US House Redistricting: Colorado

[Skill and Chance]

The GOP took back the two rural districts and now holds a 4-3 advantage in the delegation for the 2011 session.  The Dems have Governor Hickenlooper and the State Senate, but the GOP took the State House (by 1 vote).  To make things even more contentious, they are probably due for a VRA Hispanic district after the 2010 Census.  What sort of map do you think they will agree upon?

[Skill and Chance]

My guess is they'll probably throw DeGette or Perlmutter under the bus to satisfy the VRA, and keep the status quo everywhere else.

VRA doesn't have to toss either DeGette or Perlmutter. Unlocking the Hispanic vote may actually help the Democrats, as it forces the split of Denver, and white Denver is as Democratic as Hispanic Denver.

Alternatively, they could try to get a GOP crossover vote to make CO-03 (Salazar's former district) the majority Hispanic district.  It would require some dealmaking, but it's certainly possible if the GOP is worried about Denver.