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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #200 on: January 01, 2011, 02:48:30 pm »

In any case...

on with the timeline!!!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #201 on: January 01, 2011, 11:50:57 pm »
« Edited: January 02, 2011, 01:20:59 pm by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

9 DECEMBER 2011

BREAKING: NEW JERSEY SEN. FRANK LAUTENBERG'S HEALTH DECLINING; SENATOR RUSHED TO HOSPITAL


Senator Frank Lautenberg(D-NJ), the eldest member of the Senate was taken into Georgetown University Hospital today. The Senator is said to be suffering from moderate pneumonia and severe dehydration. Lautenberg (87) will make his 88th birthday next month. The Senator's condition has been described as "critical." While Lautenberg's likelihood of survival is favorable, it is unclear whether or not he will continue his service in the Senate. If Lautenberg were to die or step down due to his health, the Democrats would be at the mercy of Governor Christie; Christie would appoint a successor to Lautenberg. Because of the party switch of Sen. Lieberman(R-CT), if Christie were to appoint a Republican, the Democratic Majority would be down to 51 seats.  

UPDATE: LAUTENBERG TO VACATE SENATE SEAT OVER HEALTH CONCERNS
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #202 on: January 02, 2011, 12:16:13 pm »

continue!!!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #203 on: January 03, 2011, 11:13:10 am »

I'm a huge fan of those maps, and I know that that when you're dealing with minute details like house districts, it is time consuming. Such an awesome job!

Smiley
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #204 on: January 03, 2011, 11:21:55 am »

Christine Todd Whitman seems to be the obvious choice here, though Christie could decide to go with his Lt. Governor.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #205 on: January 03, 2011, 11:35:21 am »

14 DECEMBER 2011

CHRISTIE TO APPOINT MODERATE REPUBLICAN FRANK LOBIONDO TO SENATE



As Senator Frank Lautenberg has vacated the Senate due to health concerns, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (R) has announced that he will appoint moderate Republican Congressman Frank LoBiondo. Christie maintains " I am pleased to appoint a true fighter for New Jersey to the Senate. Both Frank LoBiondo's colleagues and his constituents can attest to his bipartisan approach to problem solving and his common-sense perspective. While Frank will be causing with the Republicans, I have no doubt that he will cross the aisle on issues such as the environment, spending and other issues. That is why I am proud to choose Frank; he has proven to be an independent voice for New Jersey and I expect him to do well in the Senate."

A Class II Special Election will be held next November in conjunction with the Regular Class I election, thus the seats of both New Jersey Senators, Menendez and LoBiondo, will be up for election. Most analysts predict LoBiondo will run for a full term.
While this appointment narrows the Democratic Majority in the Senate to just 51-49, there is some good news for Democrats:
-As a result of redistricting, LoBiondo's vacant House seat has a projected PVI of D+3. This will be a prime pickup opportunity for House Democrats. With Obama coattails in New Jersey, LoBiondo's House seat is now a top priority for the DCCC.
-Because LoBiondo will be running for a full term, his voting record will undoubtedly move even further to the left. Already, he has voted for such things as Cap and Trade. Democrats will have his vote on many key pieces of legislature. Also, because he is endorsed by Christie and has high name recognition, he LoBiondo will be relatively safe from a primary challenge.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #206 on: January 03, 2011, 11:50:14 am »
« Edited: January 03, 2011, 01:16:19 pm by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

15 DECEMBER 2011

PPP: New Jersey Poll


Analysis: In our first look at the NJ  Special Election, Frank LoBiondo is in pretty decent shape. While only 59% of Republicans view him favorably, he gets the approval of 23% of Democrats; that type of crossover support is rare in this climate. He narrowly leads two Democrats in hypothetical matches and a strong plurality of respondents see him as moderate. Because Republicans will likely vote for LoBiondo anyway in the general election, his primary focus now should be to build up a center-left voting record to attract even more Democrats. Senator Bob Mendez posts slightly positive, but mediocre, approvals, as he has his entire term.

Do approve of Governor Christie's choice of Frank LoBiondo?
Yes-39%
No-29%
Unsure-32%

Do you approve of Senator Menedez's job performance?
Yes-41%
No-39%

In the Special Election this November, would you vote for Frank LoBiondo(R) or Jon Adler(D)?
LoBiondo-40%
Adler-37%

In the Special Election this November, would you vote for Frank LoBiondo(R) or Rush Holt(D)?
LoBiondo-42%
Holt-39%

Would you consider LoBiondo to be conservative, liberal, or moderate?
Moderate-41%
Conservative-27%
Liberal-21%

New Jersey District 2 Poll

Did you approve of the work Frank LoBiondo did as your Representative?
Yes-60%
No-34%

Generally speaking, in 2012, would you vote for Barack Obama or a Republican?
Obama-46%
Republican-42%

Are you planning to vote to elect Sen. LoBiondo to a full term in 2012?
Yes-59%
No-30%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #207 on: January 04, 2011, 11:11:18 am »

27 DECEMBER 2011

After a contentious Republican debate and with one week leading up to the Iowa caucus, Governor Branstad endorses Mitt Romney. While this endorsement gives the Romney campaign extra speed going into the final week, many wonder if it will be enough to overtake Huckabee, as most polls have Romney and Palin in a close contest- for second place.



While this is no doubt a very high-profile and crucial endorsement, other Republican heavyweights have also made endorsements:

Romney Endorsements:
-Gov. Terry Branstad
-Sen. Chuck Grassley
-Gov. Scott Walker
-Gov. Tom Corbett
-Sen. Roy Blunt
-Sen. Kelly Ayotte
-Sen. Mark Kirk
-Frmr Sen. Connie Mack
-Gov. Ric Snyder
-Frmr. Chair Michael Steele
-Sen. Lindsey Graham
-Frmr Sen. Mel Martinez


Huckabee Endorsements:
-Sen. David Vitter
-Sen. John Boozman
-Gov. Bobby Jindal
-Gov. Bill Haslam
-Gov. Bob Bentley
-Frmr. Gov Bob Riley
-Rep. Duncan Hunter
-Sen. Bob Corker
-Frmer Sen. Trent Lott
-Frmer Sen. Rick Santorum
-Chuck Norris


Palin Endorsements:
-Sen. Jim DeMint
-Rep. Michele Bachmann
-Rep. Steve King
-Gov. Susana Martinez
-Gov. Jan Brewer
-John Raese
-Gov. Nikki Haley
-Sen. Mike Lee
-Sen. Rand Paul
-Sen. John McCain
-Gov. John Kasich
-Gov. Rick Perry
-Sen. Ron Johnson
-Sen. Jim Inhofe


Gingrich Endorsements:
-Gov. Nathan Deal
-Sen. Jeff Sessions
-Rep. Eric Cantor
-Sen. Richard Burr
-Sen. Lamar Alexander
-Sen. John Kyl




Selzer and Co.: Iowa GOP Poll

Huckabee: 31%
Romney:25%
Palin:24%
Gingrich:14%

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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #208 on: January 04, 2011, 01:23:16 pm »

I love how out of place Chuck Norris looks on that list of endorsements. All these people with high-rank titles and then, out of nowhere, "Chuck Norris."

Anyway - keep it up. Grin
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #209 on: January 04, 2011, 02:01:01 pm »

haha I agree with svensson
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #210 on: January 05, 2011, 11:33:41 am »

30 DECEMBER 2011

With only days until the Iowa Caucus, pollsters are making final calls.

It seems that Huckabee is set to pull off another Iowa win. In the general election, Huckabee and Romney essentially tie Obama while Gingirch and Palin trail badly.

SurveyUSA:
Huckabee- 30%
Romney-26%
Palin-26%
Gingirch-14%

Selzer and Co.Sad
Huckabee-31%
Palin-26%
Romney-25%
Gingrich-15%

General Election Polls: (IA only)

Huckabee- 45%
Obama- 44%

Obama-46%
Romney-44%

Obama-53%
Palin-40%

Obama-52%
Gingrich-38%
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Icefire9
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« Reply #211 on: January 06, 2011, 04:54:40 pm »

Awesome!  This is very beleivable and interesting!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #212 on: January 06, 2011, 06:51:35 pm »

1 JANUARY 2012

In seeking a return to the Senate after a 2-year "hiatus" Democrat Russ Feingold has picked up his first, and probably only challenger, Republican House freshman Sean Duffy. In 2010, Duffy won an open seat that was being vacated by 42-year veteran Democrat David Obey. Citied as one of the most ambitious GOP rising stars, most predict that the Republican establishment, as well as the majority of the WI Tea Party, will back Duffy.


  
Duffy:
In 2010, the news of my candidacy sent David Obey running for retirement. This year, we will challenge another typical politician; Russ Feingold. In his all too-long 18 years in the Senate, Mr. Feingold supported irresponsible legislation, such as bloated budgets, the job-killing healthcare bill as well as the wasteful stimulus package. Mr. Feingold's Senate record can be characterized as reckless and inconsiderate. In short , Wisconsin cannot allow this tax-and-spend liberal to return to Washington.
That is why I am running for Senate. I want to give the voters of this state the choice that they deserve. The differences between Mr. Feingold and myself could not be more stark. As your Senator, I will follow in the footsteps of Senator Johnson. In this state that has sent Democrats to the Senate for years, my friend Senator Johnson was truly a breath of fresh air. In the House, I have fought for conservative principles; I have offered up amendments to reign in the reckless budget that House Republicans inherited from the Pelosi days. I have made sure our troops and military have had the funds that they need to succeed. I have worked closely with Speaker Boehner and Chairman Paul Ryan to cut funding to wasteful government programs.
In 2010, Republicans put Wisconsin on a new a path to freedom and prosperity. In 2012, I am confident that Wisconsin voters will continue to approve of the Republican's solutions. Thank you!


Feingold Sad
My friends, 2012 is here!! This is our chance! This will be our year to reclaim Wisconsin!! During 2011, while I was teaching at Marquette University, I was also travelling the state, talking to middle class families. Because of the policies of Congressional Republicans are advocating, these hard-working citizens are hurting. That is why I want to go back to the Senate; I will stand up for our middle class just like did for 18 years.
While Representative Ryan is quick to brag about his accomplishments for business, I have rarely heard him discuss his plans for our middle-class and the unemployed. In fact, if it were up to Rep. Duffy, the government would play no role in creating or sustaining jobs, rather, our workers would be at the mercy of market forces. Imagine if FDR shared Mr. Duffy's views! The Great Depression would have lasted for decades! My friends, that is why my opponent is too extreme for Wisconsin.
When I was in the Senate, I was famous for my disdain for lobbyists. So far, Mr. Duffy has taken almost $500,000 from oil and financial interests. Senator Johnson has already proven that he serves the Chamber of Commerce, not the citizens of Wisconsin. We don't need to reward greed again by electing another Republican to the Senate.  


A PPP hypothetical poll back in November found Feingold leading Duffy 46-36, however, to many, Duffy was unkown.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #213 on: January 06, 2011, 07:27:05 pm »

1 JANUARY 2012

With 2012 beginning, here is our Senate polling outlook:



D: 19
R: 9
I: 1
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #214 on: January 08, 2011, 02:10:11 am »

3 JANUARY 2012

The Iowa Caucus

With almost all votes in, the winner is...MIKE HUCKABEE.



As most pollsters and analysts had predicted Huckabee finished strong while Palin and Romney fought for second place. Gingrich finished a distant fourth with less than 12%.




Geographically, Romney was not able to extend his reach beyond the more liberal counties in the east. On the opposite side of the state, we see a similar issue with Palin. While she built up an impressive firewall in the west, and won a few central counties, she underperformed in the northern-central region, as conservatives there broke for Huckabee. Gingrich failed to carry a single county.

"Tonight is a great night not only for my campaign and for Iowa voters, but for the entire conservative grassroots movement that is sweeping the nation. As I've traveled Iowa, and the nation, people have been coming up to me saying "Mike, what are we going to do about our future? Will you please run for President." I felt like I had nothing less than an obligation to the American people; I had to run so that America can have the type of honest government that it deserves. That is why we won tonight; Iowa Republicans approve of my new direction for America. A Huckabee Administration will involve transparent leadership and accountability.
My friends, what we have now is crisis of leadership that must be corrected. Iowa voters showed tonight that they trust my tested, conservative and responsible record of governing. When I go to Washington, I will end this mentality of  trying to 'spend our problems away.' I understand that we must build a new economy by staying within our means and cutting back on waste. I haven't lived my life waiting for the government to rescue me; instead, I knew that the path to prosperity would require me to be hard-working and patient; those are the values I will fight for. As President, I will work closely with Speaker Boehner and Leader McConnell to craft legislation that will carry out these values. We must realize that government today is doing much more harm than good, like wasting our tax dollars with the Stimulus bill and taking choice away from our consumers with the job-killing Healthcare bill. As President, I will fight tooth-and-nail to repeal these massive intrusions of government into our lives, because I believe in the power of the free market, and more importantly, the American people.
My friends, while we will enjoy this victory tonight, tomorrow, its on to New Hampshire. This victory will give our campaign the crucial momentum it needs to go forward in these next few weeks. On to New Hampshire, on to the White House!"
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #215 on: January 08, 2011, 02:11:54 am »

Praise the Lord it wasn't Palin.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #216 on: January 08, 2011, 09:39:02 pm »
« Edited: January 09, 2011, 02:54:33 pm by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

6 JANUARY 2012

While Huckabee emerged from the Iowa caucus with a 6-point victory, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina seem like they will different stories for Huckabee.
Romney and Palin are both approaching 40% in NV and SC, respectively. Interestingly, NH seems like it will be surprisingly close.

University of New Hampshire: GOP Poll
Romney-36%
Palin- 31%
Huckabee- 15%
Gingrich- 9%

Mason-Dixion: NV GOP Poll
Romney- 37%
Palin- 26%
Huckabee- 17%
Gingrich- 10%

Quinnipiac: SC GOP Poll
Palin- 38%
Huckabee- 25%
Gingrich- 16%
Romney- 14%
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #217 on: January 08, 2011, 09:58:07 pm »

I'm hoping that Palin comes closer in New Hampshire and sustains her lead in South Carolina. Still an awesome TL.
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albaleman
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« Reply #218 on: January 08, 2011, 10:00:35 pm »

Excellent! GO PALIN (so that Obama can win in a landslide)!
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #219 on: January 09, 2011, 01:08:34 pm »

Excellent! GO PALIN (so that Obama can win in a landslide)!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #220 on: January 09, 2011, 09:18:32 pm »

6 JANUARY 2012

We can project that Mitt Romney will win the low-profile Wyoming Convention in 2 days. Also, new polling from Michigan shows Romney well ahead. Much of the state Republican Party, including Governor Snyder and Lt. Gov Brian Calley have backed Romney.

Detroit News: GOP Primary Poll
Romney- 41%
Palin- 23%
Huckabee- 19%
Gingrich- 10%

With Gingrich very low in the polls and Huckabee investing heavily in the later-to-come southern states, it looks at this point like a contest between Romney and Palin.

With the New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada primaries approaching, high profile statewide figures in those states are making endorsements:


NH
Sen. Kelly Ayotte is returning a favor from 2010 and endorsing Sarah Palin. Ironically, the man Palin helped Ayotte beat in her primary, Ovide Lamontgne is also getting behing Palin.


The highest endorsement Romney got was from Former Senator Judd Gregg. Gregg, whose father was a Governor, still holds considerable clout with Republicans in his home state. He also remains popular with Independent voters; since this will be an open primary, Gregg will be critical to drawing Independents to vote for Romney.


NV
Romney is winning the endorsement war here. Early on, he was endorsed by Governor Brian Sandoval. Since then, he has been endorsed by Former NV Party Chair Sue Lowden and Congressman Joe Heck. Also, embattled Senator John Ensign has backed him, who is in the fight of his life to keep his party's nomination; Ensign is hoping that Romney, will also endorse him. Senate candidate Dean Heller has yet to endorse. The sole, but influential, major endorsement Palin has received is from 2010 Senate nominee Sharron Angle. Despite her larger-than-expected loss in 2010, Angle is popular with the Tea Party and she is rallying conservatives for Palin.



SC
SC seems to be a reversal of NV, as Palin has racked up far more endorsements here than Romney. Despite Huckabee's southern roots, his campaign isn't very competitive here. Two of Palin's foremost political allies, Sen. DeMint and Governor Haley almost immediately endorsed her. Also, Congressional freshman Mick Mulvaney and Trey Gowdy, who were swept in with the 2010 wave, have campaign for Palin.
Senator Lindsey Graham, a sure 2014 "target" for the tea party, has endorsed Romney, along with Former Congressman Bob Inglis, himself a victim of the tea party. As in NH, Romney's strategy here involves getting Independents to vote Republican. While polls show him trailing by about 13% with only Republicans, Romney will try to net in as many moderate Independents as possible.

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Icefire9
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« Reply #221 on: January 09, 2011, 09:25:17 pm »

It looks like a long drought for Huckabee.  I predict he withers before Super Tuesday.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #222 on: January 10, 2011, 01:23:51 pm »
« Edited: January 13, 2011, 06:14:47 pm by IDS Legislator MilesC56 »

7 JANUARY 2012

In our latest Senate development, it looks like the race to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison has gotten more interesting. Barbara Bush, daughter of former President George W. Bush, has announced that she will seek that seat. Bush (30), would be the youngest woman ever elected to the Senate.
The Republican field already includes State Ag. Commissioner Todd Staples, Rep. Mike Conaway, Rep. Blake Farenthold and Speaker of the TX House Joe Straus.

 

PPP: Texas GOP Poll

While Bush is leading by a solid 14 points, she will probably need to do more campaigning, especially with her father, if she hopes to avoid a runoff. At this point, Bush is definitely looking like the frontrunner.

Do you approve of the job Kay Bailey Hutchison did in the Senate?
Yes- 45%
No- 45%

Do you have a favorable view of George W. Bush?
Yes-71%
No-21%

Who are you leaning towards voting for in the Republican primary?
Bush- 37%
Staples- 23%
Straus- 15%
Conaway- 12%
Farenthold- 11%

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #223 on: January 10, 2011, 03:55:42 pm »

8 JANUARY 2012

Mitt Romney has won the Wyoming GOP Convention.




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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #224 on: January 10, 2011, 03:57:59 pm »

Least surprising primary victory ever.

Stopped by just to say that. Smiley Oh, and keep up the good work. *disappears again*
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