US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[dpmapper]

Another NC 10-3 for the GOP, maybe a bit less stringy than the ones above:

I can't post links yet but here it is:


CD1 (dark blue): Butterfield's district, now 51% black and 73-26 Obama.  Obviously in any GOP-favorable map the black sections of Raleigh/Durham have to get added to this district.  
CD2 (tan): Ellmers's district, was 52-47 Obama, now 54-45 McCain.  Loses Fayetteville and the western parts of her current district, as well as part of Raleigh, for the more purplish parts of Cary and Raleigh suburbs and more eastern counties.  
CD3 (dark purple): Jones's district, still 55-44 McCain... both CD2 and CD3 look a lot less jagged than they used to be.  
CD4 (dark green): Price's district, but Miller lives there too, I guess.  In any case this is a Dem-packed Triangle district: 61-38 Obama.  
CD5 (hot pink): Foxx's district.  Added most of Asheville but still 58-41 for McCain.  
CD6 (red): Coble's district shifted north to take in much of Miller's.  55-44 McCain.  Still a little strange-looking, unfortunately.  
CD7 (lime green): McIntyre's district.  He might still win, but it's gone from 52-47 McCain to 55-45 (lost parts of Fayetteville and Robeson county).  
CD8 (dark teal): Most of Kissell's district, but he doesn't live here any more.  Used to be 52-47 Obama, is now 54-45 McCain.  
CD9 (grey): From the GOP point of view, this is my one problem: McHenry and Myrick both live here, I think (depends on where in Charlotte Myrick's house is).  Maybe McHenry can move into the new 10th, or a bit west to challenge Shuler in the 11th, or Myrick can move into Union County and take the 8th?  Or one could just mess with the lines between 8/9 to put Myrick in 8 without anyone moving... in any case it's 55-44 McCain.
CD10 (lavender): No current representative lives here, I believe.  (It takes in parts of McHenry's old 10th and Foxx's old 5th, plus some blue-purple sections of Charlotte.) Goes for McCain 55-44.  
CD11 (light blue): Shuler's district.  Formerly 52-47 McCain, it's now 55-43 McCain.  
CD12 (yellow): Watt's district, much the same as before.  51% black and 78% for Obama.  Probably with finer precinct control one can get those figures higher.  
CD13 (light teal): Kissell lives here, but most of the territory is new to him (formerly Coble's).  It's 53-46 McCain whereas Kissell's former district was 52-47 Obama.  


Edited by the moderator to make the map visible.

[dpmapper]

McHenry lives way out in the northwestern corner of Gaston County, so it'd be easy to draw him into NC-11 while keeping the map mostly intact.

Good point.  I did that, shifting all of Cleveland County and the corner of Gaston into the 11th, taking more of Asheville into the 5th and moving half of Catawba into the 9th.  Additional benefit: 11th CD is now 58-41 McCain.  

[dpmapper]

A lot of 54%-ish McCain districts that the right Democrat could win in the right year.  McIntyre and Shuler would probably be able to hold the districts that they are in.  Even Kissell might be able to hold onto his seat. 

You know, you say this a lot.  A 54% McCain district is roughly a R+7 PVI - do you know how many districts that are D+7 or more that the GOP won in the wave this year?  ZERO.  Granted, the Dems have had more success holding R+7 districts than vice versa, but there weren't all that many of them and most of them relied on entrenched incumbents (Spratt, Skelton, Edwards, Gordon, Tanner, Boucher...) and probably won't be swinging back any time soon.  So yeah, it's not impossible, but a district like that should be reasonably secure, and even in a strong Dem wave should be no worse than a 50-50 barring scandal.  If you make districts much more GOP you end up with a *Democratic* gerrymander. 

[dpmapper]

I wouldn't call a 9 R - 4 D a Dem gerrymander. The incoming delegation is 6 R - 7 D, so a pickup of 2 or 3 looks pretty good to the GOP. Why would the GOP risk picking up only 1 by leaving too many swing districts on the map with entrenched D incumbents? At 9 - 4 the GOP can engineer at least 56% McCain in all the R districts and leave little to chance.

I was being slightly hyperbolic, but in my book "much more Republican" didn't mean moving from 54% McCain to 56%.  

To me, this is about probabilities: a 54% district gives the GOP at least an 80-85% chance of winning it in most years, I would guess.  Moving that to 56% maybe bumps that to 90-95%.  Is adding 10% insurance in 3-4 districts worth dropping GOP chances in one district from 60% to 5%?  That's the choice.  It's not as if going from 54% to 56% moves you from a tossup to completely safe.  

Now, one could argue that in particular cases it might be worth doing this.  For instance, McIntyre is an 8-term Democrat who is pretty darn strong and votes conservatively (making the fivethirtyeight list of least valuable Dems), so maybe it's worth leaving him alone.  My next post will contain a map that does just that.  

[dpmapper]

From SE to NW:

Bright Green (McIntyre):
The theory (as stated in the previous post) is that McIntyre is actually a pretty good Dem to leave in office.  I didn't want to pack it with Dems, however, for two reasons: 1) it maintains his incentive to keep voting conservatively; 2) if the Dems primary him out from the left (which might happen if you make his district much more liberal) or McIntyre leaves office for any other reason, then the GOP still has a better than 50/50 shot at winning the seat.  All the surrounding seats are safe enough for the GOP that there's not much need for the McCain percentage to budge from 52%.  

Purple (Jones): 56-43 McCain.
Light Blue (Ellmers): 55-44 McCain.  (The district she just won was 52-47 Obama.)
Dark Blue (Butterfield): 53% black, 72% Obama.  
Tan: 56-44 McCain.  Not sure if he lives here, but Miller probably would run here... badly: Miller's previous was 59-40 Obama.  
Green (Price): 66-33 Obama.  

Sea Green/Dark Teal (Kissell): 55-44 McCain, compared with 52-47 Obama with the previous lines.  Kissell is only in his 2nd term now, and lucked out with a weak opponent this year (at least, that's my understanding).  I've got to believe this is sufficient to knock him out.  

Red (Coble): 56-43 McCain.
Yellow (Watt): 51% black, 78% Obama.
Lavender (open): 56-43 McCain.
Grey (Myrick): 55-44 McCain.
Pink (Foxx): 55-44 McCain.
Bluish periwinkle whatever-you-call-that-color (Shuler, McHenry): 58-41 McCain, compared with 52-47 in Shuler's old district.  Most of Shuler's best counties save his home county (Madison, Yancey, and most of Buncombe, including all of Asheville) are now in Foxx's district, replaced by Rutherford, Burke, Cleveland from McHenry's district.  If McHenry isn't brave enough to take on the challenge, well, he can move to the lavender district.  

[dpmapper]

Where does Shuler live? Is it possible to throw him into a 57% McCain district with an R incumbent?

Yes:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127790.msg2731457#msg2731457

[dpmapper]

There are some leftists already talking about primarying McIntyre over his promise to vote for HCR repeal. If you throw him in a 60% Obama district, hopefully he party switches and runs in Kissell's district.

I personally think Johnny has nailed it, though.

Wouldn't this argue for leaving McIntyre's district at roughly even?  If he gets primaried in a 60% Obama district, you get 4 liberals rather than 3, but if he gets primaried in a <50% Obama district (which is less likely) then the GOP has a pretty good shot of picking up the seat. 

[dpmapper]

Well, then 3 districts (whomever beats Kissell, Ellmers, and Jones) are all weaker.

Not that much weaker.  You can spread out the hit across all of the GOP districts with the right domino effect.  Average 56-57% to 55-56%, basically.  

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Well, with 240 Republicans it really doesn't matter whether there is a 241st.  But you still try, right?    (And there are only 240 Republicans this congress.  Who knows what happens later in the decade?)  

McIntyre is actually more conservative than the average representative (GOP *or* Dem)  one would get from this district, according to 538's rough calculations.  

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/12/2009s-most-valuable-democrat-is.html  

I'm also of the opinion that it's pretty useful to have Democrats that vote conservative more often than not, since it gives a bipartisan veneer to things.  Having Boren and McIntyre voting for repeal of the PPACA would be much bigger than if they were replaced by two GOP members that also voted for repeal.  

[dpmapper]

I got my NC-01 up to 53%.  

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127790.msg2731457#msg2731457

[dpmapper]

Now that the House vote on repeal of the PPACA is in, a few things clear up:

* Larry Kissell really can't make up his mind whether he's more afraid of the wrath of Pelosi (and/or a primary challenger) or a GOP opponent (he switched his vote in the middle of the vote).  I'm sure the Republicans will try to make him pay dearly. 

* Shuler will be in hot water once Asheville is removed from his district and he's left with just rural, white counties.  They might be ancestrally Democratic, but not enough to be pro-ObamaCare. 

* If there is to be a fourth Dem left standing beyond Price, Watt, and Butterfield, the GOP should want it to be McIntyre. 

* McIntyre will almost certainly get a strong primary challenge if his district is made safe Dem. 

With all that, I'm even more firmly convinced that it's best for Pubbies to leave McIntyre's district at around 50-1% McCain.  There's no reason to give liberals one more seat in exchange for bumping a few GOP seats from 55 to 56.  Besides, it makes the map look reasonably respectable. 

[dpmapper]

If you don't mind a really ugly NC-01, this is about the best pack you can get:



NC-01, in green, is 53% black, 72% Obama.  That figure isn't the absolute best possible, but not including Raleigh or Durham allows NC-04, in reddish brown, to go up to 74% Obama (32% black).  Watt's NC-12 is 78% Obama with just a shade over 50% black.  

The other districts:
Jones, in purple: 57-42 McCain
Ellmers, in tan: 57-42 McCain
McIntyre, in blue: 53-46 McCain.
Kissell, in orange: 56-43 McCain.  
open district in pink: 56-43 McCain.
Coble, in yellow: 56-43 McCain.
Foxx, in red: 58-41 McCain.
Myrick, in light green: 55-44 McCain (this is actually better than her current district)
McHenry, in grey: 55-43 McCain.
Shuler, pink: 58-40 McCain.  

Whether Fayetteville + other small cities + rural north is a valid community of interest, I have no idea...

[dpmapper]

Ack, forgot to use the new populations again!  Thankfully it doesn't change all that much.  



Jones (tan) 56-43
McIntyre (dark blue) 53-46
Ellmers  (light blue) 56-43
open (pink) 55-44
Coble (yellow) 56-43
Kissell (orange) 56-43
Foxx (red) 57-42
Myrick (grey) 55-44
McHenry (green) 57-42
Shuler (purple) 58-41

Dem districts are at 80% Obama (Watt), 75% (Price), 69% (Butterfield), with black percentages at 52, 32, 51 respectively.  Has anyone gotten better than 75+69?  

[dpmapper]

I don't get it, why would they want to end NC-12? It's a Dem vote sink; if they contract it to Charlotte, they still have to do something with Greensboro and Winston-Salem.

I don't think they can get 50% black by just staying in Mecklenburg...

However, it is possible to expand NC-12 more into East Charlotte (taking in Kissell's Charlotte areas) while still preserving the strip up to W-S/Greensboro.  Right now the connecting precincts are unnecessarily wide (probably because the Dems were trying to use it to soak up Republicans).  My guess is that's what they're doing, and using the talk of "only two districts in Mecklenburg" as cover.  

ETA: something like this should work: 50.3% black VAP.  



The Winston-Salem areas should shrink since Foxx's district probably won't have much else to worry about.  Watt takes most of Miller's Greensboro precincts and Kissell's Charlotte precincts instead.  Of course, now you're splitting a lot of the connector counties three ways rather than two.  But maybe you can convince some friendly county clerks to chop some precincts so that you can snake it up there via touch-point contiguity (and low-population connecting precincts, so that little is wasted). 

[dpmapper]

I don't think the GOP will mind keeping McIntyre.  The most important vote that might be upcoming will be the one to repeal Obamacare (assuming Obama loses in 2012, which from a conservative policy point of view, you may as well assume, since if he doesn't, everything [and I mean everything] is pretty much shot), and McIntyre's with them on that.  Shuler and Kissell aren't. 

[dpmapper]

Is it really worth snaking Watt's district up to the Triad if it's only going to take in Winston-Salem? Some of those voting districts you're sending it through have a lot of GOP votes in them.  

Also, I don't know how blue your McIntyre district is, but I think it's worth making sure that he is safe from being primaried (or that, if he is, the Republicans have a shot at the seat).  He's been a pretty good Dem to have around, in terms of voting record.  

ETA: And surely Foxx's district can be unpacked a little more... the way you have it, it seems almost stronger GOP than it is now. 

[dpmapper]

Is it really worth snaking Watt's district up to the Triad if it's only going to take in Winston-Salem? Some of those voting districts you're sending it through have a lot of GOP votes in them.  

Maybe, but the current district does the same thing, and Winston-Salem Democrats have to go somewhere.

The current district takes in not just W-S, but also much of High Point and Greensboro.  Here's the old one together with a potential new Watt district:

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How? The only district it can take Democrats from is Watt's.

[/quote]

Well, if you keep Watt's the way krazen has it, you could put High Point in it pretty easily.  Or you could use Foxx's district as the one to stuff Asheville into, and have McHenry take some of west Charlotte. 

[dpmapper]

It continues into there (though the percentage declines), so the three counties belong together. I'd consider it stomachable if they'd just split them from Robeson rather than splitting Robeson itself, though.

The D's split the three counties last go-around.  And the way Robeson is split now, the southeast part is all that's in McIntyre's district, and that's the part where the Lumbee population is at its smallest (precincts ~10-20% Native American).  So I don't see that it's that much more outrageous - the main center of Native American population gets split from the relatively few in SE Robeson but gains the ones in Hoke/Scotland.