US House Redistricting: Colorado (user search)
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  US House Redistricting: Colorado (search mode)
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Colorado  (Read 26788 times)
Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
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« on: November 09, 2010, 09:27:15 PM »

My guess is they'll probably throw DeGette or Perlmutter under the bus to satisfy the VRA, and keep the status quo everywhere else.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2010, 10:08:29 PM »

My guess is they'll probably throw DeGette or Perlmutter under the bus to satisfy the VRA, and keep the status quo everywhere else.

VRA doesn't have to toss either DeGette or Perlmutter. Unlocking the Hispanic vote may actually help the Democrats, as it forces the split of Denver, and white Denver is as Democratic as Hispanic Denver.

Alternatively, they could try to get a GOP crossover vote to make CO-03 (Salazar's former district) the majority Hispanic district.  It would require some dealmaking, but it's certainly possible if the GOP is worried about Denver. 

I don't think that's even possible- I've tried it. There aren't as many Hispanics in that area as you might think.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2010, 07:06:06 PM »

Is it even possible to create a majority Hispanic Denver district? I went into Weld county and still got stuck in the 40s.

Well, you do have to go into Weld County, and be rather selective of what precincts you put in, but it is possible. The district in the picture below is 51.14% Hispanic, and I'm certain there's room for improvement.

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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2010, 04:05:19 PM »

Not likely. Now the second myth here is that drawing such a seat would hurt any incumbent Democrats. Drawing majority-minority seats only hurts the Democrats if the minorities are solidly Democratic and the white vote is solidly Republican. Since this is obviously true in the south where most such seats are, some people get the idea that's the case everywhere, but you are not throwing any Democrat under the bus by taking Hispanic areas out of their district and replacing them with white Denver liberals. It's not like the racially gerrymandered seats in New York City have resulted in any Republicans getting elected for example.

This is quite true. In my experience drawing Colorado maps with a Hispanic-majority district, it seems like such a map would actually benefit the Democrats, because of the split in Denver. Perlmutter can be shored up by removing the exurban parts of his district in favor of the white part of Denver. The same principle can be applied to weaken Coffman.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
Vazdul
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2011, 12:29:15 PM »

FWIW, Wasserman is skeptical about how much of a win for the Democrats the adopted map is.

I agree. I don't see it as a terribly great map.

Right. Why settle for 3+1 when you can have 5?



1st 72.5, 2nd 58.9, 3rd 55.6, 4th 34.3, 5th 42.0, 6th 57.1, 7th 57.0 Obama.

I'm sure it could be optimized further.



Zoom in on the Denver area, please.
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