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  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Admiral Lord Horatio D'Ascoyne, Apocrypha)
  2011 and Beyond...
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Miles
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« Reply #350 on: March 22, 2011, 07:40:54 pm »
« edited: March 27, 2011, 07:13:31 pm by Robert Byrd Revivalist »

2012 Gubernatorial Polls



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Miles
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« Reply #351 on: March 27, 2011, 07:06:41 pm »

16 APRIL 2012

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO INDIANA

TOP PALIN ADVISOR: "IF PALIN LOSES INDIANA....SHE WILL DROP OUT"


"With the April 24th Indiana primary dominating Republican politics, the Palin camp is rumored to be taking an all-or-nothing approach. Top Republican leaders have insisted that the longer Romney and Palin are fighting, the better off Obama will be in the fall. Increasingly, Republicans voters want to see a clear end to this primary season.
Enter Indiana. While traditionally a red state, Obama was able to prevail here in 2008. As such, this state will be pivotal not only in the general election, but also in the primary. Both Republicans have been pouring money into the local media markets.
The Palin campaign, trailing by a meager 55 delegates, is banking on the growing tea party base in the state. However, national Republicans are pressuring her to drop out if she does not win this primary. In essence, they are giving her 'one last shot.' Still, Palin, never one to abide the rank-and-file party organization, insists that she will make the ultimate decision of whether or not to stay in the race, not the "party bosses." However, two aides very close with the Palin campaign have said that if she does not win IN, she will in fact, concede.
Predictably, the national tea party is campaigning around the clock for Palin. Palin has made several campaign  stops with Indiana Senate hopeful Richard Mourdock, who hopes to topple the 'RINO' Richard Lugar in the Senate primary. Thankfully for Lugar, the Senate and Presidential primaries will not be held on the same day. Governor Daniels will make an endorsement on the 20th.

Talk radio personalities have also weighed in on the impact of this primary:

Mark Levin:

"I know we have a large audience in the Hooiser state. To all our brothers in that state, I urge you to choose liberty over soft tyranny. This Romney is a damn fool, an idiot! This fool ain't even close to a conservative! Heck, I'd almost even rather McCain. The healthcare law that Romney passed in Massachusetts was unforgivable; he's just another lib. Massachusetts is one of the great shining beacon's of statism. He's unprincipled! If we Republicans keep electing these sellouts with no principles, we'll never get America back on track! We have a great, brilliant, smart, constitutional conservative in Sarah Palin. By far, the superior candidate and the true Reaganite. After Palin wins, we're gonna dump that sellout Lugar too! Indiana will be the model for a conservative comeback in 2012!" The cost of defeat is too high

Rush Limbaugh:

"I don't see what the appeal of Romney is. In terms of fundraising, passion and ground game, Palin seems to be the better choice. I'm sick of this mentality that some Republicans have: "Well, if I act more like a Democrat, maybe I'll have a better chance of winning!" Mitt Romney has that mentality! Why bother voting for Romney; Obama would be just as good! This isn't the standard we should hold ourself to! Sure, Palin has some weaknesses, but none of them undermine core conservative causes. Romney would just go along with Obamacare: "We don't have to repeal it, we just need to make it better! Lets make America more like Massachusetts!" No! Hell no!


Polling shows a pure tossup.

PPP
Romney: 47%
Palin:46%

Rasmussen (R)
Palin: 45%
Romney: 43%

SurveyUSA
Romney: 48%
Palin: 47%

Quinnipiac
Palin:48%
Romney:46%
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InvisibleTrump
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« Reply #352 on: March 27, 2011, 07:12:32 pm »

Robert Byrd Revisionist-like the name. As a Libertarian, I hate him. Being from a West Virginia family, we loved him.
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Miles
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« Reply #353 on: March 27, 2011, 07:20:24 pm »
« Edited: March 27, 2011, 08:08:07 pm by Robert Byrd Revivalist »

Robert Byrd Revisionist-like the name. As a Libertarian, I hate him. Being from a West Virginia family, we loved him.

I love Robert Byrd; I have family from WV also.

My dad always says that West Virginia is a good place to be from!
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Miles
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« Reply #354 on: March 28, 2011, 12:38:39 am »

17 APRIL 2012



We have news from the Lone Star state! In the GOP primary to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison, Barbara Bush has defeated TX Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples.
Bush, despite her socially moderate stances on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage, was able to defy the tea party by defeating Staples due to her family's political clout and her ability to attract independent voters.
Hutchison, who was a strong supporter of Bush, said that she was "overjoyed with this victory" and said that Bush represents a "new generation of Republican leadership."
In the fall, Bush will face off against 2006 Gubernatorial candidate Kinky Freidman; she is heavily favored to retain the seat for Republicans.
 




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tmthforu94
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« Reply #355 on: March 28, 2011, 10:16:38 am »

Romney and Lugar will both have me campaigning hard for them in Indiana, so they'll obviously win. Wink
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« Reply #356 on: March 28, 2011, 04:05:49 pm »

hopefully, palin wins in IN
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InvisibleTrump
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« Reply #357 on: March 28, 2011, 04:12:53 pm »

Robert Byrd Revisionist-like the name. As a Libertarian, I hate him. Being from a West Virginia family, we loved him.

I love Robert Byrd; I have family from WV also.

My dad always says that West Virginia is a good place to be from!

I wish I was from there Sad My whole family is from Braxton County.
Oh well-I will have to make do with Florida.
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Miles
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« Reply #358 on: March 28, 2011, 04:52:53 pm »

Robert Byrd Revisionist-like the name. As a Libertarian, I hate him. Being from a West Virginia family, we loved him.

I love Robert Byrd; I have family from WV also.

My dad always says that West Virginia is a good place to be from!

I wish I was from there Sad My whole family is from Braxton County.
Oh well-I will have to make do with Florida.

Nice; some of my dad's family still lives in a small town in Kanawha county, near Charleston. Its a beautiful state.

I love the politics of West Virginia too!
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Miles
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« Reply #359 on: March 28, 2011, 05:58:45 pm »
« Edited: April 10, 2011, 06:55:31 pm by MilesC56 »

Since I started in 2011, I didn't get to cover the 2010 Senate midterms. Here were the results:



Just a few differences from the actual results:

AR- Blanche Lincoln survives a close race against State Legislator Gilbert Baker. John Boozman decides to stay in the House and is named the House Republican Conference Chair. Both the Democratic and GOP primaries are bloody. Lincoln manages to fend off Lt. Gov. Bill Halter by a 53-47 margin; Baker defeats legislator Jim Holt in a bitter 51-49 runoff. Baker is an extremely gaffe-prone candidate; a recording was released of him calling Lincoln a "bitch" and questions arose about his allegedly corrupt ties to a lobbyist during his time in the AR legislature. Still, Lincoln won by a thin 47-45. Third party candidates got nearly 8% of the vote in this race.

CT - Despite the financial scandals surrounding him, Senator Chris Dodd decides to seek reelection. Dodd narrowly escapes a primary challenge from 2006 candidate Ned Lamont. In the general election, Dodd faced Governor Jodi Rell. Rell won 53-44.

FL: This became more of a two-way tossuup between Crist and Rubio. Rubio wins with 39% to Crist's 37% and Meek's 22%.


And the Gubernatorial races...



Pretty much the same except for:

OH- Ted Strickland's superior ground game pays off. He is able to hold onto his job by 618 votes out of roughly 3.9 million votes cast.

MN- Due to extremely low levels of DFL turnout, Mark Dayton losses to Tom Emmer by about 5,000 votes.

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« Reply #360 on: April 07, 2011, 01:00:52 pm »

BUMP!
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Miles
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« Reply #361 on: April 10, 2011, 02:28:17 am »

24 APRIL 2012

THE DECIDING NIGHT



After a long and expansive Republican primary, the unofficial consensus among party officials is that the winner of Indiana will go on win the party nomination. Both candidates acknowledged that anymore prolonged infighting will likely hurt the party's chances of taking the White House. Both candidates have done extensive campaigning here and have increased their clout with Indiana voters, a critical swing electorate in the general election. The tea party has funneled millions for Palin while most of the state Republican party has lined up behind Romney. The results from this round of voting will also serve as somewhat a preview for the competitive Senate primary between Sen. Lugar and challenger Richard Mourdock.


With 80% of precincts reporting, Romney has maintained a consistent lead of about 5 points, which seems to be holding up. The AP has called the election for him.



ROMNEY- 51.8%
PALIN- 46.6%
 



My friends, the results are in, and we have been declared the winner! I really could not have done this without your support! Thank you Indiana Republicans!! Because of your votes, and the countless hours my dedicate volunteers have worked, not only here in Indiana, but all across America, our campaign has the necessary momentum that will propel us to victory in November.
I want to extend my sincerest admiration and gratitude to Governor Palin. I just got off the phone with her. She was gracious her concession and I look forward to working with her in the fall for a Republican victory. More importantly, Governor Palin's presence in this race offered Republicans a choice and gave them the opportunity to test us on the issues that matter most to Americans. I enjoyed her spirited competition, and also that Speaker Gingrich and Governor Huckabee during the earlier stages of the primary. Again, Governor Palin is a great asset to the Republican movement and she has my deepest respect and esteem.
Moving forward, our focus will be the focus of the American people; the need for jobs, economic prosperity and the need to control a Washington DC that sees almost no limit to its reaches. My approach will be crafted to emphasize both short and long-term sustainability and prosperity. Put simply, a return to time-tested Republican polices will result in a stronger America. I know that my experience both in private and public sectors will be a welcome change in the White House. My friends, President Obama and I have substantial differences, differences that will only become more apparent in these coming months. I look forward to the aggressive campaigning, ardent travelling and energetic debating that these next months will entail.
Thank you Indiana!! Lets enjoy tonight! The second part of our road to the White House will begin tomorrow!

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« Reply #362 on: April 10, 2011, 10:07:00 am »

so, lugar will also win his primary?!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #363 on: April 10, 2011, 12:14:40 pm »

I think you're just throwing me a bone by giving Romney 60% in my county. Tongue  Pretty reasonable map, actually. I think Romney could win Clay County, but probably not by that much, and Owen County would probably vote for Palin, as it is very rural. Would expect Romney to mainly be strong up around Chicago and in Marion County and surrounding suburbs.

Good job! Great to see Romney win. Smiley
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #364 on: April 10, 2011, 12:15:56 pm »

No! No no no no no!
I just hope Mourdock wins his primary...
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Miles
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« Reply #365 on: April 10, 2011, 12:25:20 pm »

I think you're just throwing me a bone by giving Romney 60% in my county. Tongue 

Wink
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Miles
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« Reply #366 on: April 10, 2011, 02:43:49 pm »

REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES UP IN THE AIR

With less than a month to go until two of the most competitive primaries in the county, the tea party is looking to capture Senate seats in Indiana and Nevada.



In Indiana, Senator Dick Lugar is trying to fend off a tea-filled challenge from Treasurer Richard Mourdock in the May 1 primary. The tea party is emphasizing Lugar's more liberal stances on immigration, his support for both of Obama's Judicial nominees and his moderate social record. Mourdock is also trying to label Lugar as out-of-touch with his constituents and has run as a much more conservative alternative.
While Lugar had an initial lead in the polls, he fell behind. However, since then, Lugar has run a better campaign than Moudock and seems to have the momentum.
Lugar's fate will largely be determined by his ability to turn out Independents in the open primary. Among only registered Republicans, Mourdock has a 47-44 lead; however, Independents break towards Lugar by a 59-36 margin.


In the general election, either Republican would be favored to win against 2008 Gubernatorial candidate Jill Long Thompson. Lugar would lead Thompson by 28 points while Mourdock would post a less impressive 10 point lead.

General election

Lugar- 61%
Thompson- 33%

Mourdock- 49%
Tompson- 39%




The May 15 Nevada primary has become a a free-for-all. Initially Dean Heller was considered the favorite to topple the scandal-plagued incumbent John Ensign; thankfully, for Ensign, the entrance of tea party challenger Sharron Angle changed the dynamic of this race. Both Ensign and Angle, rather than attacking each other, are both investing heavily in negative Heller attack ads. Ensign has consistently hovered around 32% while Heller has fallen from the high-40's to the mid-30's; Angle's level of support has risen dramatically to almost 30%.
In the general election, both Ensign and Angle would trail Democrat Dina Titus while Heller would still lead her, albeit by a reduced margin.




General election (with trend lines)

Titus- 45% (43)
Ensign- 36% (40)

Titus- 40% (37)
Heller- 46% (45)

Titus- 46% (46)
Angle- 35% (37)
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« Reply #367 on: April 11, 2011, 10:26:30 am »

GO Angle!!

democrats for angle! liberals for angle!! haha
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Miles
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« Reply #368 on: April 13, 2011, 01:05:09 pm »

I'm having a real rough week guys. I wanted to update the TL this week so here we go (this is kinda the bare minimum):



In the Minnesota special election, former Senator Norm Coleman will be trying to reclaim his old seat. The interim Senator, Betty McCollum was appointed after the assassination of Senator Al Franken, who beat Coleman in 2008 by less than 400 votes. McCollum has said that she will be running to fill in out the remaining 2 years of Franken's term. While Coleman was a top-tier Republican recruit, he is still expect to have an uphill battle; he will have both Obama and Klobuchar above him on the ticket.

MN Senate polls:

Klobuchar- 60%
Collett- 31%

McCollum- 48%
Coleman- 41%
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #369 on: April 13, 2011, 05:58:27 pm »

Go Mourdock!!!!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #370 on: April 13, 2011, 09:54:17 pm »

Go Lugar! Hopefully Indiana Republicans will value integrity and character in this timeline and grant Lugar another term.
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Miles
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« Reply #371 on: April 17, 2011, 02:13:46 am »

1 MAY 2012

A MIXED NIGHT FOR THE TEA PARTY

Tonight, the first night of major non-Presidential primaries, we have results from two-highly contested and closely watched races; Indiana and North Carolina.

We begin in Indiana. Tonight, Senator Dick Lugar is fighting for his political life. With only 64% of precincts reporting, Lugar is clinging to less than a 2% lead. Despite polling suggesting Lugar in extremely perilous straits as he trailed Mourdock, he was able to mount a comeback within the last few days leading up to the primary.

64% of precincts reporting...


Gray counties have less than 50% reporting

Lugar-49.7%
Mourdock- 48.4%

Looking at the Indiana exit polls we can deduce a few things about the race and look for indications of the eventual outcome:

- The Republican primary electorate consisted of 61% Republicans, 32% Independents and 7% Democrats

-Registered Republicans voted for Moudock by a roughly 57-43 margin. Independents, by contrast, broke towards Lugar by a huge 65-32 split; Lugar was extremely lucky that Indiana has an open primary system. Democrats nearly broke even; some seemed genuinely like Lugar, but some wanted the GOP to nominate the weaker candidate.




In North Carolina, former state Republican Party Chairman Robin Hayes, who ran as a conservative insurgent, has upset former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, denying him a rematch with Gov. Bev Perdue. Hayes called McCrory out-of-touch with the more conservative rural parts of the state and labelled him as an unprincipled, big-government Republican. During the last few weeks of the campaign, the tea party dumped $3 million into the smaller rural media markets in the state for Hayes. McCrory ran up predictably large margins in Charlotte and the Research Triangle, but it was not enough to save him. With virtually all precincts in, Hayes is maintaining a .9% lead.



Hayes- 48.9%
McCrory- 48.0%

Team Perdue is certainly breathing easier after this primary. Bev Perdue cruised to victory with 76% of her primary vote, despite her lacking statewide approval ratings. Recent polls had her trailing McCrory, but leading Hayes. While Perdue is certainly not out of the woods yet, she is expected to have an easier time retaining her seat.

PPP- NC Governor Polls (April 25-28)

Perdue- 39%
McCrory- 48%

Perdue- 43%
Hayes- 41%

Perdue Approval- 37/47
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« Reply #372 on: April 17, 2011, 06:34:33 am »

Looking at IN map, I think Mourdock will win by 0.5 to 1%
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #373 on: April 17, 2011, 04:15:03 pm »

Too bad that Indiana doesn't have a closed primary system. That way Lugar would be toast.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #374 on: April 18, 2011, 07:49:45 pm »

Thankfully Indiana has an open primary system, otherwise one of the nation's few sane Senators would be toast.
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