US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[JohnnyLongtorso]

10-3 Republican map of North Carolina:





Going east to west:

Blue - 67-33 Obama (just over 50% black)
Green - 54-46 McCain
Purple - 55-44 McCain
Red - 53-46 McCain
Yellow - 69-30 Obama
Dark Teal - 53-46 McCain
Light Teal - 54-46 McCain
Purple - 56-43 McCain
Grey - 75-24 Obama (48% black)
Magenta - 55-44 McCain
Green - 54-45 McCain
Orange - 56-42 McCain
Light Purple - 59-40 McCain

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I can buy McIntyre holding onto his district, but Shuler's district cuts out Asheville, which he needs to survive, and Kissell's district is made about 7 points more Republican, and adds a lot of new territory in suburban Charlotte.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a "safe" redistricting of NC; a 9-4 Republican map is intended, and none of the seats should fall outside of a particularly nasty wave. I managed to create seven districts where the McCain percentage is 57% or 58%, one 56% McCain district, and one 54% McCain district (that should still be safe since it's a suburban Republican seat with an incumbent who isn't an awful person like Virginia Foxx). The only concession to the Dems is giving them a pretty safe (61% Obama) seat in the south central part of the state. Shuler might be able to hang on to NC-11 for a cycle or two, though.

State



Zoom of the middle of the state



NC-01 (blue, G. K. Butterfield - D) - Stretches down into Raleigh to maintain majority-black status (51% black). Old district: 62-37 Obama, new district: 67-32 Obama.
NC-02 (green, open) - Assembled from parts of the old NC-02 and surrounding districts. Ellmers is in NC-07 now, but could run here. Old district: 52-47 Obama, new district: 57-42 McCain.
NC-03 (purple, Walter Jones - R) - Not much changes here, but it does clean the borders up a bit. Old district: 61-38 McCain, new district: 57-42 McCain.
NC-04 (red, David Price - D) - Sucks in every Democratic precinct in Raleigh-Durham, Chapel Hill, and the surrounding area. Old district: 63-36 Obama, new district: 70-29 Obama.
NC-05 (yellow, Virginia Foxx - R) - Stretches down to the Charlotte suburbs. Old district: 61-38 McCain, new district: 57-42 McCain.
NC-06 (teal, Howard Coble - R) - Mostly the same, except it goes further southwest. Old district: 63-36 McCain, new district: 57-42 McCain.
NC-07 (grey, Renee Elmers - R) - I drew Ellmers into this district, though she could just as easily run in the green district (the one I originally put her in). Also put McIntyre into NC-08. McIntyre could run here, but it would be tough for him to do. Old district: 52-47 McCain, new district: 58-41 McCain.
NC-08 (light purple, Larry Kissell - D and Mike McIntyre - D) - Used this district to dump all the Dem territory in the southern part of the state. Kissell and McIntyre get to fight it out, unless McIntyre attempts to run in NC-07. Old district: 53-47 Obama, new district: 61-39 Obama.
NC-09 (sky blue, Sue Myrick - R) - Picks up some parts of Charlotte and the suburbs, mostly the same though. Old district: 55-45 McCain, new district: 54-45 McCain.
NC-10 (magenta, Patrick McHenry - R) - Stretches west to take Asheville from NC-11. Old district: 63-37 McCain, new district: 57-41 McCain.
NC-11 (light green, Heath Shuler - R) - Removes Asheville and stretches east to compensate. Old district: 52-47 McCain, new district: 57-42 McCain.
NC-12 (light purple, Mel Watt - D) - The same inner Charlotte/Winston-Salem/Greensboro. Old district: 70-29 Obama, new district: 76-23 Obama. It's now 48% black, 34% white, 14% Hispanic.
NC-13 (pink, Brad Miller - D) - Screwed over Miller by chopping Charlotte and Greensboro out of his district (he may actually live in the new NC-04) and adding a bunch of rural territory. Old district: 59-40 Obama, new district: 56-43 McCain.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Thanks for the kind words. Usually I just get my maps picked apart.

I did one for Indiana, but I'm not about to get out the Excel spreadsheet to try and calculate the percentages. I haven't attempted South Carolina yet. Maryland would be a lot safer as a 7-1 map than an 8-0 map; Obama overperformed there in 2008, so diluting the districts (particularly MD-02) could backfire. Though there's nothing approaching a bench there for the Republicans.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Oh dear. My rule of thumb is that you have to get up to 53% black to be confident that you are up to 50% black VAP. 51% won't cut it. Thanks for the comparison Muon2.

The current NC-01 is only 50.7% black, so I don't think maintaining 51% will engender a successful challenge.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They've actually got two in the House:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Rapp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._Phillip_Haire

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't get it, why would they want to end NC-12? It's a Dem vote sink; if they contract it to Charlotte, they still have to do something with Greensboro and Winston-Salem.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Coble's like 900 years old, it would be just as easy to wait a few years.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The district wasn't majority-black when they drew it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Not that I'm surprised McHenry is being a partisan ass, but Democrats would be entitled to at least 5 seats under a "fair" map: a black-majority northeastern seat, a Charlotte seat, a Winston-Salem/Greensboro seat, a Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill seat, and a seat in south central NC, around Fayetteville. And that's not counting Shuler.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, I'm assuming the black-majority seat would have to dip into Raleigh or Durham to maintain its population.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It spawned from this post about a Patrick McHenry quote:

Politico writeup.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/54244.html


“Republicans should pick up three seats under any fair and legal map,” McHenry said. “That is huge. No other states in the nation would gain as many Republican seats. This would be in a state that Barack Obama won in 2008 and where we have had a Democratic governor since 1992 — the longest such period in the nation. A 9-4 delegation is pretty good and would attempt to avoid the risk of a bad year for Republicans. Clearly, Reps. Kissell and Miller are serving their final term.”

The Republicans in the North Carolina legislature are also claiming that they're planning on doing a "fair" map, keeping counties together, eliminating the NC-12 snake, and whatnot.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

McHenry isn't going to want his district's margin cut from 63-36 to 54-45.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You underestimate the typical Congressman's desire for self-preservation above all else. Even moreso when it's a rabid partisan like McHenry who gets little to no crossover support.

The Congressional map is due out on July 1, I think.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So they went for 10-3; not exactly unexpected. McHenry and Foxx's districts are diluted, but probably not enough to cause them to lose. I do think they're playing with fire making NC-12 majority-black; that could open the district up to being declared an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It continues into there (though the percentage declines), so the three counties belong together. I'd consider it stomachable if they'd just split them from Robeson rather than splitting Robeson itself, though.

(As to the rest of the map, I'd echo Al's sentiments of "what comes around goes around".  As long as no idiot tries to pretend this isn't a bad gerrymander, I cannot even manage fake outrage. But Indian issues tend to be close to my heart, and splitting Indian communities is quite rightly something that used to be "not done" in redistricting.)

The Democrats did this to themselves when they removed the governor's veto power because they were afraid of having a Republican governor veto their plan.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It continues into there (though the percentage declines), so the three counties belong together. I'd consider it stomachable if they'd just split them from Robeson rather than splitting Robeson itself, though.

(As to the rest of the map, I'd echo Al's sentiments of "what comes around goes around".  As long as no idiot tries to pretend this isn't a bad gerrymander, I cannot even manage fake outrage. But Indian issues tend to be close to my heart, and splitting Indian communities is quite rightly something that used to be "not done" in redistricting.)

The Democrats did this to themselves when they removed the governor's veto power because they were afraid of having a Republican governor veto their plan.

What year? The governor of NC didn't use to have veto power over anything until the 1990s. I thought it was a holdover from that.

Okay, it wasn't "removed" but instead "exempted", but the principle is the same:

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

This has dummymander potential considering how unpleasant many of the GOP incumbents are. McHenry for example can't be considered truly safe with Asheville in his seat, he's the type of guy who can't run in anything but the most absolutely safe districts. Coble is also notably kind of a jerk and has a far too diluted district, but he's older than dirt and my just retire anyway. Ellmers is an idiot who could end up being the next Jean Schmidt. I agree that it won't oust McIntyre. The GOP can also forget about primarying Jones like has been tried since the seat is now winnable for the right type of Democrat, but then again losing seats has never kept the GOP away from nominating idiots before.

I don't think any of the Republican incumbents will be in serious danger outside of a disastrous Republican year. I can see McIntyre holding on, but he'd probably be out in the next good Republican year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've been using DRA to figure out what percentages of the old districts correspond to the new districts, and here's what I've done so far. This, of course, isn't exact, since there are quite a few split precincts in places Wake County, but it's pretty close:

New NC-02

NC-02 - 39%
NC-04 - 32%
NC-07 - 14%
NC-08 - 10%
NC-03 - 4%
NC-01 - 0.4%

New NC-07

NC-07 - 67%
NC-03 - 33%

New NC-08

NC-08 - 62%
NC-06 - 18%
NC-07 - 13%
NC-09 - 6%
NC-12 - 1%

New NC-11

NC-11 - 72%
NC-10 - 28%

New NC-13

NC-13 - 42%
NC-05 - 22%
NC-04 - 20%
NC-06 - 11%
NC-02 - 5%

One observation about NC-02: a Republican with a base in southern Wake County could mount a pretty serious challenge to Ellmers.