US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Mr.Phips]

10-3 Republican map of North Carolina:





Going east to west:

Blue - 67-33 Obama (just over 50% black)
Green - 54-46 McCain
Purple - 55-44 McCain
Red - 53-46 McCain
Yellow - 69-30 Obama
Dark Teal - 53-46 McCain
Light Teal - 54-46 McCain
Purple - 56-43 McCain
Grey - 75-24 Obama (48% black)
Magenta - 55-44 McCain
Green - 54-45 McCain
Orange - 56-42 McCain
Light Purple - 59-40 McCain

A lot of 54%-ish McCain districts that the right Democrat could win in the right year.  McIntyre and Shuler would probably be able to hold the districts that they are in.  Even Kissell might be able to hold onto his seat. 

[Mr.Phips]

Here's my shot at 10-3:





I think getting rid of the snake would help Republicans; all they would need to do is crack W-S and Greensboro between Foxx, Price and Cobble.

NC-01 is 52.1% black and NC-12 is 41.4% black, 32.5% white.

The biggest losers here would be Jones (who's PVI gets cut in half) and McHenry (though I'm sure he'd play ball).

This map could really backfire on Republicans in the next good Dem year.  Your NC-03 looks very much like the district Marty Lancaster held easily until 1992 and is traditionally very Democratic.  The only completely safe districts for the GOP here are NC-05, NC-06, and NC-11.  This could be a 10-3 Democratic map by 2016. 

[Mr.Phips]

Although this map has a clear Republican bent to it and the current Democratic congressmen are probably SOL I feel like this map has the potential to give the GOP some heartburn down the road.  If the overall Democratic trend in the state holds up and the Democrats continue to pursue North Carolina at the presidential level I think some of those districts that are now 55% McCain might be more like 50-50 districts in 2016.

Those are pretty much my thoughts too.  Districts like NC-02, NC-06 and NC-09 are a ticking time bomb for Republicans. 

[Mr.Phips]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

That's not that much different than the current map.  The current map has 30 McCain districts and 20 Obama districts.

[Mr.Phips]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

That's not that much different than the current map.  The current map has 30 McCain districts and 20 Obama districts.

The key issue is avoiding the donut hole of 53-59% districts which are inefficient packs.

In 2010 senate, 33 districts are 57%+ Burr, and 15 districts are 54%+ Marshall. Only 2 are in between.

Burr's 2010 performance was pretty much the ceiling for what Republicans can get in North Carolina these days.  I looked at the 2008 McCain/Obama numbers and there are a number of districts that McCain barely won.  SD-09, SD-17, and SD-27 come to mind.   

[Mr.Phips]

A court will let the legislature fix this technical error. You can bank on it.

Oh, I do suppose so. It's just, you know, funny. I mean, wtf do they have preclearance for?

Apparently, Texas.


Joe Hackney is making the hail mary argument.

Holder has really pissed me off by punting on NC, SC and LA.

We better end up with a court-drawn Texas, or something, for the sheer lack of effort tthe DOJ has invested in the other states.

Holder should have pushed for the creation of another black majority district in AL, SC, and LA.  It could easily be done. 

[Mr.Phips]

A court will let the legislature fix this technical error. You can bank on it.

Oh, I do suppose so. It's just, you know, funny. I mean, wtf do they have preclearance for?

Apparently, Texas.


Joe Hackney is making the hail mary argument.

Holder has really pissed me off by punting on NC, SC and LA.

We better end up with a court-drawn Texas, or something, for the sheer lack of effort tthe DOJ has invested in the other states.

Holder should have pushed for the creation of another black majority district in AL, SC, and LA.  It could easily be done. 

No! Quite the contrary. The 1st is good enough. The Republicans already tried to pack as many blacks into the 12th as they could without violating the Shaw ruling.

No, what the DOJ should be doing is requiring the creation of as many black majority districts as possible in these VRA states.  By having a bunch of 50%-55% black districts, it makes it much more difficult for Republicans to vote-sink. 

[Mr.Phips]

While possible to draw, I doubt that such a district in either Louisiana or Alabama could have been upheld.
South Carolina is a different matter, actually. Though they would have to be quite tentaclish in which rural precincts to include or exclude, the two Black districts to draw there would have been far more logically composed than the one they actually drew.
Of course, Dems were okay with it because the two seats might have been lost in a 2010clone style wave...

The two seats would likely be around 53% black and in the high 50's for Obama.  I could see these two seats being held to the low 50's in a year like 2010, but I doubt Democrats would have lost them even in 2010. 

[Mr.Phips]

House Bill 606, a bipartisan bill that creates an independent redistricting process, seems to be gaining steam.

I emailed my Representative, Charles Jeter, a conservative Republican who represents a swingy district, and I was pleasantly surprised to find out that he supports it.

Democrats should have passed this in 2010.

[Mr.Phips]

House Bill 606, a bipartisan bill that creates an independent redistricting process, seems to be gaining steam.

I emailed my Representative, Charles Jeter, a conservative Republican who represents a swingy district, and I was pleasantly surprised to find out that he supports it.

Democrats should have passed this in 2010.

Just before redistricting both parties hold out hope that they will control the maps, so they resist reform. Ohio had competing reform proposals in the House and Senate in 2010, but neither side wanted to budge, and they were willing to gamble all or nothing at the Nov polls.

All Democrats needed to do in 2010 was look at not just the state generic legislative ballot, but polls in individual districts.  Democratic incumbents were trailing in must win districts by double digits as early as June of 2010. 

[Mr.Phips]

Here's how the State Senate would have voted in 2008 for Senate and Governor. Under the old lines, Perdue carried 27 districts and Hagan had 26. With the current lines, they were each reduced to 24.

Governor:



Senate:



Majority Leader Phil Berger's district actually flipped to Hagan; the Republicans packed Democrats into a single safe district in Guilford County, so Berger had to take a hit.

The fact that Hagan won just 26 districts when she was winning by nine points statewide shows that the old map wasn't too good for dems either.

[Mr.Phips]

There were a few seats that should have never flipped in 2010. The Democraic candidates in the Wilson/Nash and Bladen/Cumberland districts, for example, would have only needed to run a few points ahead of Marshall.

This was pretty much the case all over the country in 2010. 

The Wilson/Nash seat(SD-11) came within 300 votes of voting for Marshall, yet the Dem lost by six points. 

[Mr.Phips]

Here's a good article on the differences between the House and Senate.

The independent redistricting bill would likely pass the House, but get stalled in the Senate.

This guy reminds me of krazen:

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As usual my Senator is being his typical partisan jackass self:

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'Pisses me off.

Democrats in Wake and Guilford county should tell Rucho to but out of local/municipal issues where he doesnt belong.  How would he like it if Obama came in and drew the state legislature lines?  I bet he'd be having a fit.