US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Verily]

10-3 R gerrymander of North Carolina

NC-01: 51% black, 73% Obama
NC-02: 53% McCain
NC-03: 55% McCain
NC-04: 60% Obama
NC-05: 61% McCain, contains both Shuler and Foxx's homes (Shuler is in Haywood while Foxx is in Avery; Foxx does not live in the current 5th, but I moved her into her district.)
NC-06: 55% McCain
NC-07: 55% McCain
NC-08: 53% McCain
NC-09: 54% McCain
NC-10: 56% McCain, open seat, McHenry was in this district previously
NC-11: 53% McCain, McHenry lives in this district while Shuler does not
NC-12: 51% black, 78% Obama
NC-13: 52% McCain

[Verily]

McHenry lives way out in the northwestern corner of Gaston County, so it'd be easy to draw him into NC-11 while keeping the map mostly intact.

Much more reasonable solution to the Research Triangle problem than the map I drew. I was too obsessed with getting the GOP suburbs in northern Wake County into a Republican district.

Anyway, I have a neutral, non-partisan Florida map to try to conform to the new rules there, will post when I have a chance. It creates a 13R-10D-3Tossup split, with three black seats and three Cuban seats, plus a coalition district around Kissimmee.

[Verily]

Where does Shuler live? Is it possible to throw him into a 57% McCain district with an R incumbent?

Haywood County.

[Verily]

North Carolina is a quarter black, doesn't it need three Black-opportunity districts?



(None of which is over 50% Black VAP; the green and grey skirting very near, the yellow doing the same if you lump the Lumbee with the other kind of colored folks.)

I'm pretty sure the Constitution does not require districts allotted by race or ethnicity.  Thanks

Statute and judge-made law do, though. Lest you need be reminded: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act

(That said, North Carolina is not a preclearance state, so the bar is pretty low, and two districts  likely meet it.)

[Verily]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

House of Representative Plan:

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Lewis-Dollar-Dockham_1&Body=House

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What's the likelihood that the Justice Department will approve these maps?  Also, when is the congressional redistricting map coming out? 

North Carolina is not subject to preclearance. (A bunch of its counties are, but I think that only applies to redistricting by the county governments, not redistricting by the state government.)

[Verily]

How exactly does switching from Raleigh to Durham fix whatever legal challenges Butterfield was talking about?

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One of her advisers told me that McHenry (ideologically) tends to skew leftward of current district. I thought that was interesting...

Good lord. Are people in that part of the country Mussolini-style fascists?

Wealthy suburbs in the South (Montgomery County, TX; Forsyth County, GA; Shelby County, AL; Lexington County, SC; DeSoto County, MS; etc.) are politically probably the nastiest places in the country.

McHenry's district has some black voters to mitigate how Republican it would otherwise be, but it's still nasty.

[Verily]

Uh, what exactly can you do in Georgia besides weakening Barrow? Not much opportunity there to be aggressive.

Depends on what they want to do with the Bishop district. I suggest adding the remainder of Muskogee County.

Plus there's the local level maps.

VRA. 4/14 = 28%; GA is 30% black. They will need a fourth black-majority district. Either Barrow's district is turned into a black majority one or, more likely, Bishop gets saved. (Alternatively, the Republicans could draw an Atlanta-to-Macon district and rip apart Bishop's seat, but I don't see why they'd prefer that to shoring up Bishop.)

[Verily]

Uh, what exactly can you do in Georgia besides weakening Barrow? Not much opportunity there to be aggressive.

Depends on what they want to do with the Bishop district. I suggest adding the remainder of Muskogee County.

Plus there's the local level maps.

VRA. 4/14 = 28%; GA is 30% black. They will need a fourth black-majority district. Either Barrow's district is turned into a black majority one or, more likely, Bishop gets saved. (Alternatively, the Republicans could draw an Atlanta-to-Macon district and rip apart Bishop's seat, but I don't see why they'd prefer that to shoring up Bishop.)

That's a load of nonsense as shown by the last Democratic Georgia map.

The Georgia legislature may try for three black seats, but they will lose in the courts, and it won't even be a close question. The black population is greater now than it was in 2000. 4/13 is 31%, while the black population in 2000 was 29%. 4/14 is 28%, and the black population is 30%.

The 2000 map didn't dilute the black vote in SW Georgia to the point of being unable to elect their preferred candidate, anyway. Any map that tries to get rid of Sanford Bishop would be doing so.

[Verily]

The Georgia legislature may try for three black seats, but they will lose in the courts, and it won't even be a close question. The black population is greater now than it was in 2000. 4/13 is 31%, while the black population in 2000 was 29%. 4/14 is 28%, and the black population is 30%.

The 2000 map didn't dilute the black vote in SW Georgia to the point of being unable to elect their preferred candidate, anyway. Any map that tries to get rid of Sanford Bishop would be doing so.

Your math is incorrect. The last Democratic map held only 2 majority black seats. 2 out of 13 is 15%.

The rest is just mindless speculation.

Eh, same difference. Seat designed to elect the preferred black candidate. This isn't baseless speculation; you're just an idiot.