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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Kutasoff Hedzoff, Apocrypha)
  2011 and Beyond...
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #250 on: February 02, 2011, 01:40:52 am »
« edited: February 02, 2011, 01:54:10 am by MilesC56 »

10 FEBRUARY 2012

Today, we have our first look at the 2012 House election.

The pollsters PPP, SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University have compiled a cumulative polling map of all 435 districts.

District Ratings are based on incumbent approvals, district PVI's and hypothetical match-ups.



Analysis:

"Our initial House map finds 197 districts in Democratic hands and 218 districts where the GOP is favored; 20 districts are purely tossups. Thus, the Republicans are starting this election cycle with the bare minimum number of seats needed to keep the House. In order for Speaker Boehner to lose his gavel, Democrats must sweep every "Swing" district and win one additional Republican district. Thats a tall order. We recommend that Democrats steer more funds towards keeping their Senate majority, as it is very unlikely that they will retake the House, at least for now.

However, there is some good news for Democrats. As a result of redistricting, unpopularity, or otherwise, 7 House incumbents are set to lose their seats, only 1 is a Democrat:

-Cravaack-MN
-Dold-IL
-Walsh-IL
-Harris-MD
-Farenthold-TX

-Donnelly-IN
-Meehan-PA

Also, Democrats are in a strong position to pick up two open seats; as Sean Duffy is running for Senate, Dems are likely to reclaim David Obey's seat. Also, Democrats are looking good to take the old House seat of Sen. Frank LoBiondo in New Jersey.

At least for now the GOP is probably going to retain the House, but a lot can change between now and November."


FULL SIZE HOUSE MAP:
http://postimage.org/image/2c182fyw4/full/
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #251 on: February 02, 2011, 09:54:00 am »

Great, but one question: Why would the Oklahoma legislature make Boren's district safer than it currently is? They don't have much to lose by trying to gerrymander him out, considering all of the other districts in the state are very Republican.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #252 on: February 02, 2011, 01:43:10 pm »

Great, but one question: Why would the Oklahoma legislature make Boren's district safer than it currently is? They don't have much to lose by trying to gerrymander him out, considering all of the other districts in the state are very Republican.

I had KS21 do OK for me.

Here's his response:

"Boren is a dynastic name and Boren's father (the popular former Senator) is the haed of OU. The name recognition alone gives him a substantial advantage over a GOP challenger regardless of how his district is designed."

I'd agree. Regardless of where his district is in eastern OK, he'd still be personally popular and he'd have name recognition.
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Miles
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« Reply #253 on: February 02, 2011, 09:18:04 pm »
« Edited: February 04, 2011, 02:21:03 am by MilesC56 »

Late January Senate Polls:



Competitive Races:


Races not likely to be competitive:
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The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein)
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« Reply #254 on: February 03, 2011, 09:25:31 am »

Fraud Purple heart Palin
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #255 on: February 04, 2011, 07:43:11 am »

Update soon??
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Miles
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« Reply #256 on: February 04, 2011, 02:26:03 pm »

EARLY FEBRUARY 2012

This month we have our final few Senate retirements. Two more Democrats have announced that they will not seek reelection. While these retirements are big news, neither of them is likely to put the Democrat's majority in jeopardy.

Popular 5-term New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman, Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, will not be seeking a 6th term. While this is an unusual move for such a powerful Chairman, Bingaman acknowledged that he wanted to step down in order to "better focus on solving America's energy problems while promoting environmentally green solutions." The Senator said that he would be better positioned to do this in some other capacity then as a Senator, although he singled that he would not move to K Street. Some are speculating that President Obama will appoint him to a high-level position within the Department of Energy or the EPA.
In the race to replace him, popular Congressman Ben Ray Lujan said that he would be interested in running should Bingaman retire. Lujan will be running against Pete Domeinici Jr, the son of a former NM Senator. Still, Democrats don't have much to worry about here; Lujan is polling quite strongly.


In Virginia, freshman Senator Jim Webb will not be seeking a second term. Webb maintained that the legislative process was to slow, citing the "languid and often frustrating nature of the Senate." To replace Webb, Democrats have drafted DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, a popular former governor. Kaine will be running against former Sen. George Allen, who lost his seat to Webb in the Democratic wave of 2006. Most polls show Kaine ahead of Allen.


SurveyUSA Polls:

NM:
Lujan- 53%
Domeinici- 38%

VA:
Kaine- 50%
Allen- 45%
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JulioMadrid
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« Reply #257 on: February 04, 2011, 07:39:32 pm »

OK, I'm glad with this retirements. I like Kaine better than I like Webb
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Miles
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« Reply #258 on: February 04, 2011, 09:06:21 pm »

9 FEBRUARY 2012

After the departure of Defense Secretary Robert Gates, President Obama makes some major cabinet changes...


 
"Now, I would like to start off today by thanking Secretary Gates for his long career of service to this nation. His vast knowledge of policy and his grasp of issues, both political and administrative will certainly be missed and difficult to replace. Our next Secretary will have a strong performance to follow. For now, Gordon English will be the acting Secretary of Defense and I look forward to working with him in these next few months.
That said, today I want to lay out my future plans for the Department of Defense. Of course, my plans are contingent on my reelection; which I can assure you, I will be working quite diligently on!
For my second term, I will be appointing our current Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, to lead the Defense Department. Secretary Clinton has done an excellent job in her capacity as Secretary of State and I feel that our Defense Department will benefit from her strong record of legislative and diplomatic strength. While Secretary Gates, incoming Secretary English and myself have been working to mold a more sustainable and financially solid Department of Defense, I feel that Secretary Clinton is best fit to continue our work, as well as to carry out the other duties required for that office. Simply put, Secretary Clinton's impressive resume and her experience makes her quite suited for this office and I look forward to her work.
Now, for the State Department. Starting in January of 2013, Vice President Joe Biden will be leading that Department. Joe has been one of the leading voices in American foreign policy for decades. Joe's work on the Foreign Relations Committee has made him one of the foremost American actors on the international stage. From the Balkans to Iraq, fro  Europe to Afghanistan, Joe has seen it all. Thats why I chose him to be America's new international face."


...which means Obama will need a new VP in 2012.
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Miles
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« Reply #259 on: February 05, 2011, 04:30:37 pm »
« Edited: February 05, 2011, 10:10:19 pm by MilesC56 »

Before I get to Super Tuesday, lets look at Obama's approval ratings, just to see how he's faring.

Approval by state:



NET APPROVAL SCALE


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Mexino Vote
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« Reply #260 on: February 05, 2011, 04:35:49 pm »

How does  Obama have  +1 in NC, a normally R state yet have -10 in Ohio? Just curious.
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Miles
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« Reply #261 on: February 05, 2011, 10:02:25 pm »

How does  Obama have  +1 in NC, a normally R state yet have -10 in Ohio? Just curious.
Unemployment rate:

    Jan. 2011   Jan. 2012
OH    9.3%            9.2%
NC    9.6%            8.2%

estimated Democratic spending so far:
OH: 1.4 Million
NC: 2.7 Million
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #262 on: February 05, 2011, 10:03:36 pm »

A nitpick: Indiana is lighter than Ohio despite having worse approvals.

Tongue This is very detailed. I like it!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #263 on: February 05, 2011, 10:07:30 pm »

A nitpick: Indiana is lighter than Ohio despite having worse approvals.

Tongue This is very detailed. I like it!

Thanks Isaac! You're always here to pick out my mistakes!! hahaha

I think OH is actually too dark.

I'll fix it.
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Miles
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« Reply #264 on: February 08, 2011, 01:19:48 am »

14 FEBRUARY 2012

SUPER TUESDAY

Tonight, I'll start rolling out results from Super Tuesday, I'll be doing this over the course of a few nights.

Lets begin!

♫(election music playing)♫

Our first state to be reporting will be Alabama, where Mike Huckabee has won a decisive victory. Huckabee had the backing of Governor Bentley and his predecessor, Bob Riley.


Huckabee-51%
Palin-36%
Romney-12%

Our next state will be Arkansas, Huckabee's home state. As to be expected, Huck sweeps every county.


Huckabee-61%
Palin-24%
Romney-14%

Team Romney scores a victory in Delaware. Despite the efforts of tea party leader Christine O'Donnell on behalf of Palin, the tea party has left a sour taste in the mouths of DE Republicans.


Romney-52%
Palin-38%
Huckabee-9%

Huckabee, extending his winning streak in the south, will be carrying Georgia by a comfortable margin. After Gingrich dropped out, Governor Deal threw his clout to Huckabee and endorsed the former Arkansas Governor. Also, former Governor Sonny Purdue was one of Huckabee's first and foremost supporters this year. 


Huckabee-50%
Palin-35%
Romney-14%

While Huckabee dominates the south, Romney is strong in the west; he scores a wide victory at the Colorado caucus. Colorado was a bright spot for Romney in his 2008 campaign as well.


Romney-59%
Palin-30%
Huckabee-9%

Palin scores her first victory of the night with a win in Arizona. She had the endorsement of Governor Brewer and stumped with the Arizona Governor. Notably, she did campaign here with her former running mate, John McCain; while McCain has moved to the ideological right, he remains unpopular with the GOP base, thus, he would have been considered a drag on Palin.


Palin-53%
Romney-36%
Huckabee-10%

In Oklahoma, Huckabee has won a close race. Despite the presence of a "Mama Grizzly" in the statehouse, Team Huckabee invested heavily here from the beginning of th campaign season and it seems to have paid off .


Huckabee-42%
Palin-40%
Romney-18%
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #265 on: February 08, 2011, 01:20:51 am »

Oh, thank God, Palin is finally starting to fall in the primaries.

For the love of everything sane, GO HUCKABEE!
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Miles
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« Reply #266 on: February 08, 2011, 02:33:48 pm »

14 FEBRUARY 2012

SUPER TUESDAY PART II

We now have two New England states reporting. To nobody's surprise, Mitt Romney will be sweeping both his home state of Massachusetts as well as Connecticut.



Romney-60%
Palin-26%
Huckabee-13%


Romney-55%
Palin-30%
Huckabee-14%

Mike Huckabee will be scoring a victory in the Show-Me state; his rural appeal has delivered him the Missouri delegates.

Huckabee-45%
Palin-32%
Romney-23%

In Minnesota, Sarah Palin has had considerable help from Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Rep. Chip Cravaack. Thus, she will be winning Minnesota due to high turnout among tea partiers in Bachmann and Cravaack's districts.

Palin-42%
Romney-37%
Huckabee-21%

Despite the rightward drift of the Republican electorate in Utah, Mitt Romney will be sweeping this state as well. In 2008, he got nearly 90% of the vote here, this year, his performance in Utah was worse, but he will still win the state in a 65-point landslide.

Romney-79%
Palin-14%
Huckabee-7%

We can project that Romney can also add the Illinois delegates to his tally; in the campaign, both Huckabee and Palin seemed to prematurely concede IL to invest elsewhere. 

Romney-58%
Palin-22%
Huckabee-20%

In 2008, Mike Huckabee won Tennessee and he has done so again this year. Huckabee had the endorsement of the very popular Governor, Bill Haslam. Palin has the endorsement of 2 TN Representatives, Marsha Blackburn and Scott DesJarlias. While Blackburn's district is located in Huckabee territory, Palin was able to perform surprisingly well in DesJarlias' district. Romney was limited to Nashville.

Huckabee-50%
Palin-38%
Romney-12%

At the West Virginia Convention, Palin, with the help of Senate Candidate John Raese, will be winning a fairly close contest.

Palin-44%
Huckabee-41%
Romney-15%
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #267 on: February 08, 2011, 02:35:40 pm »

Palin's absolutely crap performance on Super Tuesday brightens my fictional day. Cheesy
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #268 on: February 08, 2011, 02:40:10 pm »
« Edited: February 08, 2011, 03:44:27 pm by MilesC56 »

Palin's absolutely crap performance on Super Tuesday brightens my fictional day. Cheesy

Its not over yet...Smiley

We still have about 6 states to go!


With 6 states left to go on Super Tuesday, Palin has fallen to third place.



(Dark gray states are Super Tuesday states that have not reported yet)

Romney-422
Huckabee-402
Palin-345

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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #269 on: February 08, 2011, 04:41:14 pm »

Palin is on track to get 80 delegates for the rest of Super Tuesday at most, from what I can see. Romney has the northeast effectively locked and won, and I don't see Palin winning California any time soon.
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« Reply #270 on: February 09, 2011, 10:29:03 am »

Go Palin haha
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #271 on: February 09, 2011, 09:49:20 pm »

14 FEBRUARY 2012

SUPER TUESDAY PART III



We begin with a surprise.Throughout this campaign, the Romney team has taken the state of New York for granted. Tonight it seems like an energized Upstate conservative base has helped Palin in New York; also lower turnout in the states urban centers has worked against Romney. We can conclude that New York's 90 delegates will be going to Palin.


Palin-43%
Romney-33%
Huckabee-23%

One state down in New Jersey, Palin seems to have done well as well; she has benefited from vote-splitting between the 2 more establishment Republicans. Governor Chrsitie was an early supporter of Palin. She will pull out a narrowly win here.


Palin-37%
Romney-33%
Huckabee-29%

Moving westward, Romney will be winning the trio of North Dakota, Montana and California. The very popular ND Senator John Hoeven endorsed Romney while in Montana Gubernatorial candidate and former Congressman Denny Rehberg went for Palin but failed to deliver for her.



Romney-49%
Huckabee-29%
Palin-22%



Romney-40%
Palin-31%
Huckabee-28%



Romney-48%
Palin-36%
Huckabee-16%

Finally, what could be our most interesting result. Palin has won Alaska...barely. Projections have Romney within less than 1000 votes of Palin. Its seems that the 'home state effect' has saved her.


Palin-36.5%
Romney-36.4%
Huckabee-27%





Romney-645
Palin-511
Huckabee-402
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« Reply #272 on: February 09, 2011, 09:58:15 pm »

This is looking like the 2008 Democratic primary except with 3 people, although Romney seems to have the advantage, particularly with Palin and Huckabee splitting votes.

Good job!
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Miles
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« Reply #273 on: February 10, 2011, 06:06:18 pm »

Looking at the next set of primaries...

KS Caucus
Palin-37%
Huckabee- 32%
Romney-20%

DC
Romney-56%
Palin-14%
Huckabee-11%

MD
Romney-51%
Palin-25%
Huckabee-16%

VA
Huckabee-35%
Palin-32%
Romney-18%
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #274 on: February 10, 2011, 06:58:10 pm »

This primary is awesome. Pretty much anyone can win. Cheesy
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