US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And 53% probably isn't enough to shore up Renee Elmers, who is basically a less attractive Christine O'Donnell. And maybe even less articulate as well (if that is somehow possible.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

McIntyre's current seat is already 52% McCain, so making it just a few points more Republican won't eliminate him. If I were a Republican drawing the map I'd just put more Democratic territory in his seat to shore him up.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think preclearance is the real obstacle but rather section 2, which would be violated if there was an attempt to dilute the black population.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know something I've realized from the app is that in the state legislature the Republicans are probably somewhat screwed even with total control because this is an odd state where the fastest growing areas are actually Democratic. The urban centers of Raleigh and Charlotte grew as fast as the exurbs and will get more influence, while the rural areas in the west did the worst population-wise. Do the Democrats even hold any seats west of Charlotte and Winston-Salem outside of Asheville?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That snake district actually helps Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Asheville wouldn't be included in a map of minority districts, which is what that is.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This has dummymander potential considering how unpleasant many of the GOP incumbents are. McHenry for example can't be considered truly safe with Asheville in his seat, he's the type of guy who can't run in anything but the most absolutely safe districts. Coble is also notably kind of a jerk and has a far too diluted district, but he's older than dirt and my just retire anyway. Ellmers is an idiot who could end up being the next Jean Schmidt. I agree that it won't oust McIntyre. The GOP can also forget about primarying Jones like has been tried since the seat is now winnable for the right type of Democrat, but then again losing seats has never kept the GOP away from nominating idiots before.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Then again, previous to 2010 both chambers were Democratic due to gerrymandering, and depressed GOP turnout in 2006, and 2008.

To be perfectly honest with you, I'm trying to remain cordial, but it does frustrate me when you seem to think your own understanding of NC politics is more informed or of greater value than that of an actual resident.

I think you're learning why most regular posters here have him on ignore.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only thing I don't like about that map really is the split of Raleigh. The Charlotte split is kind of unavoidable because of Charlotte's size, and having a district in Charlotte only and the rest put in the suburbs doesn't really work nice. It's kind of like the way Columbus is split though that's also a Republican gerrymander (granted it predates the gerrymander.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suspect NC Republicans would have a bit of an aversion to touch-point for obvious reasons.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I hope this map will be heading to the courts.

Oh, it will. You're just unlikely to get anything there. This map is of course vicious as they are out for blood.

Georgia will be fun.

Uh, what exactly can you do in Georgia besides weakening Barrow? Not much opportunity there to be aggressive.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The main issue is that the Obama DOJ will be the ones who get to decide if any map is unfairly diluting the black population in Bishop's district.