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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Austere Religious Scholar, Apocrypha)
  2011 and Beyond...
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Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 130645 times)
Miles
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« Reply #325 on: March 03, 2011, 02:37:49 pm »

6 MARCH 2012

Tonight, we will have Republican voters from 5 more states weigh in on who their party's nominee should be.

We begin in the Northeastern states of Vermont and Rhode Island. In both of these states, regional son Mitt Romney has garnered nearly 70% of the vote.

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Romney-67%
Palin-30%

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Romney-69%
Palin-28%

Moving southward to the state of Ohio, the candidates are locked in a race that, at the moment is too close to call. Counties in gray have less than 50% of precincts reporting. Palin seems to be clinging onto a .8% lead, but the seven counties that have not reported yet will likely decide the winner.

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Palin-48.9%
Romney-48.1%

Moving southward still, Palin scores big wins in Texas and Mississippi. In both those states, Huckabee had a solid support base; it seems that tonight the would-be Huck voters have moved heavily towards Palin.

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Palin-57%
Romney-40%

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Palin-61%
Romney-36%


Palin celebrates with supporter Rick Perry
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #326 on: March 03, 2011, 02:44:02 pm »

Damn it, Huckabee, you could have foiled her. Angry
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Cath
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« Reply #327 on: March 03, 2011, 03:21:02 pm »

Damn it, Huckabee, you could have foiled her. Angry
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Miles
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« Reply #328 on: March 03, 2011, 04:39:37 pm »

ROMNEY WINS OHIO....PALIN SURPASSES ROMNEY IN OVERALL TALLY BY ONE DELEGATE

With regards to Ohio, it looks like Romney will actually be taking the 83 delegates from that stata.

The 7 remaining counties have reported (they are darker than the rest). Of those, Romney has taken 5 to Palin's 2.

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Romney-49.0%
Palin-47.9%



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Palin-861
ROMNEY-860
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #329 on: March 03, 2011, 04:43:00 pm »

For the record, when I was assigning delegate numbers to the individaul states, I had no idea that the numbers would turn out this way...

I was actually expecting Romney to be ahead at  this point. I didn't expect he'd be trailing...by one delegate!!!

This really does make this race a pure tossup, doesn't it!
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Miles
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« Reply #330 on: March 03, 2011, 05:54:42 pm »

6 MARCH 2010

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Other than the Presidential Primary, the first Senate primary of the 2012 cycle took place today. in The main event was the four-way primary to replace Se. Kay Bailey Hucthison. The winner of this first ballot is the daughter of former President George W. Bush, Laura Bush. While tea partiers had hoped to replace KBH with a more conservative Republican, the Bush family spent an enormous amount to political capital here and the Bush brand is still strong with Texas Republicans. Barbara's parents and grandparents all made many campaign stops and stump speeches on behalf of her; Hutchison also endorsed Bush. Based on tonights results, Bush and state Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples will be forced into a runoff.

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Bush-45%
Staples-29%

Straus-14%
Conaway-11%
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #331 on: March 03, 2011, 10:34:26 pm »

If Romney can take the rest of the West, which shouldn't be hard in the slightest, along with Pennsylvania, I strongly suspect he'll win.
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Miles
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« Reply #332 on: March 04, 2011, 09:56:23 am »

Romney supporters can now breath a sigh of relief as results from Guam, Puerto Rico and American Samoa have just come in. Romney will be sweeping all three of these, bringing an extra 32 deleagte sto his column. The total now stands at...

Romney-892
Palin-860
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #333 on: March 04, 2011, 06:52:27 pm »

Go, PAlin!!!
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Cath
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« Reply #334 on: March 04, 2011, 07:52:18 pm »

Another Bush in politics! The name lives on, hopefully with better memories than the last time.
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America™
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« Reply #335 on: March 04, 2011, 08:31:27 pm »

This is an AMAZING TL. Please continue.
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« Reply #336 on: March 06, 2011, 07:19:45 pm »

This is an AMAZING TL. Please continue.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #337 on: March 08, 2011, 03:19:50 pm »

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Miles
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« Reply #338 on: March 08, 2011, 07:45:07 pm »


TRAGEDY IN MINNESOTA

SENATOR AL FRANKEN SHOT******SENATOR AL FRANKEN SHOT

While attending a town hall meeting this weekend, Senator Al Franken has been shot and killed by a tea party protestor. The events unfolded as Franken was leaving an annual town hall in St. Cloud at about 6:00 P.M. Franken was subsequently rushed to the hospital, but the shots, landing in the senator’s torso region, proved to be fatal and Franken died within minutes. The suspect was promptly taken down after two shots were fired and he was subsequently detained. Franken was 60.

The suspect was identified as Mr. Jarett Lee Loughnerr. Loughnerr, a local tea party activist and organizer, has had his mental health questioned many times within the last week. In interviews, his friends and fellow tea partiers  have observed that he was acting “peculiar” and that he “was approaching the edge”, as they cited strange behavior such as staying up late at night and not answering phone calls. Both friends and relatives said that Loughner had frequent and random mood swings. At the present time, Loughner is incarcerated and awaits trial.

Al Franken was known as an ardent defender of progressive ideas in the Senate. Elected in the Democratic wave of 2008, he ousted incumbent Norm Coleman and vowed to legislate in the manner of his friend, the late Senator Paul Wellstone. Senator Franken will be best remembered for his legislation defending the rights of women, his work on behalf of students, and his efforts to expand healthcare to all Americans.

During this last round of town hall meetings, Franken was making his pitch to revisit the 2010 Healthcare Bill. Specifically, Franken, along with Senator Jeff Merkley of Oregon, had introduced legislation in February to add a provision to create a government-funded public option. Many liberals were disappointed when a public option was not ultimately included in the final healthcare bill; some progressive shave been campaigning on amending the bill to include one. Of course, with a split Congress, this provision was unlikely to pass anyway, as it was more of a symbolic gesture. 


In the wake of Franken’s death, many are pointing to Fox News host Bill O’Reilly for motivating Loughnerr. O’Reilly and Franken had an ongoing feud. O’Reilly was one of the subjects of Franken’s many books attacking conservatives in the media. During the past month, O’Reilly had referred to Franken as a “pinhead” and a “morally detestable and vile human being.” Media Matters and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee are sponsoring a petition calling for O’Reilly to resign from Fox; they have already garnered over 10,000  signatures.


In the wake of Senator Franken’s death, Governor Mark Dayton will appoint his successor.

“My friends and fellow Minnesotans, yesterday was a day of great darkness for our state. The all too early and tragic death of Senator Franken was unnecessary and justice will be administered in the proper fashion. I have called Al’s wife, Franni, and his family and offered my sincerest condolences and I have pledged to help them in any way possible during these difficult weeks. ...
…today, I will appoint Congresswoman Betty McCollum. Betty has been a workhorse for the people of her district and I believe that she will fill Senator Franken’s large shoes; she has a record of success in the House and I am proud to send her to Senate. Betty was a friend of Al and I trust that she will carry on his legacy in the Senate.
Working with the Secretary of State, I have scheduled a special election that will coincide with the regular 2012 Senate elections. As a result, this year, both Minnesota seats will be up for election.”


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Cath
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« Reply #339 on: March 08, 2011, 07:51:11 pm »

I think the fact that your avatar is red might have had an affect on the latest post. Tongue Still, good timeline.
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Miles
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« Reply #340 on: March 08, 2011, 08:30:19 pm »

I think the fact that your avatar is red might have had an affect on the latest post. Tongue Still, good timeline.

Why?
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Cath
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« Reply #341 on: March 08, 2011, 09:06:29 pm »

I think the fact that your avatar is red might have had an affect on the latest post. Tongue Still, good timeline.

Why?

Democratic Senator killed by Tea Party crazy, Tea Party and Bill O'Reilly get blamed.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #342 on: March 08, 2011, 09:25:13 pm »

Well, looks like the theofascists struck again, eh? I really wonder what a good final solution to this problem would look like...
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #343 on: March 09, 2011, 09:08:55 am »

SAFE DEM SEAT, I hope =)
It should be mccollum vs. bachmann... the crazy teabagger running for a seat which's open because of a crazy teabagger haha...
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #344 on: March 10, 2011, 03:50:52 pm »

I think the fact that your avatar is red might have had an affect on the latest post. Tongue Still, good timeline.

Why?

Democratic Senator killed by Tea Party crazy, Tea Party and Bill O'Reilly get blamed.
I agree, but because of my red avatar, I don't mind.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #345 on: March 10, 2011, 08:16:10 pm »

Campaign updates/Candidates announcements


Maine
Image Link
After years of political speculation, Senator Olympia Snowe has decided to leave the Republican party, at least nominally. Snowe will be seeking a 4th term as an Independent candidate; however, she has maintained that if reelected, she would continue to caucus with the GOP. Snowe citied the GOP's ideological drift to the right as well has her moderate record during her press conference, though many saw her poor numbers with Republican primary voters as a key factor in her choice. Tea Party Governor Paul LePage said that he will stand by his endorsement of Snowe. The likely Democratic nominee will be former ME House Speaker Hannah Pingree. The Republicans will almost certainly nominate either Andrew Ian Dodge, a tea partier.

Snowe- Republican Primary Approval- 35/59

ME General Election
Snowe*- 52%
Pingree- 27%
Dodge- 15%

North Carolina
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After being dealt a bad hand during the 2011 redistricting session, Rep. Larry Kissell has opted to run statewide rather than seek a third House term. Kissell's 8th district, along with Brad Miller in the 13th, were the main targets of the Republican Legislature. While the old NC-08 gave Obama a 5-point win, its new configuration would have gone for McCain by 12 points. Kissell will be running to succeed Secretary of State Elaine Marshall; Marshall will be stepping down after 18 years in office.
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Indiana
Blue Dog Joe Donnelly will be following Kissell's lead and run for statewide office rather than running a much redder district. Donnelly's current R+2 district would have a projected PVI of at least R+6 in its new form. He will be running to become the 1st Democratic Treasurer since 1978; that office is being vacated by Richard Mourdock as he seeks to unseat Sen. Dick Lugar.

Ohio
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Much to the dismay of liberals, Sen. Sherrod Brown gets a more formidable challenger in Lt. Governor Mary Taylor. Brown leads Rep. Jean Schmidt, but Taylor would make this one of the closest races in the county. Taylor, a rising star in the party, is considered to be running ahead of the establishment Schmidt in the primary.
More troublesome for Brown is that he has garnered a primary challenge from the right. Former Rep. Steve Driehaus, who lost a close race in 2010, maintains that Brown is too liberal for Ohio. Dreihaus claims that he is more electable than Brown.
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Utah
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After a decade of trying to take out political survivor Jim Matheson, Utah Republicans  have conceded a Democratic district during redistricting. Matheson's new district, consisting mainly of Salt Lake City and Summit County, would actually be fairly left-leaning. Therein lies an intrinsic problem for Matheson; he is now extremely vulnerable to being tossed out in the primary. Matheson has a scare at the 2010 Convention;, he only got 55% against Brigham Young's  liberal great-great granddaughter, Claudia Wright. Wright is seeking a rematch.
Some have speculated that Matheson will enter the Senate race rather than run for the House; he would benefit from a Republican electorate split between Independent Orrin Hatch and the GOP nominee.

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #346 on: March 15, 2011, 06:29:13 pm »

Sorry for the slow pace here. Its midterms week, so I'm having a busy time.

I'll try to have an update by the weekend.

Thanks,

Miles
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #347 on: March 19, 2011, 11:52:11 pm »

Hey guys,

I still have one more exam hovering over my head (economics). The good news is that it will out of the way soon (Monday morning at 7:30 Sad ); so I'll have an update soon after that.

Thanks
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Miles
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« Reply #348 on: March 22, 2011, 03:05:07 pm »

APRIL 5 2012

PALIN AND ROMNEY STILL TRADING PUNCHES WITH VICTORIES

It looks like the virtual stalemate between Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, the two Republican presidential contenders left standing, will be extending until the next round of primaries. Tonight, we will bring you results from the Keystone state as well as the Bluegrass state. Both of these primaries have been moved up a few weeks from their 2008 dates for the 2012 cycle.

We begin in Pennsylvania. Here, Romney has carried the day. This state was obviously critical in the primary because is it often one of the most contested states in the general election. Republicans have strived for the last two years to really bring back their brand here. Despite the wide unpopularity of other Republican governors in the industrial Midwest, Governor Corbett has tried not to politically 'overreach' and has kept a relatively moderate profile.  As such, Corbett's endorsement went to Romney. Also, Senator Pat Toomey's has moved more towards the political center; he only won narrowly in 2010 despite his tea party backing. The latest evidence of Toomey's moderation is his endorsement of Romney.

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Romney-55.4%
Palin-44.0%

In Kentucky, the Palin campaign cruises to an easy win. Romney was never particularly popular in the south and Kentucky seems to be no exception. Senator Rand Paul was a strong supporter of Palin as well.

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Palin-57.8%
Romney-41.7%


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ROMNEY-963
PALIN-908
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #349 on: March 22, 2011, 05:06:40 pm »

Go Palin, you're almost there!!
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