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  US House Redistricting: North Carolina
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: North Carolina  (Read 88003 times)
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« on: November 05, 2010, 06:20:36 am »

Here's your Republican gerrymander of North Carolina.









CD-1: Incumbent:G.K. Butterfield (D). This district barely breaks 50% black. For those of you who want to draw your own map, I highly recommend drawing minority districts first, otherwise you can easily paint yourself into a corner. 63.36% Obama.
CD-2: Incumbent: Renee Ellmers (R). This plan shores up Ellmers' district by removing Democratic areas of Cumberland and Wake counties and including more Republican areas. 57.56% McCain.
CD-3: Incumbent: Walter Jones (R). This plan moves Jones out of this district, since he lives in a precinct with a significant Black minority that was needed for Butterfield's district. 59.69% McCain.
CD-4: Incumbent: David Price (D). This plan packs as many Democrats as possible into Price's district, to shore up Ellmers and weaken Miller. 69.07% Obama.
CD-5: Incumbent: Virginia Foxx (R). Republicans in this district were greatly diluted to suit Republican needs elsewhere. Asheville was included to weaken Shuler, and Democratic parts of Winston-Salem were included to keep them out of the 6th, which took in Democratic parts of Greensboro to weaken Miller. 54.26% McCain.
CD-6: Incumbent: Howard Coble (R). As stated above, this district takes in Democratic parts of Greensboro in order to weaken Miller. 56.42% McCain.
CD-7: Incumbent: Mike McIntyre (D). This plan packs as many Democrats as possible into McIntyre's district, to shore up Ellmers and weaken Kissell. Only 50.40% White. 56.66% Obama.
CD-8: Incumbent: Larry Kissell (D). Kissell is severely weakened by the removal of Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties and Democratic parts of Fayetteville. These areas were replaced by Republican territory in Fayetteville and in Rowan, Moore, Lee, Chatham, and Alamance counties. 56.48% McCain.
CD-9: Incumbent: Sue Myrick (R). Not much changed here. 52.61% McCain. It sounds marginal, but I'm fairly certain Obama overperformed here.
CD-10: Incumbent: Patrick McHenry (R). The border changes here were mostly intended to weaken Shuler. 61.97% McCain.
CD-11: Incumbent: Heath Shuler (D). This plan screws Shuler by removing Asheville and replacing it with Republican territory in Cleveland and Gaston counties. 57.56% McCain.
CD-12: Incumbent: Mel Watt (D). Not much changed here. 50.53% Black, 76.85% Obama.
CD-13: Incumbent: Brad Miller (D). While I didn't manage to draw a McCain district for Miller, I did manage to weaken him somewhat by removing Democratic parts of Greensboro and Burlington and replacing them with Republican areas to the east. 52.03% Obama.
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2010, 12:13:07 pm »

10-3 R gerrymander of North Carolina

NC-01: 51% black, 73% Obama
NC-02: 53% McCain
NC-03: 55% McCain
NC-04: 60% Obama
NC-05: 61% McCain, contains both Shuler and Foxx's homes (Shuler is in Haywood while Foxx is in Avery; Foxx does not live in the current 5th, but I moved her into her district.)
NC-06: 55% McCain
NC-07: 55% McCain
NC-08: 53% McCain
NC-09: 54% McCain
NC-10: 56% McCain, open seat, McHenry was in this district previously
NC-11: 53% McCain, McHenry lives in this district while Shuler does not
NC-12: 51% black, 78% Obama
NC-13: 52% McCain



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muon2
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2010, 08:15:04 pm »


I think it follows the current tradition of NC-6.



I would also be concerned about going for 10 of 13 seats. Blue Dogs remain viable in NC, so aiming for 8 or 9 seats might be a safer course for the NC GOP.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2010, 04:03:27 pm »
« Edited: November 06, 2010, 05:28:57 pm by muon2 »

Another NC 10-3 for the GOP, maybe a bit less stringy than the ones above:

I can't post links yet but here it is:


CD1 (dark blue): Butterfield's district, now 51% black and 73-26 Obama.  Obviously in any GOP-favorable map the black sections of Raleigh/Durham have to get added to this district.  
CD2 (tan): Ellmers's district, was 52-47 Obama, now 54-45 McCain.  Loses Fayetteville and the western parts of her current district, as well as part of Raleigh, for the more purplish parts of Cary and Raleigh suburbs and more eastern counties.  
CD3 (dark purple): Jones's district, still 55-44 McCain... both CD2 and CD3 look a lot less jagged than they used to be.  
CD4 (dark green): Price's district, but Miller lives there too, I guess.  In any case this is a Dem-packed Triangle district: 61-38 Obama.  
CD5 (hot pink): Foxx's district.  Added most of Asheville but still 58-41 for McCain.  
CD6 (red): Coble's district shifted north to take in much of Miller's.  55-44 McCain.  Still a little strange-looking, unfortunately.  
CD7 (lime green): McIntyre's district.  He might still win, but it's gone from 52-47 McCain to 55-45 (lost parts of Fayetteville and Robeson county).  
CD8 (dark teal): Most of Kissell's district, but he doesn't live here any more.  Used to be 52-47 Obama, is now 54-45 McCain.  
CD9 (grey): From the GOP point of view, this is my one problem: McHenry and Myrick both live here, I think (depends on where in Charlotte Myrick's house is).  Maybe McHenry can move into the new 10th, or a bit west to challenge Shuler in the 11th, or Myrick can move into Union County and take the 8th?  Or one could just mess with the lines between 8/9 to put Myrick in 8 without anyone moving... in any case it's 55-44 McCain.
CD10 (lavender): No current representative lives here, I believe.  (It takes in parts of McHenry's old 10th and Foxx's old 5th, plus some blue-purple sections of Charlotte.) Goes for McCain 55-44.  
CD11 (light blue): Shuler's district.  Formerly 52-47 McCain, it's now 55-43 McCain.  
CD12 (yellow): Watt's district, much the same as before.  51% black and 78% for Obama.  Probably with finer precinct control one can get those figures higher.  
CD13 (light teal): Kissell lives here, but most of the territory is new to him (formerly Coble's).  It's 53-46 McCain whereas Kissell's former district was 52-47 Obama.  


Edited by the moderator to make the map visible.
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2010, 04:11:59 pm »
« Edited: November 06, 2010, 04:13:30 pm by Verily »

McHenry lives way out in the northwestern corner of Gaston County, so it'd be easy to draw him into NC-11 while keeping the map mostly intact.

Much more reasonable solution to the Research Triangle problem than the map I drew. I was too obsessed with getting the GOP suburbs in northern Wake County into a Republican district.

Anyway, I have a neutral, non-partisan Florida map to try to conform to the new rules there, will post when I have a chance. It creates a 13R-10D-3Tossup split, with three black seats and three Cuban seats, plus a coalition district around Kissimmee.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2010, 04:50:46 pm »
« Edited: November 09, 2010, 11:56:41 pm by muon2 »

McHenry lives way out in the northwestern corner of Gaston County, so it'd be easy to draw him into NC-11 while keeping the map mostly intact.

Good point.  I did that, shifting all of Cleveland County and the corner of Gaston into the 11th, taking more of Asheville into the 5th and moving half of Catawba into the 9th.  Additional benefit: 11th CD is now 58-41 McCain.  
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2010, 06:00:24 pm »

That little yellow snake creating some black district in the NC map above,  would  generate the third in a series of SCOTUS decisions, about the legality of black snakes in NC, with the outcome uncertain, since the first two decisions were not particularly coherent.
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muon2
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2010, 06:26:57 pm »

That little yellow snake creating some black district in the NC map above,  would  generate the third in a series of SCOTUS decisions, about the legality of black snakes in NC, with the outcome uncertain, since the first two decisions were not particularly coherent.

One way to address Watt's district is to keep it as close to the current one as possible. That district is the result of the last round of cases and starts with a presumption of legality. The VRA cases imply that race must be considered, but cannot be the sole factor for a district. That leads one to balance race against other redistricting principles.

Keeping a district close to existing borders serves both as incumbent protection and preserving the core of an existing district, which have been recognized as valid principles of redistricting. If the new district also reaches over 50% black VAP it wouldn't be due to race as the sole factor, but by being mindful of the possibility of an area that could be over 50% black as a threshold from Bartlett. I would expect that only minor tweaks to Watt's district is the most likely course of action.
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2010, 06:37:37 pm »

Ya, hoist SCOTUS on its own petard as it were. Smiley
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muon2
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« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2010, 08:48:24 pm »

Here's a version of NC to protect GOP incumbents and keep them in their districts,
but put some of the Dems in some stress. This map targets 3 Dems, but keeps 4 safe. I think this creates considerably less risk than a 10 to 3 plan that tries to target 4 Dems.

The key idea is in this map is to merge the D areas of NC 7 and 8 and add to it the heavily D areas in Raleigh NC 2. The new CD 2 drops down to the SE areas that are heavily GOP, and yes it's not pretty Tongue. A tidier version would swap some area between CD 2 and 7, but this went for the maximum partisan split. The remainder of old NC 2 is added to the new CD 13 which completely flips its partisan leanings.



CD 1: 74% Obama, 54% black
CD 2: 57% McCain (a big shift in area for Ellmers, but flips from 51% Obama)
CD 3: 59% McCain
CD 4: 64% Obama
CD 5: 58% McCain
CD 6: 57% McCain
CD 7: 67% Obama, 40% plurality black (McIntyre is safe here)
CD 8: 57% McCain (was 52% Obama, Kissell lives in CD 6 here)
CD 9: 56% McCain
CD 10: 57% McCain
CD 11: 57% McCain (up from 52% McCain)
CD 12: 79% Obama, 52% black
CD 13: 56% McCain (the biggest shift here since it was 59% Obama)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2010, 09:09:22 pm »

Governor Perdue is completely irrelevant for NC redistricting, right?
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muon2
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« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2010, 11:52:24 pm »

Governor Perdue is completely irrelevant for NC redistricting, right?

There is no veto power for redistricting bills. The NC legislature's website says:

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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2010, 05:43:15 pm »

10-3 Republican map of North Carolina:





Going east to west:

Blue - 67-33 Obama (just over 50% black)
Green - 54-46 McCain
Purple - 55-44 McCain
Red - 53-46 McCain
Yellow - 69-30 Obama
Dark Teal - 53-46 McCain
Light Teal - 54-46 McCain
Purple - 56-43 McCain
Grey - 75-24 Obama (48% black)
Magenta - 55-44 McCain
Green - 54-45 McCain
Orange - 56-42 McCain
Light Purple - 59-40 McCain
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« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2010, 07:16:30 am »

That little yellow snake creating some black district in the NC map above,  would  generate the third in a series of SCOTUS decisions, about the legality of black snakes in NC, with the outcome uncertain, since the first two decisions were not particularly coherent.
Is this district what the song "Crawling King Snake" is all about?
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Torie
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« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2010, 08:55:38 pm »

With no constraints on what you can draw except the VRA, in states like NC, you can do just about anything can't you?  It is almost like looking at the state  vote totals, figuring out what max Obama district percentages would be for the number of CD's you cede to them, and then deduct those vote totals, and divide the McCain margin by the number of remaining CD's in a relatively even way, and you calculate his percentage, see if you think it high enough, given trends, and whatever peculiarities might motivate you, and when satisfied, just draw the districts to hand out the McCain margin in a relatively even manner.

Michigan isn't like that. Smiley
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #15 on: November 23, 2010, 02:08:15 am »

10-3 Republican map of North Carolina:





Going east to west:

Blue - 67-33 Obama (just over 50% black)
Green - 54-46 McCain
Purple - 55-44 McCain
Red - 53-46 McCain
Yellow - 69-30 Obama
Dark Teal - 53-46 McCain
Light Teal - 54-46 McCain
Purple - 56-43 McCain
Grey - 75-24 Obama (48% black)
Magenta - 55-44 McCain
Green - 54-45 McCain
Orange - 56-42 McCain
Light Purple - 59-40 McCain


A lot of 54%-ish McCain districts that the right Democrat could win in the right year.  McIntyre and Shuler would probably be able to hold the districts that they are in.  Even Kissell might be able to hold onto his seat. 
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Cigarettes & Saints
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« Reply #16 on: November 23, 2010, 02:40:01 am »

And 53% probably isn't enough to shore up Renee Elmers, who is basically a less attractive Christine O'Donnell. And maybe even less articulate as well (if that is somehow possible.)
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dpmapper
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« Reply #17 on: November 23, 2010, 07:44:49 am »

A lot of 54%-ish McCain districts that the right Democrat could win in the right year.  McIntyre and Shuler would probably be able to hold the districts that they are in.  Even Kissell might be able to hold onto his seat. 

You know, you say this a lot.  A 54% McCain district is roughly a R+7 PVI - do you know how many districts that are D+7 or more that the GOP won in the wave this year?  ZERO.  Granted, the Dems have had more success holding R+7 districts than vice versa, but there weren't all that many of them and most of them relied on entrenched incumbents (Spratt, Skelton, Edwards, Gordon, Tanner, Boucher...) and probably won't be swinging back any time soon.  So yeah, it's not impossible, but a district like that should be reasonably secure, and even in a strong Dem wave should be no worse than a 50-50 barring scandal.  If you make districts much more GOP you end up with a *Democratic* gerrymander. 
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #18 on: November 23, 2010, 08:14:03 am »

I can buy McIntyre holding onto his district, but Shuler's district cuts out Asheville, which he needs to survive, and Kissell's district is made about 7 points more Republican, and adds a lot of new territory in suburban Charlotte.
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Cigarettes & Saints
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« Reply #19 on: November 23, 2010, 10:59:26 am »

McIntyre's current seat is already 52% McCain, so making it just a few points more Republican won't eliminate him. If I were a Republican drawing the map I'd just put more Democratic territory in his seat to shore him up.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #20 on: November 23, 2010, 05:40:31 pm »

Shuler narrowly won the non-Buncombe county portions of his district this year, so it's not a guaranteed pickup even taking out Asheville.
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muon2
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« Reply #21 on: November 24, 2010, 07:45:31 am »

With no constraints on what you can draw except the VRA, in states like NC, you can do just about anything can't you?  It is almost like looking at the state  vote totals, figuring out what max Obama district percentages would be for the number of CD's you cede to them, and then deduct those vote totals, and divide the McCain margin by the number of remaining CD's in a relatively even way, and you calculate his percentage, see if you think it high enough, given trends, and whatever peculiarities might motivate you, and when satisfied, just draw the districts to hand out the McCain margin in a relatively even manner.

Michigan isn't like that. Smiley

A lot of 54%-ish McCain districts that the right Democrat could win in the right year.  McIntyre and Shuler would probably be able to hold the districts that they are in.  Even Kissell might be able to hold onto his seat. 

You know, you say this a lot.  A 54% McCain district is roughly a R+7 PVI - do you know how many districts that are D+7 or more that the GOP won in the wave this year?  ZERO.  Granted, the Dems have had more success holding R+7 districts than vice versa, but there weren't all that many of them and most of them relied on entrenched incumbents (Spratt, Skelton, Edwards, Gordon, Tanner, Boucher...) and probably won't be swinging back any time soon.  So yeah, it's not impossible, but a district like that should be reasonably secure, and even in a strong Dem wave should be no worse than a 50-50 barring scandal.  If you make districts much more GOP you end up with a *Democratic* gerrymander. 

I wouldn't call a 9 R - 4 D a Dem gerrymander. The incoming delegation is 6 R - 7 D, so a pickup of 2 or 3 looks pretty good to the GOP. Why would the GOP risk picking up only 1 by leaving too many swing districts on the map with entrenched D incumbents? At 9 - 4 the GOP can engineer at least 56% McCain in all the R districts and leave little to chance.
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Torie
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« Reply #22 on: November 24, 2010, 02:00:19 pm »
« Edited: November 24, 2010, 03:26:16 pm by Torie »

Well, I can't draw 56% McCain districts in Michigan. But you should see the kick ass Michigan map I spent two days drawing. Dave's district drawing utility is very addictive. After about 3 days of working with it, I have finally got the knack of how to move population around from one district to another, shifting folks around like dominoes. Say you have two many folks in the CD on Lake Michigan, and two few in a in the Flint district. Shifting people without breaking county lines or township or city lines, can be very tricky. One needs to be well rested sometimes to handle it. Smiley

Anyway, in the Michigan map, all the Pubbies are now uber safe, and the Levin-Peters district is marginal. I am not sure yet whether Bush or Kerry carried it. These two  gentlemen (one Jewish and one Episcopalian) will have fun running in a CD with well to do WASP's in Broomfield Hills, cranky blue collar Catholic Dems in Warren, and lower middle class ones in Sterling Heights,  mixed marginal Dem territory in St. Clair Shores, Roseville and Eastpointe, and upper middle class to rich Catholics in the Gross Pointes. Yes, I unlocked the Pubbies in the Pointes by cutting down the number of CD's in Oakland to 3. I figure that if Oakland has lost a CD, well Wayne should gain one!  Tongue
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dpmapper
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« Reply #23 on: November 24, 2010, 02:40:05 pm »
« Edited: November 24, 2010, 03:07:44 pm by dpmapper »


I wouldn't call a 9 R - 4 D a Dem gerrymander. The incoming delegation is 6 R - 7 D, so a pickup of 2 or 3 looks pretty good to the GOP. Why would the GOP risk picking up only 1 by leaving too many swing districts on the map with entrenched D incumbents? At 9 - 4 the GOP can engineer at least 56% McCain in all the R districts and leave little to chance.

I was being slightly hyperbolic, but in my book "much more Republican" didn't mean moving from 54% McCain to 56%.  

To me, this is about probabilities: a 54% district gives the GOP at least an 80-85% chance of winning it in most years, I would guess.  Moving that to 56% maybe bumps that to 90-95%.  Is adding 10% insurance in 3-4 districts worth dropping GOP chances in one district from 60% to 5%?  That's the choice.  It's not as if going from 54% to 56% moves you from a tossup to completely safe.  

Now, one could argue that in particular cases it might be worth doing this.  For instance, McIntyre is an 8-term Democrat who is pretty darn strong and votes conservatively (making the fivethirtyeight list of least valuable Dems), so maybe it's worth leaving him alone.  My next post will contain a map that does just that.  
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dpmapper
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« Reply #24 on: November 24, 2010, 03:06:33 pm »
« Edited: November 24, 2010, 11:38:18 pm by muon2 »



From SE to NW:

Bright Green (McIntyre):
The theory (as stated in the previous post) is that McIntyre is actually a pretty good Dem to leave in office.  I didn't want to pack it with Dems, however, for two reasons: 1) it maintains his incentive to keep voting conservatively; 2) if the Dems primary him out from the left (which might happen if you make his district much more liberal) or McIntyre leaves office for any other reason, then the GOP still has a better than 50/50 shot at winning the seat.  All the surrounding seats are safe enough for the GOP that there's not much need for the McCain percentage to budge from 52%.  

Purple (Jones): 56-43 McCain.
Light Blue (Ellmers): 55-44 McCain.  (The district she just won was 52-47 Obama.)
Dark Blue (Butterfield): 53% black, 72% Obama.  
Tan: 56-44 McCain.  Not sure if he lives here, but Miller probably would run here... badly: Miller's previous was 59-40 Obama.  
Green (Price): 66-33 Obama.  

Sea Green/Dark Teal (Kissell): 55-44 McCain, compared with 52-47 Obama with the previous lines.  Kissell is only in his 2nd term now, and lucked out with a weak opponent this year (at least, that's my understanding).  I've got to believe this is sufficient to knock him out.  

Red (Coble): 56-43 McCain.
Yellow (Watt): 51% black, 78% Obama.
Lavender (open): 56-43 McCain.
Grey (Myrick): 55-44 McCain.
Pink (Foxx): 55-44 McCain.
Bluish periwinkle whatever-you-call-that-color (Shuler, McHenry): 58-41 McCain, compared with 52-47 in Shuler's old district.  Most of Shuler's best counties save his home county (Madison, Yancey, and most of Buncombe, including all of Asheville) are now in Foxx's district, replaced by Rutherford, Burke, Cleveland from McHenry's district.  If McHenry isn't brave enough to take on the challenge, well, he can move to the lavender district.  Smiley
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