US House Redistricting: Colorado

[Verily]

My guess is they'll probably throw DeGette or Perlmutter under the bus to satisfy the VRA, and keep the status quo everywhere else.

VRA doesn't have to toss either DeGette or Perlmutter. Unlocking the Hispanic vote may actually help the Democrats, as it forces the split of Denver, and white Denver is as Democratic as Hispanic Denver.

[Verily]

Here's a map of Colorado, designed to return one of the two seats lost this year to the Democrats while making everyone else safe (although CO-03 is not so Democratic that its current incumbent would have to simply surrender). Seems like what the Democrats would probably do.

CO-04 is contiguous across Cameron Pass between Larimer and Jackson Counties. This should not be controversial. Cameron Pass is in fact easier and more often open in winter than the very difficult Berthoud Pass between Clear Creek and Grand Counties that is the only route connecting the two parts of CO-02 on the current map.

The map also minimizes county splits.

[Verily]

It would of course be highly controversial anyways.

It would be if the current Rep for CO-03 lived in Grand Junction. He doesn't, though, he lives in Cortez. So he'd be annoyed about having his seat become very vulnerable, but the Mormons would probably prefer being with the eastern plains than with the ski bunnies and Hispanics, anyway, since it guarantees them a Republican representative.

Realized Perlmutter lives in Golden, though. WTF, move. That means Jefferson County has to have even nastier splits.

[Verily]

CO-03 needs extra population somewhere; that's why it expands into Jefferson County. If the actual Census numbers allow it to stay out of Jefferson, that would be great.

[Verily]

Districts need to be of equal populations. Your CO-05 and CO-06 are way oversized while CO-03 is way undersized.

[Verily]

Boulder has very high Independent registration. Don't be fooled; they all vote straight-ticket Democrat (and are probably registered Independent because the Democrats aren't liberal enough). CO-02 is still extremely safe. I am a little curious on the Longmont/Loveland decision. Loveland is a lot more Republican than Longmont (which is around 55% Obama while Loveland is more like 55% McCain), yet they put Longmont in the Republican district and Loveland in the Democratic district. Nothing like inertia, I guess.

It does move CO-07 a couple of points towards the GOP, but Perlmutter is quite safe and personally popular, and that area is trending Democratic regardless.

[Verily]

Anyway, here's a Democratic gerrymander that goes way above and beyond Lewis's efforts (although for only a few more Democratic points in some seats):

CO-01: 60-37 Obama
CO-02: 63-34 Obama
CO-03: 58-39 Obama
CO-04: 34-63 McCain
CO-05: 36-62 McCain
CO-06: 60-37 Obama
CO-07: 62-35 Obama

I also took into account some other pressures that would exist on the Democrats if they did split Denver. CO-07 is 37% Hispanic (32% Hispanic VAP), not the highest that could be achieved in the Denver area but still quite concentrated. Additionally, CO-06 concentrates the black vote and the remaining Hispanic vote to be 25% Hispanic and 13% black, though still 52% white (on VAP, 57% white, 13% black, 21% Hispanic). As the remaining whites in the district are fairly Republican, this is a pretty decent minority opportunity seat. As a result, whites in the Denver area are packed into CO-01, which is 78% white (81% on VAP).

Maps follow.

State:



Colorado Springs and Pueblo:



Denver area:



Fort Collins and Greeley:

[Verily]

I don't understand the whole point of making CO-06 and CO-07 competitive when it's clearly a favor for the DEM, or will trend their way in the future.  Don't you think it would be fair to make CO-06 lean REP or something.

CO-06 does not at all favor the Democrats. It's marginal.

Consider. Colorado is more Democratic (barely) than the nation as a whole. There are, on this map, two solidly Democratic seats (CO-01 and CO-02), two solidly Republican seats (CO-04 and CO-05), one lean Republican seat (CO-03), one lean Democratic seat (CO-07) and one marginal seat (CO-06). That's pretty close to the "appropriate" result. If CO-06 leaned towards the Republicans, the map would be biased towards the Republicans as it would produce more Republican than Democratic seats despite the state being marginally more Democratic than Republican.