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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Admiral Lord Horatio D'Ascoyne, Apocrypha)
  2011 and Beyond...
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Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 130330 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #175 on: December 17, 2010, 04:15:31 pm »

3 DECEMBER 2011

Giving a huge boost to Wisconsin Democrats, specifically Russ Feingold, Rep. Paul Ryan says that he will not be a candidate for Herb Kohl's open Senate seat.



"After the Republican wave of 2010, I ascended to the Chairmanship of the powerful House Committee on Budget. I plan to Chair this Committee as long as Republicans control the House. Therefore, next November, I will be running again to represent the people of Wisconson's First District.
I am confident that state Republicans in Wisconsin will find a formidable challenger for Mr. Feingold. After the 2010 elections, the Republican bench is very strong.
As Chairman of the Budget Committee, I have fought to implemnet the core policies of my Roadmap for America's Future. Republicans on my Commitee have been trying to restore principles such as balanced budgets and efficient spending to Congress. I plan to continue my fight against the fiscal irresponsibility that have dominated Congress for decades so that America can once again be prosperous.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #176 on: December 19, 2010, 02:50:37 am »
« Edited: December 20, 2010, 12:02:46 am by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

5 DECEMBER 2011

FINAL REDISTRICTING MAP AND RATINGS ARE RELEASED:





FOR A LARGER VERSION OF THE MAP, CLICK HERE:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TQ7jKweI60I/AAAAAAAAB1k/OeIx0mCdPr8/s1600/113house%2B-%2BCopy%2B%25282%2529.png


Notes:

-For the sake of this timeline (and simplicity) I used the current districts in California. It isn't expected to gain or lose votes and, also there is a very low seat turnover rate here anyway (even this year, no seats in CA flipped parties).

-When assigning district ratings, I took into consideration both the projected PVI rating as well as the popularity of the incumbents themselves.

-A special thanks to KS21 for helping me with some states. His plans were much appreciated!
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #177 on: December 19, 2010, 03:30:19 am »

Good God, Miles, how long did that take? Shocked
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #178 on: December 19, 2010, 03:39:24 am »
« Edited: December 19, 2010, 03:44:11 am by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

Good God, Miles, how long did that take? Shocked


I started it about 3 weeks ago. KS21 and I put a lot of time and effort into this!!
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #179 on: December 19, 2010, 03:51:58 am »

Good God, Miles, how long did that take? Shocked


I started it about 3 weeks ago. KS21 and I put a lot of time and effort into this!!

It shows. It really, really, really shows. Shocked

EXCELLENT work.
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KS21
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« Reply #180 on: December 19, 2010, 12:46:07 pm »
« Edited: December 19, 2010, 12:57:11 pm by Lt. Gov. KS21 »

Good God, Miles, how long did that take? Shocked


I started it about 3 weeks ago. KS21 and I put a lot of time and effort into this!!

It shows. It really, really, really shows. Shocked

EXCELLENT work.

Yeah, it was a lot of work. But I was happy to help out.

But Miles deserves the most credit- I only did a few states (AR (we worked together), MO, KS, OK, NJ, GA, WA), most of which are small(er than normal).

Miles did the larger states like PA, FL, NY, OH, MI, IL, etc, which ate up a lot more time.

Thanks, Sven!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #181 on: December 19, 2010, 12:54:13 pm »

Great! Smiley My only real nitpick that I can see is Kansas, where I don't see the all Republican legislature creating a toss-up district right next to a safe Republican district.
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KS21
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« Reply #182 on: December 19, 2010, 01:35:30 pm »
« Edited: December 19, 2010, 01:38:27 pm by Lt. Gov. KS21 »

Great! Smiley My only real nitpick that I can see is Kansas, where I don't see the all Republican legislature creating a toss-up district right next to a safe Republican district.


My explanation-

They've done it before. They could have had Moore screwed over 5000+ ways in 2000 but they didn't because the KS GOP has created a swing districts in recent decades if it makes another district (Jenkins, in this case) safe for good.

This is ideal for the GOP because now every single Democratic area is now out of CD2, making a Boyda 2006-repeat practically impossible.

The GOP has controled the process for 3 decades now (Hayden, Graves, Brownback) and with only the exception of 1995-1999 we've had 1 or 2 Dems (Slattery, Moore, Boyda) in this very red state.
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« Reply #183 on: December 19, 2010, 02:33:08 pm »

Nice (really nice) MAP: cngratulations =)
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bloombergforpresident
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« Reply #184 on: December 19, 2010, 07:42:25 pm »

That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?
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Miles
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« Reply #185 on: December 19, 2010, 07:52:57 pm »

That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?

KS21 did MO for me. He's the expert in that region!

The 5 rural districts would still be Safe or Likely Republican. Ike Skelton is probably too old to make a comeback anyway.

The Kansas City district is Safe D. On the other side of the state, Lacy Clay would still be safe and Russ Carnahan would be about the same. Todd Aiken would now have a swing district.
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albaleman
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« Reply #186 on: December 19, 2010, 09:14:15 pm »

That map is really, really, REALLY unbelievable. Fantastic job Miles.
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bloombergforpresident
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« Reply #187 on: December 19, 2010, 09:24:45 pm »

That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?

KS21 did MO for me. He's the expert in that region!

The 5 rural districts would still be Safe or Likely Republican. Ike Skelton is probably too old to make a comeback anyway.

The Kansas City district is Safe D. On the other side of the state, Lacy Clay would still be safe and Russ Carnahan would be about the same. Todd Aiken would now have a swing district.


Did Akin's district boundaries change because I would  say that's  not a real swing district currrently.
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redcommander
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« Reply #188 on: December 20, 2010, 12:39:55 am »

Bravo on the map! I'm hoping the Republicans pick a few seats outside of New Hampshire in New England in this timeline. It was such a shame that didn't happen in 2010
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KS21
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« Reply #189 on: December 20, 2010, 07:56:11 am »

That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?

KS21 did MO for me. He's the expert in that region!

The 5 rural districts would still be Safe or Likely Republican. Ike Skelton is probably too old to make a comeback anyway.

The Kansas City district is Safe D. On the other side of the state, Lacy Clay would still be safe and Russ Carnahan would be about the same. Todd Aiken would now have a swing district.


Did Akin's district boundaries change because I would  say that's  not a real swing district currrently.

Yes, the boundaries changed on Akin's district. This was planned. With a split redistricting process, it would seem likely that a 5-3-1 R compromise would be good.

Clay's district was moved north taking parts of Akin's district, had the southern 1/3 taken out and was given to what remained of Akin's. This plan more evenly splits up the Red suburbs, Blue suburbs, and Urban STL.

Cleaver's district had the GOP suburbs taken out and replaced with Caly County, which is a swing county by Missouri standards.
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bloombergforpresident
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« Reply #190 on: December 20, 2010, 11:28:24 am »

That is really good. Are the districts in MO different and how?

KS21 did MO for me. He's the expert in that region!

The 5 rural districts would still be Safe or Likely Republican. Ike Skelton is probably too old to make a comeback anyway.

The Kansas City district is Safe D. On the other side of the state, Lacy Clay would still be safe and Russ Carnahan would be about the same. Todd Aiken would now have a swing district.


Did Akin's district boundaries change because I would  say that's  not a real swing district currrently.

Yes, the boundaries changed on Akin's district. This was planned. With a split redistricting process, it would seem likely that a 5-3-1 R compromise would be good.

Clay's district was moved north taking parts of Akin's district, had the southern 1/3 taken out and was given to what remained of Akin's. This plan more evenly splits up the Red suburbs, Blue suburbs, and Urban STL.

Cleaver's district had the GOP suburbs taken out and replaced with Caly County, which is a swing county by Missouri standards.

I see. Again, a fantastic map!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #191 on: December 26, 2010, 07:15:36 pm »
« Edited: December 26, 2010, 07:24:45 pm by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

DECEMBER 6 2011

Mike Huckabee becomes the last major contender to announce his candidacy for the GOP Presidential nod. Huckabee announces his intentions on his Fox News show.



After today, I will be cancelling my show. I have nothing but thanks and gratitude to my viewers, supporters, friends and employers. I have enjoyed every second of this show. This was an opportunity that I will eternally cherish. Despite the end of this phase of my life, I will not stop serving the people of this great country. While the good Lord is indeed guiding my life in another direction, I will be continuing to help this country.
That is why I will be seeking the Presidency in 2012. As I watched the gradual and steady decline of America over the last four years, I felt more and more compelled to run for President again. In 2008, while my team ran a great campaign, we fell short, as I was the runner-up for the Republican nomination. In 2012, we will take our strengths from 2008 and build on them.
I feel that my great executive experience as Governor of Arkansas makes me the most qualified candidate. As Governor, I fought for fiscal responsibility, social restraint and conservative ideals. These are the values that a Huckabee Presidency will be based upon.
These next few months with be hard, but I believe in the Republican Party and the American electorate. I will be in a field of candidates that is nothing short of top-notch; I will be running against other fine Republicans, such as Speaker Gingrich and Governor Palin. However, I think that when Republicans examine my record, they will support me.
Again, thank you to all those who have supported me; I greatly value you and I hope you will continue your support in the future.  



PPP+Quinnipiac+SurveyUSA: Obama/Huckabee Compiled Map





OBAMA-243
HUCKABEE-238
TOSSUP-57
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #192 on: December 26, 2010, 08:06:49 pm »
« Edited: December 26, 2010, 08:14:14 pm by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

DECEMBER 12 2011

Selzer and Co.: Iowa GOP Caucus Poll
2000 respondents

Huckabee: 30%
Palin: 24%
Romney: 19%
Gingrich: 18%

Analysis: With a just under a month to go, the Iowa Caucus looks competitive; following a strong performance here in 2008, Huckabee is the favorite, however, a Palin upset is very possible. A key factor that will influence the outcome of this race will be Governor Branstad's endorsement. Branstad, the popular governor of Iowa, has yet to endorse a candidate; more importantly, 62% of respondents said that Branstad's pick will have at least some influence on their vote. The governor said that he will endorse on December 27, exactly one week before the caucus.

Other questions asked:

Which candidate do you think is the most conservative?
Palin: 38%
Huckabee: 32%
Gingrich: 22%
Romney: 8%

Do you approve of Governor Branstad's performance?
Yes-83%
No-13%

Favorables
Palin: 79/20
Huckabee: 78/19
Gingrich: 66/25
Romney: 61/28



Huckabee
Palin
Romney
Gingrich

Regionally, the map is starting to take form. Romney is strongest in the more liberal  eastern portion of the state, where he did well in 2008. Congressman Steve King has been making campaign stops with Palin in his western district, thus she is building up a western-Iowa firewall. Palin has also done heavy campaigning in the north. Aside from a few counties going for Gingrich, Huckabee dominates central Iowa.
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KS21
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« Reply #193 on: December 29, 2010, 03:33:55 pm »

Excellent!
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #194 on: December 29, 2010, 08:02:22 pm »

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #195 on: January 01, 2011, 01:39:13 pm »
« Edited: January 03, 2011, 08:47:36 am by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

Hey Guys,

I had a few, ahh... technical...errors with my last House map. It took me a few weeks to adress those errors, so this is the new (and final) redistricting map:





This is a larger version:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hxMxfvoSbaU/TSHR12R4bFI/AAAAAAAAB4k/ITRgBM1lVHY/s1600/offihouse113.png

And this is the FULL size map (if you copy and paste this to the Paint program, you can actually go in and change the colors of the districts!):
http://postimage.org/image/3350qydgk/full/

Again, thanks to KS for his help!

Thanks for all your support, my friends! More to come!
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #196 on: January 01, 2011, 02:20:57 pm »

Wow, Miles, I feel for you. bad enough you had to take nearly a month to make it, but another half of one to fix it. Sad As someone who does occasional graphics work, I understand.

But, hey, least it was worth it. Cheesy
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #197 on: January 01, 2011, 02:46:37 pm »

Well, I was using the 2000 population estimates instead of the 2008 estimates for about 15 states; sadly, most of those states were the bigger ones (NY,PA,FL,NC, etc). The population differences were easier to correct in some states than others though.

I also tend to be a stubborn perfectionist when it comes to this stuff

But its finally done! This House map will last me through the entire timeline, so I thought the investment in time would be worth it in the long run!

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #198 on: January 01, 2011, 02:47:43 pm »

hahaha! Sorry, I erased my response to change something and reposted it after you replied!

That just shows you how much of a perfectionist I can be! lol
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #199 on: January 01, 2011, 02:48:09 pm »

Ah, we even share perfectionism. Awesome. Wink

Well, I can say it's paid off, at least!

EDIT: Wow, that confused me thoroughly for a second...
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