US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's your Republican gerrymander of North Carolina.









CD-1: Incumbent:G.K. Butterfield (D). This district barely breaks 50% black. For those of you who want to draw your own map, I highly recommend drawing minority districts first, otherwise you can easily paint yourself into a corner. 63.36% Obama.
CD-2: Incumbent: Renee Ellmers (R). This plan shores up Ellmers' district by removing Democratic areas of Cumberland and Wake counties and including more Republican areas. 57.56% McCain.
CD-3: Incumbent: Walter Jones (R). This plan moves Jones out of this district, since he lives in a precinct with a significant Black minority that was needed for Butterfield's district. 59.69% McCain.
CD-4: Incumbent: David Price (D). This plan packs as many Democrats as possible into Price's district, to shore up Ellmers and weaken Miller. 69.07% Obama.
CD-5: Incumbent: Virginia Foxx (R). Republicans in this district were greatly diluted to suit Republican needs elsewhere. Asheville was included to weaken Shuler, and Democratic parts of Winston-Salem were included to keep them out of the 6th, which took in Democratic parts of Greensboro to weaken Miller. 54.26% McCain.
CD-6: Incumbent: Howard Coble (R). As stated above, this district takes in Democratic parts of Greensboro in order to weaken Miller. 56.42% McCain.
CD-7: Incumbent: Mike McIntyre (D). This plan packs as many Democrats as possible into McIntyre's district, to shore up Ellmers and weaken Kissell. Only 50.40% White. 56.66% Obama.
CD-8: Incumbent: Larry Kissell (D). Kissell is severely weakened by the removal of Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties and Democratic parts of Fayetteville. These areas were replaced by Republican territory in Fayetteville and in Rowan, Moore, Lee, Chatham, and Alamance counties. 56.48% McCain.
CD-9: Incumbent: Sue Myrick (R). Not much changed here. 52.61% McCain. It sounds marginal, but I'm fairly certain Obama overperformed here.
CD-10: Incumbent: Patrick McHenry (R). The border changes here were mostly intended to weaken Shuler. 61.97% McCain.
CD-11: Incumbent: Heath Shuler (D). This plan screws Shuler by removing Asheville and replacing it with Republican territory in Cleveland and Gaston counties. 57.56% McCain.
CD-12: Incumbent: Mel Watt (D). Not much changed here. 50.53% Black, 76.85% Obama.
CD-13: Incumbent: Brad Miller (D). While I didn't manage to draw a McCain district for Miller, I did manage to weaken him somewhat by removing Democratic parts of Greensboro and Burlington and replacing them with Republican areas to the east. 52.03% Obama.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Is it really worth snaking Watt's district up to the Triad if it's only going to take in Winston-Salem? Some of those voting districts you're sending it through have a lot of GOP votes in them.  

Maybe, but the current district does the same thing, and Winston-Salem Democrats have to go somewhere.

ETA: And surely Foxx's district can be unpacked a little more... the way you have it, it seems almost stronger GOP than it is now. 

How? The only district it can take Democrats from is Watt's.

The reason I drew that peach 13th is that Wake is growing faster than the other areas. Any incoming liberal growth is likely to plop down there rather than a GOP district. McIntyre has a safe enough base in Robeson/Cumberland that I think he'll be OK; he can't win the grey 7th.

Safe enough to protect him from a primary challenge from Brad Miller? That district gives him by far the best shot at staying in Congress.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Not that I'm surprised McHenry is being a partisan ass, but Democrats would be entitled to at least 5 seats under a "fair" map: a black-majority northeastern seat, a Charlotte seat, a Winston-Salem/Greensboro seat, a Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill seat, and a seat in south central NC, around Fayetteville. And that's not counting Shuler.

The notion that "fairness" requires a "Winston-Salem/Greensboro" seat is a joke. Objective redistricting starting at the West and moving East clearly links Winston-Salem with counties to the West, and Greensboro with counties to North, South or East. Blacks simply aren't the majority in the Northeast so "fairness" clearly does not call for a majority Black piece of spaghetti in the East. If "fairness" calls for a Black-majority seat in Eastern North Carolina, then "fairness" dictates that it include Blacks in Durham, and/or Wake county. Again, objective redistricting starting in the East and moving West splits "South-central" North Carolina around Fayetteville.

This seems pretty damn reasonable to me. I started in the west and moved east. The yellow northeastern district is 50.7% VAP black, and looks much more reasonable than the current district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I have no doubt that partisan gerrymandering in your favor seems "reasonable" to you. Nor do I doubt that partisan gerrymander in your favor seem "fair" to you. Nor, do I doubt that partisan gerrymandering in your favor seems "objective" to you.

Firstly, let me assure you that if I were engaging in "partisan gerrymandering in [my] favor," I would do a hell of a lot better than an 8-5 Republican delegation!

You have expanded a Charlotte surburban district way east to Moore county just to avoid including Northern suburbs that would result in the Northern areas including Winston-Salem.  A person using objective redistricting criteria would never include such a finger. It is a partisan results-driven  exercise.

Actually, since I drew the green district first, I drew the green district to include Iredell and Rowan counties in order to keep the core cities of the Triad (Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and High Point) intact. These cities are an obvious community of interest that should be in the same district. The grey district is not ideal, and should not extend so far east, but with the west already drawn there is nowhere to go but east. Even if it included Anson and Richmond counties, it would still have to go into either Moore or Scotland.

Likewise, having a district wrap around Greensboro  is partisan-driven gerrymandering. Why objectivity demands pairing Winston-Salem and part of Greensboro in the Triad rather than Winston-Salem, Davidson County and Highpoint [Where you can pair two whole counties] is an exercise in rationalization at best, and an absurdity at worse.

As I've stated above, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and High Point are the core cities of the Triad. They are why it is called a "triad" in the first place. It makes sense for them to be in the same district. The alternative is to split them and include each in a district dominated by their suburbs and exurbs. My map has a coherent district for the core cities and a coherent district for the suburbs and exurbs.

In the East we see the same gerrymandering passed off as objectivity. Instead of creating a coastal district that expands inland, or a Southern tier district, you try to create a Southern tier district that excludes the Republican areas along the tier, but expands Northward to find Democrats, and a coastal district that won't expand to the next county in the South, but, expands way to the West in its Northern reaches. 

Well, where would you put Fayetteville? It has more ties to the Southern Tier than to the coast or the Raleigh suburbs. Or are your referring to the Wilmington district? If you are, you'll find that that district is quite Republican. The northeastern district is Republican as well, especially since the black areas of Pitt and Wilson counties were put in the black district. So if I'm a Democratic hack, where's the partisan gerrymander here? The decision to split the coastal districts on a north-south basis rather than an east-west one was purely arbitrary, and the eastern part of the peach district can be exchanged for the western part of the baby blue district.

No, a West-to-East sweep would not have bypassed Highpoint as your map did.

We've been through this. High Point belongs with Greensboro and Winston-Salem more than with their suburbs and exurbs.

Here is a bit of reality for you: the district regressed! If you are going to dip into Durham and Raleigh, a 58% Black VAP population is a more appropriate minimum target, while a 65% Black population would result in Blacks selecting "the candidate of their choice" in the next election.

Here's a bit of reality for you. Blacks elected "the candidate of their choice" in 2010 (a Republican wave year) in the current district, which is only 48% black (or were you unaware that G. K. Butterfield is black? That's okay, it's an easy mistake.). The inclusion of Raleigh and Durham may mean that some more white Democrats would be in the district, but I doubt it would be enough for Butterfield or another black Democrat to lose the primary. I suppose, however, that the Wake County split is unacceptable. If we're throwing the VRA out the window for Watt, I see no reason why it should be preserved for Butterfield.

I may make changes to the map later.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

What is all of this "fairness" chat about in the context of one party having control of drawing the lines? When that happens you gerrymander in this day and age (unless you are Mitch Daniels in Indiana who likes to play Mr. Nice Guy).

Based off McHenry's hackish as all hell comments.  Basically according to McHenry, if its an extreme GOP Gerrymander its a "fair" map, and if its anything other than a heavy GOP gerrymander, its not fair.

That's actually based off a century of Democratic history. Fair map was what they said was a fair map.

The fact that a state was a Democratic stronghold in the past has no bearing whatsoever on what constitutes a "fair" map today. Based on current regional voting patterns, a "fair" map would be 7-5-Shuler. A map that "fairly" represents the partisan breakdown of the state, based on recent statewide vote totals would be 7-6 Republican.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

This despicable gerrymander almost makes the Illinois map look amateurish in comparison.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

If that 4th district is not the the ugliest non-VRA district in the history of the world, then I don't know what is. Still, I have to admit, one shoestring isn't good for anything. You have to have two to be able to tie your shoes.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

They definitely did no worse than the existing map.

The existing map has a 4th district that reflects a sensible community of interest. It doesn't stretch all the way to Fayetteville for partisan gain.

The existing map only splits Wake County three ways, which is bad enough. The Republican map splits it four ways.

The existing map only splits Forsyth County two ways, and only to accomodate the VRA district. The Republican map splits it three ways.

The existing map leaves the city of Asheville intact. The Republican map splits it for partisan gain.

The existing map leaves Harnett County intact. The Republican map splits it three ways for partisan gain and to prevent an Etheridge comeback.

The existing map splits Rowan and Davidson Counties only two ways. The Republican map splits them three ways.

Furthermore, the Republican map also seems to keep the most egregious splits from the existing map:
          -Three-way split of Cumberland County? Check.
          -Three-way split of Guilford County? Check, although at least they got rid of the touch-point contiguity, I think. The 12th looks pretty damn narrow there.

Now, I'm certainly not saying that the existing map is fair. It is definitely a Democratic gerrymander. But this map takes gerrymandering to a whole new level.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

There were other splits that were undone that you forgot to mention.

The existing map splits Mecklenberg, and I think even Charlotte, 3 ways. This map splits them 2 ways.

The existing map dives CD-1 all the way down to Craven County as well as other numerous tentacles. The new map shrinks and eliminates the tentacles.

The existing map splits Raleigh between 3 Congressional districts. Looking at the new map, it appears to split Raleigh only 2 ways.

The existing map splits Rutherford and Gaston County. The new map does not.

Mecklenburg has already been addressed.

The new map does indeed shrink NC-01's tentacles, but at the expense of an additional split in Wake County.

I can't really tell about the city of Raleigh just from the map.

The existing map does indeed split Rutherford and Gaston Counties where the new map does not, but now you're splitting hairs. There will (in most states) always be split counties, if only to conform to population equality, which is why I avoided criticizing the counties that are split only two ways in the new map. If the existing splits in Rutherford and Gaston Counties are fair game, then I can bring up the new map's splits in Catawba, Randolph, Lee, Orange, Durham, Franklin, Robeson, Martin, Chowan, Perquimans, and Pasquotank Counties.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

There were other splits that were undone that you forgot to mention.

The existing map splits Mecklenberg, and I think even Charlotte, 3 ways. This map splits them 2 ways.

The existing map dives CD-1 all the way down to Craven County as well as other numerous tentacles. The new map shrinks and eliminates the tentacles.

The existing map splits Raleigh between 3 Congressional districts. Looking at the new map, it appears to split Raleigh only 2 ways.

The existing map splits Rutherford and Gaston County. The new map does not.

Mecklenburg has already been addressed.

The new map does indeed shrink NC-01's tentacles, but at the expense of an additional split in Wake County.

I can't really tell about the city of Raleigh just from the map.

The existing map does indeed split Rutherford and Gaston Counties where the new map does not, but now you're splitting hairs. There will (in most states) always be split counties, if only to conform to population equality, which is why I avoided criticizing the counties that are split only two ways in the new map. 

This last part by you just isn't true. Buncombe  is split into exactly two districts. You yelled "Bloody murder!" about that split.

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I know I'm ignoring you, but I feel I should respond here. I made a special exception for Buncombe County, and the city of Asheville in particular, because it is the largest county (and city) in that region, and has formed the core of a district in that area probably for as long as North Carolina has been a state.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

And it was in that capacity that it contributed to the English language.

Indeed. He was talking for Buncombe.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

And, if the Republican trend reasserts itself, and at the Presidential level the Republicans regain their historic advantage, these districts could be 59-41 Republican by 2016.

Republican trend lol

Feel free to compare the number of GOP state legislators in North Carolina compare to forty years ago. The long term trend has been clear enough. Whether there has been an acceleration of that trend towards the GOP in 2010, a leveling off of that trend, a reversal of that trend, or a blip in the last several years is a matter of speculation.

Yes, we all know that the south, including North Carolina, has turned from a Democratic stronghold to a Republican leaning one since the 1960's. The parties have changed much since then, as has the state itself, so the comparison proves little. Looking at the more relevent trend over the past decade, you'll notice that Republican performance generally peaked around 2000 (with the obvious exception of 2010). Kerry slightly outperformed Gore in North Carolina, and Obama carried the state. The General Assembly went from a 60-60 tie in 2003 to a 68-52 Democratic majority in 2009. Democrats gained two seats in the Congressional delegation between 2004 and 2008. These signs show that the current trend in North Carolina is toward the Democrats- it remains to be seen whether 2010 reversed that trend or was a one-off thing brought on by a Republican wave.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Oh great, I'm now stuck in the district with that douche Miller.

Yeah, but you'll feel happy when you get to vote that "douche" Miller out of office.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The map at the link below is one of the most interesting maps I have seen:

http://www.carolinapoliticsonline.com/2011/07/04/fair-districts/

[The mapmaker embraces the absurdities of so-called "libertarianism."]

[sarcasm]Yes, that is without a doubt the fairest map I have ever seen. Obviously any fair map would split Charlotte and Raleigh right down the middle. [/sarcasm]

You'd think a "libertarian" would care more about communities of interest. If there's one thing I agree with BigSkyBob about, it's that libertarianism is absurd.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

North Carolina maps.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho_Senate_1&Body=Senate


33 districts that McCain won.
2 districts between 50-53% Obama.

15 districts above 59% Obama.

House of Representative Plan:

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Lewis-Dollar-Dockham_1&Body=House

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What's the likelihood that the Justice Department will approve these maps?  Also, when is the congressional redistricting map coming out? 

North Carolina is not subject to preclearance. (A bunch of its counties are, but I think that only applies to redistricting by the county governments, not redistricting by the state government.)

As some people on this forum who are more knowlegable on this issue than myself have said repeatedly, Congressional redistricting plans are subject to preclearance because they affect the counties that are subject to preclearance.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Redistricting really needs to be taken out of the hands of legislatures.

Quoted for truth.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

One of her advisers told me that McHenry (ideologically) tends to skew leftward of current district. I thought that was interesting...

Good lord. Are people in that part of the country Mussolini-style fascists?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Is the swiggly-line district really necessary?

Which one? I count no fewer than four swiggly-line districts.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The goal really is to get rid of any white legislator who is not a Republican and that is discrimination.

Thats the Republicans' strategy in most of the south country

Fixed.