Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 18, 2019, 06:38:03 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Kalwejt, Apocrypha)
  2011 and Beyond... (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: 2011 and Beyond...  (Read 130696 times)
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« on: November 10, 2010, 02:36:58 pm »

Good for Lieberman! Smiley
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2010, 06:00:48 pm »

I would support Hostettler to primary Lugar. The Tea Partys best bet if both Pence and Daniels both run for President or Pence runs for governor and Daniels for President. If not be prepared for Jackie Walorski.
I can promise you, Jackie won't challenge Lugar. If anything, she'll run against Donnelly in 2012. Republicans in the state are going to try and make that district as winnable for her as possible.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2010, 11:58:38 pm »

This is great! Smiley
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2010, 09:09:47 am »

Just making sure I'm not seeing things, did we just go in reverse to cover this?
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2010, 12:54:13 pm »

Great! Smiley My only real nitpick that I can see is Kansas, where I don't see the all Republican legislature creating a toss-up district right next to a safe Republican district.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2011, 11:21:55 am »

Christine Todd Whitman seems to be the obvious choice here, though Christie could decide to go with his Lt. Governor.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2011, 11:29:22 pm »

I don't see how a revision of the state party platform would change the results of the election that much. Maine is Romney Country, and will remain Romney Country in 2012. And on the off chance Palin were to ever win it, it would be razor-thin, at least.

Other than that, this is good! Keep it up Smiley
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2011, 09:54:00 am »

Great, but one question: Why would the Oklahoma legislature make Boren's district safer than it currently is? They don't have much to lose by trying to gerrymander him out, considering all of the other districts in the state are very Republican.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2011, 10:03:36 pm »

A nitpick: Indiana is lighter than Ohio despite having worse approvals.

Tongue This is very detailed. I like it!
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #9 on: February 12, 2011, 11:49:14 pm »

Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2011, 12:07:08 am »

Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?

Huckabee and McCain crushed him there in 2008.
McCain and Huckabee also crushed Romney in Ohio. Why? Because Romney had already dropped out of the race.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2011, 12:26:59 am »

Wouldn't Romney have performed better in northern Virginia?

Huckabee and McCain crushed him there in 2008.
McCain and Huckabee also crushed Romney in Ohio. Why? Because Romney had already dropped out of the race.

Oh, really?

Can someone help me with an explanation here??!! lol
Mitt Romney dropped out on February 7th, 2 days after Super Tuesday. Virginia's primary wasn't until the 12th.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #12 on: March 28, 2011, 10:16:38 am »

Romney and Lugar will both have me campaigning hard for them in Indiana, so they'll obviously win. Wink
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2011, 12:14:40 pm »

I think you're just throwing me a bone by giving Romney 60% in my county. Tongue  Pretty reasonable map, actually. I think Romney could win Clay County, but probably not by that much, and Owen County would probably vote for Palin, as it is very rural. Would expect Romney to mainly be strong up around Chicago and in Marion County and surrounding suburbs.

Good job! Great to see Romney win. Smiley
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2011, 09:54:17 pm »

Go Lugar! Hopefully Indiana Republicans will value integrity and character in this timeline and grant Lugar another term.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2011, 07:49:45 pm »

Thankfully Indiana has an open primary system, otherwise one of the nation's few sane Senators would be toast.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2011, 09:45:20 am »

I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/
If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2011, 10:26:40 pm »

I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/
If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform Wink
The only Democrat who could beat Mourdock is Bayh, and he isn't running. I personally would love to see Weinzapfel run, and would support him over many Republicans, but I doubt he would.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2011, 07:16:58 pm »

I don't know if I like those results... I certainly like sen. Lugar, but I'd prefer a moderate democrat taking that seat =( ...

And if the primary was Tmth agains feeble, I guess Tmth would win.. sorry feeble =/
If it makes you feel better, Mourdock would crush Jill Long Thompson. Just about anyone could beat her.

what about Brad Ellsworth or Joe Donnelly? You may consider Ellsworth a conservative democrat, but I'm not sure that's true... he voted FOR the health care reform Wink
The only Democrat who could beat Mourdock is Bayh, and he isn't running. I personally would love to see Weinzapfel run, and would support him over many Republicans, but I doubt he would.

Isn't Weinzapfel a liberal democrat?? He might run if it's clear Lugar will loose the primary. I really don't know.
Remember that Tmth also supports Lugar...and Weinzapfel has, I believe, denied interest in running.
Weinzapfel is center-left, like many Democrats. He just has a proven record of working with both sides in Evansville. He'd probably be better for Governor, though I'd support Pence over him.

I fail to see the point you're trying to make, Feeble. Lugar has a longstanding record as a conservative, bi-partisan Republican.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #19 on: April 25, 2011, 08:03:40 am »

What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

I call that bi-partisan, being ready to work with both sides. I admire Senator Lugar for making efforts to work with President Obama. And he did endorse McCain in 2008. Maybe he didn't in the primaries, but he did in the general election. Picking out a few pieces of legislation Lugar supported in the past few years is not an accurate interpretation of his three decades in Washington D.C., and to suggest it is, well, is quite ridiculous. I could come back with hundreds of times Lugar has stood with the Republican Party.


Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #20 on: April 25, 2011, 12:52:09 pm »

What do you call START? The Automatic Weapons Ban? Comprehensive immigration reform? Appearing in an Obama campaign ad? Chairing Obama's inaugural committee? Praising Obama's foreign policy during the '08 campaign and failing to endorse a candidate? Being on Obama's short-list of potential SOS candidates? That sounds pretty liberal to me.

I call that bi-partisan, being ready to work with both sides. I admire Senator Lugar for making efforts to work with President Obama. And he did endorse McCain in 2008. Maybe he didn't in the primaries, but he did in the general election. Picking out a few pieces of legislation Lugar supported in the past few years is not an accurate interpretation of his three decades in Washington D.C., and to suggest it is, well, is quite ridiculous. I could come back with hundreds of times Lugar has stood with the Republican Party.
Even if Dick Lugar did endorse McCain, I doubt he really meant it. After the second presidential debate, he released a statement praising Obama's foreign policy. And what about his support for Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan? I cannot forgive him for supporting liberal activist judges, either.
And how do you know Lugar didn't mean it? Palm readings? Health Care, Stimulus Packages, DADT...three of the biggest issues during the Obama Administration...three issues Senatore Lugar stood with the GOP on.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2011, 08:55:26 pm »

As I've said many times before, I love your work, Miles! Well done Smiley
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #22 on: June 30, 2011, 02:39:07 pm »

Arkansas could flip with a weaker nominee, but with Romney as the GOP nominee, I can't see it flipping unless he chooses a moderate as his VP, and even then, it'd be close.

My guess is this pick won't be taken to well in the far-left of the party, who already aren't too happy with Obama.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #23 on: July 06, 2011, 12:55:32 pm »

Keep it coming! I look forward to seeing the results Smiley
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,078
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
« Reply #24 on: July 11, 2011, 03:12:17 pm »

Pretty good, though this scenario is obviously very pro-Democratic. Wink Keep it up!
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC