Democrats have lost a true advocate, however, now Florida has the opportunity to elect a new Senator. In 2010, we came close but we fell just short of defeating Senator Rubio. We had the support then and we continue to have the support from independents, liberals and conservatives that we need to win in 2012. I'm confident that this 6'2" former state trooper will be the next United States Senator from Florida!"
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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #57 on: November 16, 2010, 02:27:54 am »

I would support Hostettler to primary Lugar. The Tea Partys best bet if both Pence and Daniels both run for President or Pence runs for governor and Daniels for President. If not be prepared for Jackie Walorski.
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KS21
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« Reply #58 on: November 16, 2010, 07:59:25 am »

I think the "histlist" is kind of stupid, but...

Anyway, I wouldn't recommend the Tea Party attempt to take out Brown, given that he's pretty much the GOP's only hope for a Senate seat from Massachusetts, and he's at least more Conservative than Ted Kennedy. Ironic, considering that Tea Party momentum is what put Brown in office in the first place.

And look what happened in Deleware. That was the second easies pickup for the GOP and they blew it because of the TP.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #59 on: November 16, 2010, 12:36:55 pm »

Could Hatch swith to independent??
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Miles
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« Reply #60 on: November 17, 2010, 12:26:06 am »
« Edited: November 17, 2010, 09:39:56 am by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

15 SEPTEMBER 2011

POLLING UPDATES

Obama's performance against a Generic Republican continues to slide:



Obama Approval:

PPP:
Approve-45%
Disapprove-48%


Rasmussen (R)Sad
Strongly Approve-26%
Strongly Disapprove-45%

Total Approve-43%
Total Disapprove-57%

Quinnipiac:
Approve:44%
Disapprove:49%



Luckily for Dems, despite his relatively poor performance in the Electoral College and his slightly underwater approvals, Obama leads every probable GOP contender in PPP's cumulative polls. Obama does significantly better when pitted against the actual Republican candidates than a Generic Republican. The electoral college map is turning into nothing more than a visual of Obama's approval rating rather than a representation of an actual 2012 matchup.

Obama:48%
Romney:46%

Obama:47%
Huckabee:45%

Obama:49%
Palin:39%

Obama: 48%
Gingrich: 40%


Republican candidate Favorables (PPP)

Palin: 35/54
Romney: 48/42
Gingrich: 38/52
Huckabee: 44/42

Based on her intellectual capacity, do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to be president?

Yes-37%
No-56%

General Republican Primary Polling:

Palin:22%
Romney:22%
Huckabee:20%
Gingrich:16%

Favorables Among Republican voters:

Palin:76/21
Romney: 60/36
Huckabee: 67/29
Gingrich: 64/31



Generic Congressional Ballot

Gallup
R-47%
D-43%


PPP
R-46%
D-42%


Rasmussen (R)
R-50%
D-40%


Quinnipiac
R-46%
D-44%




Polling in 8 competitive Senate races:


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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #61 on: November 17, 2010, 11:05:03 am »

Excellent. But I can't imagine allen doing better than mcdonnell
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Miles
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« Reply #62 on: November 17, 2010, 02:16:25 pm »
« Edited: November 18, 2010, 02:50:04 am by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

21 SEPTEMBER 2011

Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana signs into law an Arizona-style immigration law. His already great poll numbers rise, largely due to an energized conservative base in Louisiana.




"...As for immigration, I will follow the lead of Governor Jan Brewer in Arizona. She has taken action where the Obama Administration has not and for that, I applaud her. We have an illegal immigration problem right here in the the Pelican state. Under my leadership, I hope Louisiana will join Arizona as leader in the fight against illegal immigration and encourage legal immigration to the United States. As your governor, I could not stand by and let this issue hurt our communities, our local businesses and our security any longer. Look, my parents can here as immigrants from India looking for a better life for themselves, me and my family, so can relate firsthand to experiences of immigrants. We can all respect that, but my parents came here legally and lawfully. I see no reason not to hold all our immigrants to that same standard. "


Magellan Strategies Poll- 23 September 2011

Do you approve of the new immigration law signed by Governor Jindal?

Yes-65%
No-30%

Do you approve of the job Bobby Jindal is doing as Governor?

Yes-63%
No-35%

If the 2011 Gubernatorial election were today, who would you vote for?

Jindal(R)*-64%
Cazayoux(D)-30%
Other/Unsure-6%

Do you approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

Yes-32%
No-66%
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #63 on: November 17, 2010, 05:15:15 pm »

The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?
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Cath
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« Reply #64 on: November 17, 2010, 05:32:58 pm »

The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #65 on: November 17, 2010, 05:34:27 pm »

I have to agree with the above two and suggest, politely, that you try to keep timelines as unbiased as possible. Smiley
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #66 on: November 17, 2010, 06:00:48 pm »

I would support Hostettler to primary Lugar. The Tea Partys best bet if both Pence and Daniels both run for President or Pence runs for governor and Daniels for President. If not be prepared for Jackie Walorski.
I can promise you, Jackie won't challenge Lugar. If anything, she'll run against Donnelly in 2012. Republicans in the state are going to try and make that district as winnable for her as possible.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #67 on: November 17, 2010, 06:02:47 pm »

I don't think it's biased. Jindal is a hack
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Cath
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« Reply #68 on: November 17, 2010, 06:04:33 pm »

I don't think it's biased. Jindal is a hack

Since you're a valued reader of my timelines, I won't comment.
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KS21
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« Reply #69 on: November 17, 2010, 06:34:03 pm »

The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?

Not really. He's a political opportuntist, and this is coming from an SB 1070 supporter.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #70 on: November 17, 2010, 07:01:50 pm »

I agree with KS and bawlexus. I've lived in Louisiana for long enough to know that this is something Jindal would actually say and do.

He is super-popular, sadly for me! If anything, I went low on his numbers.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #71 on: November 17, 2010, 07:23:05 pm »

The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?

Not really. He's a political opportuntist, and this is coming from an SB 1070 supporter.

You called the State of Louisiana "xenophobic." That's biased in my eyes.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #72 on: November 17, 2010, 07:38:23 pm »

The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?

Not really. He's a political opportuntist, and this is coming from an SB 1070 supporter.

Well, it's not so much the Jindal critique as it was the "xenophobic Louisiana" deal. At least, that's my opinion.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #73 on: November 17, 2010, 07:40:52 pm »

The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?

Not really. He's a political opportuntist, and this is coming from an SB 1070 supporter.

You called the State of Louisiana "xenophobic." That's biased in my eyes.

Its is. Its a very racist state.

...and I'm saying that as a white person!
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #74 on: November 17, 2010, 11:18:57 pm »

The Jindal post is a little....biased, isn't it?

Not really. He's a political opportuntist, and this is coming from an SB 1070 supporter.

You called the State of Louisiana "xenophobic." That's biased in my eyes.

Its is. Its a very racist state.

...and I'm saying that as a white person!

Well, still, you may live there, but I find it's best to keep opinions out of timelines.

Just IMO, though. Smiley
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