US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[JacobNC]

Since the first district has fallen below 50% black since the last census, does that mean we don't have to include a new 50% black district in redistricting?

[DrScholl]

The district has to stay at least plurality black I would imagine. Besides that, it's convenient vote sink for various Democratic votes, so that's another reason it won't be tinkered with.

[Dgov]

The district has to stay at least plurality black I would imagine. Besides that, it's convenient vote sink for various Democratic votes, so that's another reason it won't be tinkered with.

Actually, its the closest black-majority (or previously black-majority) district in the Country.  The dems did a good job in 2001 of creating this district.

Though in all honesty, getting it up past 50% won't be hard.  Durham and Raleigh both have plenty of Black voters the GOP would love to shove in that district, as it will shore up NC-2, and allow NC-4 to take more of the Liberal white parts of Raleigh from NC-13.

[krazen1211]

The district has to stay at least plurality black I would imagine. Besides that, it's convenient vote sink for various Democratic votes, so that's another reason it won't be tinkered with.

Actually, its the closest black-majority (or previously black-majority) district in the Country.  The dems did a good job in 2001 of creating this district.

Though in all honesty, getting it up past 50% won't be hard.  Durham and Raleigh both have plenty of Black voters the GOP would love to shove in that district, as it will shore up NC-2, and allow NC-4 to take more of the Liberal white parts of Raleigh from NC-13.

The 1st district as it exists should be mostly dissolved. A few counties can remain, but you don't need all those random tendrils all across eastern NC.

[JacobNC]

I don't see any way for the NC GOP to pick up more than 2 seats in 2012.  Larry Kissell and Brad Miller will be fairly easy to take out - and Ellmers' seat can be shored up, but beyond that... it will be difficult for Republicans to win any more seats.

I think Heath Shuler will survive even if Asheville is removed from his district.  The democrats in Asheville really don't like him anyway.  He'll win as long as there's not another wave election like 2010.  WNC is kind of a funny area politically - unlike some other ancestrally democratic areas in the south, the counties that straddle the Tennessee border (Jackson, Swain, Madison & Yancey in particular) are around 95% white and yet they barely went for McCain.  Most people probably perceive this area as being kinda back-woodsy and hillbilly-ish, but the white people are much more liberal here than they are around most of the rest of NC.

Larry Kissell is probably a goner, unfortunately.  He seemed like a sincere politician (he left his job as a high school teacher and ran a very grassroots campaign for congress), but his vote against health care angered the Charlotte and Fayetteville democrats who put him into office and he's not popular among Republicans either.  He did support DADT repeal and some other Democratic initiatives - but then again, he also supported Heath Shuler for speaker. :/

Mike McIntyre will survive wherever Lumberton is.  He is wildly popular among Native Americans and rural white democrats.  I think he's also pretty popular among African Americans - even though he voted against most of the Obama agenda he holds these MLK day parades every year and got Rep. John Lewis to come to Wilmington to speak about the civil rights movement.  He's a likable politician, at least.

Miller is definitely a goner.  He hasn't been getting much bipartisan support over the past few elections.  He actually drew the 13th district for himself to run in in 2001 when he was a state legislator... karma, I guess.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe, but you can ensure that both Shuler and McIntyre will 1) never be safe and 2) will vote Republican as often as possible.


Kissell and Miller should be the ones targetted for elimination.

[Frodo]

Maybe, but you can ensure that both Shuler and McIntyre will 1) never be safe and 2) will vote Republican as often as possible.

And 3) Persuade them in so many words that they will find a brighter political future as newly minted Republicans.  

Which brings me to this question -what is the likelihood that either would switch parties, especially after redistricting?  

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe, but you can ensure that both Shuler and McIntyre will 1) never be safe and 2) will vote Republican as often as possible.

And 3) Persuade them in so many words that they will find a brighter political future as newly minted Republicans.  

Which brings me to this question -what is the likelihood that either would switch parties, especially after redistricting?  

After Griffith?

[Frodo]

Maybe, but you can ensure that both Shuler and McIntyre will 1) never be safe and 2) will vote Republican as often as possible.

And 3) Persuade them in so many words that they will find a brighter political future as newly minted Republicans.  

Which brings me to this question -what is the likelihood that either would switch parties, especially after redistricting?  

After Griffith?

Apparently numerous Democratic state legislators throughout the South (esp. in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia) weren't deterred by his example when they joined the GOP. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe, but you can ensure that both Shuler and McIntyre will 1) never be safe and 2) will vote Republican as often as possible.

And 3) Persuade them in so many words that they will find a brighter political future as newly minted Republicans.  

Which brings me to this question -what is the likelihood that either would switch parties, especially after redistricting?  

After Griffith?

Apparently numerous Democratic state legislators throughout the South (esp. in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia) weren't deterred by his example when they joined the GOP. 

Shuler might survive, McIntyre probably wouldn't. Not with a movement guy like Pantano just waiting to run again.

[Dgov]

Maybe, but you can ensure that both Shuler and McIntyre will 1) never be safe and 2) will vote Republican as often as possible.

And 3) Persuade them in so many words that they will find a brighter political future as newly minted Republicans.  

Which brings me to this question -what is the likelihood that either would switch parties, especially after redistricting?  

After Griffith?

Apparently numerous Democratic state legislators throughout the South (esp. in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia) weren't deterred by his example when they joined the GOP. 

Those reps were just Republicans who were only technically Ds because the Democrats controlled the chambers they were in and they wanted to be in the majority.  Republicans taking control of the State houses there basically removed any reason for those people to stay Democrats.

Shuler and McIntyre on the other hand, are much closer to the NC Democratic party.  I doubt they'd just switch, particularly if they're confident they can win anyway.

[JacobNC]

Which brings me to this question -what is the likelihood that either would switch parties, especially after redistricting? 

Little likelihood; Registered democrats outnumber Republicans in North Carolina, by pretty good margins in Shuler and McIntyre's districts, I think.  It's kind of silly, really, Heath Shuler has said he is very proud to be a democrat, even though he agrees with Republicans on just about everything.  There's a lot of people like that in Western NC.

The NC GOP might have to make McIntyre's district safer for him, actually, to dilute the Democratic areas of Kissell's district (Anson, Scotland, Hoke & Cumberland Counties).  He probably would survive a primary challenge, even with a more liberal district, with the massive support he gets from Native Americans and rural voters.

[dpmapper]

I don't think the GOP will mind keeping McIntyre.  The most important vote that might be upcoming will be the one to repeal Obamacare (assuming Obama loses in 2012, which from a conservative policy point of view, you may as well assume, since if he doesn't, everything [and I mean everything] is pretty much shot), and McIntyre's with them on that.  Shuler and Kissell aren't. 

[nclib]

Also, Shuler and McIntyre aren't nearly as conservative as the legislators in the Deep South who switched parties (North Carolina is not politically similar to that, thank God). The GOP may still try keeping them from having a safe district or moving left. Also, keep in mind that Shuler grew up in NC-11 and was a high school football star there.

[BigSkyBob]

I don't think the GOP will mind keeping McIntyre.  The most important vote that might be upcoming will be the one to repeal Obamacare (assuming Obama loses in 2012, which from a conservative policy point of view, you may as well assume, since if he doesn't, everything [and I mean everything] is pretty much shot), and McIntyre's with them on that.  Shuler and Kissell aren't. 

The decision to target, or protect McIntyre will be simply a question of whether, or not, the Republicans find it in their advantage to target both Kissel and McIntyre, or create a single dumping district for McIntryre. The GOP leadership isn't as stupid as you believe that they are.

I have read a tremendous amount of partisan denial about what is going to happen in North Carolina. Here are the facts: 9-4-Shuler isn't even a challenge. 10-3-Shuler is a technical exercise And, 11-2-Shuler might just be possible. The reason is simple enough:  the GOP consistently carries the White vote in North Carolina by large margins. Even eliminating  Shuler is just an exercise in baconmandering.

It is more of question of will they do it rather than if they can do it. In the 1992 redistricting, the GOP proposed a Black district linking Charlotte, and Wilmington. Drawing the same district would eliminate Kissell, and McIntyre.  Expanding the first into Durham and Raleigh--no need to pack Whites in the East-- and Miller into Democratic areas of the Triad and Chapel Hill finishes the trick.

There are obstacles to such a map. Current Republican Congressmen will want safer districts. The DOJ may very well try to argue electing Republicans is denying Blacks the right to a Democratic majority delegation. [They'll have tremendous hypocrisy issues trying to rationalize their demand to pack Blacks in Virginia, while opposing packing in North Carolina, but, consistency has always been for the other guys.] Individual members of the legislature will have their preferences, and no one will want to be associated with convoluted maps.

I have no illusions that what will happen in Illiniois will be very painful for the GOP. The Democratic folks here shouldn't have any illusions about NC.

[krazen1211]

No source, but:

McHenry claims to be going for 9-4.

Butterfield into Raleigh, Pack Watt, stretch Price into the Triad, and something in Fayetteville.

Perhaps like this.

[krazen1211]

Politico writeup.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/54244.html


“Republicans should pick up three seats under any fair and legal map,” McHenry said. “That is huge. No other states in the nation would gain as many Republican seats. This would be in a state that Barack Obama won in 2008 and where we have had a Democratic governor since 1992 — the longest such period in the nation. A 9-4 delegation is pretty good and would attempt to avoid the risk of a bad year for Republicans. Clearly, Reps. Kissell and Miller are serving their final term.”

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Not that I'm surprised McHenry is being a partisan ass, but Democrats would be entitled to at least 5 seats under a "fair" map: a black-majority northeastern seat, a Charlotte seat, a Winston-Salem/Greensboro seat, a Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill seat, and a seat in south central NC, around Fayetteville. And that's not counting Shuler.

[krazen1211]

I agree with the count but not the allocation. The Roanoke Rapids area isn't even close to big enough to sustain a seat, and Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill is too big, but either way you get 2 seats there.

My map opens up the idea for a WS/Greensboro seat next decade. In 2020 there will be enough Democrats in Charlotte to fill a seat, so even if McHenry can get that Mucho guy to preserve the I-85 (which satisfies his goal of splitting Mecklenberg 2 ways rather than 3, anyway), this is probably its last dance.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, I'm assuming the black-majority seat would have to dip into Raleigh or Durham to maintain its population.

[dpmapper]

Is it really worth snaking Watt's district up to the Triad if it's only going to take in Winston-Salem? Some of those voting districts you're sending it through have a lot of GOP votes in them.  

Also, I don't know how blue your McIntyre district is, but I think it's worth making sure that he is safe from being primaried (or that, if he is, the Republicans have a shot at the seat).  He's been a pretty good Dem to have around, in terms of voting record.  

ETA: And surely Foxx's district can be unpacked a little more... the way you have it, it seems almost stronger GOP than it is now. 

[krazen1211]

Is it really worth snaking Watt's district up to the Triad if it's only going to take in Winston-Salem? Some of those voting districts you're sending it through have a lot of GOP votes in them.  

Also, I don't know how blue your McIntyre district is, but I think it's worth making sure that he is safe from being primaried (or that, if he is, the Republicans have a shot at the seat).  He's been a pretty good Dem to have around, in terms of voting record.  

ETA: And surely Foxx's district can be unpacked a little more... the way you have it, it seems almost stronger GOP than it is now.  

Under any 9-4 configuration the 4th district ends up being about 58-60% Obama, once you do an uberpack of the first 3 to 70%+. This held to be true regardless of whether district 4 was placed in WS/Greensboro/High Point, or sitting solely in Bladen/Robeson/Hoke/Cumberland area, or the Wake County to Robeson configuration I plopped down there.

The reason I drew that peach 13th is that Wake is growing faster than the other areas. Any incoming liberal growth is likely to plop down there rather than a GOP district. McIntyre has a safe enough base in Robeson/Cumberland that I think he'll be OK; he can't win the grey 7th.

The I-85 is worth it because its sucking up black 95% precincts at its destination. Watt's 12th sucks up all of Kissell and Mynick's current Dem precincts but still has room to spare. So you might as well keep the Democrats' configuration.

Didn't see much I could do with Foxx's district there, so I just kind of left it in that corner.

[BigSkyBob]

Not that I'm surprised McHenry is being a partisan ass, but Democrats would be entitled to at least 5 seats under a "fair" map: a black-majority northeastern seat, a Charlotte seat, a Winston-Salem/Greensboro seat, a Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill seat, and a seat in south central NC, around Fayetteville. And that's not counting Shuler.

The notion that "fairness" requires a "Winston-Salem/Greensboro" seat is a joke. Objective redistricting starting at the West and moving East clearly links Winston-Salem with counties to the West, and Greensboro with counties to North, South or East. Blacks simply aren't the majority in the Northeast so "fairness" clearly does not call for a majority Black piece of spaghetti in the East. If "fairness" calls for a Black-majority seat in Eastern North Carolina, then "fairness" dictates that it include Blacks in Durham, and/or Wake county. Again, objective redistricting starting in the East and moving West splits "South-central" North Carolina around Fayetteville.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Is it really worth snaking Watt's district up to the Triad if it's only going to take in Winston-Salem? Some of those voting districts you're sending it through have a lot of GOP votes in them.  

Maybe, but the current district does the same thing, and Winston-Salem Democrats have to go somewhere.

ETA: And surely Foxx's district can be unpacked a little more... the way you have it, it seems almost stronger GOP than it is now. 

How? The only district it can take Democrats from is Watt's.

The reason I drew that peach 13th is that Wake is growing faster than the other areas. Any incoming liberal growth is likely to plop down there rather than a GOP district. McIntyre has a safe enough base in Robeson/Cumberland that I think he'll be OK; he can't win the grey 7th.

Safe enough to protect him from a primary challenge from Brad Miller? That district gives him by far the best shot at staying in Congress.

[krazen1211]

Safe enough to protect him from a primary challenge from Brad Miller? That district gives him by far the best shot at staying in Congress.

Should be. All of Brad Miller's current areas are in the red (Price) and blue (Butterfield) districts. He doesn't have any territory in that peach district, and the peach portion of Wake County there is only 50-55% Obama territory anyway.

That peach district is of course fairly incoherent, and I'm sure there would be some regional strife between the Robeson County areas and the Wake County area. But I think the former has more people and more Democrats.