US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Devilman88]

My maps of NC: in both maps the only Democratic districts are: 1(Dark Blue), 12(long thin line) and 13(Peach color)

[muon2]

My maps of NC: in both maps the only Democratic districts are: 1(Dark Blue), 12(long thin line) and 13(Peach color)

What are the percentages? The GOP will want to dislodge Dem incumbents and that will require districts with 55% or more for McCain.

[Devilman88]

Im not at home right now, but IIRC some of them are 52%. But not every 52% one will go vote democratic.

[minionofmidas]

I wouldn't call a 9 R - 4 D a Dem gerrymander. The incoming delegation is 6 R - 7 D, so a pickup of 2 or 3 looks pretty good to the GOP. Why would the GOP risk picking up only 1 by leaving too many swing districts on the map with entrenched D incumbents? At 9 - 4 the GOP can engineer at least 56% McCain in all the R districts and leave little to chance.

I was being slightly hyperbolic, but in my book "much more Republican" didn't mean moving from 54% McCain to 56%.  

To me, this is about probabilities: a 54% district gives the GOP at least an 80-85% chance of winning it in most years, I would guess.  Moving that to 56% maybe bumps that to 90-95%.  Is adding 10% insurance in 3-4 districts worth dropping GOP chances in one district from 60% to 5%?/quote]Is that a serious question? From the pov of the federal Republican house majority, probably not. From the pov of an individual congressman, the distinction between 85% chance every year and 95% chance every year is the distinction between job tenure and no job tenure. Now who do you think has more clout with his home state's legislature?

There's another odd little detail that I would like everybody to take note of: The Lumbee vote. Any plan splitting Robeson County - and possibly even one separating Scotland and Hoke from Robeson - is going to be challenged in court (where the chances of success aren't high but are, you know, extant), and more importantly is going to be a hard sell to a number of legislators. The area's current delegation even includes a Republican (and two Democrats, in the House; plus another Democrat in the Senate.) This can probably be easily worked with; but it ought to be kept in mind if the purpose is predicting the result.
And thus is another argument for making McIntyre one of the four Dems you're not going after.

[Sam Spade]

I wouldn't call a 9 R - 4 D a Dem gerrymander. The incoming delegation is 6 R - 7 D, so a pickup of 2 or 3 looks pretty good to the GOP. Why would the GOP risk picking up only 1 by leaving too many swing districts on the map with entrenched D incumbents? At 9 - 4 the GOP can engineer at least 56% McCain in all the R districts and leave little to chance.

I was being slightly hyperbolic, but in my book "much more Republican" didn't mean moving from 54% McCain to 56%.  

To me, this is about probabilities: a 54% district gives the GOP at least an 80-85% chance of winning it in most years, I would guess.  Moving that to 56% maybe bumps that to 90-95%.  Is adding 10% insurance in 3-4 districts worth dropping GOP chances in one district from 60% to 5%?/quote]Is that a serious question? From the pov of the federal Republican house majority, probably not. From the pov of an individual congressman, the distinction between 85% chance every year and 95% chance every year is the distinction between job tenure and no job tenure. Now who do you think has more clout with his home state's legislature?

There's another odd little detail that I would like everybody to take note of: The Lumbee vote. Any plan splitting Robeson County - and possibly even one separating Scotland and Hoke from Robeson - is going to be challenged in court (where the chances of success aren't high but are, you know, extant), and more importantly is going to be a hard sell to a number of legislators. The area's current delegation even includes a Republican (and two Democrats, in the House; plus another Democrat in the Senate.) This can probably be easily worked with; but it ought to be kept in mind if the purpose is predicting the result.
And thus is another argument for making McIntyre one of the four Dems you're not going after.

I haven't done the math, but in the past decade, you were up to 90% if you resided in an R+6 CD or better and I think a D+4 CD or better (per 2004/2008 combo - might even be 95% on the latter).

[Torie]

A 54% McCain district in a place where there wasn't much of a swing, or a negative swing, to Obama from Bush 2004 means something very different than a 54% McCain district, where there was a big swing (i.e. a Dem trend). In general, in the South, Copperhead, and fossil fuel belts, one will need a higher McCain percentage than elsewhere to reach the same measure of GOP safety.

One size does not fit all in this game. Oh, and one other thing. Look at MS-01. DeSoto County stays heavily GOP no matter what, but a Dem won the seat in the special not so long ago (losing this year), because of huge swings in the rural areas. So in some places, rural GOP numbers don't mean as much as more urban ones, particularly against a Tory Dem, when it comes to the delta function.

[minionofmidas]

Quite, quite. Though GOPhers may be hoping that that's over for good now, at least in the south. And may have grounds for such hope.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a "safe" redistricting of NC; a 9-4 Republican map is intended, and none of the seats should fall outside of a particularly nasty wave. I managed to create seven districts where the McCain percentage is 57% or 58%, one 56% McCain district, and one 54% McCain district (that should still be safe since it's a suburban Republican seat with an incumbent who isn't an awful person like Virginia Foxx). The only concession to the Dems is giving them a pretty safe (61% Obama) seat in the south central part of the state. Shuler might be able to hang on to NC-11 for a cycle or two, though.

State



Zoom of the middle of the state



NC-01 (blue, G. K. Butterfield - D) - Stretches down into Raleigh to maintain majority-black status (51% black). Old district: 62-37 Obama, new district: 67-32 Obama.
NC-02 (green, open) - Assembled from parts of the old NC-02 and surrounding districts. Ellmers is in NC-07 now, but could run here. Old district: 52-47 Obama, new district: 57-42 McCain.
NC-03 (purple, Walter Jones - R) - Not much changes here, but it does clean the borders up a bit. Old district: 61-38 McCain, new district: 57-42 McCain.
NC-04 (red, David Price - D) - Sucks in every Democratic precinct in Raleigh-Durham, Chapel Hill, and the surrounding area. Old district: 63-36 Obama, new district: 70-29 Obama.
NC-05 (yellow, Virginia Foxx - R) - Stretches down to the Charlotte suburbs. Old district: 61-38 McCain, new district: 57-42 McCain.
NC-06 (teal, Howard Coble - R) - Mostly the same, except it goes further southwest. Old district: 63-36 McCain, new district: 57-42 McCain.
NC-07 (grey, Renee Elmers - R) - I drew Ellmers into this district, though she could just as easily run in the green district (the one I originally put her in). Also put McIntyre into NC-08. McIntyre could run here, but it would be tough for him to do. Old district: 52-47 McCain, new district: 58-41 McCain.
NC-08 (light purple, Larry Kissell - D and Mike McIntyre - D) - Used this district to dump all the Dem territory in the southern part of the state. Kissell and McIntyre get to fight it out, unless McIntyre attempts to run in NC-07. Old district: 53-47 Obama, new district: 61-39 Obama.
NC-09 (sky blue, Sue Myrick - R) - Picks up some parts of Charlotte and the suburbs, mostly the same though. Old district: 55-45 McCain, new district: 54-45 McCain.
NC-10 (magenta, Patrick McHenry - R) - Stretches west to take Asheville from NC-11. Old district: 63-37 McCain, new district: 57-41 McCain.
NC-11 (light green, Heath Shuler - R) - Removes Asheville and stretches east to compensate. Old district: 52-47 McCain, new district: 57-42 McCain.
NC-12 (light purple, Mel Watt - D) - The same inner Charlotte/Winston-Salem/Greensboro. Old district: 70-29 Obama, new district: 76-23 Obama. It's now 48% black, 34% white, 14% Hispanic.
NC-13 (pink, Brad Miller - D) - Screwed over Miller by chopping Charlotte and Greensboro out of his district (he may actually live in the new NC-04) and adding a bunch of rural territory. Old district: 59-40 Obama, new district: 56-43 McCain.

[krazen1211]

There are some leftists already talking about primarying McIntyre over his promise to vote for HCR repeal. If you throw him in a 60% Obama district, hopefully he party switches and runs in Kissell's district.

I personally think Johnny has nailed it, though.

[minionofmidas]

There are some leftists already talking about primarying McIntyre over his promise to vote for HCR repeal. If you throw him in a 60% Obama district, hopefully he party switches and runs in Kissell's district.

I think Parker Griffith's fate will serve as a remainder to any prominent Democrat not a complete uberdino - and that certainly includes McIntrye - of what party switching always brings with it... namely a credibility issue. And the chance of being ejected in the least graceful way possible.*
Not that even he could win that seat for the Republicans, of course.

*And Arlen Specter's, of course.

[minionofmidas]

Where does Shuler live? Is it possible to throw him into a 57% McCain district with an R incumbent?

[Verily]

Where does Shuler live? Is it possible to throw him into a 57% McCain district with an R incumbent?

Haywood County.

[dpmapper]

Where does Shuler live? Is it possible to throw him into a 57% McCain district with an R incumbent?

Yes:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127790.msg2731457#msg2731457

[krazen1211]

Where does Shuler live? Is it possible to throw him into a 57% McCain district with an R incumbent?

Since he's in the corner of the state, I think he'll just run i whatever the corner district is.

He's pretty much invincible there in my view. You can put him in an R+10 district, but I think the GOP has to wait him out until he runs for Governor.

[Torie]

Johnny's little mappie is so good I think, that I am going to abandon my plan to work on NC next, and just sign off on his map. I think it is a wrap.  He hit all the right bases, each and every one. Well done Johnny! 

So what should I do next I wonder?  Maybe I will do a brief swing by Maryland, to see just how realistic it is for the Dems to ax a Pubbie. I tend to doubt that it is much, but I guess it is time to find out. And then maybe I will look at the liquidate Cooper's Nashville CD game in TN, to see how attractive I think that is. After that SC or IN  I guess, unless Johnny or somebody has drawn maps there that look in finished form to me.

[krazen1211]

Johnny's little mappie is so good I think, that I am going to abandon my plan to work on NC next, and just sign off on his map. I think it is a wrap.  He hit all the right bases, each and every one. Well done Johnny! 

So what should I do next I wonder?  Maybe I will do a brief swing by Maryland, to see just how realistic it is for the Dems to ax a Pubbie. I tend to doubt that it is much, but I guess it is time to find out. And then maybe I will look at the liquidate Cooper's Nashville CD game in TN, to see how attractive I think that is. After that SC or IN  I guess, unless Johnny or somebody has drawn maps there that look in finished form to me.

Hmm? It actually seems really easy for the Dems to axe both pubbies.

Frank Kratovil overperforms on the Eastern Shore, so you run MD-1 into PG County.

Roscoe Bartlett is over 80. Run him into Montgomery and he'll probably retire.

[Torie]

Johnny's little mappie is so good I think, that I am going to abandon my plan to work on NC next, and just sign off on his map. I think it is a wrap.  He hit all the right bases, each and every one. Well done Johnny! 

So what should I do next I wonder?  Maybe I will do a brief swing by Maryland, to see just how realistic it is for the Dems to ax a Pubbie. I tend to doubt that it is much, but I guess it is time to find out. And then maybe I will look at the liquidate Cooper's Nashville CD game in TN, to see how attractive I think that is. After that SC or IN  I guess, unless Johnny or somebody has drawn maps there that look in finished form to me.

Hmm? It actually seems really easy for the Dems to axe both pubbies.

Frank Kratovil overperforms on the Eastern Shore, so you run MD-1 into PG County.

Roscoe Bartlett is over 80. Run him into Montgomery and he'll probably retire.

Remember that you have two CD's where you need to keep the black percentage up. We shall see.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Thanks for the kind words. Usually I just get my maps picked apart.

I did one for Indiana, but I'm not about to get out the Excel spreadsheet to try and calculate the percentages. I haven't attempted South Carolina yet. Maryland would be a lot safer as a 7-1 map than an 8-0 map; Obama overperformed there in 2008, so diluting the districts (particularly MD-02) could backfire. Though there's nothing approaching a bench there for the Republicans.

[krazen1211]

Thanks for the kind words. Usually I just get my maps picked apart.

I did one for Indiana, but I'm not about to get out the Excel spreadsheet to try and calculate the percentages. I haven't attempted South Carolina yet. Maryland would be a lot safer as a 7-1 map than an 8-0 map; Obama overperformed there in 2008, so diluting the districts (particularly MD-02) could backfire. Though there's nothing approaching a bench there for the Republicans.

That last point is why I figure they go for it.

If either Bartlett or Harris were strong incumbents, you pack that district and be done with it.

[Torie]

Johnny's little mappie is so good I think, that I am going to abandon my plan to work on NC next, and just sign off on his map. I think it is a wrap.  He hit all the right bases, each and every one. Well done Johnny!  

So what should I do next I wonder?  Maybe I will do a brief swing by Maryland, to see just how realistic it is for the Dems to ax a Pubbie. I tend to doubt that it is much, but I guess it is time to find out. And then maybe I will look at the liquidate Cooper's Nashville CD game in TN, to see how attractive I think that is. After that SC or IN  I guess, unless Johnny or somebody has drawn maps there that look in finished form to me.

Hmm? It actually seems really easy for the Dems to axe both pubbies.

Frank Kratovil overperforms on the Eastern Shore, so you run MD-1 into PG County.

Roscoe Bartlett is over 80. Run him into Montgomery and he'll probably retire.

Well having played with the MD map a bit, I think the best the Dems can expect to do is make one of the 2 Pubbie CD's marginal, and they may not get even that far (I got down to making MD-06 a 50% McCain district, before things started getting messy), and to get to even that point,  MD-08 had to take in Annapolis and part of the Eastern Shore, so things are starting to get really bizarre. Is Van Hollen really going to want that done with his CD, particularly given that he is a partisan high profile Dem assigned to be one of their chief attack dogs, and political strategists, when it won't really in all likelihood knock off another Pubbie anyway?  I suspect not. So I am going to keep MD at no change on my redistricting score card list for the present.  I might change my mind; I doubt it, but I might. I will work on it a bit more, and put up a map at some point.

Basically only MD-08  has a significant excess of useable Dems to attack one of the Pubbie CD's, and that means attacking MD-06, and not MD-01, given where MD-08 is. The two black CD's cannot have their black percentages diluted down much, and in addition, in MD-05 the blacks will not want their 35% percentage diluted down much as well (and Hoyer needs most of  them anyway to keep his CD in the safe zone). The blacks have a veto power on redistricting in MD, basically.

Hoyer's MD-05 is only about a a Dem +8.5% PVI or so CD (so not much to give there, maybe a little, but not much, and again the blacks there are not going to want much of a dilution, since they may see that CD in their future (this is a high black increase zone), and MD-2 and MD-03 are only about Dem PVI +5.5 and 5.0, respectively (and therefore have nothing to give really).

Oh yes, for Bush 2004, MD-06 has a GOP PVI of +13%, and MD-01 is +11% GOP PVI.  So both have a lot of Pubbies to drain off and pack and move. MD-08 had a Dem PVI of 17.5%. So using just MD-08 alone, to get MD-06 down to an even PVI, means basically that MD-08 has to move 13 of its 17.5 Dem PVI points over to MD-06 to get MD-06 down to even, leaving MD-08 at just Dem +4.5 PVI. Van Hollen is just not going to allowing his Dem PVI to get down that low (and that reminds me, that I need to check where Van Hollen lives). Now to get MD-06  down to a GOP PVI of say +4% GOP PVI, I did not use MD-08 alone, but it was mostly MD-08, and as I say, at that point, the map started to get really ugly. That is when I decided to take a break.

[krazen1211]

My NC map. Johnny's is probably better, but I wanted to avoid taking the 12th to Greensboro.

Every district is 56%+. Foxx and McHenry have 59% districts.

[nclib]

Where does Shuler live? Is it possible to throw him into a 57% McCain district with an R incumbent?

Haywood County.

Also, Shuler grew up in the district, so he may be able to withstand more GOPers in his district.

[dpmapper]

There are some leftists already talking about primarying McIntyre over his promise to vote for HCR repeal. If you throw him in a 60% Obama district, hopefully he party switches and runs in Kissell's district.

I personally think Johnny has nailed it, though.

Wouldn't this argue for leaving McIntyre's district at roughly even?  If he gets primaried in a 60% Obama district, you get 4 liberals rather than 3, but if he gets primaried in a <50% Obama district (which is less likely) then the GOP has a pretty good shot of picking up the seat. 

[krazen1211]

There are some leftists already talking about primarying McIntyre over his promise to vote for HCR repeal. If you throw him in a 60% Obama district, hopefully he party switches and runs in Kissell's district.

I personally think Johnny has nailed it, though.

Wouldn't this argue for leaving McIntyre's district at roughly even?  If he gets primaried in a 60% Obama district, you get 4 liberals rather than 3, but if he gets primaried in a <50% Obama district (which is less likely) then the GOP has a pretty good shot of picking up the seat.  

Well, then 3 districts (whomever beats Kissell, Ellmers, and Jones) are all weaker.


Honestly, with 240 Republicans, it really doesn't matter whether the Democrats are liberal or 'moderate'.

[krazen1211]

Johnny's little mappie is so good I think, that I am going to abandon my plan to work on NC next, and just sign off on his map. I think it is a wrap.  He hit all the right bases, each and every one. Well done Johnny!  

So what should I do next I wonder?  Maybe I will do a brief swing by Maryland, to see just how realistic it is for the Dems to ax a Pubbie. I tend to doubt that it is much, but I guess it is time to find out. And then maybe I will look at the liquidate Cooper's Nashville CD game in TN, to see how attractive I think that is. After that SC or IN  I guess, unless Johnny or somebody has drawn maps there that look in finished form to me.

Hmm? It actually seems really easy for the Dems to axe both pubbies.

Frank Kratovil overperforms on the Eastern Shore, so you run MD-1 into PG County.

Roscoe Bartlett is over 80. Run him into Montgomery and he'll probably retire.

Well having played with the MD map a bit, I think the best the Dems can expect to do is make one of the 2 Pubbie CD's marginal, and they may not get even that far (I got down to making MD-06 a 50% McCain district, before things started getting messy), and to get to even that point,  MD-08 had to take in Annapolis and part of the Eastern Shore, so things are starting to get really bizarre. Is Van Hollen really going to want that done with his CD, particularly given that he is a partisan high profile Dem assigned to be one of their chief attack dogs, and political strategists, when it won't really in all likelihood knock off another Pubbie anyway?  I suspect not. So I am going to keep MD at no change on my redistricting score card list for the present.  I might change my mind; I doubt it, but I might. I will work on it a bit more, and put up a map at some point.

Basically only MD-08  has a significant excess of useable Dems to attack one of the Pubbie CD's, and that means attacking MD-06, and not MD-01, given where MD-08 is. The two black CD's cannot have their black percentages diluted down much, and in addition, in MD-05 the blacks will not want their 35% percentage diluted down much as well (and Hoyer needs most of  them anyway to keep his CD in the safe zone). The blacks have a veto power on redistricting in MD, basically.

Hoyer's MD-05 is only about a a Dem +8.5% PVI or so CD (so not much to give there, maybe a little, but not much, and again the blacks there are not going to want much of a dilution, since they may see that CD in their future (this is a high black increase zone), and MD-2 and MD-03 are only about Dem PVI +5.5 and 5.0, respectively (and therefore have nothing to give really).

Oh yes, for Bush 2004, MD-06 has a GOP PVI of +13%, and MD-01 is +11% GOP PVI.  So both have a lot of Pubbies to drain off and pack and move. MD-08 had a Dem PVI of 17.5%. So using just MD-08 alone, to get MD-06 down to an even PVI, means basically that MD-08 has to move 13 of its 17.5 Dem PVI points over to MD-06 to get MD-06 down to even, leaving MD-08 at just Dem +4.5 PVI. Van Hollen is just not going to allowing his Dem PVI to get down that low (and that reminds me, that I need to check where Van Hollen lives). Now to get MD-06  down to a GOP PVI of say +4% GOP PVI, I did not use MD-08 alone, but it was mostly MD-08, and as I say, at that point, the map started to get really ugly. That is when I decided to take a break.

This is my first really quick attempt at it. I'll post about it more in the Maryland thread.




Kratovil's 1st is 52% Obama.
2nd and 3rd are 59% Obama.
The more important 5th and 8th are 63% Obama.
Roscoe Bartlett's 6th is 55% Obama, and he doesn't live here anyway. At least I don't think he does. It's not too hard to work his house into Van Hollen's district.


Black districts are 51% black.