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November 21, 2019, 10:58:19 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

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  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Kenny-chan kawaii princesu, Apocrypha)
  2011 and Beyond... (search mode)
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Miles
MilesC56
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« on: November 09, 2010, 06:45:16 pm »

Hi guys, I did a 2020 timeline on the predictions thread and everyone seemed to enjoy it, so I thought I'd make another one!

I'm going to start with the 2011 Gubernatorial elections and then work my way to 2018 or 2020.

Comments are encouraged and welcomed.

Enjoy!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2010, 06:50:12 pm »
« Edited: November 09, 2010, 06:53:41 pm by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

MAY 2011

Going into the 2011 gubernatorial elections, all three incumbents are popular:

KY-Steve Beshear(D)
Approve-51%
Dissapprove- 42%

Image Link


LA-Bobby Jindal(R)
Approve-59%
Dissapprove-37%

Image Link


MS-Haley Barbour(R) [term-limited]
Approve-61%
Disapprove- 35%

Image Link


In all three states, Obama’s approval rating is hovering around 30%:

KY-35/58
LA-29/64
MS-30/63

KY:
Despite Obama’s -23 net approval in KY, Dixiecrat Steve Beshear remains ahead of his two announced opponents by double digits in the polls, State Legislator Dave Williams and Congressman Brett Guthrie in the polls. While the RGA was initially eying Beshear’s seat, GOP leadership ultimately decided to save its funding for more competitive races in 2012.

Image Link

LA:
Jindal, due to his charisma and Obama’s deep unpopularity in LA, has not drawn any serious competition. The only announced Democrat seeking Jindal’s seat is former Congressman Don Cazayoux of Baton Rouge; Cazayouz is pretty much running to build name recognition. Former judge Chet Traylor, a Republican challenger to David Vitter in 2010, has also filed to run. Jindal has opened with a wide lead in the polls and is heavily favored to win a jungle primary outright, without a runoff.

Image Link


MS:
While Haley Barbour is among the most popular governors in the nation, the GOP primary to pick his successor is heating up. Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant is seen as the establishment favorite, but the Tea Party Express has come in for States Treasurer Tate Reeves. The GOP primary is turning into an all-out proxy war reminiscent of the 2010 GA GOP governor’s primary or the 2010 DE Senate GOP primary.

2012 Republican candidates are trying to put last minute victories on their resumes by endorsing either Reeves or Bryant. Sarah Palin, Jim DeMint, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich put their weight behind Reeves while Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty , Mitch Daniels and John McCain endorsed Bryant. Barbour would not endorse in the primary. Mississippi’s GOP Senators are divided on this race as well; Roger Wicker, fearing a tea party challenge in 2012, endorsed Reeves, but Thad Cochran chose Bryant. The Tea Party Express has reserved $3 million for Reeves’ campaign and a combined total of 2 million has already been spent by both the candidates on negative ads.

Sensing a harsh GOP primary, the Democrats drafted longtime south-Mississippi Congressman Gene Taylor. Taylor, who was narrowly swept up in 2010 GOP wave, often won reelection to the House with 70% or better and still remains favorable. Even better for the Democrats, Taylor will be uncontested in the primary. Taking advantage of the divided Republicans, Taylor has been competitive in the polls by touting his conservative voting record while in the house and emphasizing his leadership during the BP oil leak. Taylor’s main message: "I’m not Obama!!!”

Image Link

Image Link



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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2010, 07:09:13 pm »

It looks like the big contest is going tobe Mississippi. I'm thinking a bloody GOP Primary could hand the election to Taylor.

He would win big in Bennie Thompson's district, probably pretty good in his own (not being sent to rubberstamp Pelosi anymore), but he needs to work on NE MS.

PPP released a survey in May asking whether MS voters would be willing to support Taylor over a generic Republican.

Mississippi polling by Cong. District:
Image Link

Generally speaking, would you support Democrat Gene Taylor for Governor?

District I
Yes-43%
No-52%

District II
Yes-62%
No-32%

District III
Yes-41%
N0-50%

District IV
Yes-53%
No-42%


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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2010, 07:19:32 pm »

By God, this is awesome already. Cheesy Grin Cheesy

Keep it going, and let me know if you need any help. I am a timeline maniac.

Thanks Svenssen! Just sit back and enjoy! lol
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2010, 08:06:12 pm »

On the national scene, things aren't looking particularly good for Democrats;  a generic Republican would get the bare 270 EVs against Obama.

Image Link



Obama Approval:

Gallup: 44/50

Quinnipiac: 44/51

PPP: 45/49

Obama Favorables

Gallup: 46/48

Quinnipiac: 47/49

PPP: 48/47


GOP Favorables:

Romney: 43/40

Huckabee: 42/43

Palin: 36/51

Thune: 38/34

Barbour: 37/40

Gingrich: 38/46

Daniels: 35/24



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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2010, 12:05:03 pm »

JULY 2011

By July, the focal point of the elections is Mississippi. Louisiana and Kentucky have devolved into nothing more than sideshows; Beshear is still leading by double-digits and Jindal is far ahead. However, here are the updated LA and KY numbers.

KY:
KY State Senate President David Williams and his running mate Richie Farmer won the GOP primary. Dan Mongiardo, after a 2010 primary loss, steps down as Beshear’s running mate and is replaced by Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson. The Democrats lead by an average of 10 points.

Image Link

Beshear Approval: 54/43
Obama Approval: 35/57

LA:

This race remained very static; Jindal’s numbers continue to hover slightly under 60% while Cazayoux is stuck in the mid-30’s. Traylor’s campaign has fallen apart, not that he had much of an effort to begin with. Obama’s already poor approval in LA has continued to slide.

Image Link

Jindal Approval: 57/37
Obama Approval: 28/65
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2010, 12:38:12 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2010, 01:37:27 pm by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

BREAKING NEWS  BREAKING NEWS  BREAKING NEWS  BREAKING NEWS


July 20, 2011-After having a major falling-out with progressive Democrats in the Senate over healthcare and education funding, Joe Lieberman schedules a press conference. It seems we have our first major development of the 2012 Senate elections:

Image Link


“After witnessing the intense partisanship displayed by some of my unapologetically liberal colleagues, such as Senator Franken, Senator Durbin and Senator Boxer, I have come to a few conclusions about my future in this chamber. First, I realize that my reelection outlook in 2012 as an independent is very gloomy.  Second, for years I have been looking for an alternative to the ever-more partisan Democratic Party.  Thus, I will be seeking reelection to a 5th term in the Senate as a Republican. As such, I will be leaving the Democratic caucus, of which I’ve been a member for 23 years, and I will be joining my friends on the Republican side.”
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2010, 01:25:44 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2010, 04:37:58 pm by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

From an electoral perspective, Lieberman's swtich was pretty obvious, as he trails badly as an Independent:

PPP hypothetical polls- June, 2011

Lieberman*-16%
Himes[D]- 40%
Rell[R]-32%

Lieberman*-17%
Himes[D]-41%
Foley[R]-31%

Lieberman*-19%
Murphy[D]-39%
Rell[R]-34%

Lieberman*-17%
Murphy[D]- 40%
Foley[R]-33%

Quinnipiac generic poll-May 2011

Lieberman*-20%
Generic D- 44%
Generic R- 27%

Lieberman Overall Favorables- 31/59


Lieberman Favorablity by party:

Democrats: 24/68
Republicans: 48/40
Independents: 36/58
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2010, 01:31:52 pm »

This sounds pretty interesting. Nothing about the presidential candidates yet? Or does this time line focus on non-presidential political happenings?

I'll get to the 2012 Presidential race soon. Right now I'm doing the 2011elections and early developments from the 2012 Senate races.

Trust me...we're gonna have fun with the presidential races!!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2010, 06:13:37 pm »

LATE JULY 2011

Meanwhile in MS, the GOP contest, which is leading up to an early August primary, has gotten downright nasty. It is estimated that Bryant and Reeves have spent a combined total of $9 million, most of which has been spent on negative advertizing. The obvious beneficiary of the divisive primary has been Gene Taylor, who has crept ahead of both Republicans.

Taylor has been running a great campaign operation.  Taylor plans to do the majority of his campaigning in the 2nd and 4th Congressional districts; he plans to elevate black turnout in the heavily Democratic 2nd District while consolidating his standing in his native south-Mississippi 4th District.

The Tea Party express has spent upwards of $3.5 million on Reeves campaign and has deployed several conservative heavyweights on the campaign trail:

Sarah Palin
Image Link

 “The great state of Mississippi needs Tate Reeves’ strong pro-America leadership; as Treasurer, he worked for reduced taxes, less government intrusion and he’s advised reigning in spending. Tate’s opponent is a typical Mississippi RINO and he’s been one of the same-‘ol-same-‘ol big-spending Washington-type Republicans.”

Sharron Angle
Image Link

 “Tate Reeves will stand up for Mississippi’s conservative principles and he will use common-sense remedies to deal with the state’s issues. Tate has a battle-tested, war-ready conservative record.  There is really no reason why this primary should be this close…Mississippi Republicans need to man-up and vote for Tate Reeves.”

Marco Rubio
Image Link

 “In one candidate, Mississippi has a candidate who will defend the Constitutional principles that made this country great. That candidate is Tate Reeves. Tate and I both came from low beginnings but thanks to our limited-government, freedom-loving believes, we made it.”

Conversely, the members Mississippi and national GOP establishment have made many endorsements on behalf of Phil Bryant:

Thad Cochran
Image Link

“In my 33 years representing this great state in the Senate, I have never come across a better Lt. Governor than Phil Bryant. Phil, Haley and I have worked to keep Mississippi strong and Phil is the only candidate who has the executive experience to keep Mississippi going strong. I look forward to working with him”

Mitt Romney
Image Link

“When I first came down to Mississippi, I was very impressed with the state’s overall standing in the nation; Mississippi owes much of its prosperity to the leadership of Haley Barbour and Phil Bryant. I am confident that under Bryant Mississippi will continue to make strides and lead the south.”

Trent Lott
Image Link

“My friends, Mississippi needs Phil Bryant. It would be absolutely foolish to elect a candidate with the inexperience of Tate Reeves. This country faces tough times, we need more governors like Phil Bryant to get out of this ditch that Obama and the Democrat party have left us in.”


Seizing the opportunity to elect a rare Democratic governor in red Mississippi, Dixecrats are very excited to campaign for Gene Taylor. The national DGA has deployed many Dixiecrats to go to bat for Taylor.

Mary Landrieu
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“It is the best interest of our Gulf Coast that Gene Taylor be elected this state’s next governor. In Congress, Gene and I fought to save jobs in out Gulf Coast fishing and oil industries and we worked to hold BP accountable. Gene has served as south Mississippi’s voice for years; he deserves a promotion.”

Marion Berry
Image Link

“’ ‘Folks, I’ve worked with Gene Taylor in Congress for fourteen years. Let me tell you, Gene is the man! In Congress, Gene and I worked to bring more agriculture and health funding to areas of the south like Arkansas and Mississippi. Gene has been standing up for Mississippi for more than 20 years. The man deserves a second chance!”

Mike Beebe
Image Link

“As a governor of a southern state, I know what it takes to lead.  Gene Taylor is an excellent choice for Mississippi. Neither of Gene’s opponents have his impressive legislative record or his strong bipartisan appeal.”

Joe Manchin
Image Link

“I am confident that Gene will do here in Mississippi what my administration did in West Virginia; we worked across the aisle and legislated in a fiscally conservative way to create record prosperity and a budget surplus.”
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2010, 06:21:07 pm »



Current Mississippi Polls:

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2010, 09:41:08 am »

LATE JULY 2011


Politico Reports:

"There have been solid reports from within Democratic ranks that not only Olympia Snowe, but Susan Collins as well will switch parties. Ever since Lieberman left the Democratic ranks, Dems have been aggressively luring Olympia Snowe to join their caucus. Collins, who will be in a similar electoral situation as Snowe in 2014, is heavily considering changing parties at this early junction to avoid accusations that she is  political chameleon."
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2010, 11:40:29 am »

25 JULY 2011

A few days after the rampant rumors of both Maine senators changing parties, Maine pollster Critical Insights ran a series of hypothetical polls.

Critical Insights- July 22-24, 2011

Preview:

"Both Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins trail badly in early GOP primary polling. Snowe, who is up in 2012 trails by 24 points over a generic conservative challenger; Collins does only slightly better, though she still stands at a 21-point deficit. Fortunately, both senators remain on positive ground with moderates and Democrats. Based on these numbers and the strength of the Maine Tea Party, the clearest path for reelection for both senators would be to abandon the GOP."

Republican Primary Polls

In a 2012 Republican primary would you vote to re-nominate Olympia Snowe over a more conservative challenger?

Yes-35%
No-59%


In a 2014 Republican primary would you vote to re-nominate Susan Collins over a more conservative challenger?

Yes-37%
No-58%


General Election Polls:

Would you be open to supporting Olympia Snowe if she ran for reelection as a Democrat in 2012?

Yes-58%
No-33%

Would you be open to supporting Susan Collins if she ran for reelection as a Democrat in 2014?

Yes-57%
No-35%


Democratic Primary Polls

In a Democratic primary, would you rather moderate Olypmia Snowe over a more liberal challenger?

Yes-49%
No-39%

In a Democratic primary, would you rather moderate Susan Collins over a more liberal challenger?

Yes-47%
No-40%




Similarly in neighboring CT, Quinnipiac University conducted hypothetical polls testing Lieberman's electoral strength.

Quinnipiac University Polling Center- July 22-23, 2011


Preview:

Despite  Joe Lieberman's party switch, he still remains in weak shape heading into 2012. His favorably among Democrats is, expectedly, at a record low. Lieberman is still widely disliked by independents and captures only a plurality of support from his new party, the GOP; he also is set to narrowly lose a GOP primary. Its pretty safe to say that the odds are heavily against Lieberman making a 5th trip to DC as CT's Senator, as he trails badly in general election polls.

Republican Primary Poll

Would you support Republican Senator Joe Lieberman in a GOP primary or a challenger?

Lieberman-40%
Challenger(s)-50%


General Election Polls

In the general Senate election in 2012, would you vote for Republican Joe Lieberman, Democrat Chris Murphy, or are you unsure?

Lieberman(R)*-32%
Murphy(D)-52%
Other/unsure-16%

In the general Senate election in 2012, would you vote for Republican Joe Lieberman, Democrat Jim Himes, or are you unsure?

Lieberman(R)*-31%
Himes(D)-55%
Other/unsure-14%

Lieberman Favorables:

Democrats- 19/72
Independents- 28/60
Republicans- 47/37


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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2010, 01:36:02 pm »
« Edited: November 12, 2010, 01:46:24 pm by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

27 JULY 2011

With under a week to go until the MS governor's primaries, Gene Taylor gets 2 major boosts.

-Retired NFL star and south Mississippi native Brett Favre will be making frequent campaign stops for Taylor. Favre, a celebrity in his home state, remains very popular in his native Gulf Coast region. In the past, Favre has made donations to Taylor (this is actually true) and now he has time to campaign. Favre will help Taylor consolidate his south Mississippi base and help voter turnout in the Democratic 2nd District by energizing black voters.

Image Link


-The NRA, which has a history of endorsing Taylor and Mississippi Dixiecrats, endorses Taylor again. This will help Taylor in central and northern MS, areas where he is performing the weakest.

Image Link
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2010, 02:21:06 pm »

1 AUGUST 2011

Our first cumulative look at the 2012 Senate races:

This assuming that Snowe and Collins do change parties.

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2010, 04:12:01 pm »

Tester and Nelson are still popular.

Tester's last approval rating was 54%. Tester lied low during the healthcare debate, thats why he's still on good ground. Baucus was in the center of the debate and his approvals plummeted.

Bill Nelson has as slightly positive approval as 37/35. PPP has him comfortably ahead of Connie Mack and George LeMieux. I can justify Lean D for FL.

Conrad is a total unknown. However, he almost got 70% in 2006, so I'm giving him the benfit of the doubt.
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2010, 12:54:25 pm »

I knew you'd like the Brett Favre part, albaleman!!
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2010, 03:22:56 pm »

1 AUGUST 2011

With 1 day until the GOP primary in Mississippi, its anyone's guess:

Image Link



Taylor still holds small leads over both Republicans.

Image Link

Image Link


The effects of the GOP primary are most obvious in the favorable numbers of the candidates; Taylor remains positively viewed , but either Republican will enter the general election on negative ground. Taylor stands at 53/38...both of the Republican's favorables are almost a mirror image of Taylor's.

Favorables:

Taylor- 53/38
Bryant-39/51
Reeves-37/52
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2010, 11:32:50 am »

2 AUGUST 2011

Primary night in Mississippi. With 98% of precincts reporting Reeves is clinging onto a slim lead. The AP says that they will not be able to call the race until Wednesday morning.

Republican  Primary

Image Link



Democratic Primary

Taylor-100% [uncontested]
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #19 on: November 15, 2010, 12:34:17 am »

3 AUGUST 2011

With 100% of the GOP primary votes in, Reeves has expanded his lead to 50.34% to Bryant’s 49.66%. On Wednesday morning, Bryant concedes:

Image Link

“...It is clear that the Tea Party Movement has made significant inroads here in the Magnolia State. While my team knew we were in for a rough battle, sadly, we did not come out on top, as we had planned. I would hope that our next governor practices the fiscally conservative and principled type of governance that I have fought for. I want to extend my thanks to my campaign workers, everyone who chipped in to my campaign and my family. Regardless of the final outcome of this race, I have enjoyed my time as your Lieutenant Governor and I and proud of the 15-year record I have of serving the people of Mississippi….”



The most important part of Bryant's concession speech: He doesn't endorse Reeves!!


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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #20 on: November 15, 2010, 01:20:42 am »
« Edited: November 15, 2010, 02:42:59 am by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

4 AUGUST 2011

After its Mississippi Primary victory, the Tea Party Express releases its 2012 Senate hit list...


Image Link


***WANTED***

****TRAITOROUS****



OLYMPIA SNOWE-MAINE
Image Link


ORRIN HATCH-UTAH
Image Link


KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON-TEXAS
Image Link


DICK LUGAR-INDIANA
Image Link


BOB CORKER-TENNESSEE
Image Link

SCOTT BROWN-MASSACHUSETTS
Image Link


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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2010, 05:28:39 pm »
« Edited: November 16, 2010, 02:54:24 am by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

15 AUGUST 2011

Two weeks after the Mississippi primary, here is where cumulative polling stands:

Kentucky

BESHEAR[D]*- 52%
WILLIAMS[R]-39%
Image Link


Louisiana

JINDAL[R]*-60%
CAZAYOUX[D]-35%
Others-2%

Image Link


Mississippi

TAYLOR[D]-47%
REEVES[R]^-42%

Image Link

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #22 on: November 15, 2010, 08:48:40 pm »

19 AUGUST 2011


The second major development of the 2012 Senate elections occurs when Sen. Bill Nelson announces his retirement.


Image Link

"While I have spent the last years serving Floridians in the Senate, I feel that it is my time to bow out. Looking back, I am satisfied with my record and I know that my work has benefited my constituents. I will spend my last year or so in the Senate wrapping up unfinished projects and bringing closure to my tenure in the Senate."


Almost immediately, failed FL Senate candidate Kendrick B. Meek announces his candidacy.

Image Link

"With Senator Nelson's departure Democrats have lost a true advocate, however, now Florida has the opportunity to elect a new Senator. In 2010, we came close but we fell just short of defeating Senator Rubio. We had the support then and we continue to have the support from independents, liberals and conservatives that we need to win in 2012. I'm confident that this 6'2" former state trooper will be the next United States Senator from Florida!"
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #23 on: November 17, 2010, 12:26:06 am »
« Edited: November 17, 2010, 09:39:56 am by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

15 SEPTEMBER 2011

POLLING UPDATES

Obama's performance against a Generic Republican continues to slide:

Image Link

Obama Approval:

PPP:
Approve-45%
Disapprove-48%


Rasmussen (R)Sad
Strongly Approve-26%
Strongly Disapprove-45%

Total Approve-43%
Total Disapprove-57%

Quinnipiac:
Approve:44%
Disapprove:49%



Luckily for Dems, despite his relatively poor performance in the Electoral College and his slightly underwater approvals, Obama leads every probable GOP contender in PPP's cumulative polls. Obama does significantly better when pitted against the actual Republican candidates than a Generic Republican. The electoral college map is turning into nothing more than a visual of Obama's approval rating rather than a representation of an actual 2012 matchup.

Obama:48%
Romney:46%

Obama:47%
Huckabee:45%

Obama:49%
Palin:39%

Obama: 48%
Gingrich: 40%


Republican candidate Favorables (PPP)

Palin: 35/54
Romney: 48/42
Gingrich: 38/52
Huckabee: 44/42

Based on her intellectual capacity, do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to be president?

Yes-37%
No-56%

General Republican Primary Polling:

Palin:22%
Romney:22%
Huckabee:20%
Gingrich:16%

Favorables Among Republican voters:

Palin:76/21
Romney: 60/36
Huckabee: 67/29
Gingrich: 64/31



Generic Congressional Ballot

Gallup
R-47%
D-43%


PPP
R-46%
D-42%


Rasmussen (R)
R-50%
D-40%


Quinnipiac
R-46%
D-44%




Polling in 8 competitive Senate races:

Image Link
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #24 on: November 17, 2010, 02:16:25 pm »
« Edited: November 18, 2010, 02:50:04 am by Attorney-General MilesC56 »

21 SEPTEMBER 2011

Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana signs into law an Arizona-style immigration law. His already great poll numbers rise, largely due to an energized conservative base in Louisiana.

Image Link


"...As for immigration, I will follow the lead of Governor Jan Brewer in Arizona. She has taken action where the Obama Administration has not and for that, I applaud her. We have an illegal immigration problem right here in the the Pelican state. Under my leadership, I hope Louisiana will join Arizona as leader in the fight against illegal immigration and encourage legal immigration to the United States. As your governor, I could not stand by and let this issue hurt our communities, our local businesses and our security any longer. Look, my parents can here as immigrants from India looking for a better life for themselves, me and my family, so can relate firsthand to experiences of immigrants. We can all respect that, but my parents came here legally and lawfully. I see no reason not to hold all our immigrants to that same standard. "


Magellan Strategies Poll- 23 September 2011

Do you approve of the new immigration law signed by Governor Jindal?

Yes-65%
No-30%

Do you approve of the job Bobby Jindal is doing as Governor?

Yes-63%
No-35%

If the 2011 Gubernatorial election were today, who would you vote for?

Jindal(R)*-64%
Cazayoux(D)-30%
Other/Unsure-6%

Do you approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

Yes-32%
No-66%
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